NZDF General discussion thread

[RegR]

RegR

When the original competition was run what was the key points that tipped the win to the NH90 over the AW139. The AW139 was designed as a Huey replacement and would have allowed more air frames to be acquired. The AW139 could have been in service sooner and would have delivered similar capabilities albeit without a ramp.

Given the low number of air frames acquired the NZDF is limited in the number of concurrent operations that can take place. Quantity has a quality unto itself.

Although moot now a fleet of fourteen AW139 and twelve AW109 would have provided a one for one replacement of the Huey and allow eight A/LUH for general utility missions plus four AW109 for training.

Using available sources a militarized AW139 would be less than half that of an NH90 with similar abilities. Definitely not equals but a very capable aircraft.

Using the current JATF concept a more appropriate mix of rotary aircraft would have been five AW101 in full navalized kit for use from naval vessels and as heavy transports, ten AW139 for medium domestic tasks and ten AW109 for utility and training. Again I realize that three types and more air frames would have never happened but just think of the capabilities that this would have offered.

Plus I think it could have been done at a similar or less cost as to what was purchased.

Perhaps that addition of said ramp was the tipping point as well as the other improvements over the AW139 (I personally like the 139 as well) however so seemingly slight. You have to remember this is our main helo workhorse and as such has to tick the most amount of boxes as we are not fortunate enough to allow multiple types for more specific roles ie light, medium, heavy, this is it for us, with abit of help from the A109s and SH2Gs but they too have their priorities. Options such as avionics, composites, cabin, ramp, upgrade paths, performance, range etc all came into consideration when compared to the likes of UH60 which is nearing the end of its future proofing cycle whereas NH90 is at the beginning. All new tech has a certain level of risk in the beginning.

Selection of platforms on a one for one basis do not exactly work the same way as they once did as with the advent of technology, capability, reliabilty and overall performance you do not in fact need as many numbers to achieve the same outputs. Example being you cannot compare a NH90 to a UH1H as they are worlds apart and TBH a single 90 can lift and carry more than 2 hueys further and faster so in fact is still improved with 8 frames vs 14. Other factors such as operational costs, maintainence cycles, task trainers all add up as well and need to be taken into account as you could have more frames but if you have to pay more per flight hour then inevitably you just get less hours of flight per frame to compensate without a funding boost. If you start adding in multiple missions then where exactly does it stop? 1 mission, 2 missions, 3, 1 squadron, 2 squadrons, 3? All about prioritising, not over commiting and working within your means and it also has the opposite effect in the quiet times of extra assets sitting idle and becoming a financial drain. Capability is generally inherently expensive so finding the correct mix is a science in itself. It would be akin to us replacing the 4 IPVs one for one with 4 OPVs, nice to have and no doubt useful but considerations such as manning, tech, budgets etc begin to blow out and the perceived gains are actually somewhat lost.

No doubt air did its research and considerations and did not in fact get it because it's shiny and new. Australia, our closest and arguably most aligned regional/international partner also selected them so again that speaks for their initial selection process as a vast range of our requirements are very similar and in concert when applicable.

 

[t68]

When you cut and paste something from a published source please provide a link to that source. It prevents any allegations of plagiarism and breaches of copyright laws. This is the link: Australia and New Zealand—so near yet so far | The Strategist

Ok, wasn't awere that I had to put up the link again when I quoted a post which contained the link

Well if for some reason that Australia were to disappear from the map, we'd win the netball and the rugby league hands down but would have nobody to fight with over the origin of the pavlova. On the more serious note, there sure would be a big panic in Wellington. As a thought experiment NZ would of had a different history from 1642 onwards because you would be looking at alternate timelines, so that's what you would have to base your thought experiment on. What differences would there be to the colonisation of NZ and subsequent NZ history.? What impacts would have the non existence of the Australian land mass have had on the Pacific War during World War 2? Those two major events would have informed the NZ world view significantly.

Good post, didn't occur to me that you would have to go so far back, the whole history would be very different with European settlement, NZ could in theoy have a population of just under 30 million

 

[ngatimozart]

Ok, wasn't awere that I had to put up the link again when I quoted a post which contained the link

If there was only a single link in the post it would've been no probs, but because there was more than one you should just repost the link at the end of the quote.

Good post, didn't occur to me that you would have to go so far back, the whole history would be very different with European settlement, NZ could in theoy have a population of just under 30 million

Don't think 30 million because I think that the country may struggle to support that many, but you never know. One line could be that the poms wouldn't have transported so many crims out to this part of the world because the Maori would've reacted differently. The only reason that they originally put up with the poms was because they wanted to trade with the poms in Sydney back in the 1820's.

Since in this particular timeline Sydney wouldn't exist that reason wouldn't also exist. So then they may have played the poms of against the French and the US who were here then too. They really wanted to trade and they knew that their closest reliable market was the NSW colony. However they were also encountering problems with the crews etc., off ships up in the far north at a port Korerakeaka, present day Russell in the Bay of Islands. It was the worst den of iniquity in the Southern Hemisphere with rampart alcoholism, fighting, prostitution, thievery, murder and other nefarious crimes. Otherwise a great place for sailors to have a really good run ashore.

In the real world the paramount Ngapuhi Chief, Hongi Hika asked for the British to police the area under their law because he knew that if Maori applied their law and justice that it would drive the foreigners away, hence the trading would stop. Ngapuhi were (and still are) the main iwi (tribe) in the far north and punishments for transgressing Maori law included death either of the transgressor or of one of the transgressors relatives, minions or slaves. However if the crime was significant in Maori eyes then multiple persons would have been killed and on occasion put into the hangi pit and eaten. The last part didn't occur all the time and word had gone around not to eat the foreigners because they didn't taste right.

The reason Hongi Hika and other chiefs were so keen to trade was because they were after guns. They went to extraordinary lengths to acquire supplies and services to trade for guns. They prostituted their women to the foreigners and they starved themselves by replacing their own sweet potato crops, which they really needed, to grow potatoes for sale to foreigners. They provisioned ships, built their own ships for coastal trading and to trade with the NSW colony. All to get guns, powder and shot in order to make war on those who were their enemies and Maori were really good a making war. It was their favourite activity. The wars between the tribes were only stopped by the missionaries and the greatest bloodletting was the Musket wars of the late 1820s - 1830s. My own great great grandfather fought in those and was the last true warrior of our iwi. Hongi Hika (and my gg granddad) went to London circa 1824 and meet with the then King George IV who gave him a suit of armour. Whilst there he studied Napoleon and they meet the Duke of Wellington. My gg granddad took an interest in the Dukes campaigns and when they came back to NZ this knowledge was put to use in the subsequent Musket Wars.

Therefore in the alternate timeline if Maori had turned on the poms especially prior to 1835, then NZ would've been a different place. They would've had the numbers and most certainly the abilities and capabilities to evict the poms from here.

 

[MrConservative]

Further detail and historical background regarding the MUH/LUH replacement discussed earlier.

The rotary fleet replacement project last decade was a pretty comprehensive exercise that not was just a paper evaluation exercise but included cabin mock-ups, manufacturer visits, famil flights, end user reports. Though the then government of the day did not pursue it - Option 5C of 10 MUH's and 10 LUH's were deemed to be the optimum mix to meet all key NZDF operational tasking requirements including the most effective mix for humanitarian aid and disaster relief operations. The like for like replacement of the Sioux and Huey was even then in December 2003 considered as being too expensive. With the eventual sticker shock of the NH-90 the project was truncated to 8 and 5 plus attrition spares by 2006. The NH-90 including GST cost $870m of which $500m was for the actual prime aircraft contract. Nearly $100m in GST alone!

The rotary replacement project considered that with 10 x LUH aircraft they would be able to have 4 aircraft for training and 3 aircraft available for deployment into the Pacific as directed for light utility taskings with a limited amount of tasking in support of the NZDF, the Government and other departments and agencies as airframes were available. The 5C option would have provided for 4050 flight hours p.a . and would have required 13 pilots of which 6 would be qualified helicopter instructors and 7 light utility helicopter pilots. At the time having a capable LUH which could swing between training roles / utility taskings (the original 2002 idea was to buy used civil AS.550's for training only) was to offset the lost of a like for like with respect to MUH airframes.

 

[Novascotiaboy]

Thanks all for the detail on the MUH program. Very interesting how it got to this point.

Regarding the S92 or as we call it the Cyclone, still not in full service.

 

[John Fedup]

Thanks all for the detail on the MUH program. Very interesting how it got to this point.

Regarding the S92 or as we call it the Cyclone, still not in full service.

A CH-148 (S/H-92) is going to participate in Spartan Warrior 2016 for testing and evaluation. This is where we are after 12 years, pretty sad.
U.S. and Canadian navies begin maritime exercise, Cyclone involved for first time | Ottawa Citizen

 

[Rob c]

Further detail and historical background regarding the MUH/LUH replacement discussed earlier.

The rotary fleet replacement project last decade was a pretty comprehensive exercise that not was just a paper evaluation exercise but included cabin mock-ups, manufacturer visits, famil flights, end user reports. Though the then government of the day did not pursue it - Option 5C of 10 MUH's and 10 LUH's were deemed to be the optimum mix to meet all key NZDF operational tasking requirements including the most effective mix for humanitarian aid and disaster relief operations. The like for like replacement of the Sioux and Huey was even then in December 2003 considered as being too expensive. With the eventual sticker shock of the NH-90 the project was truncated to 8 and 5 plus attrition spares by 2006. The NH-90 including GST cost $870m of which $500m was for the actual prime aircraft contract. Nearly $100m in GST alone!

The rotary replacement project considered that with 10 x LUH aircraft they would be able to have 4 aircraft for training and 3 aircraft available for deployment into the Pacific as directed for light utility taskings with a limited amount of tasking in support of the NZDF, the Government and other departments and agencies as airframes were available. The 5C option would have provided for 4050 flight hours p.a . and would have required 13 pilots of which 6 would be qualified helicopter instructors and 7 light utility helicopter pilots. At the time having a capable LUH which could swing between training roles / utility taskings (the original 2002 idea was to buy used civil AS.550's for training only) was to offset the lost of a like for like with respect to MUH airframes.

Just something I spotted in the MOD annual report was that the NH90 contract in fact came in at $675819K due to currency fluctuations, a saving of $92991K. I assume this was not including GST. Go to page 50 MOD Annual report. Annual Report 2015 Contents

http://www.defence.govt.nz/reports-publications/annual-report-2016/contents.html

 

[RegR]

Further detail and historical background regarding the MUH/LUH replacement discussed earlier.

The rotary fleet replacement project last decade was a pretty comprehensive exercise that not was just a paper evaluation exercise but included cabin mock-ups, manufacturer visits, famil flights, end user reports. Though the then government of the day did not pursue it - Option 5C of 10 MUH's and 10 LUH's were deemed to be the optimum mix to meet all key NZDF operational tasking requirements including the most effective mix for humanitarian aid and disaster relief operations. The like for like replacement of the Sioux and Huey was even then in December 2003 considered as being too expensive. With the eventual sticker shock of the NH-90 the project was truncated to 8 and 5 plus attrition spares by 2006. The NH-90 including GST cost $870m of which $500m was for the actual prime aircraft contract. Nearly $100m in GST alone!

The rotary replacement project considered that with 10 x LUH aircraft they would be able to have 4 aircraft for training and 3 aircraft available for deployment into the Pacific as directed for light utility taskings with a limited amount of tasking in support of the NZDF, the Government and other departments and agencies as airframes were available. The 5C option would have provided for 4050 flight hours p.a . and would have required 13 pilots of which 6 would be qualified helicopter instructors and 7 light utility helicopter pilots. At the time having a capable LUH which could swing between training roles / utility taskings (the original 2002 idea was to buy used civil AS.550's for training only) was to offset the lost of a like for like with respect to MUH airframes.

All projects tend to aim high and then settle lower as if they know they won't get what they ask for so safer to talk up the high range, compromise on the mid range and obviously show the low range as ineffective to seal the deal. I think one of the only times this has worked fully was the LAV project so was probably abit of a shock and better not to look a gift horse in the mouth (although somewhat backfiring now to a degree).

Others then re-align after cost/operational benefits are worked out or adequate alternatives found such as OPV, A109 or LTCP but generally still not full high range. Guess they do not want another roasting ala "too many" LAVs so are therefore risk adverse when it comes to the high end expensive projects and going all out.

 

[MrConservative]

Just something I spotted in the MOD annual report was that the NH90 contract in fact came in at $675819K due to currency fluctuations, a saving of $92991K. I assume this was not including GST. Go to page 50 MOD Annual report. Annual Report 2015 Contents

Annual Report 2015 Contents [Ministry of Defence NZ]

Probably not and the contract quoted above included the support package as well as the direct manufactured airframe cost.

 

[40 deg south]

...

My own great great grandfather fought in those and was the last true warrior of our iwi. Hongi Hika (and my gg granddad) went to London circa 1824 and meet with the then King George IV who gave him a suit of armour. Whilst there he studied Napoleon and they meet the Duke of Wellington. My gg granddad took an interest in the Dukes campaigns and when they came back to NZ this knowledge was put to use in the subsequent Musket Wars.

Sheesh. From your name I'd always assumed you were Austrian!

Yep, if Australia wasn't there NZ would probably have a more assertive defence policy. But if Australia wasn't there, it's also possible NZ would have a larger population/economy, so would have better defence resources in any case.

It's equally probable that Canada would have stronger defences if they didn't border a friendly superpower, Germany would have stronger defences if they didn't have Poland between them and the Russian hordes and ROK would have weaker defences if they didn't have a nuclear-armed lunatic as a next-door neighbour.

But, to quote Bishop Butler "Everything is what is it, and not another thing".

It can be entertaining speculating about 'what if?', but ultimately its a pointless exercise.

 

[Rob c]

Probably not and the contract quoted above included the support package as well as the direct manufactured airframe cost.

The MOD report was specific that the quoted saving ($92m)was due to currency fluctuations from the original contract price of $770m.

 

[htbrst]

The MOD report was specific that the quoted saving ($92m)was due to currency fluctuations from the original contract price of $770m.

And somewhat ironically the very first post in the RNZAF thread was discussion about the budget blowout of the NH-90 due to currency fluctuations, which was one reason only 8 (+1 for spares) air-frames were ordered and not more. $92 Million should be pretty much bang to pay for an extra one so I hope its being considered

 

[MrConservative]

The MOD report was specific that the quoted saving ($92m)was due to currency fluctuations from the original contract price of $770m.

Thats good news - we ended up on the winning side of the ledger in the end. So those FX differences essentially saved the GST on the original contract package. $675m + 15% GST is better than the $770m + GST.

So like htbrst asks does the saving mean that we can buy another NH-90 or the 3 extra 109's Mr Mapp once was keen on? Nah - they would never do that would they.

 

[Rob c]

Thats good news - we ended up on the winning side of the ledger in the end. So those FX differences essentially saved the GST on the original contract package. $675m + 15% GST is better than the $770m + GST.

So like htbrst asks does the saving mean that we can buy another NH-90 or the 3 extra 109's Mr Mapp once was keen on? Nah - they would never do that would they.

You are dead right, I think treasury would have grabbed the excess before you could blink. Doubt it even went near a defence account, May have helped to buy the new BMW's(Bavarian Money Wasters) a couple of years back.

 

[40 deg south]

Cross-posted from the Navy thread.

http://defsecmedia.co.nz/data/documents/Line-of-Defence-Summer-2016-17.pdf

Some of you may remember the inaugural publication of Line of Defence, an attempt by a small specialist publisher to create a defence-related magazine for NZ. I think the initial plan was for quarterly publication. The second issue has emerged, about 6 months after the first.

I haven't yet read it, but thought others may be interested. Posted here as this is currently the most active NZ thread.

 

[MrConservative]

Cross-posted from the Navy thread.

http://defsecmedia.co.nz/data/documents/Line-of-Defence-Summer-2016-17.pdf

Some of you may remember the inaugural publication of Line of Defence, an attempt by a small specialist publisher to create a defence-related magazine for NZ. I think the initial plan was for quarterly publication. The second issue has emerged, about 6 months after the first.

I haven't yet read it, but thought others may be interested. Posted here as this is currently the most active NZ thread.

Good to see the interview with Al Gillespie there. Al is a specialist in armed conflict law though he does not touch on that here. Hopefully they will interview him again drawing him out on the laws of war side of things which actually is an important context within defence policy construction. Good to get a change from Greener, Mapp and Ayson who we are all quite familiar with.

 

[kiwipatriot69]

Thanks for the history lesson Ngati, a good read,but given the resources at stake, why wouldnt they redouble the effort ,gold rush too was a factor for the settlement of Nz initially.Other powers like the French would of had a go too at it, perhaps even America, the result would of been similar for maori then, to what it was for North American Indian.Or African American even at the time. Governed by the same laws, without many of the benefits Uk system we are based on.

 

[RegR]

Cross-posted from the Navy thread.

http://defsecmedia.co.nz/data/documents/Line-of-Defence-Summer-2016-17.pdf

Some of you may remember the inaugural publication of Line of Defence, an attempt by a small specialist publisher to create a defence-related magazine for NZ. I think the initial plan was for quarterly publication. The second issue has emerged, about 6 months after the first.

I haven't yet read it, but thought others may be interested. Posted here as this is currently the most active NZ thread.

I would hazard a guess that at least some of the contributors to this are members on here considering the topics covered and direction of discussion. Any takers?

 

[ngatimozart]

I would hazard a guess that at least some of the contributors to this are members on here considering the topics covered and direction of discussion. Any takers?

Not necessarily and not I.

 

[ngatimozart]

Southern Katipo 17 will again be held on the West Coast, Nelson and Marlborough regions during late 2017. This was also the region where Southern Katipo 15 was held. The 2017 iteration will be extended to Greymouth and across the hill to Kaikoura. As well as the usual suspects, Singapore and Malaysia have been invited.