Royal Canadian Air Force (RCAF) News and Discussions
- Thread starter John Fedup
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t68
Well-Known Member
It think it was 6B AUD for 15 years the original estimate from memory
John Newman
The Bunker Group
Not 15 years it was for 10 years.
I remember at the time (2007), the then Def Min, Brendan Nelson, made the announcement that the 24 Super Hornets would be in service from 2010 to 2020.
He also went on to say that the 'total' cost of ownership over that period would be A$6.1B (eg, approx. $600m per year over those ten years).
Yes FX rates do have an impact and the Canadian dollar is not as strong as I thought compared to the USD which has surprised me. As value proposition one wonders if they are cutting off their nose to spite their face with respect to the alternative. I am assuming the costings model used by the CDN is similar to the 'all up' WoL ownership costings OZ style.The 5-7 billion must be CDN so roughly that is 3.7 to 5 billion US. Like you, the numbers baffle me and DND is hardly a fountain of information. Even assuming a F-35 price for these interim SH of 100m US, that is still only 1.8 billion US so the spares and support cost appear to be around 2-3 billion on top of the 1.8 billion buy price. No idea as to what the spares and support consist of.
John Newman
The Bunker Group
Yes you would have to think that the Canadian Govt has probably based the cost in a similar way to how it was costed here in Oz for the RAAF's interim Super Hornets.
And yes it does appear they are cutting their noses off, pretty crazy really, but this is as much a political procurement as anything else, designed to avoid making a final decision on replacing their Classic Hornet feet for as long as possible (make it the next Governments problem!).
That C$5B-C$7B would go a very long way in procuring a good chunk of those 65 F-35A's for the RCAF!!!
John Fedup
The Bunker Group
- Thread Starter Thread Starter
- #506
It appears that even the shallow thinkers in junior's cabinet are beginning to figure that out!
Is this better measured against the Kuwait deal? 40 aircraft (32 x E, 8 x F) at USD10.1B. No operations costs in that package - planes, spare and training only as quoted from DSCA FMS announcement. Flyaway might be USD 100m per aircraft but check the specification list on what you don't get and actually need to make it a combat aircraft. The Canadian taxpayers should prepare themselves for something more than USD 2B up front.
John Newman
The Bunker Group
Rather than measuring against the Kuwait deal, I think it is better to measure and compare against the RAAF's acquisition of the 24 'interim' Super Hornets.
To repeat what I posted earlier, the then Australian Def Min announced in 2007 that the 24 Super Hornets would be in service from 2010 to 2020. The cost would be A$6.1B (average cost A$610m per year over ten years).
Roll forward to today, the Canadian Government is planning to procure 18 interim Super Hornets (and I've seen reports for either 10 or 15 years), which means they would be in service from approx. 2020 to 2030 or 2035, with a cost of C$5b-C$7b). Possibly the C$5b is ten years and the C$7 is for fifteen years.
And to make this a bit more relevant, both the A$ and the C$ are at parity.
On a 'yearly' basis over 10 years, the RAAF figure for 24 Super Hornets was an average total cost of ownership of A$610m per year, for the RCAF, 18 Super Hornets over 10 years would appear to be approx. C$500m per year (we also have to remember that the RAAF's cost were for 2010-2020, the RCAF's costs would be for 2020-2030), appears to be pretty comparable to me.
Anyway, just my opinion of course too!
Thanks John. That is very helpful. I cannot remember whether or not if the RAAF buy included weapon stocks - someone here would obviously know.
Beside's a billion isn't really what it used to be.
At the start there is a hard cost that has to be paid to FMS. The sale has to be notified to Congress with a total program cost. What's your thoughts on that actual cost?
John Newman
The Bunker Group
Mr C, the RAAF acquisition was 10 years ago, so the memory is getting a bit foggy, but I seem to remember that there was also an 'initial' weapons buy (not 100% sure though?) that may have also been included in that A$6.1b figure quoted by the then Def Min.Thanks John. That is very helpful. I cannot remember whether or not if the RAAF buy included weapon stocks - someone here would obviously know.
Beside's a billion isn't really what it used to be.
But weapons stock (or a different type of weapons stock), is an important consideration for Canada (has it been taken into consideration??).
Whilst the RAAF is an existing operator of Classic Hornets (same as Canada), there were some significant differences between the weapons fit of the RAAF's Classic Hornet fleet and the new Super Hornet fleet.
From memory the bomb load, guided and non guided, was the same, there is a difference with the missile load out.
The RAAF's Classic Hornets are equipped with ASRAAM (Super Hornet, AIM-9X), AMRAAM (same on both, maybe different versions?), Classic is also fitted for JASSM (Super with JSOW), and I also think there are different targeting pods across the two types too, both are fitted with Harpoon.
So that is an important point, the RAAF made it clear that they would keep their Super Hornets in 'exactly' the same configuration and weapons fit as the USN's Super Hornets, hence the introduction of new weapons (they won't be wasted, because they will also be used on the RAAF's F-35A's).
For Canada, how much of the weapons carried by their Classic Hornets can be carried over to their Super Hornets (without having to integrate them), who knows?
It's not just introducing a new type, it's also the issue of introducing 'new' weapons too!
John Newman
The Bunker Group
Yes of course there is an 'upfront' cost for the airframes, initial spares holdings, possibly initial weapons, targeting pods, etc.
From memory (and again this was 10 years ago), when the Australian Def Min of the time, who quoted the A$6.1b cost for ten years of complete 'ownership' for the 24 Super Hornets, also said that a bit under 'half' of that 'total' amount was the cost for the airframes and initial spares, it may (or may not) have also included an amount for initial weapons stock and there were also basing infrastructure upgrades too.
For Canada, with the proposed 18 Super Hornets, the initial upfront cost could easily be between $2b-$3b, depending what is initially requested.
But it also depends on what the FMS request is for, is for the bare minimum (and other requests follow), or is it the whole hog, including a full stock of spares, weapons, simulators, etc, who knows what the Canadian FMS request will contain, each country does things differently to the other.
Thanks. This may be a "mute" point considering Canada's current relationship with Boeing. I will take a punt on $3B and another bet that the purchase doesn't happen.
Novascotiaboy
Active Member
The Halifax Chronicle Herald had this today as a business story for IMP.
Former U.S. presidential helicopters may be pressed into service in Canada | The Chronicle Herald
I watched these aircraft being unloaded onto the container dock in Halifax then being barged across the Bedford Basin to the Magazine then they were transported by highway to IMP at the Halifax airport. What an opportunity to increase the fleet to a level it should have been from day one.
Former U.S. presidential helicopters may be pressed into service in Canada | The Chronicle Herald
I watched these aircraft being unloaded onto the container dock in Halifax then being barged across the Bedford Basin to the Magazine then they were transported by highway to IMP at the Halifax airport. What an opportunity to increase the fleet to a level it should have been from day one.
John Fedup
The Bunker Group
- Thread Starter Thread Starter
- #515
Better yet, send the Sikorsky Cyclones back and replace them with 28 AW101s plus some new Cormorants and keep the Presidential units as spares, another good idea that wasn't in the defence review.
John Fedup
The Bunker Group
- Thread Starter Thread Starter
- #516
The defence review paper has no commitment for joining forces regarding missile defence with the US.
Novascotiaboy
Active Member
I note that a replacement for the CP 140 Aurura fleet is planned for 2030 with the Canadian Multi Mission aircraft. I said it before that we won't see P8 and I postulated a Bombardier C series option as most likely. With this statement in the defence review my money is on this happening.
This combined with the want to partner more with Canadian industry on defence procurement this would be a great project impacting industry across the country. An ARGUS II.
This combined with the want to partner more with Canadian industry on defence procurement this would be a great project impacting industry across the country. An ARGUS II.
Be very expensive and although the Argus was good, IMHO they should have stayed with the turboprops instead of going to compound radials. If Airbus decide to revisit the A319-MPA then Bombardier would have a very limited run with a lot of competition on the international market. At present there is the Boeing P-8 and the MHI P-1 with the P-8 well and truly dominating the market. Bombardier (and the Canadian Govt) would need export orders to really make it worthwhile. Then there are the SAAB and Elta conversions of bizjets to account for as well, some of which are Bombardier bizjets. So you could end up with a G5 or 6000 with Elta gear instead of the C series.
John Fedup
The Bunker Group
- Thread Starter Thread Starter
- #519
Agree, a C-Series MPA will be much too expensive and all the export potential has already gone to the P8. The defence review promises an Aurora replacement sometime after 2030. Like a lot of other stuff in the report, plenty of time to allow these commitments to fade away. This defence plan (1.4% of GDP with 20% of this number for equipment purchases by 2026) is a budget to appease Trump. If Trump doesn't run or loses the 2020 election, junior will cancel his plan in a NY minute.
Thinking about it Australia is looking to acquire the remaining P-8's post 2025 when it is likely the P-8 would be out of FRP, If Canada can movethere purchase up a few years and perform a single large joint production with Oz it may allow both to reduce the purchase price of there respective aircraft. Food for thought.