Ukranian Crisis

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Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
I accept the difference between practice & principle. He'd like everything, but he takes cost-effectiveness into account.

Belarus is interesting because it was always the least 'non-Russian' of the SSRs.

The whole idea of a Belorussian language, rather than just a collection of dialects shading into Polish in the west & Russian in the east seems to be rather modern, from what I can discover. At least one local dialect was used as an administrative language in mediaeval Lithuania, but not attached to any sense of nationality, AFAIK. And in any case, nowadays Russian is the first language of most of the people of Belarus.
Yes. But it has the most functioning and stable government out of pretty much all the CIS states. As long as Lukashenko can find a suitable successor to match, they're set for the future. Back in the day, the reason Lukashenko went for the Union of Russia and Belarus was because he thought he might end up ruling both countries, once Yeltsin is gone. However the project was re-animated under Putin, and it's been moving forward, with regards to normative documents like passports.

It will be very hard for Putin's Russia to move in on Belarus, and Lukashenko is a strong enough leader to get close to Russia politically, and economically, without getting absorbed and swallowed up.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Update - Situation on the Front

A night battle at the Donetsk airport.

[nomedia="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mBuhP5dzcDk"]17 09 14 Донецк Ðочной бой за ÐÑропорт - YouTube[/nomedia]

Some sources indicate that Ukraine may have lost up to 8 000 vehicles in the current conflict.

http://military-informant.com/index...noj-tekhniki-uzhe-dostigli-8-tys-edinits.html

Ukrainian army positions abandoned near Manuilovka.

http://jerry24-it.livejournal.com/441472.html

Ukrainian troops trying to shoot down a UAV.

http://jerry24-it.livejournal.com/442325.html

Destruction at Stepanovka. I'm not sure if this happened recently, or old.

http://jerry24-it.livejournal.com/439336.html
 
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Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Update - Armed Forces

A pickup truck, one of 19, being donated to the Ukrainian military.

http://twower.livejournal.com/1426665.html

Even more volunteer btlns are being formed in Ukraine, from coastal defense, to special btlns from government agencies like the Government Security Agency. Even the tax service is forming a btln for the war.

http://bmpd.livejournal.com/997936.html

A BRDM-2 in the hands of a territorial btln.

http://twower.livejournal.com/1425063.html

Ukrainian Border Guards service has received 20 BTR-70s.

http://military-informant.com/index...uchili-20-btr-70-ot-nikolaevskogo-zavoda.html

More armored vehicles being pulled out of storage. A lot of them are 3rd and 4th category vehicles. The vehicles are coming straight from the Armored Repair Plants.

http://jerry24-it.livejournal.com/443968.html

Ossetian fighters in Ukraine.

http://azlok.livejournal.com/1063657.html
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Update - General Background

The US has declined to grant Ukraine ally status.

http://stainlesstlrat.livejournal.com/1025122.html

Ukrainian MinDef said that participation of the volunteer btln commanders in elections is un-heroic.

http://stainlesstlrat.livejournal.com/1026177.html

Poland says it will not supply weapons to Ukraine.

http://military-informant.com/index...rana-ne-budet-postavlyat-ukraine-oruzhie.html

700 paratroopers are protesting near the Ukrainian President's Administration.

http://military-informant.com/index...t-pod-administratsiyu-prezidenta-ukrainy.html

In Kharkov, right wingers violently dispersed a Communist Party of Ukraine protest.

http://zloy-odessit.livejournal.com/789476.html

Poroshenko requests military aid from the US.

http://newsru.com/world/18sep2014/poroh.html

Russian MChS has prepared a third humanitarian convoy.

http://newsru.com/russia/18sep2014/convoy.html
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Is it realistic for Ukraine to pull out and operate T-55/62s out of storage? I assume there are many sitting around.
I don't see why not. It's really a question of time and money. The Kiev BTRZ regularly shows off export-oriented T-55 upgrades, so I would think they have the ability to restore a certain number to combat readiness.
 

gazzzwp

Member
I just wanted to run a couple of things something past you gentlemen.

Russia seems to be getting very assertive over Ukrainian issue; because of Ukraine's developing alliance with the west, and Nato's presence in the Black Sea etc.

Reports of more Russia flights towards the Alaska and Canadian border by Russian fighters have appeared in the news today.

If Russia is going to pick a fight with NATO, would it be advantageous to do so before the F35 fleet becomes fully operational it being that this aircraft could well be a game changer in an arena of contested air space where advanced SAM's are operating?

Also what really is behind Russia's recent installation of a military base in the high Arctic? Are they trying to exploit newly available land because of it's closer location to the North American continent? Giving their bombers more of an advantage perhaps?
 

dprijadi

New Member
Feanor , what do you think the relation of ukraine situation relation to syrian situation ? do you see any relation ?

im curious how ukraine situation and the resulting us / eu vs russia tension will be observed by china... feels like just yesterday nixon visited china.. now china and russia become closer again..

theres a big chessboard the size of the world and ukraine just one square of it , chess with more than 2 players mind you..

the 2015-2020 will be interesting to see... are we going to see prolonged economic struggle in the world ? or even intensified economic warfare ?
 

Bonza

Super Moderator
Staff member
I just wanted to run a couple of things something past you gentlemen.

Russia seems to be getting very assertive over Ukrainian issue; because of Ukraine's developing alliance with the west, and Nato's presence in the Black Sea etc.

Reports of more Russia flights towards the Alaska and Canadian border by Russian fighters have appeared in the news today.

If Russia is going to pick a fight with NATO, would it be advantageous to do so before the F35 fleet becomes fully operational it being that this aircraft could well be a game changer in an arena of contested air space where advanced SAM's are operating?

Also what really is behind Russia's recent installation of a military base in the high Arctic? Are they trying to exploit newly available land because of it's closer location to the North American continent? Giving their bombers more of an advantage perhaps?
If a fight between Russia and NATO went hot then I'd be more concerned with ICBMs and SLBMs than low observable tactical platforms - in fact I'm certain the availability of the F-35 is irrelevant to how Russia plays this out with regard to NATO.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Feanor , what do you think the relation of ukraine situation relation to syrian situation ? do you see any relation ?
I don't see any. Unless it's that Putin's foreign policy success in Syria may have given him confidence about making bold moves against Ukraine. But even that's little more then a guess.

im curious how ukraine situation and the resulting us / eu vs russia tension will be observed by china... feels like just yesterday nixon visited china.. now china and russia become closer again..
Russia has spent the past decade and a half developing and cultivating their ties with the rest of Europe. The fact that they're now falling back on China, is not a good sign for Russia. Years of careful work gone, as they say, under the cats tail.

theres a big chessboard the size of the world and ukraine just one square of it , chess with more than 2 players mind you..

the 2015-2020 will be interesting to see... are we going to see prolonged economic struggle in the world ? or even intensified economic warfare ?
I think we will see plenty of actual warfare.
 

gazzzwp

Member
I don't see any. Unless it's that Putin's foreign policy success in Syria may have given him confidence about making bold moves against Ukraine. But even that's little more then a guess.



Russia has spent the past decade and a half developing and cultivating their ties with the rest of Europe. The fact that they're now falling back on China, is not a good sign for Russia. Years of careful work gone, as they say, under the cats tail.



I think we will see plenty of actual warfare.
It worries me that Russia is so full of bravado in terms of provoking the mighty US; say with these bomber and fighter sorties close to the North American continent.

It worries me because it gives the strong impression that Russia firmly believes in itself to be able to give the US a fair old whack on the chin.

Is it all just a bluff from political calculation?

Looking at the videos all over the web, Russia firmly has the opinion that it has superior fighter aircraft and electronic missile capabilities.

Then look at the recent exercises conducted in Europe and the Far east by the Russian military and it becomes clear that they have a greater state or preparedness to go with their advanced weaponry.

NATO never does anything on that scale any more.

No wonder then that NATO is steering clear of an engagement. From what I can see it had better get it's act together and quickly before it really falls behind and faces an adversary that it cannot match.

Thoughts?
 

STURM

Well-Known Member
It worries me that Russia is so full of bravado in terms of provoking the mighty US; say with these bomber and fighter sorties close to the North American continent.
My opinion is that we have to look at things in totality and that both sides have a hand in the mess that currently exists with regards to Russia/Western relations. It would be easy if we could lay all the blame on a ''perfidious '' and ''provocative '' Russia; but unfortunately it's not as simple as that. Granted, Russia is far from blameless with regards to its policy over the Ukraine but we also have to view things from a Russian perspective. Russia too has threat perceptions and concerns and views certain actions [whatever these may be] undertaken by others as provocative or potentially damaging to its national interests.

Ironically, if the West really intends to strike IS in Syria and there is a need for some back door diplomacy with the Baathists; it might need Russian help as a mediator or go between. After all, both the West and Russia jointly see IS as a threat.
 
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Rimasta

Member
It worries me that Russia is so full of bravado in terms of provoking the mighty US; say with these bomber and fighter sorties close to the North American continent.

It worries me because it gives the strong impression that Russia firmly believes in itself to be able to give the US a fair old whack on the chin.

Is it all just a bluff from political calculation?

Looking at the videos all over the web, Russia firmly has the opinion that it has superior fighter aircraft and electronic missile capabilities.

Then look at the recent exercises conducted in Europe and the Far east by the Russian military and it becomes clear that they have a greater state or preparedness to go with their advanced weaponry.

NATO never does anything on that scale any more.

No wonder then that NATO is steering clear of an engagement. From what I can see it had better get it's act together and quickly before it really falls behind and faces an adversary that it cannot match.

Thoughts?
Well I can't speak for Russian attitudes but in regards to NATO readiness, isn't that partly why the U.S. has kept tactical nuclear weapons in Europe? It to me is essentially a trump card both sides could play, and one that both sides seem to have forgotten about sometimes, especially when people suggest war as a viable option between the superpowers.


I think back to the US Army in Europe following the Vietnam War and how truly deplorable the situation was. Officers wouldn't go into barracks without being armed, with escorts, or both. Or how bad morale was, how many units in the 1970's in West Germany couldn't even get half their units vehicles to the field and the Soviets from our side of the border really did look like an unstoppable juggernaut. But despite this, victory would most likely elude both sides if they ever fought, one side would eventually gain the upper hand, and then that's when we must ask ourselves, "what would desperate men do who also posses nuclear weapons?"


Go back a few years and a lot of what we see in the news today might seem preposterous and abstract, not in the range of likelihood, yet here we are. That's why I love history, you just can't make this stuff up.


General Breedlove, SACEUR, recently spoke about how the U.S. was considering not only halting the drawdown of forces from Europe, but actually slightly reversing it. So that's promising, but not if its the paltry forces like we see today, a battalion of paratroopers from the 173rd Airbourne Brigade spread across three countries won't even slow the Russians down a little. My thought is to give serious consideration to Poland's request for a permanent NATO basing, say the 1st Amored Division since they used to be based in Germany. Plus it'll give the West something to negotiate with, like offering that in exchange for no NATO bases in the east, Russia ceases the support for the rebels. Appeasing Putin I think will only lead to an escalation down the road, I wonder if Putin realizes he is making the West feel backed into a corner where we have no other choice in our response.
 
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