War Against ISIS

[STURM]

Some of it is probably also related to Iran's change in leadership and a considerable toning down in belligerence and rhetoric.

Indeed. Other factors that played a part could be the changing geo-political situation in the region, realisation by the U.S. that long term allies like Saudi might not be so ''friendly'' after all and that Iran - especially after Iraq and Afghanistan - has a useful role to play.

In previous threads I have commented about how a Iran/U.S. rapprochement based on realpolitik would benefit the region; especially given the shared concerns and interests both countries have. We often hear in the press about how ''evil'' and ''threatening'' Iran is but what we don't often hear is how both countries - despite the rhetoric by both sides have cooperated behind the scenes, over Al Qaeda and Afghanistan [Iran was supporting the Northern Alliance at a time when the State Department was still wary of Massoud].

http://www.independent.co.uk/voices...ble-future-policeman-of-the-gulf-9878695.html

http://ericmargolis.com/2014/11/nuclear-chicken-in-the-mideast/

Saudi's Prince Turki - who was previously invloved in channeling support to the Taliban - has blamed the West for the Syrian conflict and denied reports that ''Saudis had bankrolled Sunni extremists. ''. Strangely, given that the RSAF has played a very minor role in the air campaign, he also says that if the West had armed the ''moderates'': ''then there would have been no need to use ''our'' air force now''.

 

[Rimasta]

Why would Iranian aircraft attempt to engage coalition aircraft; given that Iran and the West share the same enemy [the West also shares the same enemy as Assad but we won't get into that] and the same geopotical concerns? It might not be mentioned openly, but the West is more than happy for Iran to get involved in helping Iraq battle ISIS. Notice how there were no statements by the State Department or the White House spokesman which expressed ''concern'' when reports emerged that Pasdaran elements had entered Iraq to assist their Shiia brethren?

Given that Iran is a major player in the region, continuing to isolate Iran, to keep it out of Iraq [as was the previous case] and not to engage with it over matters of shared concerns, would be toomfoolery.

I actually agree, my post saying Iran would not benefit from such an action was in response to John Fedup. He asked how coalition pilots would feel with Iranian fighters potentially nearby. My reply was merely pointing out, that Iran would not benefit from such a conflict, and given the fact they also share a common enemy, there is even more reason NOT to act provocative towards the US at this time.
And truth be told, I think many of us would agree, we'd rather see Iranian's fighting and dying and killing on the ground, then our own forces. I hope that does not offend anyone, I just think the attitude is simply to let others do the dirty work for a change whilst saving our own blood.

 

[John Fedup]

Why would Iranian aircraft attempt to engage coalition aircraft; given that Iran and the West share the same enemy [the West also shares the same enemy as Assad but we won't get into that] and the same geopotical concerns? It might not be mentioned openly, but the West is more than happy for Iran to get involved in helping Iraq battle ISIS. Notice how there were no statements by the State Department or the White House spokesman which expressed ''concern'' when reports emerged that Pasdaran elements had entered Iraq to assist their Shiia brethren?

Given that Iran is a major player in the region, continuing to isolate Iran, to keep it out of Iraq [as was the previous case] and not to engage with it over matters of shared concerns, would be toomfoolery.

I actually agree, my post saying Iran would not benefit from such an action was in response to John Fedup. He asked how coalition pilots would feel with Iranian fighters potentially nearby. My reply was merely pointing out, that Iran would not benefit from such a conflict, and given the fact they also share a common enemy, there is even more reason NOT to act provocative towards the US at this time.
And truth be told, I think many of us would agree, we'd rather see Iranian's fighting and dying and killing on the ground, then our own forces. I hope that does not offend anyone, I just think the attitude is simply to let others do the dirty work for a change whilst saving our own blood.

My comment about coalition pilots feelings were with regard to Iraqi AF pilots on their six, not Iranians. Most likely, the Iranian pilots can be assumed to be more in tune with following orders from their masters. Who knows how reliable the command and control is over Iraqi pilots?

 

[swerve]

Somehow, I doubt that Iraqi pilots would attack people who are helping to save their lives, & those of their families.

 

[John Fedup]

Somehow, I doubt that Iraqi pilots would attack people who are helping to save their lives, & those of their families.

Coalition ground troops who served in Afghanistan and Iraq would likely disagree but perhaps Iraqi AF pilots have been better vetted than army personnel.

 

[Rimasta]

Coalition ground troops who served in Afghanistan and Iraq would likely disagree but perhaps Iraqi AF pilots have been better vetted than army personnel.

Apologies, I thought you were referring to the Iranians, my mistake. I suppose there always is a chance a pilot could just go rogue. It's not like we've never had a stray pilot with a MiG defect. Although it might be possible, I'd say it's highly unlikely.
1) I don't see coalition aircraft operating in close proximity to their Iraqi counterparts, since the Iraqi's have differently capabilities/tactics. Reports I've read is that the Iraqi pilots are actually somewhat sloppy, they make Attacks from the same directions, poor coordination with ground troops, and limited flight time in type I'm sure for many of their pilots.
2)I think your correct in assuming their pilots have undergone a more rigorous vetting process. Haven't Iraqi and Afghsn pilots on various types received their training in western countries? We don't send Afghan infantry to train in the U.S. or Europe, but simply put, it's unskilled or semi-skilled labor when dealing with infantry.
3)Many Iraqi pilots are Shias, and they are facing what is seen by many as a Sunni-threat, attacking westerners in this case, in my mind, would be comparable to attacking the police officers that come to your home in response to a home invasion, you'd be attacking the exact wrong person, and someone who is also much better equipped to handle such a scenario.

I'd rate my chances for winning Mega-millions in the California lottery as about the same as the Iraqi's turning on us, or carrying out inside attacks in such a high profile manner. The Iraqi's aren't the Afghans, very different cultures and histories.

 

[STURM]

Although it might be possible, I'd say it's highly unlikely.

Agreed, especially when one takes into account the deep rooted distrust amongst the Shia and Sunni community. Whilst there is no doubt that the vast majority of pilots are Shia, I would be surprised if there weren't a few Sunni pilots in the Iraqi Air Force.

IMO, the report that Iranian Phantoms hit targets in Iraq - if true - is very significant as it could possibly herald in a new era in U.S./Iran cooperation. Off course both countries have cooperated in the past but it seems that the ''behind the secnes'' cooperation has reached a new level - ironic given previous U.S. attempts to limit Iranian influence and involvement in Iraq, which was short sighted and silly given the centuries old religious ties between Iran/Iraq and the fact that Iraq is in Iran's backyard.

 

[RobWilliams]

Iraq has requested 175 more M1A1 Abrams tanks and 1000 up-armoured Humvee vehicles from the US Government. Total contracts awarded (I do recommend looking at the extra kit list, lots more in there) come to around $3 billion.

Iraq
http://www.dsca.mil/major-arms-sale...-high-mobility-multi-purpose-wheeled-vehicles

This comes after news that the Iraqi Army has lost control of Baiji which - AFAIK - is unconfirmed if it's a total or partial loss of control.

Makes you wonder if even with coalition aircraft in the skies, expanded numbers of Iraqi CAS aircraft and all these arms shipments, can they win?

Seems like it's only the Kurds who're doing well.

 

[John Fedup]

Iraq has requested 175 more M1A1 Abrams tanks and 1000 up-armoured Humvee vehicles from the US Government. Total contracts awarded (I do recommend looking at the extra kit list, lots more in there) come to around $3 billion.

Iraq
Iraq - M1151A1 Up-Armored High Mobility Multi-Purpose Wheeled Vehicles | The Official Home of the Defense Security Cooperation Agency

This comes after news that the Iraqi Army has lost control of Baiji which - AFAIK - is unconfirmed if it's a total or partial loss of control.

Makes you wonder if even with coalition aircraft in the skies, expanded numbers of Iraqi CAS aircraft and all these arms shipments, can they win?

Seems like it's only the Kurds who're doing well.

This would not be necessary if the Iraqi army hadn't abandoned so much of their equipment to ISIL. I say further donations should go directly to the Kurds. If the Saudis and Turks don't like this, let them do some donations, especially the Saudis who are responsible for creating a lot of this $hit.

 

[RobWilliams]

This would not be necessary if the Iraqi army hadn't abandoned so much of their equipment to ISIL. I say further donations should go directly to the Kurds. If the Saudis and Turks don't like this, let them do some donations, especially the Saudis who are responsible for creating a lot of this $hit.

Losing M1A1s to IS isn't a major problem, they can't support them in the field and they're asking for a Hellfire up their arse. Besides which, there's not actually a whole load of actual cases of the Iraqi Army doing that.

I suppose the more significant issues from losing those tanks and the humvees themselves is the potential for stripping away any mounted .50's or Mk19s plus ammunition. Can imagine any intact stores of 120mm HEAT being turned into IEDs.

Even then, that's an occurrence which happens only when the tank is captured complete.

Last I checked, there's only 10 confirmed cases of total loss, Iraq originally had ~150 tanks, it's not surprising they want to boost it regardless of hypothetical losses.

Iraqi F-16s should be delivered soon last I checked, they want to deck them up with good systems.

https://medium.com/war-is-boring/po...-precision-guided-bombs-for-jets-dee0fc976d24

Everyone has been arming the Kurds, Baghdad go through official government-to-government channels for weapons. The Germans - surprisingly - published quantities of weapon systems and ammunition they were intending to deliver (and it is significant). The UK only has said 100tons of weapons including 40 .50 M2s plus ammunition and the French/US haven't published anything specific. Although I haven't done much research.

WRT UK RAF operations under Operation Shader (codename for these Iraq operations), Tornados and Reapers are earning their keep, they've been pretty busy this month with the Reapers especially becoming more and more central as IS becomes more irregular.

Operation Shader - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

 

[Waylander]

The deliveries of weapons, equipment and vehicles to the Kurdes is finished AFAIK. One Dingo got lost already. Humanitarian aid deliveries keep on going.

We are currently boasting the number of instructors in Iraq which train the Kurds as well as the courses in Germany for Kurdish specialists (from ATGMs teams to field kitchens).

As for the Iraqis getting new Abrams I say let them have them, especially when they pay for them.

They should also get additional training. Imagine what just one well trained and supplied platoon of M1s could do to these motorized cavalry charges the IS seems to be fond of.

The IS capturing T-55s or T-72s is actually more dangerous than M1s as they know how to operate them and can get their hands on supplies and spare parts.

 

[RobWilliams]

The deliveries of weapons, equipment and vehicles to the Kurdes is finished AFAIK. One Dingo got lost already. Humanitarian aid deliveries keep on going.

We are currently boasting the number of instructors in Iraq which train the Kurds as well as the courses in Germany for Kurdish specialists (from ATGMs teams to field kitchens).

Ah I see, cheers for the info! I didn't know the progress of the deliveries. It's not surprising they lost a Dingo, the one thing IS *isnt* is under-equipped IMO following from Syrian/Iraqi forces losses.

It seems like more countries are stepping up Kurdish training, the UK had a handful of advisors from 2 YORKs training them on .50's and it's being increased to 200 as well as a force protection element made up of 2 companies from 2PARA. UK training is occurring at 3 locations, one of them being Irbil.

There's murmuring in the UK now about how a sustained ground campaign is needed as IS have 'gone to ground' following air strikes. Although, if there's any thoughts of coalition troops doing it, it's unlikely to happen before the 2015 General Election.

As for the Iraqis getting new Abrams I say let them have them, especially when they pay for them.

Agreed. It's not like they're shipping Stingers and the like which could float around the ME, they're MBTs.

They should also get additional training. Imagine what just one well trained and supplied platoon of M1s could do to these motorized cavalry charges the IS seems to be fond of.

Again, agreed. I'd be interested to know how Iraq utilises MBTs operationally, it could influence why they're losing as many as they are. Like, are they properly trained in infantry cooperation as part of a combined arms operation? Are they being used in static defensive positions rather than a mobile reserve?

The IS capturing T-55s or T-72s is actually more dangerous than M1s as they know how to operate them and can get their hands on supplies and spare parts.

Especially if they captured significant numbers of parts etc from Syrian depots. As much allied air power is in the sky right now, even during Iraq '03 tank-on-tank combat was still a thing. Proper tank/infantry cooperation mixed with ATGMs seems order of the day, but do they train for it?

Good article from War is Boring about the sale, there's a video about an IS captured M1 in there too.

https://medium.com/war-is-boring/am...tanks-to-islamic-sta-i-mean-iraq-b0b94fada39a

 

[Nick underscore]

Jordanian pilot shot down (F-16 I beleive) and captured by IS inside Syria near Raqqa earlier today. Stated that it was a SAM.

BBC News - IS captures Jordanian pilot after warplane crashes in Syria

 

[RobWilliams]

A Jordanian F-16 has been shot down over Iraq and the pilot has been captured alive.

Official: Jordanian pilot shot down by Islamic State

Poor bloke, he's got an experience I couldn't even to begin to imagine to come.

 

[John Fedup]

A Jordanian F-16 has been shot down over Iraq and the pilot has been captured alive.

Official: Jordanian pilot shot down by Islamic State

Poor bloke, he's got an experience I couldn't even to begin to imagine to come.

I wonder if the pill option is available like it was during spy flights over the Soviet Union at the height of the Cold War.

 

[John Fedup]

Jordanian pilot shot down (F-16 I beleive) and captured by IS inside Syria near Raqqa earlier today. Stated that it was a SAM.

BBC News - IS captures Jordanian pilot after warplane crashes in Syria

The pilot is pictured next to a F-16. Was this what he was flying? Clearly the coalition forces must be hoping this was a malfunction of the jet as opposed to an actual shutdown.

 

[Waylander]

@Rob
The purges of the military by Maliki didn't make them better and from the info one gets it looks like they are still suffering from much of the same problems they and other arab armies have experienced since decades.

A rather limited NCO corps with many of the tasks which would be done by NCOs in the west being the responsibility of junior officers. These junior officers as well as their units tend not to adapt quickly to unexpected situations and are poor at improvising or operating on their own. A very top heavy command structure with little freedom or encouragement of independent thinking for the junior grades.

The problem is that the floating and fractured nature of many of IS's movements and attacks just calls for a heavy reliance on the performance of small combined arms combat elements as well as heavy screening and recce operations by independent elements. The Iraqis seem to lack most of this.

Just look at how their combat units get ambushed while in road march formation and disintegrate, leaving behind their equipment, after taking some blows even when the units are rather heavy.

 

[barney41]

I guess we're all curious to know the circumstances surrounding the loss of the Jordanian F-16. The US says evidence suggests it was some sort of failure and not due to IS attempts to shoot it down.
U.S. says ISIS did not down plane - CNN.com

 

[John Fedup]

I guess we're all curious to know the circumstances surrounding the loss of the Jordanian F-16. The US says evidence suggests it was some sort of failure and not due to IS attempts to shoot it down.
U.S. says ISIS did not down plane - CNN.com

Hopefully it is a mechanical failure of some sort because the alternative will create substantial pressure on certain Western govts with kumbayah electorates...hint, country that has a maple leaf on its flag.

 

[crest]

Hopefully it is a mechanical failure of some sort because the alternative will create substantial pressure on certain Western govts with kumbayah electorates...hint, country that has a maple leaf on its flag.

well its just a guess, but if it was shot down i would expect there to be a video of it, Making i would find it unlikely that even if i.s. does have weapons capable to bring down a advanced jet (taking out pilot error) i doubt they would wast the propaganda opportunity and every manpad used would also have a filmmaker around.

I know that seems a very loose thing to base my assumption on but the propaganda war is a heavy part of how most of these organizations fight and they rarely miss a opportunity to show off advanced weaponry when they have access to it