War Against ISIS

[swerve]

A few differences, though. Saddam Hussein was in control of Iraq, with no serious internal threats, when Iraq was invaded in 2003. After total defeat provoked by his attempt to conquer Kuwait in 1990, he successfully crushed a major Shia rebellion. He acted brutally & decisively.

Assad faced demonstrations in favour of democracy, & by utter incompetence, turned them into a rebellion which threatened his position. He acted brutally, but with no focus, indecisively, & tried to be far too clever, letting the Islamist extremists flourish unopposed to start with, to justify his claim that they were the main threat. By doing that, he gave Daesh freedom to become what he claimed, & turned them into an existential threat to his state. He was losing the war when the Russians started helping him.

The Western aid to the moderate opposition has been pretty ineffective, & I don't think it's had a great impact on the war. Western aid to Kurds fighting Daesh, & the (modest) bombing of Daesh, has probably had at least as much impact, & in the opposite direction.

The big problems with backing Assad aren't primarily his brutality & lack of legitimacy, but his duplicity, & even more his incompetence. That's not a combination that inspires confidence.

Hussein survived bloody internal feuding in the Baath party, & fought his way to the top in Iraq, just as Assad's father did in Syria. Both knew how to hang on to power against any internal threat. Nasty, but within their limitations, capable.
The younger Assad inherited power, having done nothing to earn it, & I think it shows. His impact on the military has probably been negative, appointing loyalists to command regardless of competence, because he lacked (having no military experience himself: he was fast-tracked through the military academy in his 30s) respect from the officer corps, so didn't dare leave independent-minded officers in place.

He might not be as bad as either of the Hussein brothers would have been in Iraq, though.

 

[Pirilampo]

A few differences, though. Saddam Hussein was in control of Iraq, with no serious internal threats, when Iraq was invaded in 2003. After total defeat provoked by his attempt to conquer Kuwait in 1990, he successfully crushed a major Shia rebellion. He acted brutally & decisively.

Assad faced demonstrations in favour of democracy, & by utter incompetence, turned them into a rebellion which threatened his position. He acted brutally, but with no focus, indecisively, & tried to be far too clever, letting the Islamist extremists flourish unopposed to start with, to justify his claim that they were the main threat. By doing that, he gave Daesh freedom to become what he claimed, & turned them into an existential threat to his state. He was losing the war when the Russians started helping him.

The Western aid to the moderate opposition has been pretty ineffective, & I don't think it's had a great impact on the war. Western aid to Kurds fighting Daesh, & the (modest) bombing of Daesh, has probably had at least as much impact, & in the opposite direction.

The big problems with backing Assad aren't primarily his brutality & lack of legitimacy, but his duplicity, & even more his incompetence. That's not a combination that inspires confidence.

Hussein survived bloody internal feuding in the Baath party, & fought his way to the top in Iraq, just as Assad's father did in Syria. Both knew how to hang on to power against any internal threat. Nasty, but within their limitations, capable.
The younger Assad inherited power, having done nothing to earn it, & I think it shows. His impact on the military has probably been negative, appointing loyalists to command regardless of competence, because he lacked (having no military experience himself: he was fast-tracked through the military academy in his 30s) respect from the officer corps, so didn't dare leave independent-minded officers in place.

He might not be as bad as either of the Hussein brothers would have been in Iraq, though.

I didnt know about the Assad competence like I didnt know how works the Syrian congress (parlament?). But probably he not adimistre by himself at all, yes? What we know about his staff?

 

[Feanor]

uncorroborated:

Bodies of 26 Russian marines killed in Syria brought back to Sevastopol: Ukrainian Intelligence
By UNIAN 20.10.2015
Oct 22, 2015 - 10:26:52 AM

There are all kinds crazy stories floating around on the Ukrainian internet. Given the "kill Russians, help ISIS" party that Ukrainian commentators threw when the first youtube videos of Russian jets surfaced, it's hardly surprising. I would disregard anything coming out of Ukraine until independent confirmation is obtained.

 

[Feanor]

A few differences, though. Saddam Hussein was in control of Iraq, with no serious internal threats, when Iraq was invaded in 2003. After total defeat provoked by his attempt to conquer Kuwait in 1990, he successfully crushed a major Shia rebellion. He acted brutally & decisively.

Assad faced demonstrations in favour of democracy, & by utter incompetence, turned them into a rebellion which threatened his position. He acted brutally, but with no focus, indecisively, & tried to be far too clever, letting the Islamist extremists flourish unopposed to start with, to justify his claim that they were the main threat. By doing that, he gave Daesh freedom to become what he claimed, & turned them into an existential threat to his state. He was losing the war when the Russians started helping him.

The Western aid to the moderate opposition has been pretty ineffective, & I don't think it's had a great impact on the war. Western aid to Kurds fighting Daesh, & the (modest) bombing of Daesh, has probably had at least as much impact, & in the opposite direction.

The big problems with backing Assad aren't primarily his brutality & lack of legitimacy, but his duplicity, & even more his incompetence. That's not a combination that inspires confidence.

Hussein survived bloody internal feuding in the Baath party, & fought his way to the top in Iraq, just as Assad's father did in Syria. Both knew how to hang on to power against any internal threat. Nasty, but within their limitations, capable.
The younger Assad inherited power, having done nothing to earn it, & I think it shows. His impact on the military has probably been negative, appointing loyalists to command regardless of competence, because he lacked (having no military experience himself: he was fast-tracked through the military academy in his 30s) respect from the officer corps, so didn't dare leave independent-minded officers in place.

He might not be as bad as either of the Hussein brothers would have been in Iraq, though.

Honestly, I think this is the strongest argument against Assad under current circumstances. So the question then becomes, what to do? Leave him as a figure head for stability's sake, and quietly hand over the war effort to others? But that's already happening to a large extent. Iranian and Russian general staff are actively taking over planning the war effort. Replace him now? But that would require a figure Russia and Iran can trust and feel comfortable with. By necessity an anti-western figure. And will the west ever approve an anti-western replacement for Assad? And then of course there's the Saudis and Co. whose support for ISIS isn't simply an anti-Assad gesture, I get the feeling that it runs much deeper and is tied into the nature of the Saudi elites. Is the west willing to face the reality that Saudi Arabia is becoming their enemy? That the anti-Assad position of the Saudis is radically and incompatibly different from the anti-Assad position of the West? And is the middle of a desperate war for the very survival of a secular Syria, the right time to try and replace an entrenched dictator with powerful Russian and Iranian support?

 

[wittmanace]

An interesting point is Assad's trajectory. He came in as a reformer at first. It seems he didn't have the strength or power for it. Much like when people discuss Zimbabwe and incorrectly believe Mugabe is the supreme power, the reality in Syria seems to be more that the head of state is in many ways a figurehead with limits on power and that there is more of an inner circle and military junta really deciding things. I suspect this is the case in Syria, and that assertions about Assad this and Assad that are wide of the mark as a result. The real deciders, power holders and string pullers in Syria are the inner circle much like a military junta. Assad is the figurehead, but it doesn't mean it really is the case he is in the mould he is often presented as, a dictator who has absolute rule and runs the country by his decisions and decrees. I wonder, to what degree can he decide against the ruling elite's decisions and will?

 

[old faithful]

Read an interesting article written in 2005 on 7 easy steps to form a caliphate.
It seems to be going to plan.
The "invasion" phase, placeing troops in every corner of the world is taking place right now.
The "troops" are not even aware of how they are being used yet.
Most are genuineally fleeing from the terror of ISIS and Assad.

What "their" (extreamist islamists) plan is now, is to turn the public of the countries taking in these refugees against them( the refugees), forcing them to choose a side, Islam, or the west.

Expect some absolutluly horrific events commited in the name of Islam in the west very soon. These acts will be performed to provoke physical retaliation from normal members of the public in the west, and force muslims, most normal and sane people to hate the west they are forced to live in, thus becoming an ally of the very people they were fleeing from.

Unfortunately, I really believe this their aim, and will happen. Nationalistic youth becoming vigilantes.

 

[Toblerone]

Al-Qaeda leader in Syria is killed after being shot in the head during Aleppo gun battle with Assad forces in a 'devastating blow' to terror group

Al-Qaeda leader in Syria killed after being shot in the head during Aleppo battle | Daily Mail Online

Things must be hairy I guess. But is the Assad coalition's offensive in full force still or has it run out of steam? They always seem to be hampered by lack of manpower.

 

[Feanor]

Al-Qaeda leader in Syria is killed after being shot in the head during Aleppo gun battle with Assad forces in a 'devastating blow' to terror group

Al-Qaeda leader in Syria killed after being shot in the head during Aleppo battle | Daily Mail Online

Things must be hairy I guess. But is the Assad coalition's offensive in full force still or has it run out of steam? They always seem to be hampered by lack of manpower.

They're still pushing but it's not clear what exactly is happening on the ground. If someone has reliable info on the disposition of sides, I'd appreciate it.

 

[barney41]

Apparently the high tempo of Russian airstrikes is starting to wear on Putin's expeditionary force. So will Putin escalate and expand the Russian forces while he continues to try and set up some sort of diplomatic fix? No one seems interested in the latter.


Harsh conditions are foiling Russian jets in Syria

Harsh conditions are foiling Russian jets in Syria


WASHINGTON – Russian warplanes sent to Syria to back the regime of Bashar Assad are breaking down at a rapid rate that appears to be affecting their ability to strike targets, according to a senior Defense official.

Nearly one-third of Russian attack planes and half of its transport aircraft are grounded at any time as the harsh, desert conditions take a toll on equipment and crews, said the official who was not authorized to speak publicly about sensitive intelligence matters.
The Russians appear to be having difficulty adapting to the dusty conditions, and the number of airstrikes they have conducted seems to have dipped slightly.
"For deployed forces, that's a hideous rate," said Richard Aboulafia, an aviation analyst at the Teal Group, an aerospace consulting firm...They could have bad operating procedures, inadequate supplies of spare parts and support crews," Aboulafia said.An awful lot of expeditionary warfare revolves around logistics," Aboulafia said. "A lot of it comes down to experience. They don't have that much of it."
David Deptula, a retired three-star Air Force general who led planning for the air war in Operation Desert Storm, said the rates for American fighters in combat zones has been above 90%. The readiness rate of 70% for Russian fighters isn't surprising, he said, because they lack experience being deployed and have been flying their jets hard. He called their rates for cargo planes, "pretty low."
"If those rates are accurate, it indicates that their deployed logistics function requires some attention," Deptula said.

 

[Feanor]

Apparently the high tempo of Russian airstrikes is starting to wear on Putin's expeditionary force. So will Putin escalate and expand the Russian forces while he continues to try and set up some sort of diplomatic fix? No one seems interested in the latter.


Harsh conditions are foiling Russian jets in Syria

Harsh conditions are foiling Russian jets in Syria


WASHINGTON – Russian warplanes sent to Syria to back the regime of Bashar Assad are breaking down at a rapid rate that appears to be affecting their ability to strike targets, according to a senior Defense official.

Nearly one-third of Russian attack planes and half of its transport aircraft are grounded at any time as the harsh, desert conditions take a toll on equipment and crews, said the official who was not authorized to speak publicly about sensitive intelligence matters.
The Russians appear to be having difficulty adapting to the dusty conditions, and the number of airstrikes they have conducted seems to have dipped slightly.
"For deployed forces, that's a hideous rate," said Richard Aboulafia, an aviation analyst at the Teal Group, an aerospace consulting firm...They could have bad operating procedures, inadequate supplies of spare parts and support crews," Aboulafia said.An awful lot of expeditionary warfare revolves around logistics," Aboulafia said. "A lot of it comes down to experience. They don't have that much of it."
David Deptula, a retired three-star Air Force general who led planning for the air war in Operation Desert Storm, said the rates for American fighters in combat zones has been above 90%. The readiness rate of 70% for Russian fighters isn't surprising, he said, because they lack experience being deployed and have been flying their jets hard. He called their rates for cargo planes, "pretty low."
"If those rates are accurate, it indicates that their deployed logistics function requires some attention," Deptula said.

It's a very interesting statement. For the VVS readiness rates of 70% in a warzone sounds quite good, but perhaps I'm mistaken. As for tempo, we have a nice chart based on what public info we have. If you look at the graph on the bottom of the image, the red line is targets struck, the blue is sorties.

Итоги первого меÑÑца учаÑÑ‚Ð¸Ñ Ð’ÐšÐ¡ РоÑÑии в опÐрациÑÑ… в Сирии - bmpd

 

[Toblerone]

Sound like the standard western attempts to devalue Russia's strength and assertiveness. Like they were focusing on the effect of the sanctions on the russian economy while Crimea was annexed without a drop of blood and Ukraine brought to the ground while Russia played the plausible deniability card again and again.

Personally, as long as there is
1) no loss of manned airplane due to accident or enemy fire
2) no outright mistake causing friendly fire or civilian massacre
3) no aircraft type being grounded due to equipment problems
4) no serious drop in operation intensity

I consider it a successful deployment of air assets.

 

[gf0012-aust]

pretty pictures - uncorroborated

http://theaviationist.com/2015/10/2...l-we-know-about-the-russian-air-war-in-syria/

 

[Feanor]

Update

The Iranian report 24 dead over the past 3 weeks, in Syria. The numbers may be incorrect, or may be evidence of the scale of involvement.

24 иранца погибло в в Сирии за поÑледние три недели - Юрий ЛÑмин

Some info and footage of coalition air strikes against ISIS. On the chart red is Iraq, and blue is Syria. Note info on Syria post 10-23 is absent.

#Че там у коалиции.: sandrermakoff

Russian airforce flew 59 sorties striking 94 targets (a new high) over Oct 26th. What's interesting is the mention of striking a rebel vehicle column. Previously they were only bombing fixed targets.

Продолжение дейÑтвий ВКС РоÑÑии в Сирии - bmpd

The Syrian express continues to grow, with the addition of Kazan-60, yet another ex-Turkish cargo hauler, but also with the addition of the Sayani, a Pacific Fleet rescue ship whose crane equipment and large cargo space make it useful as a transport.

Судно "Казань-60" Ð´Ð»Ñ "СирийÑкого ÑкÑпреÑÑа" - bmpd

A look at ISIS tunnels built around and underneath Baiji. These sorts of tunnels have become standard in this war.

Ðоры - Военный Блог

Old Soviet S-23 long range heavy artillery has been sighted in Syria. They have extremely long range for a conventional artillery piece, but a very slow rate of fire.

СирийÑÐºÐ°Ñ "Ð±Ð¾Ð»ÑŒÑˆÐ°Ñ Ð¿ÑƒÑˆÐºÐ°" - Берлога Бронемедведа

Not well sourced information is showing up that Russian Borisoglebsk-2 EW complexes have been deployed to Syria, 9 MT-LB vehicles with them. I'm not well familiar with the system, so I don't know if the system fits in a single vehicle, or requires several (for example it coul be 3 complexes of 3 vehicles each, or even 1 complex of 9 vehicles). Let me remind you, they already have some Il-18 variant over there (though probably a reconnaissance/ELINT), and the Krasuha-4 EW.

СириÑ: войны РЭБ - Берлога Бронемедведа

 

[Feanor]

First confirmation of Russian casualties. A service member of 960th Ground-Attack Regiment, Vadim Kostenko, died in Syria on Oct 24th. It's unclear whether his death was a result of an accident that occurred, since the MoD confirmed that there was an accident involving at least one fatality, and heavy black smoke was seen coming up from the airbase the previous day (Oct 23rd). The death may have been the result of shelling, since the Hmeimeem air base has been shelled. It's even possible that the shelling has caused detonation of some of the munitions stored there, since hardened munition storage facilities are still under construction.

He was, from all appearances, ground crew for the Su-25SMs. There is unconfirmed information on 9 more deaths (basically a rumors) from the same unit. The soldier in question was a contract soldier.

English language link.

First confirmed death of a Russian serviceman in Syria: ruslanleviev

EDIT: The President's press secretary Dmitriy Peskov in the Kremlin said "they didn't know anything" about the death of this soldier, although earlier it was said that one Russian soldier died in Syria due to an accident involving improper weapon handling. A later statement from the MoD said the soldier committed suicide, specifically referring to Vadim Kostenko. Representatives of the MoD told the family he hung himself.

Meanwhile the US says Russian Special Forces are in Syria, referring (as best as I can tell) to the new Special Operations Command, not the GRU SpetzNaz.

http://newsru.com/russia/27oct2015/sld.html

EDIT2: The Syrian offensive has stalled, and al-Nusra and ISIS have organized local counter-attacks.

Meanwhile Lavrov has stated that Russia will increase efforts and take all measures to defeat terrorism. I think we will see additional Russian deployments there. They're already operating planes, helos, special forces, and most likely some artillery. A bigger aerial deployment would be hard to support. They're barely pulling what they have now, though once all 8 of the new transports are up and running things may get a little better. I suspect we will see a bigger presence on the ground, either in the form of specialized support assets (Iskanders, more TOS-1As) or boots on the ground in the form of SpetzNaz or Special Operations Command assets.

http://sokol-ff.livejournal.com/1114461.html

And Iran has handed over Misagh MANPADS to Hezbollah, in a very strange move. Given that ISIS has not aircraft, and the coalition isn't bombing Assad, it's likely they're aimed at deterring or punishing Israeli air strikes. Though honestly I can't help but wonder how much good they will do, since the Syrians weren't able to make good use of the much more modern Buk-M2, and Pantsyr-1S.

http://military-informant.com/c55-p...-perenosnyie-raketnyie-kompleksyi-misagh.html

 

[gazzzwp]

US considering embedding troops in Iraq.

Pentagon weighs deeper Iraq involvement | TheHill

Make no mistake, every nation involved in this conflagration has an ulterior motive.

In the case of the US, I would think it would be more about countering the alliance between the Iran, Syria and Russia..

 

[Feanor]

US considering embedding troops in Iraq.

Pentagon weighs deeper Iraq involvement | TheHill

Make no mistake, every nation involved in this conflagration has an ulterior motive.

In the case of the US, I would think it would be more about countering the alliance between the Iran, Syria and Russia..

Potentially preventing Iraq from ending up in bed with Syria, Russia, and Iran, out of sheer desperation. The whole F-16 delivery delay business certainly doesn't inspire Iraqi confidence in the US. I think that US involvement on the ground in some form is likely to resume, in Iraq in particular, which still retains ties with the US.

 

[Feanor]

Update.

There are reports that ISIS has cut the Syrian supply line towards Aleppo, between Atria and Hanzer (I'm transliterating the names from Russian, my own efforts on Google Maps have failed to locate the towns mentioned).

http://panzerbar.livejournal.com/2934791.html

Russian press is trumpeting about success in Syria, listing 120 sq. kms liberated, including 50 towns and villages, around Aleppo, but Aleppo itself is in rebel hands.

There are also reports that al-Nursa is getting aid from inside Turkey.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Àðìèÿ Ñèðèè îñâîáîäèëà 50 íàñåëåííûõ ïóíêòîâ â ïðîâèíöèè Àëåïïî è óíè÷òîæèëà 60 áîåâèêîâ â Èäëèáå

Meanwhile, as the government offensive has stalled, Russian artillery was seen on the move east of the city of Latakia. It's a Msta-B howitzer unit, a comm-variant BTR-80, a regular BTR-80, and some trucks. It's likely an artillery battery with security element, and I don't know the direction of movement, but it could be headed to provide fire support to government troops, or potentially to a secondary Russian position in-land.

Ð’ Латакии.. - Юрий ЛÑмин

The body of the Russian soldier who allegedly committed suicide in Syria has arrived in Russia, but the relatives say the injuries are not consistent with the story they were told. The entire situation is messy, it has occurred before where relatives who saw the body post-autopsy reported "injuries inconsistent with suicide", but photography of the body pre-autopsy shows that no such injuries were present, in other words poor handling of the dead body had been the culprit in that case.

The official investigation, based on text messages sent and received by the service-member concluded that he committed suicide due to relationship issues with his girlfriend.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Òåëî ïîãèáøåãî â Ñèðèè êîíòðàêòíèêà Êîñòåíêî äîñòàâèëè íà ðîäèíó
ПонеÑлоÑÑŒ... - Берлога Бронемедведа
Ð*емарка - Ð”ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ñ ÐœÐ¾ÐºÑ€ÑƒÑˆÐ¸Ð½

Some photos of the desolation that remains in the wake of ISIS retreat from Baiji. Potentially, this will be the condition of any urban strong-point held by ISIS. A sobering perspective.

Удары по командным центрам и опорным пунктам - Военный Блог

At least one of the Syrian Express cargo ships recently purchased is actually a former Ukrainian ship (before that Soviet). Possibly more. It wasought through a middleman, but it's likely the seller knew where the ship was going.

До Ñлёз... - Вахтенный журнал Ñтареющего пирата

 

[wsb05]

Update.

There are reports that ISIS has cut the Syrian supply line towards Aleppo, between Atria and Hanzer (I'm transliterating the names from Russian, my own efforts on Google Maps have failed to locate the towns mentioned).

КонтрнаÑтупление - Берлога Бронемедведа

Attached you find the areas in question. I believe ISIS fighters already fled back to the desert in more than one point.
Nusra is too weak after Russian bombing and engaged on multiple fronts.

 

[Nick underscore]

Maybe a shift? Airstrikes (believed to be Russian) hit the southern province of Deraa on Wednesday night, in the areas of Tal Antar, Kafr Nasaj, Aqraba and Tel al-Harah. The last being less than 20 km (12 miles) from the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights.

Russian air strikes in Deraa

 

[Feanor]

Updates.

Russian air strikes have intensified, flying 71 sorties and striking a record high 118 targets. They're clearly doing not only multiple targets per sortie but also recon work, and the combat loads carried have notable increased. Morever even the Su-30SMs have been used to strike ground targets, albeit with allegedly unguided munitions. Given that they do not carry the advanced SVP-24, the accuracy and utility of such strikes is questionable. Moreover it raises big questions as to why they were not carrying PGMs. So far they have provided frequent and regular use of PGMs for the Su-34 fleet (mainly the KAB-500S satellite guided bomb). Kh-25 and 29 rockets were also used, although clearly not as frequently.

A note, the recently purchased Turkish and Ukrainian ships for the Syrian express have yet to fully join in the operation. The first ship, Dvinnitsa-50, is only now headed in it's first voyage to Syria, the rest are still awaiting crews, and the total number of ships is still unclear, although the regularly named figure is 8.

Су-30СМ Ñ Ð±Ð¾Ð¼Ð±Ð¾Ð²Ð¾Ð¹ нагрузкой - Ð”ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ñ ÐœÐ¾ÐºÑ€ÑƒÑˆÐ¸Ð½
ИнтенÑÐ¸Ñ„Ð¸ÐºÐ°Ñ†Ð¸Ñ Ð¾Ð¿ÐµÑ€Ð°Ñ†Ð¸Ð¸ ВКС Ð*оÑÑии в Сирии 28 октÑÐ±Ñ€Ñ - bmpd

An ISIS offensive has begun in Iraq, against the city of Samarra, where Iraqi lines have been broken, and parts of the city have been taken. This threatens supply lines of the Iraqi army in Baiji, and seems to follow a similar pattern to the ISIS offensive against Syrian supply lines near Aleppo.

At the same time a rocket strike, using 15 Grad rockets was carried out against the Baghdad airport, fired from Bakriya. It's unclear what the extent of the damage is, but fires have been burning and explosions were heard.

Удар по Багдаду - Военный Блог

Negotiations in Vienna are continuing about the future of Syria, and there is information coming out that the US may be amenable to allowing Assad to remain in office, at least for now. Given that his removal on a practical level seems off the table, with Russian and Iranian involvement and considering that what moderate opposition once may have been is dead and buried now, this is the practical solution.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: ÑÌÈ ñîîáùèëè î ñìåíå ïîçèöèè ÑØÀ ïî ïîâîäó Áàøàðà Àñàäà

SOHR says 595 people have died as a result of Russian air strikes. SOHR documented the deaths of 131 ISIS fighters, 279 other rebel fighters, and 185 civilian dead.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Ïðàâîçàùèòíèêè íàñ÷èòàëè ïî÷òè 600 æåðòâ óäàðîâ ðîññèéñêîé àâèàöèè çà ìåñÿö îïåðàöèè ÐÔ â Ñèðèè

Russian RPO-A and MR thermobaric rocket launchers have shown up in Syria. RPO-As were noted earlier, but the MRO-A is a newcomer.

Ð*ПО-Ри ÐœÐ*О-Рв Сирии - Юрий ЛÑмин