War Against ISIS

[gf0012-aust]

the IR imagery is the key. France, Israel and the US have the capability to backtrack what happened

I'm staying out of the motive debate as I've got my own opinion but don't think it adds anything to this debate

geez, have a look at other forums and blogs and they've all lit up with every moron from either side adding their insightful wisdom to whats happened

I'm becoming a firm believer in euthenasia.... at least it will stop these idiots from breeding

 

[ngatimozart]

Understandable. But I think the context here is key. Details about the violation itself are meaningful only to a point. It's fairly unlikely that a Russian bomber made a serious foray into Turkish territory, especially since it went down inside Syria. So barring that unlikely option, what are we left with?

So Feanor you are thinking that the Russians will respond with something that will make the Turks cough and splutter on their kebabs, but not enough to annoy NATO.

 

[Feanor]

So Feanor you are thinking that the Russians will respond with something that will make the Turks cough and splutter on their kebabs, but not enough to annoy NATO.

That would be my guess. It might be economic since the Turks have a number of important ties with Russia. Then again the Russian economy is not in great shape and dropping some of those projects could hurt Russia too.

It might be redoubled effort to crush the rebels in Latakia, and close the Turkish border. Maybe even a ground operation by Russian troops, in Latakia alone, to seal the Turkish border, or at least the deployment of Russian troops to support the Syrian offensive there (artillery or SpetzNaz for example). It could even be something as simple and obnoxious as delivering an Iskander btln to Latakia, and an ample supply of missiles, and then relentless pounding targets inches away from the Turkish border, including the weapons caravans from Turkey, immediately after they cross into Syria. Although I suspect they may be holding back the Iskanders because there are things about the capabilities of those systems they don't want to reveal quite yet.

But it's hard to say. They may do something that would annoy NATO.

EDIT: Russian arms deliveries to Syrian and Iraqi Kurds, "to help them fight ISIS". Especially modern ATGMs in bulk quantity.

 

[A.V. Berg]

That would be my guess. It might be economic since the Turks have a number of important ties with Russia. Then again the Russian economy is not in great shape and dropping some of those projects could hurt Russia too

EDIT: Russian arms deliveries to Syrian and Iraqi Kurds, "to help them fight ISIS". Especially modern ATGMs in bulk quantity.

Agreed. I could be wrong but irrespective of who is responsible, this is more of a headache for Russia than for NATO and Turkey. Short of going to war, there is not much that Russia can do which won't get reciprocated.

Arming the Kurds will hurt Turkey but it's not like Turkey can't begin to provide financial and ideological support to Tartar groups in Crimea in response. An economic war would be damaging to both parties. Greater Russian military involvement in Syria would mean greater use of the Bosporus. Whilst it can't be blocked outright, citing the Montreux Convention, Turkey can restrict the number and types of Russian ships coming through.

 

[Feanor]

NATO is having an emergency meeting about the shoot down. It looks like something has to be decided on.

ÐÐТО Ñозывает ÑкÑтренное Ñовещание в ÑвÑзи Ñ Ð¸Ð½Ñ†Ð¸Ð´ÐµÐ½Ñ‚Ð¾Ð¼ Ñ Ð¡Ñƒ-24 | Ð*ИРÐовоÑти

EDIT: Turkey summons the Russian ambassador.

http://ria.ru/world/20151124/1327511185.html

 

[Ranger25]

NATO is having an emergency meeting about the shoot down. It looks like something has to be decided on.

ÐÐТО Ñозывает ÑкÑтренное Ñовещание в ÑвÑзи Ñ Ð¸Ð½Ñ†Ð¸Ð´ÐµÐ½Ñ‚Ð¾Ð¼ Ñ Ð¡Ñƒ-24 | Ð*ИРÐовоÑти

Ideally NATO takes a step back to analyze the true data and see what actually happened. Then ideally engage both sides to deter any further escalation.


There is a history of several incursion but one would think that had stopped.
But I find it hard to believe Russian tech is that bad, more likely Turkish Bluster

Interesting the US and Germany pulled Patriot batteries out in the last 4-6 weeks.

I think VPP a will need to do something to bolster public support and his ego

Hopefully this does not escalate into anything larger, especially with one pilot dead

 

[Feanor]

Ideally NATO takes a step back to analyze the true data and see what actually happened. Then ideally engage both sides to deter any further escalation.


There is a history of several incursion but one would think that had stopped.
But I find it hard to believe Russian tech is that bad, more likely Turkish Bluster

Interesting the US and Germany pulled Patriot batteries out in the last 4-6 weeks.

I think VPP a will need to do something to bolster public support and his ego

Hopefully this does not escalate into anything larger, especially with one pilot dead

Meanwhile fighting is reported in the area where the Russian pilot was captured. Also a Syrian AF Mi-8 was seen there. A rescue operation already in progress?

Турецкие СМИ: в зоне Ð¿Ñ€Ð¸Ð·ÐµÐ¼Ð»ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ñ Ñ€Ð¾ÑÑийÑких летчиков идет бой | Военный информатор

And verification of the dead pilot. It looks like he's confirmed. RIP.

https://www.bellingcat.com/news/mena/2015/11/24/verifying-video-of-a-dead-russian-pilot-in-syria/

Ilya Varlamov is doing a rapid live update of all related occurrences in Russian. I'll post the latest. Putin has addressed the country, accusing Turkey of supporting terrorism. Not an inaccurate accusation, in my opinion.

http://varlamov.ru/1521789.html

EDIT: Putin: "We will carefully analyze what happened. Today's event will have serious consequences for Russo-Turkish relations. We always treated Turkey as a friendly country. I don't know who needed this to happen, certainly not us. And instead of establishing necessary contacts with us, we know Turkey immediately contacted their partners in NATO to discuss this incident. As if we shot down a Turkish plane, and not the other way around. They want to have NATO working for ISIS? I understand each country has their own regional interests and we always treat them with respect. But we will never allow crimes like this to occur."

 

[barney41]

CNN is citing a rebel leader in possession of the dead Russian pilot's body claiming he was killed by rebel machinegun fire while his parachute was descending. No way for CNN to verify the report.

Putin furious, calling the shootdown a "stab in the back" and says there will be serious repercussions in relations with Turkey.

 

[Nick underscore]

Conflicting reports on social media that a helicopter (Russian/Syrian) has been brought down near Al-Kawm, by the FSA 1st Coastal Div, with a TOW.

- Uncomfirmed reports of helicopter downed

Claimed elsewhere its an emergency landing and crew are safe.

No other mainstream reports, so very skeptical at this stage..

 

[Feanor]

Russian sources say both pilots are dead, and the plane was brought down when it was returning to base.

Putin says the plane was 1km away from the border when it was attacked, and fell 4 kms from the border. Talked about oil going into Turkey through ISIS.

ЗаÑвление Президента Ð*Ф каÑательно Ñбитого Су-24 - Ð”ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ñ ÐœÐ¾ÐºÑ€ÑƒÑˆÐ¸Ð½

EDIT: Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov has cancelled a visit to Turkey, but the Turks are insisting on meeting with him.

Russian Foreign Ministry has issued a recommendation to cease travel to Turkey, citing terrorism concerns, and some Russian companies have halted sales of tour packages to Turkey.

An SAR Mi-8 was destroyed on the ground with a TOW missile, it looks like nobody was killed.

In Moscow pickets have appeared at the Turkish embassy.

http://newsru.com/russia/24nov2015/lavrov.html
http://twower.livejournal.com/1846889.html
http://newsru.com/russia/24nov2015/natalieturs.html
http://newsru.com/world/24nov2015/helicopter.html
http://twower.livejournal.com/1846654.html
http://newsru.com/russia/24nov2015/protest.html

EDIT2: Russian Duma suggests cutting air travel to Turkey. Council of the Federation head suggests cutting all inter-governmental ties with Turkey.

The Pentagon issues a statement saying that Turkey shot down the Russian jet, to protect their airspace and the Russo-American agreement on sharing Syrian airspace does not apply. US also says they had nothing to do with the incident. They were informed of it by their Turkish partners.

http://kommersant.ru/doc/2861453
http://newsru.com/world/24nov2015/pentagon.html

 

[gazzzwp]

Putin says the plane was 1km away from the border when it was attacked, and fell 4 kms from the border. Talked about oil going into Turkey through ISIS.

Anti-Turkish sentiment isn't the answer. Russia have been displaying cavalier attitudes now ever since the beginning of the Ukrainian crisis. Increased bomber runs, submersible craft activity near sensitive undersea assets, bombers flying within 1Km of a US CSG, incursions over Turkish air space, etc etc....

Cavalier attitudes cost lives. NATO can bite just like Russia can. It's time we saw some respect from Russia imho.

Sad for the pilots involved. What's the betting that these border raids continue but with fighter escort?

The 1Km distance is nonsense imho. People can spit that far.

 

[2007yellow430]

Isn't the border there in dispute? Thought I read something about that. Looking fo rit now.

Art

 

[Feanor]

Anti-Turkish sentiment isn't the answer. Russia have been displaying cavalier attitudes now ever since the beginning of the Ukrainian crisis. Increased bomber runs, submersible craft activity near sensitive undersea assets, bombers flying within 1Km of a US CSG, incursions over Turkish air space, etc etc....

Cavalier attitudes cost lives. NATO can bite just like Russia can. It's time we saw some respect from Russia imho.

Sad for the pilots involved. What's the betting that these border raids continue but with fighter escort?

The 1Km distance is nonsense imho. People can spit that far.

Whatever you think of Russia's involvement in Syria, you can't possibly be dense enough to think that the reaction from Russia to this incident will be anything but outrage and retaliation. The only question is what form it will take. It hasn't been 24 hours, and they're already rapidly shutting down tourist ties with Turkey, a place where they can financially hit them hard at relatively low cost. I'm fairly confident that they will not stop supporting the Syrian offensive towards the Turkish border, and I think it's likely they will only intensify strikes there, be it by air, or switching to missile and tube artillery. Especially after the Turks "relatives" Turkmen killed both pilots. In this case Turkey's bite will end up costing them. The only question is how much will it cost them, and how much Russia is willing to pay or lose in the process.

 

[Capt. Ironpants]

Isn't the border there in dispute? Thought I read something about that. Looking fo rit now.

Art

See page 439 of Border Disputes: A Global Encyclopedia
(available on the net via googlebooks)

Meanwhile, Sky News just reported the Russians say one pilot is alive while Turkey claims two are alive ("BREAKING: Turkey believes the two pilots are still alive and is working to secure their release from Syrian rebels, a Turkish government official told Reuters and AFP news agencies."). We've already seen the reports the rebels shot both as they attempted to parachute to safety.

Sources: Russian Jet Shot Down By Turkey: Live Updates

https://twitter.com/AliBunkallSKY?ref_src=twsrc^tfw

 

[Feanor]

See page 439 of Border Disputes: A Global Encyclopedia
(available on the net via googlebooks)

Meanwhile, Sky News just reported the Russians say one pilot is alive while Turkey claims two are alive ("BREAKING: Turkey believes the two pilots are still alive and is working to secure their release from Syrian rebels, a Turkish government official told Reuters and AFP news agencies."). We've already seen the reports the rebels shot both as they attempted to parachute to safety.

Sources: Russian Jet Shot Down By Turkey: Live Updates

https://twitter.com/AliBunkallSKY?ref_src=twsrc^tfw

He doesn't look alive to me. Warning, extremely graphic images.

Ð*аÑÑтрел роÑÑийÑких пилотов - Военный Блог

EDIT: This seems to be the pilot in question.

https://vk.com/id191674592?z=photo191674592_336407985/photos191674592

 

[Capt. Ironpants]

He doesn't look alive to me. Warning, extremely graphic images.

Ð*аÑÑтрел роÑÑийÑких пилотов - Военный Блог

EDIT: This seems to be the pilot in question.

https://vk.com/id191674592?z=photo191674592_336407985/photos191674592

Agree. I think it's interesting the Turks are insisting both are alive and, according to the broadcast version of Sky News, are "reiterating" they are doing "everything possible" to secure their release. I haven't seen the Russians claim that one pilot is alive come up in the Sky update feed, but I just heard it on the live broadcast version. I'm wondering if there is confusion in the news media about the chopper pilots versus the jet pilots? Or is something else afoot?

 

[gazzzwp]

Whatever you think of Russia's involvement in Syria, you can't possibly be dense enough to think that the reaction from Russia to this incident will be anything but outrage and retaliation. The only question is what form it will take. It hasn't been 24 hours, and they're already rapidly shutting down tourist ties with Turkey, a place where they can financially hit them hard at relatively low cost. I'm fairly confident that they will not stop supporting the Syrian offensive towards the Turkish border, and I think it's likely they will only intensify strikes there, be it by air, or switching to missile and tube artillery. Especially after the Turks "relatives" Turkmen killed both pilots. In this case Turkey's bite will end up costing them. The only question is how much will it cost them, and how much Russia is willing to pay or lose in the process.

I'm sure you are right. The probability of a major escalation is extremely high now. Some might argue that Russia was soliciting such an escalation with it's provocative actions over the last few months as I mentioned above; furthermore that was always the real reason for being in the region in the first place.

 

[Nick underscore]

I believe the RF is trying to secure both dead bodies, which the Turkman rebel group claim, they have certain demands before they're returned.

I understand the SAR Mi-8 pilots and crew were evac'd/rescued prior to the grounded Mi-8 being hit with the TOW.

Personally, I think it's absolutely disgusting shooting at parachuting pilots.

 

[ZeonChar]

Russia is suspending all military contact with Turkey. - Via Interfax/MoD

There are also rumors, that they are recalling their citizens. This can turn real messy, at the very least I expect Russia to bomb the hell out of Turkmen/FSA positions real soon.

And yes, there is a graphic video on RT, and other sources showing Turkmen shooting the Russian pilots in the air, then while on the ground herding around the body. One even said "We should of burned him" Allahu Akhbar.

Apparently a Mi-8 search helicopter was in fact brought down by a ToW searching for the pilots, one marine is reported dead.

 

[Ranger25]

I believe the RF is trying to secure both dead bodies, which the Turkman rebel group claim, they have certain demands before they're returned.

I understand the SAR Mi-8 pilots and crew were evac'd/rescued prior to the grounded Mi-8 being hit with the TOW.

Personally, I think it's absolutely disgusting shooting at parachuting pilots.

Agreed 100%.