NZDF General discussion thread
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40 deg south
Well-Known Member
Both Greener and Ayson comment on how little fuss/fanfare greeted the DWP. This element of domestic politics has been completely overlooked by most international (read Australian) commentary on the Paper.
Ayson hints at the fact that the public focus on Antarctic matters has helped obscure the fact that some of the planned purchases will have applications far beyond EEZ patrol and HADR.
Perhaps this political salesmanship is why NZ has a three-term government on track for a rare forth term, while Australia can't seem to find a PM that lasts even a single term in office.
The window dressing with respect to wider applications of future defence acquisitions is bang on. That is the thing with Key, why he has managed to stay in for 8 years and still poll solidly - he can sell policies better than most. Of course he does keep Curia Research busy with the focus groups to know all this.
However I do not think it is fully a salesmanship by Key thing. I have a view that much of the public are more concerned about the global unrest both current and potential and its implications for New Zealand than policy makers give them credit for. There has been a clear shift in public sentiment since 2011, a recognition within the general public that there is no longer a benign post-cold war strategic environment. You can see an ever so slight neo-realist position in even the Greens since they got rid of Russell Norman, also with Shearer as Shadow DefMin who does not hold the baggage of the previous Clark Govt it is also slightly possible that Labour could look to become more bi-partisan than it has been since 2008.
One of the past criticisms overseas and not just from Australia about most NZ Defence analysts & commentators is that they tended to look from NZ out with respect to Defence and yet are not considering enough the view from the outside looking back. Local exceptions are Simon Murdoch the ex MFAT Sec now with the The Asia New Zealand Foundation and of course Ayson. Both have had the advantage than lengthy spells overseas provide that kind of perspective.
Well I would be alittle dissapointed if not TBH but considering the content, even down to particular platforms, capabilities, ideas etc I think there is at least more than an outside chance. I think it a good idea to have a range of pers on here be it expert, experience or enthusiast as it adds to the mix rather than straight out of the operating manual so to speak giving a range of alternate veiws, ideas and suggestions that would sometimes not be a consideration otherwise.
kiwipatriot69
Active Member
With the current Trump Admin, and some of his rhetoric about isolationism, Nato, and wanting members to pay 2% of GDP, how do you think this could affect or Defence arrangements, would Nz have to adjust our policy and spend more, change our method,area,priority of operations?
Good question. I've actually started a thread about it was writing it why you were posting this
http://www.defencetalk.com/forums/g...its-possible-impacts-nz-defence-policy-13919/Novascotiaboy
Active Member
To all who follow this site about the NZDF please take a moment to think about all those affected by today's earth quake.
To those in the affected areas, Ngati, and others I hope all is well with you and yours.
Read on a news site that NZDF assets are being deployed to the most affected areas along with St. John Ambulance and fire services but it will be morning before detailed assessments are available, NZ time.
To those in the affected areas, Ngati, and others I hope all is well with you and yours.
Read on a news site that NZDF assets are being deployed to the most affected areas along with St. John Ambulance and fire services but it will be morning before detailed assessments are available, NZ time.
Thanks. It was not a nice experience bringing back bad memories for many in and around Christchurch. We are fine in my house and don't live near the coast or any waterways. No 1 grandson is happy because no school for him today
So far 2 dead,1 in Kaikoura from a house collapse and another from a heart attack induced by the earthquake. The earthquake itself was a 7.5 at 15 km depth occuring at 12:02am NZDT today, immediately followed by a 6.6 at a 16km depth. A tsunami was initiated and an alert issued which is still in force. The media have reported a 2m tsunami striking Kaikoura. State Highway 1 is closed both sides of Kaikoura with severe landslips on the southern side of Kaikoura along the coast that will take significant amount of time to clear. Downtown Wellington is closed due to damage. The areas around the epicentre are reasonably remote, in NZ terms, and are still being accessed with communications proving difficult.The Cook Strait RORO ferries have been cancelled with damaged to facilities at Picton and Wellington.
Two RNZAF helos have just transited through Wellington with a NH90 to Woodbourne and the other helo (type not stated) to Kaikoura. Would expect a P3K2 to be doing an airborne reconnaissance of the area now. I would think that Canterbury may be preparing for a run to Kaikoura because no road access to it at the moment. If the road from the Kaikoura airfield to Kaikoura is open and relatively undamaged then they may be able to get C130s into and out of the airfield. Interestingly enough I did a tsunami hazards assessment of Kaikoura quite a few years back when I was at uni.
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40 deg south
Well-Known Member
Thanks for that, Nova.
Looks as if the epi-centre being in a sparsely-populated rural area has greatly lessened the damage to life and property. Still lots of shaken people (particularly in Christchurch), and infrastructure damage that will only become apparent over the days to come.
Novascotiaboy
Active Member
Good to hear you and yours are OK Ngati. Only experienced a very minor quake once many many years ago.
Take care.
Take care.
Thanks. In the last 6 years we have experienced 15,000+ shakes in Christchurch and the novelty has well and truly worn off.
kiwipatriot69
Active Member
Has the Tsunami done any damage to our coastline? i see it was downgraded. My ex state housing is about 70 yrs old and has held up quite well since the 2010 one struck.
I don't know yet and it's hard to say because relatively little info has come out of the Kaikoura area.
fftopicTsunami don't come in as a high wave,standing up like in the movies, but generally as a surge of water with a considerable amount of energy and water behind them. According to wave theory, the longer the wave length (λ) the greater the wave velocity (v) and energy (e) through a medium. Tsunami λ are measured in 100's of km so that's how they each v of say 400 - 700 km/hr in deep water. In water a wave touches bottom at 1/2 λ so if it has a λ ≥ than 11 km, which is the deepest point of the Marianas Trench and hence any ocean of the Earth, there is no place on the planet where they don't touch bottom and hence their v is slowed because of the frictional drag on the bottom. The morphology (shape) of the bottom therefore affects their impact upon any coast refracting the waves and reducing their v as the water shallows.
What a wave does is that is an e transfer process, in this case through water, and in the case of water the actual water particles don't move but they transfer the e through them. When the wave reaches shallow water the v however the e remains relatively the same but does attenuate (decay) over time due to the friction. This causes the wave to rise in height. However with a tsunami because the wave is continuously in contact with the bottom it generally comes in as a surge - a wall of water, so to speak that just continues to move inland until it reaches the contour of its wave height or it runs out of e which ever is the sooner. They also run up rivers and streams as bores.
Until the 2011 Tōhoku earthquake and tsunami in Japan, we had no real scientific witnessed evidence of what actually happens when a tsunami interacts with a shore and a human use system. Prior to that most data we had was inferred from after action reports and studies. Because there was live television broadcast and heaps of video evidence of the Tōhoku tsunami striking the coast, we were able to witness what happened and the processes in real time, keep the actual visual record from the start to finish which makes a huge difference in how we can study and understand these phenomena.
NZDF Kaikoura Quake Update
NZDF Kaikoura Quake Update
NZDF Kaikoura Quake Update
The photo link is to the NZDF Facebook page photo album and is 10 photos taken from a NH90.
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I read how the C130 could not get into Kaikoura airstrip and the king airs could be used to ferry 7 people at a time, just goes to show maybe something other than a large transport could have a use in any future 40sqn org as this could be not only NZ specific but potentially regional with other natural disasters. Options are always good especially since the loss of the andovers without replacement has already been noted and flow on effects felt for some time now.
Good to see CY earning its keep and proving its worth yet again, definately one of the most important ships in NZs kitty IMHO regardless of what some think of her. Flexability even on their birthday week, good work RNZN and defence in general, this should put those out there who argued the recent "military spend up" somewhat in their place ie in the quiet seats, at the back, with the blinds closed.
Let's hope the weather plays ball and Canterbury can use her landing craft off Kaikoura (which could be tricky for any amphibious vessel, we're talking open ocean swells - it's not a sheltered lagoon). NZDF Facebook page has video of her departing Auckland and an interview with her captain. Sounds like she may have Seasprites aboard. I wonder if she is also carrying one of the REA boats? First priority seems to be evacuation of the (500?) stranded tourists to Lyttelton, then bringing in relief supplies.
Good luck & godspeed.
Good luck & godspeed.
Kaikoura's main tarmac runway is only 700m so very limited to anything bigger than a KingAir.
The Philippines disaster in 2013 and the 2011 Tohoku Quake and Tsunami demonstrated the incomparable utility of the humble CH-47. Kind of useful when airstrips are flooded or destroyed.
Novascotiaboy
Active Member
The takeoff run of the C295W is 670m. Only 30 m to spare but it could do it. That's 10 ton of lift or 70 people. Yet again the need for a light Twin tactical in country although not as versitile as the Chinook still a viable aircraft type.
If this trend of major destructive earthquakes continues maybe financial resources can be found for a modest purchase of Chinooks or Merlins. Merlins being marinized would be a good fit to use from Canterbury or it's inevitable replacement.
If this trend of major destructive earthquakes continues maybe financial resources can be found for a modest purchase of Chinooks or Merlins. Merlins being marinized would be a good fit to use from Canterbury or it's inevitable replacement.
According to the NZDF Facebook page the HMNZS Wellington OPV is also on the way to Kaikoura. She will scout for suitable locations for the Canterbury to operate her landing craft from. Presumably the Wellington will be carrying an REA boat (as per the Cyclone Winston response).
Marine weather forecast says 2m swells and moderate-to-rough conditions off Kaikoura (Conway area). Gale warning. I'm guessing sea state 4 at least. Not great. Fingers crossed.
The Air Force has started lifting stranded tourists out by NH90. KingAirs are at Woodbourne.
Marine weather forecast says 2m swells and moderate-to-rough conditions off Kaikoura (Conway area). Gale warning. I'm guessing sea state 4 at least. Not great. Fingers crossed.
The Air Force has started lifting stranded tourists out by NH90. KingAirs are at Woodbourne.