War Against ISIS

[A.V. Berg]

Those videos on the news showing Russian Backfires emptying their loads of dumb bombs over Syria are a jarring flashback to B-52s carpet bombing NV decades back. So different from the kind of precision attacks we have become used to in the decades since. Makes for good TV in Moscow no doubt.

As far as I know, US air force used carpet-bombing in Afghanistan. CNN of course, wants to make us think that all bombing undertaken by Western air forces was of a precision kind even though, it was clearly not always the case. The problem is not that dumb bombs are used. Rather, it's the fact that they are relied upon so much by the Russians which is worrying.

At the same time, over one-hundred Russian cruise missiles have been fired thus far, which is a tolerable figure.

 

[gf0012-aust]

As far as I know, US air force used carpet-bombing in Afghanistan. CNN of course, wants to make us think that all bombing undertaken by Western air forces was of a precision kind even though, it was clearly not always the case. .

I'm pretty sure that all the B1 and B52 reports I've seen were about using SDB's

very very few missions were freefall weapons and when they were they were due to geographical constraints.

In fact the majority were guided or assisted

 

[A.V. Berg]

I'm pretty sure that all the B1 and B52 reports I've seen were about using SDB's

very very few missions were freefall weapons and when they were they were due to geographical constraints.

In fact the majority were guided or assisted

I agree entirely that the majority of munitions were guided. However, carpet bombing was used by US forces.

US steps up strikes by carpet-bombing Taliban | World news | The Guardian

CNN.com - U.S. carpet-bombs Taliban lines - October 31, 2001

 

[chris]

I guess it has to do with what is your target.

I assume most of you watched RuAF videos with the huge lines of parked oil tracks and the one with the oil tanks. You don't need precision for those targets. You need as many bombs as you can drop, covering as much area as you can. Sounds like carpet bombing to me.

Precision weapons would be a waste of money and time in this case.

 

[Feanor]

Update.

Russian air strikes continued, along with cruise missile strikes. 18 more Kalibr-NK were fired from the Caspian, along with 30 air-launched cruise missiles (Kh-555s from the Tu-95MS, and Kh-101s from the Tu-160s). Tu-22M3 and Su-34 bombers from Russia flew to Syria to conduct air strikes. Also 98 sorties were flown from Hmeimeem. A total of 211 targets were struck.

Очень Ð¸Ð½Ñ„Ð¾Ñ€Ð¼Ð°Ñ‚Ð¸Ð²Ð½Ð°Ñ Ñ‚Ð°Ð±Ð»Ð¸Ñ‡ÐºÐ° - nortwolf_sam
Ð’Ð¾Ð·Ð´ÑƒÑˆÐ½Ð°Ñ Ð¾Ð¿ÐµÑ€Ð°Ñ†Ð¸Ñ Ð’ÐšÐ¡ РоÑÑии в Сирии продолжаетÑÑ - bmpd
Возмездие. - Блокнот военного милитариÑта

Iraq is bringing their Chieftain tanks out of retirement, as well as GHN-45 long-range artillery cannons. There's information suggesting that their AMX-10Ps are next.

Ирак: в бой пойдет вÑе - Берлога Бронемедведа
Иракцы воÑÑтанавливают 155-мм GHN-45 - Юрий ЛÑмин

Another photoset from Kuweiris.

Военкор ФÐРпрорвалÑÑ Ð² ÐšÐ²ÐµÐ¹Ñ€Ð¸Ñ Ð²Ð¼ÐµÑте Ñ ÑиÑийÑкой армией

Air strikes from the Charles de Gaulle are set to begin Monday. In the meantime they've established contact with the Russian military group in the area, regarding navigation, to avoid problems.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Ôðàíöóçñêèé àâèàíîñåö ãîòîâèòñÿ ê óäàðàì ïî ÈÃ, óñòàíîâèë ñâÿçü ñ âîåííûìè ÐÔ

 

[gf0012-aust]

Precision weapons would be a waste of money and time in this case.

guided kits can be added for less than $25 per item now..... not much difference in cost

add in the ratio of wastage and broad CEP with freefall against 24 x SDB's and you'd be surprised at how the effectiveness ratio changes.

you actually end up saving money per strike as you can achieve far greater for less

in fact 24 kits = less than the cost of a dumb iron bomb with a disproportionate increase in lethality....

 

[Feanor]

guided kits can be added for less than $25 per item now..... not much difference in cost

add in the ratio of wastage and broad CEP with freefall against 24 x SDB's and you'd be surprised at how the effectiveness ratio changes.

you actually end up saving money per strike as you can achieve far greater for less

in fact 24 kits = less than the cost of a dumb iron bomb with a disproportionate increase in lethality....

Does Russia have kits like that though? And let's not forget, many of these munitions are Soviet-vintage. Their service life is close to the end, and they need to be expended. Russia has already ended up with gigantic quantities of munitions past their service life. And due to improper storage, several giant arsenal fires have already occurred. The situation is so bad that Russia is acquiring fire-fighting tanks, unmanned ones, for dealing with those situations. Expending some of these munitions safely and productively, especially given the absence of guided alternatives, is a good idea.

 

[gf0012-aust]

Does Russia have kits like that though? And let's not forget, many of these munitions are Soviet-vintage. Their service life is close to the end, and they need to be expended. Russia has already ended up with gigantic quantities of munitions past their service life. And due to improper storage, several giant arsenal fires have already occurred. The situation is so bad that Russia is acquiring fire-fighting tanks, unmanned ones, for dealing with those situations. Expending some of these munitions safely and productively, especially given the absence of guided alternatives, is a good idea.

I'n not sure I'd want the EOD job in Russia if thats the case..... I would be assuming that they're using the current Syrian/Daesh conflict as an opportunity to clear old stocks

 

[Feanor]

I'n not sure I'd want the EOD job in Russia if thats the case..... I would be assuming that they're using the current Syrian/Daesh conflict as an opportunity to clear old stocks

They've been shipping old gear to Ukraine for over a year. They're similarly sending quite a bit to Syria. So yes. Actually both wars have also been used as opportunities to test out some of the newer toys in areas like EW/ELINT, and UAVs.

And in Russia ordinance disposal in planned circumstances is not done by specialized and dedicated EOD. Ordinary sappers do it at some of the empty ranges. They just drive the stuff out there, put it in a big pile, set a fuse, get to a safe distance, and go boom. It's my understanding they usually detonate the stuff in a hole to prevent shrapnel from going everywhere.

 

[gf0012-aust]

Cruise Missiles Make Psychological Impact on Terrorists, Expert Says

you don't need cruise missiles either - you just need PGM's

SDB's have been successfully employed against mobile and aggressively controlled vehicles - and delivered by high altitude assets

 

[chris]

guided kits can be added for less than $25 per item now..... not much difference in cost

add in the ratio of wastage and broad CEP with freefall against 24 x SDB's and you'd be surprised at how the effectiveness ratio changes.

you actually end up saving money per strike as you can achieve far greater for less

in fact 24 kits = less than the cost of a dumb iron bomb with a disproportionate increase in lethality....

Really? $25 per kit? I had no idea they became so cheap. I was thinking about thousands per kit. Well, you learn a new thing every day.

I guess that you are talking about US kits though. I doubt Russian systems have reached such maturity and cost yet. So for them it is probably cheaper to simply carpet bomb. And use old stockpiles as Feanor says.

 

[Feanor]

Update.

Syrian troops have retaken Mahin. It's significant because it opens the opportunity of an advance on Palmyra, and makes the Damascus-Homs highway relatively secure from rebel advance.

Significant ground has finally been gained in the Latakia mountains. After weeks of slowly chewing through rebel-held positions, government troops have now made several significant advances. See the map in the link, no major towns have fallen, but several smaller ones, and the rebel forces in several areas are faced with retreating or being surrounded. There's some photos from Latakia area, note the Russian-style flak and kevlar. It appears that the troops in that province were the main recipients of Russian gear.

The Kurds are also gaining ground in the north.

Отбили Махин - Colonel Cassad

There is unconfirmed info that Russian troops were involved in a ground-assault on Saklh-al-Gab, a small strongpoint between Latakia and Idlib. There is even a photo of a T-90A.

РоÑÑийÑкие войÑка взÑли штурмом позиции повÑтанцев вблизи Латакии | Военный информатор

In the north, they're advancing towards Han-Touman, south-west of Aleppo.

Отбили Махин - Colonel Cassad

The T-55MVs have been cropping up in combat in Syria. Acquire, likely from Ukraine, these are T-55 upgrades from the late 80s that have K-1 installed as well as an improved FCS and barrel-launched ATGM capability.

??????? ???????? :: ????????? ????????????????? ?-55?? ????????? ?????, ??? ????????? ??????????? ?-72

Some effective shots of Hinds firing missiles in Syria. Unclear whether Russian or Syrian. And a Tu-160 with Su-27SM3, allegedly over Syria.

Death from above - Берлога Бронемедведа
Ðад Сирией - Берлога Бронемедведа

An infographic on the French and allied deployment to the east Mediterranean. Too bad they don't list the airgroup on the Charles de Gaulle.

Инфоргафика Французов & Co. - Берлога Бронемедведа

 

[gf0012-aust]

Really? $25 per kit? I had no idea they became so cheap. I was thinking about thousands per kit. Well, you learn a new thing every day.

I guess that you are talking about US kits though. I doubt Russian systems have reached such maturity and cost yet. So for them it is probably cheaper to simply carpet bomb. And use old stockpiles as Feanor says.

economies of scale for volume - but its not a lot in the end for a girdle and guidance

 

[Feanor]

economies of scale for volume - but its not a lot in the end for a girdle and guidance

I think Russia has yet to develop a cheap and mass-produced PGM. The KAB-500 series are rumored to be expensive and relatively rare. You almost never see exercises with PGM use. They do occur but they are definitely the exception. And this war in Syria, at least so far, is too small and short-term to force the adoption of a cheap and effective PGM. Combine that with the fact that the ground push is done by foreigners, so even if the air strikes are less effective then desired, Russian troops won't be the ones to die for it. And of course the entire feedback loop is less effective when it's two different organizations.

On a side note, do you have any information on rumored Russian ground forces involvement in Latakia area? Supposedly they were involved in the assault on Sahl-al-Gab.

 

[gazzzwp]

Cruise Missiles Make Psychological Impact on Terrorists, Expert Says

Purely as a matter of interest is anyone aware if NATO has a credible defence against these missiles?

 

[2007yellow430]

Purely as a matter of interest is anyone aware if NATO has a credible defence against these missiles?

https://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/monograph_reports/MR1449/MR1449.ch3.pdf

Best I could find.

art

 

[Ranger25]

Purely as a matter of interest is anyone aware if NATO has a credible defence against these missiles?

The US and NATO have options. The PAC3 Patriot has this capability as does the MBDA Astor 15/30 series.

The US army has also deployed the C-RAM system for point base defense. C-RAM worked well when deployed in Afghan against incoming Arty/Mortar rounds but was not tested against other threats.


Also working on future upgrades for counter Air options.


New Launcher to Deploy C-RAM, C-UAV and Counter Cruise-Missile Defenses by 2019 | Defense Update:

 

[Toblerone]

So many advancements in just a few days, I guess the rebels' morale is crumbling. Where are their famous fierce counterattacks?

By the way, what happened with those russian-mediated peace talks with some rebel factions?

 

[gazzzwp]

Jet shot down by Turkey allegedly in violation of Turkish airspace. Origin of aircraft as yet unknown.

https://www.rt.com/news/323215-warplane-crash-syria-turkey/

 

[Feanor]

Update.

A plane has crashed in northern Syria near the Turkish border. Some sources are reporting it as a Russian fighter shot down by Turkey. Some sources claim it was a Syrian MiG-23 that was warned it was in Turkish airspace, then shot down. A pilot catapulted and was apprehended by the Turks. However others cite Russian MinDef, saying it was a Russian Su-24M, in Syrian airspace, shot down by ground fire.

In my opinion it's probably a Russian Su-24M. Two pilots, plus MinDef acknolwedgement outweighs reports from elsewhere.

Suriye sınırında Rus uçağı düşürüldü - CNN TÜRK
Ð’ Сирии Ñбит Ñамолет ВКС РФ - Ð”ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ñ ÐœÐ¾ÐºÑ€ÑƒÑˆÐ¸Ð½
Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Â Ñèðèè íà ãðàíèöå ñ Òóðöèåé ðàçáèëñÿ âîåííûé ñàìîëåò (ÂÈÄÅÎ)
ВВС Турции Ñбили неизвеÑтный иÑтребитель - Colonel Cassad
ТÐСС: Политика - Минобороны РФ: Су-24 роÑÑийÑкой авиагруппы предположительно был Ñбит в Сирии

Russian T-90 tanks have been spotted moving around inside Syria on tank transporters, allegedly near Aleppo. Note they are in plain green camo, not the desert yellow-green of the T-90s seen at Hmeimeem. Note, it's definitely a T-90A, not a T-72B3. There's at least 7 vehicles, and this may be a security force for an inland Russia base.

Т-90 под Ðлеппо? - Ð”ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ñ ÐœÐ¾ÐºÑ€ÑƒÑˆÐ¸Ð½
Análisis Militares: ¿ Es esto un tanque T-72B3 o un T-90 ?

It appears that the Rostov-na-Donu kilo sub did not launch it's cruise missiles yet, but we have confirmation that it was loaded up with them during it's visit to Kronstadt. It's likely that an announced Russian military exercise, closing a lot of the airspace in the eastern Mediterranean has something to do with the planned launch.

7 FeBeneath the Keel: Follow-Up 1: Why Did "Rostov-na-Donu" Return to the Baltic Sea?

Russian air strikes continue with 141 sorties striking 472 targets over Nov 21-22. No stated cruise missile launches, which means they've likely stopped for now.

Продолжение дейÑтвий ВКС РоÑÑии в Сирии - bmpd