North Korean Military.

[John Fedup]

Why would they have made a premature on move on North Korea when it's not to their advantage? Given that the Chinese are concerned about a breakup of North Korea and the possibility that North Korea could undertake moves that directly threaten China's interests; I'd be very surprised if they didn't have plans to rapidly move troops into the country or to gain control of North Korea's nukes by a coup de main.

Why, because making a move BEFORE they completed their nuke and ICBM seems to me a safer bet than doing so afterwards! How is a nuclear NK in China's interest?

China has more or less mirrored the US with a do nothing approach./quote]

Nothing could be further from the truth. China has been doing its way; which differs from the way the Americans go about doing things. It has - time and time again - publicly expressed its displeasure with the North Koreans and taken several measures.

Basically the same as numerous US administrations with the same results.

What else is China expected to do? If it ceases all trade with North Korea - trade which existed way before the current crisis - will the U.S. compensate China?

How's this for compensation for lost NK trade, China still gets to trade with the US or do you think their stellar trade with NK is more important?

Easy to say that China isn't doing much when it's North Korea on China's backyard and if millions of North refugees pour into China it won't be U.S. helping with funds or deploying ''boots on the ground'' to deal with [to use another cliche] ''the mother of all '' humanitarian operations.

It is more likely the refugees will be pouring into SK not China. As for aid, the US and Asian allies would help IMO.

 

[gazzzwp]

Does anyone have any idea exactly what Donald means by this:

"My first order as President was to renovate and modernize our nuclear arsenal. It is now far stronger and more powerful than ever before," Trump tweeted. "Hopefully we will never have to use this power, but there will never be a time that we are not the most powerful nation in the world!"

U.S. Defense Secretary Mattis issues stark warning to North Korea | Reuters

It just strikes me that the few months he has been in power is not a long time to be carrying out significant technical upgrades. Does he mean that the US has resurrected or enabled old stocks of weapons?

 

[STURM]

Why, because making a move BEFORE they completed their nuke and ICBM seems to me a safer bet than doing so afterwards! How is a nuclear NK in China's interest?

North Korea is already a nuclear state, that's a fact. Maintaining the status quo is in China's interests; not a war that will achieve nothing. Going with your argument, a war with a country that already has nukes, to prevent it from eventually developing nuke armed ICBMs is justified even though it might lead to the deaths of thousands if not millions in a number of countries; not to mention the economic, effects is justified? Also, despite the rhetoric and beating of war drums just how ready is the U.S. for a full scale conflict in the Korean peninsular given it already has massive commitments elsewhere and that South Korea has been urging restraint.

How's this for compensation for lost NK trade, China still gets to trade with the US or do you think their stellar trade with NK is more important?

Look at the bigger picture. North Korea is in China's backyard, completely severing economic ties with it might please Uncle Sam but might lead to instability in North Korea which will not be in China's interests. Also how long will it take for U.S. trade to compensate for whatever China has lost be severing all economic ties with North Korea?

Basically the same as numerous US administrations with the same results.

I can also point out that there has been peace in the Korean peninsular for decades; no doubt the U.S. military deterrent and the desire of North Korea's leadership to stay in power played a big role but so did China's efforts both publicly and behind the scenes to rein in the North Koreans.

It is more likely the refugees will be pouring into SK not China. As for aid, the US and Asian allies would help IMO.

If there's a land war, the threat to the North Koreans will come primarily from the south. For much of North Korea's population the obvious direction for them to escape the fighting will be to the north rather than heading south towards where the fighting is. As for help from Uncle Sam and other countries there is always the possibility but the Chinese can't base their calculations on whether external assistance will materialise or not. Assuming there's no war but the country - for whatever reason - breaks apart, do you really see South Korea and the U.S. allowing large numbers of North Korean refugees across the DMZ?

Does he mean that the US has resurrected or enabled old stocks of weapons?

I have no idea what he meant : the question is whether he actually knows what he meant.

 

[swerve]

It is more likely the refugees will be pouring into SK not China. As for aid, the US and Asian allies would help IMO.

Between north & south Korea there are electric fences & minefields & if there's a war, there'll be two huge armies throwing a hell of a lot of explosives at each other from coast to coast. If I was North Korean I'd run away from that area, not towards it. That's the direction refugees generally go: away from the fighting.

 

[swerve]

The policy of doing nothing because there are no good options has finally come back to bite the US and the local neighbours in the a$$. Five to ten years ago a first strike could have ended the NK regime and likely this would have caused a $hitstorm.

More than a shitstorm. At the very least, tens of thousands of dead South Koreans, & very likely hundreds of thousands. Would you give that order? Do you think any S. Korean leader would agree to it?

 

[STURM]

The policy of doing nothing because there are no good options has finally come back to bite the US and the local neighbours in the a$$. Five to ten years ago a first strike could have ended the NK regime and likely this would have caused a $hitstorm.

Is doing something despite having '' no good options'' a better alternative than ''doing nothing''?

Might as well go for a mainland US city because either target will result in a counter strike that will be an extinction event for NK.

Plus the possibility of radiation spreading to China, Russia, South Korea,Taiwan and elsewhere. The fact remains that the main agenda for North Korea is regime survival; they have no intention of striking anything unless they're convinced they're under direct threat as they're fully aware of the consequences. Their nukes are intended for regime survival by a regime that feels threatened and insecure [with good reason], not for contesting America hegemony or any other purpose.

 

[colay1]

There apparently is evidence that China is actually directly supporting the NK missile program though. Those are claimed to be modern Chinese-made TELARs piggybacking NK ICBMs being paraded thru the streets of Pyonyang.

I think China is playing both sides against each other to enhance it's importance as THE essential player. It would ne prudent for them to have contingencies in place to deal with NK if things begin to threaten China's interests. At least I hope so.

 

[Tsavo Lion]

North Korea: fire, fury and fear:

Western corporate media would hardly refrain from metastasizing pure speculation into a “North Korea has miniaturized nuclear weapons” frenzy consuming the cable news cycle/ newspaper headlines. ..
Three reminders.
1) Beware of an engineered false flag, to be blamed on Pyongyang; that would be the perfect pretext for war.
2) The current narrative is eerily similar to the usual suspects blaring since forever that Iran is a heartbeat away from “building a nuclear weapon”.
3) North Korea holds trillions of US dollars in unexplored mineral wealth. Watch the shadow play by candidates bound to profit from such juicy loot.

Just recently many doubted that NK succedded in building them; but even if not yet, in time NK will have miniaturized warheads. Trump is also upset about not getting Iraq oil & Afghan mineral contracts; perhaps he hopes to "kill 2 birds with 1 stone" this time? As I said before, in general, most Americans don't hold much value for Asian lives now, as they had for Native American lives in the past. Read the whole thing: https://ria.ru/world/20170809/1500101093.html
Trump’s ‘Fire and Fury’ Threat Raises Alarm in Asia
Trump wanted negotiate like crazy to stopNK
https://riafan.ru/908496-golyi-korol-zachem-tramp-raskhvalivaet-yadernyi-arsenal-ssha
What Is Guam And Why Is North Korea Threatening It? : The Two-Way : NPR
https://regnum.ru/news/polit/2308711.html

 

[STURM]

I think China is playing both sides against each other to enhance it's importance as THE essential player. It would ne prudent for them to have contingencies in place to deal with NK if things begin to threaten China's interests. At least I hope so.

It's certainly in China's interests for both Korea's to remain divided but increased tensions - like what we have now - do not benefit China. The Chinese want to focus on the economy and other areas such the South China Sea; they don't want to be distracted by a conflict in Korea. If China really wanted to checkmate Uncle Sam, it could announce that North Korea is in China's sphere of influence and that although it does not support or condone North Korea's recent actions; any unprovoked attack on that country would lead to China having no option but to resort to certain measures.... What would Uncle Sam do then?

Another way China could cause problems would be during any future crisis over Taiwan or the South China Sea. To distract the Americans and force them to divide their resources the Chinese could get the North Koreans to misbehave.

 

[colay1]

I think China is taking the long view that things will eventually wind up in some form of negotiations, likely multi-lateral and without preconditions. Any other outcome, including the escalating military posturing is destabilizing and imperils it's interests.
Obviously it seeks to maximize concessions specially from the US, Japan and SK for any positive role it would play.
OTOH KJU will continue to accept covert Chinese aid while continuing to purge any perceived to have ties to China.

 

[Sandhi Yudha]

Update: https://nos.nl/artikel/2187301-noord-korea-vier-raketten-richting-guam-gepland.html
A North-Korean general just made an announcement that they have a plan to prepare four missiles for Guam. They only have to finish the plan and present it to Kim Yong Un. After that they just wait for his instructions to come in action.

The general also tells that the missiles will fly over Japan and land 30-40 kilometers from Guam, as a warning to the US.

Well, I think that the US doesn't see this as a warning but as a threat and the signal to strike immediately and ro try to wipe out North Korea's nuclear facilities.

 

[STURM]

Sandi Yudha,

If the Americans think they have to, they will strike but there's no certainty that strikes will really damage North Korea's nuclear facilities. It is for certain however that the North Koreans will retaliate. Putting aside all the horrible consequences rhat a full scale war will entail, are the Americans who are already busy playing the world's policeman in Europe and the Miiddle East ready for a full scale war in Asia? Also, have American dependents in South Korea been evacuated yet? There is also the question of whether China will just sit back and watch if North Korea is sent back to the Stone Age.

Colay,

The Chinese understand that the North Koreans are doing what they are doing due to insecurity yet some make it sound as if only the Americans feel threatened. The Chinese also understand that the whole purpose of the North Koreans trying to get ICBMs is to strengthen their position in any future talks; not a burning desire to kill Americans.

 

[t68]

. The Chinese also understand that the whole purpose of the North Koreans trying to get ICBMs is to strengthen their position in any future talks; not a burning desire to kill Americans.

kill the rhetoric and people may listen.keep threating and all people hear are the threats and respond in kind

 

[STURM]

Indeed but from a North Korean perspective, the only thing that kept the current leadership in power all these years is the fact that they have nukes. The fact remains that to reduce tensions and avoid a war requires steps to be taken by all sides: not just the North Koreans.

 

[Geddy]

Does anyone have any idea exactly what Donald means by this:

"My first order as President was to renovate and modernize our nuclear arsenal. It is now far stronger and more powerful than ever before," Trump tweeted. "Hopefully we will never have to use this power, but there will never be a time that we are not the most powerful nation in the world!"

U.S. Defense Secretary Mattis issues stark warning to North Korea | Reuters

It just strikes me that the few months he has been in power is not a long time to be carrying out significant technical upgrades. Does he mean that the US has resurrected or enabled old stocks of weapons?

He doesn't mean anything. It's another ridiculous statement backed by nothing solid, in other words, a lie. There have been no changes or upgrades to the US nuclear aresnal. I don't think you should take Trump's statements as based in truth, or for serious consideration.

http://www.latimes.com/politics/washington/la-na-essential-washington-updates-trump-makes-false-claims-about-u-s-1502296243-htmlstory.html

 

[the concerned]

If ultimately the US decide to strike first but also consider nuclear weapons as a option how would they be able to strike North Korea without causing the Russians and Chinese to consider the launch a attack on them

 

[John Fedup]

Short answer is nukes would be likely not be used in any first strike. If NK were to use theirs, then the US would respond with theirs. China and Russia would then have to weigh the plus and minus of getting directly involved against the US. They have other safer responses than direct military involvement.

 

[John Fedup]

This article discusses one possibility for a pre-emotive strike using B-1B bombers. This bomber is preferred because of its large weapons load and the fact it can not carry nuclear bombs. Whether this limitation would minimize the NK response is unknown.

B-1 Bombers Key to a U.S. Plan to Strike North Korean Missile Sites - NBC News

 

[STURM]

No doubt the U.S will not be the first to use nukes. The most likely scenario which would see the use of nukes would be after the North Korean's retaliate - with unconventional means - following a U.S conventional air and missile strike. "No offensive tactical applicant was ever foreseen or intended as it was fully recognised that such an act would bring about political retaliation on a massive scale. It was a powerful bluff". This is taken from a book I'm currently reading about the South African "border war" and is in reference to fears by the Cubans that the South Africans would use its nukes on Cuban troops near the border of what's now called Namibia. To slightly different degree it can also be applied to the North Koreans; the difference is that they would face total destruction rather than the "political retaliation" the South Africans would have faced.

As for China and Russia it's not only them that have to weigh the plus and minus but also the U.S. They may not say it but how China reacts will weight heavily in the minds of U.S. of planners. Getting into a war - once again - with China as a result of actions taken against North Korea would be a major disaster. As has been pointed out, radiation from the use of nukes will spread to China; to understate things : the Chinese will not be too pleased...

 

[John Fedup]

The possible nuclear threat feared by the Cubans in South West Africa (now Namibia) is interesting. What is the name of the book? I agree with your assessment of the differences between these two situations but wasn't South Africa already facing some pretty severe political retaliation already during this period over Aparteid.fftopic