War Against ISIS

[STURM]

It has nothing to do with money. More to do with recognition; as in the political aspect that although it has been labelled as a terrorist organisation; countries are forced to have dealings with it. Access to cash is not one of the problems facing IS (at least not yet), they still sell oil, collect taxes and receive funding from abroad.

Ironically, IS would have benefited if the recent attack by Hezbollah (on Israeli troops in Lebanese territory) resulted in Israel going into south Lebanon again; Hezbollah would have had to weaken its presence in Syria and Assad would be spending more time looking over his shoulders.

 

[bdique]

Okay, so IS wants recognition, but at this stage from who? You behead citizens of a nation with no expeditionary capability, whose nation's only involvement in the region is financing humanitarian projects...who is IS trying to impress here?

If anything, I have a niggling suspicion that Abe might use this to push for a reinterpretation of Article 9 to allow for more kinetic operations abroad, but this is just my gut feel.

 

[RobWilliams]

If anything, I have a niggling suspicion that Abe might use this to push for a reinterpretation of Article 9 to allow for more kinetic operations abroad, but this is just my gut feel.

Agreed, worded along the lines of the JSDF has a duty to protect Japanese citizens abroad or something like that I'd imagine.

 

[My2Cents]

Okay, so IS wants recognition, but at this stage from who? You behead citizens of a nation with no expeditionary capability, whose nation's only involvement in the region is financing humanitarian projects...who is IS trying to impress here?

The point is to get headlines in the world press (if it bleeds, it leads). Plus their recruits seem to get off on the snuff videos, every time they post one recruitment peaks.

The demands in this case were so extravagant that it seems they wanted them rejected, just so they could kill their first Japanese. Wonder if we will see a similar action each time they capture the first group of people from another country, ethnicity, or religion.

 

[Waylander]

Meanwhile the German parliament officially voted yes for the already ongoing instructor mission in support of the Iraqi peshmerga with 100 of our soldiers on the ground in northern Iraq.

It is a first for german defense politics as it is the first oversea mission after WWII which is neither a UNO nor a NATO mission.

There are also talks of additional supplies getting send to the Kurds including more ammunition and MILAN ATGMs.

 

[bdique]

The point is to get headlines in the world press (if it bleeds, it leads). Plus their recruits seem to get off on the snuff videos, every time they post one recruitment peaks.

The demands in this case were so extravagant that it seems they wanted them rejected, just so they could kill their first Japanese. Wonder if we will see a similar action each time they capture the first group of people from another country, ethnicity, or religion.

What a messed up recruitment/PR campaign. Its as if they don't mind pissing on the global community so long as it ensures that they can continue to get recruits from disenfranchised Iraqi/Syrian communities. I've no idea how effective is their international recruitment campaign though I assume that these foreign fighters only compromise a small but significant minority.

Regarding impossible demands, I suspect IS is just trying their luck, hoping to strike a literal pot of gold should some nation may actually accede to their ridiculous requests. As you mentioned...these captives are probably more useful dead than alive.

Agreed, worded along the lines of the JSDF has a duty to protect Japanese citizens abroad or something like that I'd imagine.

The BBC has just released a news article on this issue. (BBC News - Japan hostage killing: Critical test for PM Shinzo Abe) I'm increasingly certain that a reinterpretation is on its way.

 

[STURM]

There's something I don't understand. IS is basically aggravating the most hawkish Japanese premier in a while.

The fact that he was 'hawkish' made no difference to ISIS. It has already 'aggravated' the West; what can Japan do to IS that others can't?

Its as if they don't mind pissing on the global community so long as it ensures that they can continue to get recruits from disenfranchised Iraqi/Syrian communities.

IS is prepared to fight for decades to achieve its aims. It doesn't care at all what the international community thinks. What will make the key difference is when people who support IS or who have sympathy with its aims; feel differently; unfortunately that's not going to happen soon.

It's not about cash or about feeding the morbid fetishes of its members. IS is more sophisticated than that: it was to send a message [2 actually] that despite all the efforts to destroy it, IS can still do stuff like this and get way with it; and that various states still have to have dealings with it. There are also other reasons behind the beheadings. The recognition IS wants is from those who it deems are its enemies .....

Isis hostage crisis: The prisoner swap has only one purpose for the militants - Voices - The Independent

What a messed up recruitment/PR campaign.

Actually, if you stop and think about it, IS been running a very effective campaign: there may not be hundreds of thousands worldwide rushing to join IS but there are many, many people who harbour sympathy for it and there are groups and individuals abroad who continue to support IS. IS knows exactly the kind of audiance it wants to target and how to go about doing it. In fact, I would argue that IS has been doing a better PR job than many of its opponents.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/w...e-while-under-attack-in-baghdad-10009778.html

 

[RobWilliams]

The UK has deployed an E-3D to be based in Cyprus to help coordinate coalition aircraft.

UK RAF deploys AWACS against Islamic State - IHS Jane's 360

"RAF sources" have also reportedly told Janes that the UK Govt is considering deploying 'additional ISTAR assets' within the next few weeks which'll probably be Sentinel.

TD has a good article about UK weapons releases during January in Iraq, the results are that Reaper is doing as much as Tornado is in theatre which isn't - IMO - surprising.

Slim Pickings in Iraq - Think Defence

 

[RobWilliams]

The UK has deployed an E-3D to be based in Cyprus to help coordinate coalition aircraft.

UK RAF deploys AWACS against Islamic State - IHS Jane's 360

"RAF sources" have also reportedly told Janes that the UK Govt is considering deploying 'additional ISTAR assets' within the next few weeks which'll probably be Sentinel.

TD has a good article about UK weapons releases during January in Iraq, the results are that Reaper is doing as much as Tornado is in theatre which isn't - IMO - surprising.

Slim Pickings in Iraq - Think Defence

 

[Nick underscore]

Looks like USAAF will deploy SAR assets to avert potential future coalition pilot captures. States V-22's as the platform. This was in response to the UAE suspending airstrikes recently. Basing in Northern Iraq.
US considers deploying V-22 Ospreys for search and rescue operations in Iraq - Airforce Technology

Strange this wasn't undertaken earlier

 

[RobWilliams]

Saudi Typhoons dropped 500lb Paveway IV bombs on IS, marking the first deployment in anger of that weapon from the aircraft.

Saudi Typhoons Use Paveway IV Bombs on ISIS

News that weapons upgrades are coming along sooner no doubt is good news for the RSAF.

French fighters from Charles de Gaulle have made their first strikes on IS and the carrier is meant to join the operation for 8 months before taking part in exercises with the Indian Navy.

http://www.defensenews.com/story/de...lf-based-carrier-make-first-strikes/24025883/

 

[barney41]

Saudi Typhoons dropped 500lb Paveway IV bombs on IS, marking the first deployment in anger of that weapon from the aircraft.

Saudi Typhoons Use Paveway IV Bombs on ISIS

News that weapons upgrades are coming along sooner no doubt is good news for the RSAF.

French fighters from Charles de Gaulle have made their first strikes on IS and the carrier is meant to join the operation for 8 months before taking part in exercises with the Indian Navy.

French Planes on Gulf-Based Carrier Make First Strikes

Actually the report states an 8-week engagement in the Gulf. 8 months seemed awfully long at first glance.

 

[RobWilliams]

Ach, brain fart! That'll teach me to post in the middle of work.

Still, France is truly getting stuck in.

 

[John Fedup]

Ach, brain fart! That'll teach me to post in the middle of work.

Still, France is truly getting stuck in.

Every one will be getting stuck in IMO. The 8 weeks will morph into somthing longer, just like Canada's 6 months. It is likely necessary and the gradual approach mullifies the kumbayah public, assuming they pull their heads out of their sunshine starved orifices and notice.

 

[barney41]

The Iraqi army is trying to retake Tikrit. Iran is reported to be heavily involved while the US seems to be pursuing a "hands off" policy. Air support, considered critical and key to defeating ISIS in Kobane, is courtesy of the Iraqi air force. This is seen as a prelude fo the bigger battle for Mosul so Tikrit will bear watching.

The Sunni-killers leading the assault on Tikrit are bad news for Iraq – Quartz

 

[My2Cents]

The Iraqi army is trying to retake Tikrit. Iran is reported to be heavily involved while the US seems to be pursuing a "hands off" policy. Air support, considered critical and key to defeating ISIS in Kobane, is courtesy of the Iraqi air force. This is seen as a prelude fo the bigger battle for Mosul so Tikrit will bear watching.

This appears to be an Iraq+Iran operation only, the Coalition was not informed of the attack ahead of time. Sounds more like a political move than a well thought out strategy.

Abadi is making all kinds of sounds about respecting the local population, but given the large numbers of Shia militia involved that many not apply on the ground.

 

[barney41]

This appears to be an Iraq+Iran operation only, the Coalition was not informed of the attack ahead of time. Sounds more like a political move than a well thought out strategy.

Abadi is making all kinds of sounds about respecting the local population, but given the large numbers of Shia militia involved that many not apply on the ground.

After last year's debacles, all the publicity has been on the US-led air campaign and the Kurds successes eg. Kobane, Mosul Dam, etc. The Iraqis hope to make a statement at Tikrit but seem to have gone off-script. Anyway, 30,000 army and militia is a formidable force on paper and everyone is keen to see how they actually fare... lessons will be learned.

 

[peterAustralia]

seems to be getting worse, not likely to have a nice ending anytime soon. Perhaps the 1919 French-British Sykes-Picot agreement that created Syria and Iraq out of the remnants of the Ottoman Empire has run its course,, and maybe now we can say it has not been a huge success.

Perhaps let the people of the region determine where the boundaries of states in that region will be. Ethnic divisions would suggest four states out of Iraq and Syria. A kurdish state, a sunni state (western iraq and eastern syria), a shia state and an Alawite state (western syria) would give best chance of peace and stability in the long run.

Some people might not like the idea of changing the lines on the map, however if you take the arguement that the lines on the map were drawn up by two european officials about 100 years back, how much moral authority do those lines have? Possibly the best option for peace in the longer term is to forget about Sykes-Picot and divide the two nations in question along ethnic and cultural lines. Aside so some extent thats what happens in europe, the spanish live in spain, the french live in france etc etc. Anyway,,, just going out on a limb on that one

 

[John Fedup]

seems to be getting worse, not likely to have a nice ending anytime soon. Perhaps the 1919 French-British Sykes-Picot agreement that created Syria and Iraq out of the remnants of the Ottoman Empire has run its course,, and maybe now we can say it has not been a huge success.

Perhaps let the people of the region determine where the boundaries of states in that region will be. Ethnic divisions would suggest four states out of Iraq and Syria. A kurdish state, a sunni state (western iraq and eastern syria), a shia state and an Alawite state (western syria) would give best chance of peace and stability in the long run.

Some people might not like the idea of changing the lines on the map, however if you take the arguement that the lines on the map were drawn up by two european officials about 100 years back, how much moral authority do those lines have? Possibly the best option for peace in the longer term is to forget about Sykes-Picot and divide the two nations in question along ethnic and cultural lines. Aside so some extent thats what happens in europe, the spanish live in spain, the french live in france etc etc. Anyway,,, just going out on a limb on that one

If there was no oil in the region then boundaries based on ethnics seems a reasonable solution. Unfortunately each group will demand a share of the oil pie and that is no easy slice now. It might have been in 1919.

 

[Nick underscore]

Australia has commited another 300 trainers for Iraq. Also mentions NZ, which I believe already announced 143 troops to deploy, a week ago. Australia sends 300 troops to Iraq in join mission with New Zealand - Telegraph

The troops are to be based at a military base in Taji, northwest of Baghdad, from May.

Note; The 170 Aus specials will be returning and not replaced at the end of their rotation (September).