War Against ISIS

gf0012-aust · Oct 16, 2015

Feanor said:
Could've been an accident. Between quality issues, and operator issues, they might've lost control of a longer-range UAV (Iranian origin perhaps) and it could have wandered into Turkish airspace, prompting the shoot down.

I've worked on various UAV projects and the one getting the rounds is not something designed for sustained use

its pretty poor construction and you can tell that the design philosophy is completely different in the way that its broken apart at various critical points

I'd argue that it hasn't been shot down at all - it seems to me to be a controller failure rather than a kinetic event

the way that its fallen apart would be completely different if struck because of the way that they done laminations.

bigger image would be better but the way its delaminated also indicates what materials were likely used as well. It all indicates a very quick production job and not a lot of experience in building large hobby sized RCS

gf0012-aust · Oct 16, 2015

Toblerone said:
BBC reports:
Turkey says its warplanes have shot down an unidentified aircraft which intruded into airspace near Syrian border

Was it an UAV maybe? I sure hope it wasnt a russian aircraft.

EDIT: seems it was a drone, heh

another example of crap journalism

look at the weapons fit on Turkish F-16's
look at an Orlan 10
Look at the way that the UAV has broken up

Its a control failure, not a weapons effect kill

Feanor · Oct 16, 2015

gf0012-aust said:
I've worked on various UAV projects and the one getting the rounds is not something designed for sustained use

its pretty poor construction and you can tell that the design philosophy is completely different in the way that its broken apart at various critical points

I'd argue that it hasn't been shot down at all - it seems to me to be a controller failure rather than a kinetic event

the way that its fallen apart would be completely different if struck because of the way that they done laminations.

bigger image would be better but the way its delaminated also indicates what materials were likely used as well. It all indicates a very quick production job and not a lot of experience in building large hobby sized RCS

Russian sources cite the Turkish military saying they warned the UAV 3 times, then shot it down with an F-16. If they're correct, this would mean it's the Turks trying to make an elephant out of a molehill.

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gf0012-aust · Oct 16, 2015

Feanor said:
Russian sources cite the Turkish military saying they warned the UAV 3 times, then shot it down with an F-16. If they're correct, this would mean it's the Turks trying to make an elephant out of a molehill.

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unless there are other images floating around - but thats not a shootdown

thats delaminated after falling from a great height

I'd suggest that the turks are colouring the event a tad

Feanor · Oct 16, 2015

gf0012-aust said:
unless there are other images floating around - but thats not a shootdown

thats delaminated after falling from a great height

I'd suggest that the turks are colouring the event a tad

Exactly what I'm getting at. The story we're getting isn't particularly true.

A.V. Berg · Oct 17, 2015

Blackshoe said:
Who says they have to come back? Even if they do live through their jihadi adventures, Russia, like Saudi Arabia, has the luxury (unlike Western democracies) of being able to allow these guys to go and not let them back in. That's a very powerful tool.

I don't think Russian security services could possibly know every member of ISIS by name. So, if Russian citizens leave and return legally, not much can be done. Bear in mind that Russia is the only developed Western nation facing a Jihadist insurgency which predates present Middle Eastern imbroglio by almost two decades. Only resently, some ISIS operatives were arrested in Russia.

This problem further compounded by the fact that there are over seven thousand ISIS fighters from the former Soviet Central Asian republics. This is a particularly pressing issue because citizens of these countries can enter Russia without a visa and minimum of background checks or illegally, as hundreds of thousands of them do every year.

Ranger25 · Oct 17, 2015

A.V. Berg said:
I don't think Russian security services could possibly know every member of ISIS by name. So, if Russian citizens leave and return legally, not much can be done. Bear in mind that Russia is the only developed Western nation facing a Jihadist insurgency which predates present Middle Eastern imbroglio by almost two decades. Only resently, some ISIS operatives were arrested in Russia.

This problem further compounded by the fact that there are over seven thousand ISIS fighters from the former Soviet Central Asian republics. This is a particularly pressing issue because citizens of these countries can enter Russia without a visa and minimum of background checks or illegally, as hundreds of thousands of them do every year.

Perhaps another reason VVP has decided engaged, similar to Bush Doctrine IMO. Fight them at their homes, not on your own shores

Feanor · Oct 19, 2015

alexkvaskov · Oct 19, 2015

Feanor said:
Russian MinDef map of Syrian war. The grey is ISIS, the green is Al-Nusra. Note the absence of the FSA.

It's at the bottom left - CCA in Cyrillic characters.

t68 · Oct 19, 2015

Feanor said:
Russian sources cite the Turkish military saying they warned the UAV 3 times, then shot it down with an F-16. If they're correct, this would mean it's the Turks trying to make an elephant out of a molehill.

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How do you warn a UAV of an imminent shoot down, can UAV operates respond to local radio transmissions?

gf0012-aust · Oct 19, 2015

t68 said:
How do you warn a UAV of an imminent shoot down, can UAV operates respond to local radio transmissions?

They can try and communicate on open channel assuming that russian controllers are monitoring the spectrum - or they assume that the russian controller has visuals and then they do an overt challenge understood by all

an inability to go direct on voice does not restrict options

wittmanace · Oct 19, 2015

Thanks for the update, interesting as always. Zaslon have been reported in Syria for a few years already:

Russian Zaslon Special Operations - Business Insider
I assume it's for embassy evacuation and document etc destruction of the proverbial hits the fan for Assad.

I guess there might be more reasons now, though.

wittmanace · Oct 19, 2015

alexkvaskov said:
It's at the bottom left - CCA in Cyrillic characters.

I don't think the CCA refers to the "Free Syrian Army", as the map shows them in Israel and southern Lebanon.

Feanor · Oct 19, 2015

wittmanace said:
I don't think the CCA refers to the "Free Syrian Army", as the map shows them in Israel and southern Lebanon.

I'm assuming he was being sarcastic.

gf0012-aust said:
They can try and communicate on open channel assuming that russian controllers are monitoring the spectrum - or they assume that the russian controller has visuals and then they do an overt challenge understood by all

an inability to go direct on voice does not restrict options

Given that the original claim was "we shot down a plane" and the pictures show that what really happened was "a UAV fell", how much do we want to believe claims that they "warned it 3 times"? The entire thing smells funny.

gf0012-aust · Oct 19, 2015

Feanor said:
Given that the original claim was "we shot down a plane" and the pictures show that what really happened was "a UAV fell", how much do we want to believe claims that they "warned it 3 times"? The entire thing smells funny.

I am assuming that they "warned it 3 times" is a crock of the proverbial.....

all sounds like bad dissemination to me

Goknub · Oct 19, 2015

It looks like a good use of events by a PR/psyops team.

The Russians won't likely counter because they either don't want to admit they were there, or that their drone crashed. So Turkey gets to look tough standing up to the Russians and the Russians are left rolling their eyes in silence.

gf0012-aust · Oct 19, 2015

Goknub said:
It looks like a good use of events by a PR/psyops team.

The Russians won't likely counter because they either don't want to admit they were there, or that their drone crashed. So Turkey gets to look tough standing up to the Russians and the Russians are left rolling their eyes in silence.

some analyst would have been all over that image and worked out the manufacturer of the engine and the design (which is very much like a signature)

the prop would also be a clue

Feanor · Oct 19, 2015

gf0012-aust said:
some analyst would have been all over that image and worked out the manufacturer of the engine and the design (which is very much like a signature)

the prop would also be a clue

The Turkish Prime Minister says the UAV is of Russian manufacture, but not Russian ownership. It may belong to Assad, Syrian Kurds, or to "other forces". He also said he hopes Russia will be more careful.

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Meanwhile John Kerry is meeting with Russia, Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Jordan, about the situation in Syria.

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A.V. Berg · Oct 20, 2015

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A photo of another ex-Turkish merchant ship purchased for the Russian Navy to serve in the Syrian Express.

Things must be really desperate on the logistics front. Somewhat remeniscent of the 1950s, when the Soviet Navy almost exclusively relied on the merchant fleet to get things and people moved.

Feanor · Oct 20, 2015

A.V. Berg said:
Ð•Ñ‰Ðµ Ð¾Ð´Ð½Ð¾ Ð±Ñ‹Ð²ÑˆÐµÐµ Ñ‚ÑƒÑ€ÐµÑ†ÐºÐ¾Ðµ ÑÑƒÐ´Ð½Ð¾ Ð´Ð»Ñ "Ð¡Ð¸Ñ€Ð¸Ð¹ÑÐºÐ¾Ð³Ð¾ ÑÐºÑÐ¿Ñ€ÐµÑÑÐ°" - bmpd

A photo of another ex-Turkish merchant ship purchased for the Russian Navy to serve in the Syrian Express.

Things must be really desperate on the logistics front. Somewhat remeniscent of the 1950s, when the Soviet Navy almost exclusively relied on the merchant fleet to get things and people moved.

They've bought a total of 8 Turkish ships that will get VMF support vessel status, making it impossible to stop, inspect, or attack them, without attacking Russia itself. This one is called Vologda-50. Let's not forget that the VMF actually ordered logistical support vessels, namely project 23120. A set of 3 is ordered so far, but it's planned that every fleet will get them, so I'm guessing at least 4 probably more. They have Arc4, so they can be used for Arctic missions quite well, and are based on the Gazprom fleet of similar vessels but built to VMF specifications. They can apparently carry 2000 tonns of cargo.

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War Against ISIS

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