This starts to give us a handle on the thinking for these replacements and in my View changes the likely order of the potential aircraft. I think this would in the case of the tactical transport replacement shift the C130J to the back of the the listing. Possible order could be, C2/A400, then KC390 followed by C130J. The C130J misses out on to many of the desirable attributes, as well as the essential attribute of the UPGRADE path, due to the old hydraulic /mechanical controls and systems having already reached the end of their development potential. I think, to be a serious contender. However price will play a big part.
Rob
I am still sitting firmly on the fence!
However, it pays to remember that NZ's RFI's can be somewhat, erm, 'aspirational' (The classic phrase "Tell 'im 'e's dreamin'" springs to mind). Look at the tanker RFI; Ro-ro capability, 200+m vehicle lanes, two landing craft etc etc. Once the bids were opened, reality kicked in and we ended up with a conventional oiler with space for deck cargo.
The biggest single factor determining the path taken will be the make-up and mood of the government of the day. This will be determined (primarily) by what combination of parties wins the next election, and (to a lesser extent) the state of the government books in 2018. How risk-averse the DefMin, CDF and SecDef of the day are will also play a role. (If Winston is king-maker and Ron Marks DefMin, the C-130J is home and hosed. And those fancy American rifles can be sent back where they came from, while some stocks of trusty SLRs are unearthed!)
The second key factor will be how the in-development options (i.e. everything except the C-130J) are progressing in their first years of service. In terms of maturity, I'd rank them as follows
C-130J (by a country mile)
A400M
C-2
KC-390
I'd expect the order placed sometime in 2018, so anything could happen.
Mr C and Ngati - some excellent points in your posts. I'll respond later.