North Korean Military.

[STURM]

''The South African Defence Forces in the Border War 1966-1989'' [Leopold Scholtz]. They were under political pressure to stop their involvement in Angola and to grant independence to South West Africa but they would have become more politically isolated had they used their nuclear devices. Apparently, prior to using their nukes; they would have first informed the U.S. and Britain and conducted an underground test as a warning.

North Korea's actions are political as in they are intended for a specific purpose not as part of a long drawn ''socialist'' plan to destroy ''imperialist'' America or to seek revenge for the Korea War. The idea that they are expected to cease nuke development and testing without receiving anything in return is gagaland thinking. The problem is the lack of trust on the part of the U.S. [which the North Korean shares a lot of blame for] towards North Korea but which also applies to the North Koreans. In their insecure, paranoid minds they are surrounded by U.S. allies and U.S. troops [this is true] whose ultimate purpose is regime change. Just like how the Soviet leadership at various points during the Cold War were convinced that NATO was close to launching an unprovoked attack; the North Koreans are convinced that regime change is what awaits them if they show weakness.

 

[John Fedup]

@Sturm, thanks for the book reference.

 

[Feanor]

It's certainly in China's interests for both Korea's to remain divided but increased tensions - like what we have now - do not benefit China. The Chinese want to focus on the economy and other areas such the South China Sea; they don't want to be distracted by a conflict in Korea.

Or the opposite. A conflict in Korea to divert attention away from their continued actions in the SCS, essentially cementing their de-facto gains.

 

[John Fedup]

Pretty risky diversion plan considering the rather muted response to their SCS adventures so far.

 

[STURM]

Back in the 1999 on one of the forums I remember someone painting a very unlikely scenario but one that would have caused the U.S. a lot of problems - at least in the short term. Saddam massing troops along the Kuwaiti border, China getting aggressive with Taiwan and North Korea getting up to mischief by missile tests or some thing else; simultaneously at a time when the U.S. was involved in Kosovo.

The good news is that the ''bad'' chaps never coordinated their efforts :]

 

[John Fedup]

For years I believe the US considered they needed the ability to fight two major wars simultaneously. I don't think the 17 years in one arena and the 12-13 years in then out then back again effort with regards to Iraq was envisioned. Perhaps when the US accounted for over 50% of the world's GDP this was doable (questionable actually) but now with 25%, it simply is not sustainable.

 

[colay1]

Translation : "I'm very happy to shamelessly take credit for work initiated by my predecessor."
Trump has ordered a review of the US strategic deterrent. Among many other reviews/studies/commissions that he equates to actual achievement of objectives to energize his base.

 

[John Fedup]

As a novice pollie he is has learned one political skill, BS does baffle brains.

Then again, BS is important in the casino and relastate too I guess.

 

[Tsavo Lion]

Kim Jong Un doesn't need to strike Guam — he's already won
The game is over. DPRK defeated the United States What will the war in the East look like?
“Fire & Fury” or “Shock and Awe”: it is always the start of a Quagmire
The past regime changes weren't cheap but this 1, if carried out, will beat them all!
I wonder, if NK uses its ICBMs on steep trajectories instead of IRBMs against Guam, will BMD means of Japan & US be able to shoot them down just as well?
Edit: North Korea Does Not Trust America for a Pretty Good Reason
Trump's mix of threats and secret talks with NK are 'coercive diplomacy 101'
A New Korean War Would Quickly Escalate
B-1 Bombers Key to a US Plan to Strike North Korean Missile Sites US B-1 bombers ready if called upon by Trump
'Fight tonight?' Trump's retweet says US bombers are ready to strike NK It's a replay of 2 CVNs sailing off NK. Brandishing weapons won't work with most Asians, period! Besides human enemies, Koreans were terrorized by Amur (Siberian, the largest in the World) leopards & tigers for millennia, & that shaped their character.
Russian PVO in the Far East in increased combat readiness
Russia touts "plan" with China to ease US-N. Korea standoff
Japan ordered the deployment of AD systems due to the NK missile threat
US, North Korea Have Few Channels Through Which to Resolve Crises
Guam Governor Shrugs Off North Korea's Mid-August Strike Plan
Key Trump Administration Figures Shaping the North Korea Debate
China to remain 'neutral' if North Korea attacks first, but

“If the U.S. and South Korea carry out strikes and try to overthrow the North Korean regime and change the political pattern of the Korean Peninsula, China will prevent them from doing so.” That’s because Beijing does not want to see a unified Korean state allied to the United States on its border: Indeed, hundreds of thousands of Chinese soldiers died during the 1950-53 Korean War to prevent that from happening.

 

[STURM]

Apologies, double post.

 

[STURM]

As I've pointed out previously, the U.S can't undertake actions against North Korea with taking into account what China will do. China is too powerful and important a player for the U.S. ignore. It's not like Iraq and Afghanistan where the U.S. could do as it wanted without worrying what others will do. A Chinese daily has state that China will remain neutral of North Korea strikes first Andrew U.S. retaliates (a smart move) but if the U.S. and South Korea strike first and attempt regime change; China would not let that happen.

This is to be expected given that the Korean peninsular is in China's backyard and is a warning to the U.S. as well as aimed at the South Koreans who - understandably - are worried that the U.S. might over reacts. This also shows that unlike the U.S. which is obliged to aid treaty allies - even if those allies are in the wrong and are doing things contrary to U.S. interests - that China has not placed itself under a similar predicament.

 

[Tsavo Lion]

North Korea Does Not Trust America for a Pretty Good Reason
Trump's mix of threats and secret talks with NK are 'coercive diplomacy 101'
A New Korean War Would Quickly Escalate
B-1 Bombers Key to a US Plan to Strike North Korean Missile Sites US B-1 bombers ready if called upon by Trump
'Fight tonight?' Trump's retweet says US bombers are ready to strike NK It's a replay of 2 CVNs sailing off NK. Brandishing weapons won't work with most Asians, period! Besides human enemies, Koreans were terrorized by Amur (Siberian, the largest in the World) leopards & tigers for millennia, & that shaped their character.
Russian PVO in the Far East in increased combat readiness
Russia touts "plan" with China to ease US-N. Korea standoff
Japan ordered the deployment of AD systems due to the NK missile threat
US, North Korea Have Few Channels Through Which to Resolve Crises
Guam Governor Shrugs Off North Korea's Mid-August Strike Plan
Key Trump Administration Figures Shaping the North Korea Debate
China to remain 'neutral' if North Korea attacks first, but

“If the U.S. and South Korea carry out strikes and try to overthrow the North Korean regime and change the political pattern of the Korean Peninsula, China will prevent them from doing so.” That’s because Beijing does not want to see a unified Korean state allied to the United States on its border: Indeed, hundreds of thousands of Chinese soldiers died during the 1950-53 Korean War to prevent that from happening.

 

[STURM]

''Beijing does not want to see a unified Korean state allied to the United States on its border: Indeed, hundreds of thousands of Chinese soldiers died during the 1950-53 Korean War to prevent that from happening.''

Yes and a whole lot of civilians; in a war started by North Korea when it invaded the South. MacArthur later reportedly wanted to drop nukes on China with Truman refusing.

 

[Tsavo Lion]

Yes and a whole lot of civilians; in a war started by North Korea when it invaded the South.

The US & SK too killed, directly & indirectly, many civilians during that "Police Action":

In popular myth on June 25, 1950 the North Korean Army suddenly attacked without warning, overwhelming surprised ROK defenders. In fact the entire 38th Parallel had been progressively militarized and there had been numerous cross border incursions by both sides going back to 1949. On numerous occasions Syngman Rhee had to be restrained by American advisers from invading the north. The Korean civil war was all but inevitable. Given postwar American plans for access globally to resources, markets and cheaper labor power any form of national liberation, communist or liberal democratic, was to be opposed. In 1948 guerrilla war broke out against the Rhee regime on the southern island of Cheju, the population of which ultimately rose in wholesale revolt. The suppression of the rebellion was guided by many American agents soon to become part of the Central Intelligence Agency and by military advisers. Eventually the entire population was removed to the coast and kept in guarded compounds and between 20,000 and 30,000 villagers died.
The orders for the executions “undoubtedly came from the top”, which was dictator Syngman Rhee, the “US-installed” puppet, and the US itself, which “controlled South Korea’s military.” After the war, the US helped try to cover up these executions, an effort that largely succeeded until the 1990s.
..MacArthur “..ordered airstrikes to lay waste thousands of square miles of northern Korea bordering China.." It was .. this bombing campaign, ..that to this day dominates North Korea’s relations with the United States and drives its determination never to submit to any American diktat.
General Curtis Lemay directed this onslaught. It was he who had firebombed Tokyo in March 1945... It was he who later said that the US “ought to bomb North Vietnam back into the stone age.” Remarking about his desire to lay waste to North Korea he said “We burned down every town in North Korea and South Korea too.” ..Lemay estimated the US “killed off” some “20% of the [North Korean] population.” (For comparison, the highest percentage of population lost in World War II was in Poland, which lost approximately 16.93 to 17.22% of its people overall.) Dean Rusk, who later became a Secretary of State, said the US targeted and attempted to execute every person “that moved” in North Korea,..”
Boggs gives many examples of mass atrocities, one taking place in 1950 when the US rounded up “nearly 1,000 civilians” who were then “beaten, tortured, and shot to death by US troops”, another in Pyongyang when the US summarily executed 3,000 people, “mostly women and children”, and another when the US executed some 6,000 civilians, many with machine guns, many by beheading them with sabres. ..In 1951 the U.S. initiated “Operation Strangle”, which officials estimated killed at least 3 million people on both sides of the 38th parallel, but the figure is probably closer to 4 million [“mostly civilians” and “mostly resulting from US aerial bombardments” in which civilians “were deliberately targeted”.., as were “schools, hospitals, and churches”... Estimates for the death toll also go “much higher” than 4 million. ..In the Spring of 1953 US warplanes hit five of the largest dams along the Yalu river completely inundating and killing Pyongyang’s harvest of rice. ..Flash floods scooped out hundreds of square miles of vital food producing valleys and killed untold numbers of farmers. At Nuremberg after WWII, Nazi officers who carried out similar attacks on the dikes of Holland, creating a mass famine in 1944, were tried as criminals and some were executed for their crimes.
Atwood concludes it is “the collective memory” of the above “that animates North Korea’s policies toward the US today”. Under no circumstances could any westerner reasonably expect … that the North Korean regime would simply submit to any ultimatums by the US, by far the worst enemy Korea ever had measured by the damage inflicted on the entirety of the Korean peninsula.

 

[t68]

The US & SK too killed, directly & indirectly, many civilians during that "Police Action":

Tell me in modern warfare how is the civil population not going to get caught in any fighting, it near impossible. The fact is I was the north who instigated the original Korean war and the Chinese only got involved to protect their own interest nothing has changed since 1950.

 

[Rimasta]

And while their actions towards south Korea are debatably not that bad

Err, I suppose if you omit the North Korean invasion during the 50's, decades of tensions, cross border skirmishes, assassinations, kidnapping, the sinking a South Korean Corvette, an artillery attack a few years ago, planting land mines on the ROK's side of the Z then yeah, I suppose that'd be accurate. But that's omitting a lot.
U.S. forces are only there in the first place because of the first Korean War, so without their initial aggression, there likely wouldn't be tens of thousands of American troops there.

 

[colay1]

Both sides need to call time out and have a cooling off period. China and Russia propose suspension of the joint US-ROK exercise at the end of August in exchange for a suspension of missile tests. They seem to think they can get KJU on board bu the US has said it's not interested.

Why shouldn't this be pursued? It would not indicate a softening of the US commitment to the ROK. But it would put the put the brakes on tests, give both sides an excuse to back away from the Guam scenario and possibly open the door to further, more substantive talks. Slow down the escalation in tensions between 2 unstable egomaniacs.

If NK reneged then resume the joint exercises.

 

[Tsavo Lion]

It's not simply getting caught in fighting aka "collateral damage"; as sources I posted show, there was deliberate targeting of civilians & their infrastructure, just like more recently in Yugoslavia & Iraq. Some may & did argue that Spain provoked the US to invade & annex Florida & Mexico did the same to be invaded by the US, resulting in the Mexican Cession- does it mean they are right?
Kim isn't any worse than Franco, Pinochet, Duvalier, Suharto, Somoza, Marcos, Mao, Stalin, Saddam, & the Shah- all of whom were either supported/allied/been peacefully dealt with, or both.

 

[STURM]

I would be very surprised if the U.S. was willing to consider the China/Russia initiative. Whilst I do agree that both sides have to make compromises and that it's not only North Korea that feels threatened; I don't see the U.S. agreeing to scale back exercises. What the Chinese could do to reassure the North Koreans would be to hold joint exercises with the North Koreans. The Americans naturally would not be happy and we'd hear cliches like "this is not a step in the right direction" but the Chinese could point out that bilateral exercises are intended to reassure the jittery and insecure North Koreans.

The recent statement that China will not allow regime change is music to the ears of the North Korean leadership and a reminder to the Americans they can't have everything their way; not unless they're willing to risk ties or worst with China over North Korea.

Tsavo Lion,

Marcos and the Shah were not as responsible for large numbers of civilian deaths as the others in your list. No doubt Marcos and the Shah weren't very nice chaps with regards to human rights but we can't compare them to the likes of Saddam. With regards to civilian deaths in the Korean War, I wasn't suggesting that only the North Koreans were responsible or had blood on their hands but they did start the war by invading the South.

 

[colay1]

Tillerson strikes a more conciliatory tone. Stop testing and the US is willing to talk. But Trump is enjoying talking tough with Hollywood dialogue and is enjoying a rise in his approval ratings ie. up to 45% in one poll. So things are confusing with mixed messages coming from the US.
China may want to seize the opportunity and nudge KJU to take up Tillerson's offer.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-northkorea-missiles-idUSKBN1AN054