Royal Canadian Air Force (RCAF) News and Discussions

[hauritz]

Defence spending increase could mean Canada buys more than 88 fighter jets, says RCAF general


As I was saying.

That "16/72 split" talk was ridiculous anyway.

Canada is in an awkward situation with the F-35. The 16 on order is barely enough for a single squadron. The cost of maintaining such a small fleet sounds like it could be a logistical nightmare. The 40/80 mix suggested in the article would give Canada at least some economy of scale while not being entirely dependant on the whims of the USA. Problem is that for all the discussion of getting Gripens you have to wonder if they are really the sort of aircraft you would want to be flying in the 2050s and beyond. There is GCAP on the horizon but that is still 10 - 15 years away.

As I said it is an akward position for Canada to find itself in.

 

[Terran]

“The 40/80 mix suggested in the article would give Canada at least some economy of scale while not being entirely dependant on the whims of the USA.”

Unless SAAB and Canada go through a major design overhaul to the Grippen it’s still using an American engine, American sourced life support. It’s still the Inferior aircraft by even the Canadian MOD measure. It’s going to take maybe a decade to build up the base of production which is going to be a 4.5 generation fighter in the mid to late 2030s.

 

[hauritz]

Unless SAAB and Canada go through a major design overhaul to the Grippen it’s still using an American engine, American sourced life support. It’s still the Inferior aircraft by even the Canadian MOD measure. It’s going to take maybe a decade to build up the base of production which is going to be a 4.5 generation fighter in the mid to late 2030s.

Yep, even fitting a RR engine won't solve the problem. The more I think about the more I think that Canada might have to stick with the F-35. Whether it commits to the full 88 is another issue. They could leave their options open for GCAP down the track.

 

[John Fedup]

Fewer F-35s is the likely decision regardless of whether Gripens are ordered or not. GCAP should absolutely be considered. No more F-35s until block 4 is finished and no going past 40 until the ECU is ready at which point GCAP will be close.

 

[koxinga]

Alert5 was at the Singapore Airshow 2026 and spoke with the Saab representatives on the global prospects for the E/F.

Saab Gripen program update - Singapore Airshow 2026 - Alert 5

Saab is moving aggressively to expand Gripen production capacity to 36 aircraft per year, a significant increase driven by a swelling order book and growing interest from countries reconsidering their reliance on traditional defense suppliers. The Swedish manufacturer signed contracts for 21 new...

alert5.com

For Canada..

Canada’s Mixed Fleet Question
The most intriguing prospect for Saab may be Canada, which is conducting a strategic defense review that includes questions about its fighter fleet composition. Rather than replacing its planned F-35 purchases, Canada is exploring whether adding Gripens to create a mixed fleet would provide better capability and value.

Franzén acknowledged the unusual nature of the campaign. “Many are speculating, you know, will they replace the F-35 with Gripens. I don’t think that is what they’re looking for,” he said. “I think they’re looking for could it be stronger to have a mixed fleet.”

The pitch hinges on complementary strengths. The Gripen offers higher availability, lower operating costs, and rapid adaptability through software updates, while the F-35 brings stealth and other capabilities. For the same budget, Saab argues, Canada could field more total aircraft with a mixed fleet than with F-35s alone.

If Canada proceeds, Saab proposes building initial aircraft in Sweden for quick delivery, then shifting production to Canada using the country’s existing aerospace industrial base. When asked if a Canadian production line would serve only domestic needs, Franzén indicated it would produce for export as well.

The timeline is tight. Canada needs replacement capability before 2032, and speculation suggests the requirement could reach up to 80 Gripens if the mixed fleet concept proceeds. That would require moving quickly through what Saab acknowledges will be a complex process of integrating a second fighter type into Canadian operations.

 

[hauritz]

Looks like Canada is buying an additional 14 more F-35s. They are actually paying for long lead items.

 

[BostonMartin]

Looks like Canada is buying an additional 14 more F-35s. They are actually paying for long lead items.

It makes sense, anything less than 30 wouldn't be sustainable.

 

[John Fedup]

It makes sense, anything less than 30 wouldn't be sustainable.

The F-35 availability has improved to somewhat over 50% so only 14 instead of 16…..

 

[King Wally]

Fewer F-35s is the likely decision regardless of whether Gripens are ordered or not. GCAP should absolutely be considered. No more F-35s until block 4 is finished and no going past 40 until the ECU is ready at which point GCAP will be close.

Could it be viable for Canada to lease something like Gripen to cover the wait period for GCAP to roll out?
30 x F35 (as would appear is incoming) + a couple squadrons of a leased solution might tide things over I was thinking?

 

[John Fedup]

Could it be viable for Canada to lease something like Gripen to cover the wait period for GCAP to roll out?
30 x F35 (as would appear is incoming) + a couple squadrons of a leased solution might tide things over I was thinking?

If the F-35 buy is limited to 30 jets then another fighter would be needed and Gripen is the realistic choice (Typhoon and Rafale too expensive). Can't see GCAP availability for Canada much before 2050-55 so might as well buy Gripens.

 

[swerve]

SAAB's offering Canada production for other customers. Apparently, production capacity is a constraint on sales, so along with investing in increasing capacity in Sweden, they're looking for a third production line. I'm not sure why Embraer isn't increasing capacity.

 

[CorvetteCrunch]

GCAP should absolutely be considered.

I don't think its realistic at all for the RCAF to be considering GCAP, for a multitude of reasons. Canada seems to desperately want industrial benefits and workshare however, Japan is aggressively pushing away partners who want this and Canada also does not have much to realistically offer a 6th gen program. GCAP is an entirely unproven design with a somewhat dubious timeline, it does not make sense to me to cut out capability now for potential of a deal with GCAP sometime in the far off future. My biggest issue is the costs at hand, I've seen cost estimates between 2x-3x that of things like the F-35A for 6th generation fighters as a whole. People are winging and complaining enough now about fighter costs, I find buying any workable amount of fighters with these sorts of cost figures to be questionable.

Could it be viable for Canada to lease something like Gripen to cover the wait period for GCAP to roll out?
30 x F35 (as would appear is incoming) + a couple squadrons of a leased solution might tide things over I was thinking?

I don't think its especially likely or plausible, given how thinly spread the Gripen fleet is. Saab has just started recently drip feeding new E/F models to the Swedish Airforce, who desperately needs them given their own delays and the increasingly ragged C/D fleet they possess. Brazil will not part with their small E/F fleet, and there is customers in the pipeline ahead of us if we go down that route. Saab simply does not have the infrastructure to onboard Canada into the Gripen ecosystem without seriously degrading our own required capabilities.

SAAB's offering Canada production for other customers. Apparently, production capacity is a constraint on sales, so along with investing in increasing capacity in Sweden, they're looking for a third production line. I'm not sure why Embraer isn't increasing capacity.

Because similarly to what is being offered to Canada, Embraer isn't actually building Gripen's but assembling them from largely foreign built components imported either from Sweden, US or Europe while building some sub-components at home. They are long delayed and very fixated on getting the aircraft out the door for Brazil, not anybody else. This is the sort of thing Canada is potentially signing on for, and it will only make our ongoing fighter situation worse.

 

[John Fedup]

I don't think its realistic at all for the RCAF to be considering GCAP, for a multitude of reasons. Canada seems to desperately want industrial benefits and workshare however, Japan is aggressively pushing away partners who want this and Canada also does not have much to realistically offer a 6th gen program. GCAP is an entirely unproven design with a somewhat dubious timeline, it does not make sense to me to cut out capability now for potential of a deal with GCAP sometime in the far off future.

I am not suggesting the F-35 or F-35/Gripen acquisition should be cut back for GCAP but rather GCAP should be a longterm consideration and as fewer 6th Gen fighters will be needed no local production is realistic. CCA production should be an option though.

I don't think its especially likely or plausible, given how thinly spread the Gripen fleet is. Saab has just started recently drip feeding new E/F models to the Swedish Airforce, who desperately needs them given their own delays and the increasingly ragged C/D fleet they possess. Brazil will not part with their small E/F fleet, and there is customers in the pipeline ahead of us if we go down that route. Saab simply does not have the infrastructure to onboard Canada into the Gripen ecosystem without seriously degrading our own required capabilities.

I have my doubts about how realistic Canadian production would be. It only makes sense if Canada was going to export jets for Sweden's other clients. Also, Saab needs other engine at the very least and should be sourcing alternatives for other major Gripen components as well. This is due to the questionable path the MAGA/GOP is walking but also the real possibility the US supply chain will be maxed out by any US-China conflict. Can't see spares forthcoming for our fleet if this conflict comes about. Add in the questionable readiness rates and upgrade delays for the F-35, I really think having an addition fighter to fall back on despite the training and logistics hassles is worthwhile.

 

[CorvetteCrunch]

I am not suggesting the F-35 or F-35/Gripen acquisition should be cut back for GCAP but rather GCAP should be a longterm consideration and as fewer 6th Gen fighters will be needed no local production is realistic. CCA production should be an option though.

I still do not think a 6th generation is a smart or especially worthwhile investment for the RCAF anytime soon when the F-35 provides a very modern and long term relevant capability. I would much rather see Canada work to develop/produce our own CCA capabilities to supplement F-35 orders.

I have my doubts about how realistic Canadian production would be. It only makes sense if Canada was going to export jets for Sweden's other clients. Also, Saab needs other engine at the very least and should be sourcing alternatives for other major Gripen components as well. This is due to the questionable path the MAGA/GOP is walking but also the real possibility the US supply chain will be maxed out by any US-China conflict. Can't see spares forthcoming for our fleet if this conflict comes about. Add in the questionable readiness rates and upgrade delays for the F-35, I really think having an addition fighter to fall back on despite the training and logistics hassles is worthwhile.

The problem is Sweden doesn't really have any other clients, nowhere near enough to actually make a Canadian export case worthwhile. They are selling small scale orders to a few backwater nations, with Ukraine asking about potentially hundreds but their order is fundamentally unrealistic and unlikely to amount to anything. Saab is not considering another engine, their CEO came out recently and said getting another engine is uneconomical. Much of the vital, expensive systems in the Gripen such as the radar aren't even Swedish, but are exported items from various other European and American companies.

Lockheed Martin has a gigantic production capability, one that Canada has been involved with for years building F-35 components itself. If you are concerned about F-35 parts shortages during wartime, what will happen with a Gripen fleet when Saab's paltry capability is entirely outstripped almost immediately? Saab cannot even keep up with their relatively small scale production as it sits now, any conflict would cause them to effectively collapse given how they regularly juggle parts and components back and forth to Brazil, Sweden, America and the EU. We are far safer with Lockheed Martin versus Saab if you are concerned about parts availability.

I personally want Canada to have nothing to do with the Gripen E/F, it is an exceptionally poor investment to buy a souped up 4th generation fighter when the world has already transitioned heavily over to 5th generation aircraft and is now moving on to 6th generation aircraft in the coming years. We will be operating any aircraft for the next 30-50 years, the Gripen is just about relevant at the moment and for the next 5-10 years against less capable enemies, but it is effectively irrelevant in the medium to long term. We dump billions into Bombardier in Quebec in order for them to take a decade just to tool up to do sub-component production and assembly of an aircraft we aren't truly even building at home? An aircraft with a small userbase and even smaller potential customer base? It's effectively a repeat of the CF-5, an irrelevant aircraft purchased largely for questionable industrial benefits.

It is such a poor idea that the Canadian Govt will likely move ahead with it anyway.

 

[John Fedup]

I still do not think a 6th generation is a smart or especially worthwhile investment for the RCAF anytime soon when the F-35 provides a very modern and long term relevant capability. I would much rather see Canada work to develop/produce our own CCA capabilities to supplement F-35 orders.

Agree, not anytime soon for 6th gen, and yes, CCA should be something that Canada should pursue.

Lockheed Martin has a gigantic production capability, one that Canada has been involved with for years building F-35 components itself. If you are concerned about F-35 parts shortages during wartime, what will happen with a Gripen fleet when Saab's paltry capability is entirely outstripped almost immediately?

Guessing neither will deliver if things go pear shaped

when the world has already transitioned heavily over to 5th generation aircraft and is now moving on to 6th generation aircraft in the coming years. We will be operating any aircraft for the next 30-50 years,

Yes, many Western allies have invested in the F-35 and we all should hope LM gets their $hit together wrt block 4 and P&W as well with the ECU. But lets face, their track record sucks on software and lets not forget the ALLIS C-F. I assume ODIN has sorted this. The F-35 is the only 5th gen option which is a problem. Our last fighter acquisition had four US "teen" fighters alternatives. China has at least two 5th gen in production along with 2 flying 6th gen prototypes albeit the actual stealth capabilities are unknown. Stealth and sensor infusion are outstanding features but quantum technology radar and IR advances may significantly reduce the viable lifespan for the F-35. Bottom line, all large quantity fighter investments will be risky.

We dump billions into Bombardier in Quebec in order for them to take a decade just to tool up to do sub-component production and assembly of an aircraft we aren't truly even building at home?

This is my biggest objection wrt a Gripen. If it is to be built in Quebec, that is a non-starter for me.

It is such a poor idea that the Canadian Govt will likely move ahead with it anyway.

True, Quebec will always play the extortion card for pork on the Liberal party in return for electoral support.

 

[CorvetteCrunch]

Yes, many Western allies have invested in the F-35 and we all should hope LM gets their $hit together wrt block 4 and P&W as well with the ECU. But lets face, their track record sucks on software and lets not forget the ALLIS C-F. I assume ODIN has sorted this. The F-35 is the only 5th gen option which is a problem. Our last fighter acquisition had four US "teen" fighters alternatives. China has at least two 5th gen in production along with 2 flying 6th gen prototypes albeit the actual stealth capabilities are unknown. Stealth and sensor infusion are outstanding features but quantum technology radar and IR advances may significantly reduce the viable lifespan for the F-35. Bottom line, all large quantity fighter investments will be risky.

The thing people don't realize that in this hypothetical situation where the stealth capabilities of the F-35 are somehow degraded by substantial advancements in sensor platforms, this will have an outsized impact on existing 4th gen aircraft as well and make them even less viable than their already diminishing state is currently. Even if you take away the F-35's stealth entirely, you have a very capable aircraft as far as its performance and specifications go, primarily around its sensor fusion. Yet even with the delays to the program, the F-35 is an exceptionally successful platform with huge adoption numbers worldwide not seen since the F-16. Being interoperable with the US and countless other partners abroad is key to the RCAF's success both home and abroad.

I'd argue the F-35 has the least risk of all the options available, and the best value for money proposition given the questionable relevance of all other fighters on the market right now.

This is my biggest objection wrt a Gripen. If it is to be built in Quebec, that is a non-starter for me.

That is the current proposal, although "built" is being nice. They will be building limited sub-components from scratch but largely doing final assembly of airframes using parts from Sweden, Brazil, Europe and the United States. This is what they offered to Brazil, which its own factory and timeline has been long delayed and fraught with trouble.