Royal New Zealand Air Force

John Newman

The Bunker Group
Seriously the fact that the GoNZ made a Request to the US State Department is not ever done lightly - not done on a jolly - not done to waste scarce staff time both stateside in the US and in NZ at the defence, legal and political level. This is not a fishing expedition for further facts - all that is known. It is a signal that there is a reasonably strong intention that the GoNZ wants to acquire the platform and requests permission to do so.
And I think that is a significant point made, you don't go to the trouble of going through the FMS notification process just for the fun of it.

We all just have to wait and see.

Hopefully the Kiwi's get their 4 (5 would be better?) P-8A's, and together with the eventually 15 P-8A's for the RAAF, a pretty good 'joint' capability in our part of the world to have.
 

Gibbo

Well-Known Member
Does'nt the current C130 fleet allow for this SAR "option"? As in they CAN be made available for SAR duties when/if needed, does'nt mean they nesscessarily got anything above and beyond equipment wise per se bar some mk1 eyeballs and a patrol pattern. Not sure we will see too much of a change in this regard bar anything that comes with the platform as a bonus ie we will not turn transport aircraft into quasai SAR aircraft as standard and use them on a regular basis.

Much like any vessel in the navy can be a patrol vessel with varied results but does not then make them all a "patrol" vessel in the true sense. Possible envisaged abilities not added capabilities as such. Long range, endurance and a window could be considered SAR capable.

I think the visiting CG herc was just that, a visiting CG herc, here for the SAR conference and merely showing what they do. Alot of capabilities, civil and mil, have visited over the years to showcase their way of doing things but does not nesscessarily mean we are then getting them or even implementing their practices just always enlightening to see how other organisations conduct their buisness sometimes. The CG C130 is no where near what we need in terms of P3 replacement and whilst having some similarities in the SAR arena are very different beasts indeed in their overall job descriptions.
Yes completely agree - the USCG visit was plainly & simply as part of the conference... no sales pitch involved whatsoever. And yes the current 40 Sqn C130H can do fairly rudimentary SAR - AIUI on the odd occasion they have relieved P3's while waiting overhead a 'found' target.

My point was in response to another post that suggested the HC-130 would be looked at with interest in relation to the P1 vs P8 debate - I was simply saying there was no such relevance.

I did point out however that the FAMC project does ask for a SAR capability as a requirement so we may see that picking up some tasking that the reduced 5 sqn fleet (hypothetical example = 4 x P8A :cool:) may not always be on tap to do at short notice. 42 sqn looks destined to do some of the shorter range SAR as well.

I don't expect the FAMC platform(s) will have specific SAR sensors but they could offer some capability along with pairs of eyeball sensors. Also if the location of a vessel in distress is known from beacons etc there's less searching required and more an oversight / comms role required - a job a transport a/c could do fairly easily.

Agree we won't see 40 & 42 moving into a SAR role as a core tasking but to assist 5 sqn where circumstances (including a smaller 5 sqn fleet) dictate they might be able to assist effectively.
 

40 deg south

Well-Known Member
Frankly I would expect it is the only aircraft to go through to the next stage. Not surprised at all that it would be.

Seriously the fact that the GoNZ made a Request to the US State Department is not ever done lightly - not done on a jolly - not done to waste scarce staff time both stateside in the US and in NZ at the defence, legal and political level. This is not a fishing expedition for further facts - all that is known. It is a signal that there is a reasonably strong intention that the GoNZ wants to acquire the platform and requests permission to do so.
Fair enough. I was thinking about recent acquisitions where they have down-selected two finalists (DSME and Hyundai, Pilateus and Textron) and going to a Best and Final Offer stage.

If they have concluded it is a one-horse race, I guess there is no point in that step.
 

40 deg south

Well-Known Member
And I think that is a significant point made, you don't go to the trouble of going through the FMS notification process just for the fun of it.
True, but FMS notification doesn't always mean a sale proceeds. Last year Chile received FMS clearance for ESSM, which was one of three competing packages for their Type-23 frigate upgrade.

Lockheed Martin Canada confirmed for Chilean Type 23 upgrade | Jane's 360

Latest Defence Industry News - Naval Technology

They eventually opted to go for the offer from Lockheed Martin Canada with SeaCeptor. A minor piece of good news for NZ, as their will be three more frigates south of the equator with a similar CMS/sensors/weapons fit. And a bigger pool of users to share ongoing costs with.
 

John Newman

The Bunker Group
True, but FMS notification doesn't always mean a sale proceeds. Last year Chile received FMS clearance for ESSM, which was one of three competing packages for their Type-23 frigate upgrade.

Lockheed Martin Canada confirmed for Chilean Type 23 upgrade | Jane's 360

Latest Defence Industry News - Naval Technology

They eventually opted to go for the offer from Lockheed Martin Canada with SeaCeptor. A minor piece of good news for NZ, as their will be three more frigates south of the equator with a similar CMS/sensors/weapons fit. And a bigger pool of users to share ongoing costs with.
Yes certainly true that a sale doesn't automatically proceed, and at times too the requirement can be altered.

Couple of examples of being altered for the RAAF in recent years was in early 2013, the then Oz Government (Gillard Government) sought approval for 12 E/F Super Hornets and 12 Growlers (only the 12 Growlers were proceeded with) and of course a few years ago when approval was sought for an additional 4 C-17A's, in the end it was two.

So yes until there is eventually some official announcement by the NZG there is no guarantee of an P-8A purchase, but the intention does appear to be there.
 

RegR

Well-Known Member
Yes completely agree - the USCG visit was plainly & simply as part of the conference... no sales pitch involved whatsoever. And yes the current 40 Sqn C130H can do fairly rudimentary SAR - AIUI on the odd occasion they have relieved P3's while waiting overhead a 'found' target.

My point was in response to another post that suggested the HC-130 would be looked at with interest in relation to the P1 vs P8 debate - I was simply saying there was no such relevance.

I did point out however that the FAMC project does ask for a SAR capability as a requirement so we may see that picking up some tasking that the reduced 5 sqn fleet (hypothetical example = 4 x P8A :cool:) may not always be on tap to do at short notice. 42 sqn looks destined to do some of the shorter range SAR as well.

I don't expect the FAMC platform(s) will have specific SAR sensors but they could offer some capability along with pairs of eyeball sensors. Also if the location of a vessel in distress is known from beacons etc there's less searching required and more an oversight / comms role required - a job a transport a/c could do fairly easily.

Agree we won't see 40 & 42 moving into a SAR role as a core tasking but to assist 5 sqn where circumstances (including a smaller 5 sqn fleet) dictate they might be able to assist effectively.
Yes agreed but then another issue I can see is then the numbers of C130 replacements we may get depending on what we evenrually go for. It was found with the current fleet 8 C130 would in fact be the optimal number to alleviate issues but somehow I think we may even struggle to get 1 for 1 for what we now have. Point is we may just end up with the same shortages in the future and may not be able to expect much assistence in this area without consequences or at least repeating the problems of the past.

IMO a dedicated alternative to relieve the pressure is just as important for the transport fleet as it is for the maritime fleet if we are to truely move forward from lessons learned and not merely carry on as per just with new platforms.
 

Gibbo

Well-Known Member
Yes agreed but then another issue I can see is then the numbers of C130 replacements we may get depending on what we evenrually go for. It was found with the current fleet 8 C130 would in fact be the optimal number to alleviate issues but somehow I think we may even struggle to get 1 for 1 for what we now have. Point is we may just end up with the same shortages in the future and may not be able to expect much assistence in this area without consequences or at least repeating the problems of the past.

IMO a dedicated alternative to relieve the pressure is just as important for the transport fleet as it is for the maritime fleet if we are to truely move forward from lessons learned and not merely carry on as per just with new platforms.
Yeah I totally agree - I'd plump for 5 x FASC; 2 x FAMC strategic; 6 x FAMC tactical; 5 x light tactical... (or just 8 tactical) but it feels very unlikely they will get more than 4 x FASC and 1:1 replacements for 40 sqn.

I'm not in anyway suggesting RNZAF should make SAR a core role for 40 & 42 sqn - I'm just saying that, in relation to comments about the USCG HC-13O visit, RNZAF might find themselves having to meet some 5 sqn taskings with other types.

I am a fan of having 42 sqn picking-up short-range SAR but only if they get a fleet of 6 properly equipped King-Airs later this year, and that it is done as part of the training syllabus. What happens this September as the B200 lease ending is still unannounced.

The reality is the RNZAF is never going to be adequately equipped - Govt & NZDF spin doctors waffle about us playing our part, but we are becoming an irrelevance in higher end ops.

p.s. that last comment should not be taken by service personnel as a slight... more to the point it is a statement of utmost support on my part... it's the gutless irrelevance of political indifference that annoys me.
 
Last edited:

Novascotiaboy

Active Member
So from 16 Sunderland to five then six P3 to four likely P8's. Even with the B200 replacement decision coming in September there is still a need for more aircraft IMHO.

If eight C130 was considered the optimal number twenty years ago could not the need for civil support in country and to the South Pacific in general not be enough of a requirement to sway public opinion for additional airframes?

With the likely selection of the P8 inevitable does this not present the need for AAR capability to extend the range of the P8 which is known to be far less than than the P3? If so what would be the desired path? MRTT or K767 / KC46 or a KC130 / KC390 type?
 

ASSAIL

The Bunker Group
Verified Defense Pro
So from 16 Sunderland to five then six P3 to four likely P8's. Even with the B200 replacement decision coming in September there is still a need for more aircraft IMHO.

If eight C130 was considered the optimal number twenty years ago could not the need for civil support in country and to the South Pacific in general not be enough of a requirement to sway public opinion for additional airframes?

With the likely selection of the P8 inevitable does this not present the need for AAR capability to extend the range of the P8 which is known to be far less than than the P3? If so what would be the desired path? MRTT or K767 / KC46 or a KC130 / KC390 type?
As reported here by some the time on task for the P8s, during the Malaysian Airlines search in the Southern Ocean, was approx double that of the P3s.
Raw numbers are never a fair indicator of capability and that's what countries buy, capability not platforms.
 

kiwipatriot69

Active Member
As reported here by some the time on task for the P8s, during the Malaysian Airlines search in the Southern Ocean, was approx double that of the P3s.
Raw numbers are never a fair indicator of capability and that's what countries buy, capability not platforms.
So how many does that in reality does that leave to patrol NZ, given that some will be in maintainence during the year, others on deployment in the gulf or even on a trans tasman exersize, one airframe?
 
Last edited by a moderator:

ASSAIL

The Bunker Group
Verified Defense Pro
So how many does that in reality does that leave to patrol NZ, given that some will be in maintainence during the year, others on deployment in the gulf or even on a trans tasman exersize, one airframe?
P8s provide a warfighting capability for NZ in ASW and ISR and provide long range SAR.
What is meant by "patrolling NZ"? If you mean short range SAR then a P8 is overkill and others here have listed alternatives.
The government and the Airforce will set the priorities having regard to the units available and to be realistic no defence force can provide 100% of every demand made.
 

kiwipatriot69

Active Member
P8s provide a warfighting capability for NZ in ASW and ISR and provide long range SAR.
What is meant by "patrolling NZ"? If you mean short range SAR then a P8 is overkill and others here have listed alternatives.
The government and the Airforce will set the priorities having regard to the units available and to be realistic no defence force can provide 100% of every demand made.
Apologies, i meant nz in the broader context of our eez and the pacific region we patrol.which quite obviously, the king air have neither range or sensors to do so.
 

MrConservative

Super Moderator
Staff member
So how many does that in reality does that leave to patrol NZ, given that some will be in maintainence during the year, others on deployment in the gulf or even on a trans tasman exersize, one airframe?
You seem to be focusing on a platform / airframe and not a force capability.

If for example if one of the FASC aircraft is deployed operationally, another in the depot, the third on a TT exercise - yes just one of the platform would be available. But would the capability to provide airborne surveillance and SAR disappear? No.

There are other options to generate a capability.

1. The B200 replacement in which a supplementary tender was launched in November 2016 to the originating RFI (for the 7 year lease for an ACTC) is seeking notification from industry to scope Defense and Law Enforcement and Security and Safety Equipment and Supplies. Thus there is the clear intention to add a basic patrol capability to enforce the EEZ on a complementary basis to provide depth to the capability.

2. The FAMC RFI listed SAR is an essential capability sort for the C-130H replacement and that ISR is a desired capability and that the B757 replacement in the RFI has SAR and ISR marked as desirable capabilities.

If we look at the capability solution in the context of platforms available to achieve EEZ patrols or SAR - NZ is moving from a current package of effectively 6 P-3K2's (with a very adhoc / hail mary additional back up response) to being in a few years a competent capability package stemming from 4 x FASC, 2 FAMC Strategic, 5 FAMC Tactical and 4/5 leased AWCT/MEPT platforms - possibly more would be able to achieve EEZ airborne surveillance and SAR. This response capability could extend into the Southern Ocean and Pacific if need be. B350 does have the range to self deploy into the South Pacific and be based there.
 

ngatimozart

Super Moderator
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
Not RNZAF but pertinent to the ongoing FAMC discussion. A RAF A400M loading a US Army Stryker (LAV 25) recently in the US.

 

RegR

Well-Known Member
So how many does that in reality does that leave to patrol NZ, given that some will be in maintainence during the year, others on deployment in the gulf or even on a trans tasman exersize, one airframe?
Just like any organisation priorities come into play and you cannot cover every eventuality everytime otherwise we could just do that for every major platform we have and either go broke, have overkill or have idle platforms sitting around taking up funding all for "what ifs". If you are going off the fact we have 6 P3s and therefore judge we then need 6 P8s to complete the same job then you would be alittle off. Old tech in even older frames tends to go U/S more often than not and the reliability and maintanence/crewing practices of new builds will see them available alot more than 1960s era platforms so in fact 4 P8s vs 6 P3s is not as dire as it seems. This is not even taking into account the greater capability afforded or the short range platform already mooted which will focus their qualities more efficiently for better results. I would argue we have 6 P3s just to be able to have a fleet of 4 available anyway including programmed maintanence and with the advent of plug and play and fault finding diagnostics spare components are just as important as spare platforms these days with similar outcomes.

We are not the only ones who think along these lines as you just have to look at other fleets (of multiple platforms) around the world to see downsizing, alternate options and new practices to achieve results and more importantly stay within budget. Obviously there is a point where numbers are a quality in their own right but I think we all know by now that our govt will run projects as thin as possible to avoid funding.
 

rjtjrt

Member
..............Old tech in even older frames tends to go U/S more often than not and the reliability and maintanence/crewing practices of new builds will see them available alot more than 1960s era platforms so in fact 4 P8s vs 6 P3s is not as dire as it seems. This is not even taking into account the greater capability afforded or the short range platform already mooted which will focus their qualities more efficiently for better results. I would argue we have 6 P3s just to be able to have a fleet of 4 available anyway including programmed maintanence and with the advent of plug and play and fault finding diagnostics spare components are just as important as spare platforms these days with similar outcomes.

..........
Whilst that is true, what happens when the 4 P8's are 20+ years old, and you will then have fewer than 4 available due programmed maintenance and unexpected unserviceability?
I'm have no doubt RNZAF have thought of this and either allowed for it, or plan a future supplemental buy of ?Triton, or just have to fit in with available funds whatever the future availabilty.
 

Gibbo

Well-Known Member
Whilst that is true, what happens when the 4 P8's are 20+ years old, and you will then have fewer than 4 available due programmed maintenance and unexpected unserviceability?
I'm have no doubt RNZAF have thought of this and either allowed for it, or plan a future supplemental buy of ?Triton, or just have to fit in with available funds whatever the future availabilty.
Yes it is 20 years from now that we might see the squeeze - not so much on air frames & engines that will benefit to a degree from the commonality with the commercial variants, but more on the internal systems as software needs upgrading, replacing etc to keep it running. The modern concept of systems modularity may however alleviate some of that.

The next 20 years is going to see quantum changes in defence equipment as technology advancements forge ahead and it would be very difficult to make any plans that far out now. The global security picture will also probably be quite different by then and may drive requirements in differing directions.

I doubt the NZDF has any firm plans for supplemental types for the P8A at this point, but you're right that could definitely see drone technology on a significant scale adopted by the NZDF.

Is it only me or does the NZDF seem notably slow in their uptake of drone technology? Yes the little kahu has been used by the Army for sometime but it is a fairly limited capability and just how much operational use has it had? RNZN has done a commercial trial of the scan-eagle, which is certainly a positive move but is there any actual plan for them to purchase it? The defence white paper is very light on strategies for uptake of drones - it only really touches on it in regard to Orion replacement but rather vaguely...which given it is looking 10-15 years ahead seems rather lame.
 

MrConservative

Super Moderator
Staff member
Whilst that is true, what happens when the 4 P8's are 20+ years old, and you will then have fewer than 4 available due programmed maintenance and unexpected unserviceability?
I'm have no doubt RNZAF have thought of this and either allowed for it, or plan a future supplemental buy of ?Triton, or just have to fit in with available funds whatever the future availabilty.
Triton or other UAS? A business jet variant? Who knows - maybe remanufactured 737-8ERX airframes into replacements in 20 years time. Boeing is proposing the 8ERX with beefed up wings, landing gear and fuselage center section 44 to replace the B757 in commercial passenger and cargo fleets.
 

Rob c

The Bunker Group
Verified Defense Pro
To me the number one reason we have our armed forces is to ensure our security.
If this is the case can 4 aircraft act as a viable unit in a crisis situation for a significant period of time? The answer in the 80's was that 5 could not and that 6 was the minimum required. Now technology has change so the numbers may also change, but the question remains.
 
Top