Ukranian Crisis

[wild_Willie2]

So what is going on now in eastern Ukraine?

I read a few days ago that since the cease fire agreement approximately 2/3 of the Russian “volunteers” had their holiday in eastern Ukraine cut short and have returned to their motherland, so we can assume that the Russians will keep out of the fighting so long the Ukrainian forces stay on the defensive. So I expect that the fighting that has flared up again in the in the region during the last few days is again between rebel and government forces and that the rebels are the aggressors.
However I am a bit confused about the fighting that is still taking place around the Donetsk airport, the airfield has been a conflict zone since the beginning and I expect it to be heavily fortified and defended by Ukrainian forces by now. Do the rebels really expect to take it without direct Russian support, or are they trying to wear down the defenders by forcing them to expend ammo repulsing probing attacks? Can under the cease fire agreement the airfield even be resupplied by air?

This conflict gas gone from strange too weird to plain stupid, the Ukrainian forces know they can’t attack again (so they have zero chance for victory) without being slapped down by Russia again so what are they still doing in the area? Are they trying to bleed the rebels dry or are they jockeying for a better negotiation position?

The way the Russian played it, this conflict has just become a perpetual stalemate so what are the Ukrainian forces still hoping to achieve by staying in the east?

 

[narvi]

Gazprom has without explanation, cut gas supplied to Poland by 45%. Consequently they had to stop reverse supplies of gas to Ukraine.

AFAIK this is not true. It was erroneously reported by Polish media this way, but in reality Poland requested increase to the maximum level allowed by contract. Gazprom declined, citing 'lack of ability to supply such amount at this moment', and continues to deliver minimal amount required by contract. The 45% figure is the difference between Polish request and delivered amount, but there is no or little of actual decrease in the flow, as previous level was already low due to the summertime and full storage in Poland.

The reverse to Ukraine was indeed cut for a few days but recently I have seen PGNiG (Polish national gas company) announcement stating that they have resumed deliveries having secured additional resources 'from Germany and Czech Republic' - probably bought on the spot market.

 

[Nick underscore]

Note. The EU association agreement will be ratified by Ukrainian and European parliaments next week, as planned. EU will continue its relaxed trade rules on goods coming from Ukraine.
The delay is specific on Ukraine lowering tariffs for European goods until the end of 2015. RF complained that a flood of EU goods would flow from Ukraine into Russia. Ukraine to Delay Part of EU Pact Opposed by Russia - WSJ

Planned NATO exercises started in west Ukraine (Lviv) - Nato begins military exercises in Ukraine - Telegraph

International capital mkts and the sanctions imposed on Rosneft are taking hold. Potential 10% equity sale last week on the Chinese mkts and now a $40b funding requirement on short term loans coming up. Seems there is a possibility of tapping the Govt, through Russia's National Welfare Fund ($84b). - Rosneft, Novatek Could Receive State Aid, Russian Minister Says - WSJ I was surprised Lukoil was targeted in last round.

Gazprom also doing the same to Slovakia, as with Poland - Gazprom cuts gas supplies to Slovakia - Natural Gas Daily - Interfax Global Energy

 

[swerve]

The way the Russian played it, this conflict has just become a perpetual stalemate so what are the Ukrainian forces still hoping to achieve by staying in the east?

Keeping hold of the two-thirds (land area, not population) of Donetsk & Luhansk oblasts they still hold.

Why should they withdraw from them? The majority of the people in the areas they control consider themselves Ukrainian, not Russian.

 

[swerve]

...
Apparently a rebel honor guard guarding the statue of Dzerzhinsky. A bit strange, given that he was the first head of the Cheka. He did do positive things during his time, but seems like a strange priority....

Yeah. Why so protective of a member of the Polish gentry?

 

[Feanor]

AFAIK this is not true. It was erroneously reported by Polish media this way, but in reality Poland requested increase to the maximum level allowed by contract. Gazprom declined, citing 'lack of ability to supply such amount at this moment', and continues to deliver minimal amount required by contract. The 45% figure is the difference between Polish request and delivered amount, but there is no or little of actual decrease in the flow, as previous level was already low due to the summertime and full storage in Poland.

The reverse to Ukraine was indeed cut for a few days but recently I have seen PGNiG (Polish national gas company) announcement stating that they have resumed deliveries having secured additional resources 'from Germany and Czech Republic' - probably bought on the spot market.

Thank you for the correction.

Yeah. Why so protective of a member of the Polish gentry?

Historical humor aside, in this day and age Dzerzhinsky is not known as a member of the Polish gentry. Though if we want to get factual, he certainly deserves a statue, if only for his work with homeless children after the Civil War. I'm just curious on what the logic there is, in their minds.

Keeping hold of the two-thirds (land area, not population) of Donetsk & Luhansk oblasts they still hold.

Why should they withdraw from them? The majority of the people in the areas they control consider themselves Ukrainian, not Russian.

There's an untold story here, that I've gotten a little bit of a feel for, but don't have hard sources on. It seems that refugees are not only fleeing eastward, they're also fleeing westward into the rest of Ukraine. It's not as obvious because there's no border control or federal service tracking their entry. But it's still happening. Which means that the few that remain will be a certain kind of people. We saw this in the Georgian Civil War. Areas with mixed ethnic population, after violence, war, and lawlessness, became quite a bit more homogenous because only certain ethnicities chose to stay/were allowed to stay. We're not looking at ethnic cleansing yet, but I strongly suspect that those who consider themselves Ukrainian will leave if/when the rebels advance.

After all is said and done, we may find a Russian majority in these regions.

 

[swerve]

The rebels hold the cities of Donetsk & Luhansk, & I think the most densely populated part of their oblasts. Thus, the area they hold has a bigger share of the population than land of those oblasts. A swap (voluntary or enforced) within those two oblasts would probably give pretty homogeneous populations in each region, & roughly the same total populations as pre-war.

 

[Feanor]

The rebels hold the cities of Donetsk & Luhansk, & I think the most densely populated part of their oblasts. Thus, the area they hold has a bigger share of the population than land of those oblasts. A swap (voluntary or enforced) within those two oblasts would probably give pretty homogeneous populations in each region, & roughly the same total populations as pre-war.

I'm not sure I understand what you're suggesting. Swapping what for what, and between whom, are you suggesting? I think a Georgian style resolution is much more likely with most of the refugees never returning to their homes at all. I've talked to people in Russia who have had contact with many of those fleeing Ukraine. And they don't seem to be excited to return. Their jobs and often homes, have been destroyed, and the region will be unstable for years if not decades, to come. I strongly suspect the same will apply to those who fled westward.

 

[Nick underscore]

Coming out from various sources for last 24 hrs..

LNR and DNR have militarily united forming United Armed Forces of Novorossiya. IMV, this is much more palletable to the RF.
- ITAR-TASS: World - Donetsk, Luhansk armies to form armed forces
- https://mobile.twitter.com/ChristopherJM/status/511895099656007680

Can't find anything on the background of this 'Lt Gen Ivan Korsun' who has been appointed commander.. Is it known who he is?

Looking at the signed agreement, I think theres Khodakovsky's name, but that's all. Last two sets of signatures looks to be from the same hand.

Was there a split between the groups of field commanders?

 

[the concerned]

I can't see how the Ukrainian government can allow the separatists to form their own armed forces that's not needed with autonomy it is something that is not needed. The Ukrainians would not be able to have soverign integrity with another army in their country and then what would stop the separatists from allowing the Russians to base soldiers and equipment in their area which would create another crimea all over again. This truce can only work with complete disarmament by the rebels.

 

[BlueRose]

I can't see how the Ukrainian government can allow the separatists to form their own armed forces that's not needed with autonomy it is something that is not needed. The Ukrainians would not be able to have soverign integrity with another army in their country and then what would stop the separatists from allowing the Russians to base soldiers and equipment in their area which would create another crimea all over again. This truce can only work with complete disarmament by the rebels.

This is the whole point, the Rebels are too powerful to be controlled and the Russians get a divided country.

 

[Feanor]

Update - Situation on the Front

The Ukrainian MinDef apparently claimed that Russia used tactical nukes in Donbass.

Personal Comment: if they really said this, they've lost their minds completely. Though it seems what he actually said was, that Russian troops in Donbass have the 2S4 heavy mortar, with nuclear munitions. Either way, lunacy continues.

http://military-informant.com/index...na-donbasse-ispolzuyut-yadernye-snaryady.html

A new rebel sources map.

http://ic.pics.livejournal.com/dragon_first_1/72271520/3315/3315_original.jpg

A powerplant in Schastye, Lugansk Region, was hit by either arty or explosives, causing damage, and disrupting electricity to the region. Details are still unclear. There is also info that some of the objects in the powerplant are booby-trapped or mined by btln Aydar, when it retreated.

http://zloy-odessit.livejournal.com/785153.html
http://stainlesstlrat.livejournal.com/1023273.html

Fighting continues around the Donetsk airport despite the rumors of some sort of agreement involving the surrender of the airport. The info, unconfirmed, is that Ukraine has agreed to surrender the airport in exchange for a 5km retreat from Mariupol.

There is a report claiming that Ukraine tried to reinforce the airport, but failed. And claims that the rebels have gained a foothold in the airport.

http://military-informant.com/index...ka-v-obmen-na-otstuplenie-pod-mariupolem.html
http://ivanoctober.livejournal.com/624336.html
http://military-informant.com/index...to-nachalsya-shturm-donetskogo-aeroporta.html
http://azlok.livejournal.com/1062215.html
http://azlok.livejournal.com/1061538.html
http://military-informant.com/index...heniya-udalos-vojti-na-aerodrom-donetska.html

Aydar btln was ambushed. Again.

http://azlok.livejournal.com/1062880.html

The DNR says that the ceasefire ended 48 hours ago and the Ukrainian army has resumed shelling the city.

http://newsru.com/world/17sep2014/donetsk.html

Rebels have captured a second T-64BM.

http://military-informant.com/index...izirovannyj-tank-t-64bm-bulat-vs-ukrainy.html

Destroyed Ukrainian army vehicles.

http://hrapypris31.livejournal.com/178870.html

Battle damage in Ilovaysk.

http://hrapypris31.livejournal.com/178672.html

Photos of battle damage, destroyed Ukrainian vehicles, civilians in the war zone, and rebel fighters.

http://military-photos.livejournal.com/382399.html

Ukrainian positions in Debal'tsevo being shelled.

http://jerry24-it.livejournal.com/435247.html

26 bodies of Ukrainian soldiers found near Ilovaysk.

http://military-informant.com/index...ny-tela-26-pogibshikh-ukrainskikh-soldat.html

9 Ukrainian soldiers died as a result of an attack on their checkpoint near Donetsk.

http://military-informant.com/index...-blokpost-pogiblo-9-ukrainskikh-voennykh.html

The villages of Staromikhailovo and Patriotichnoe were lost to the rebels. The second and third links are google maps locations for the two villages.

http://military-informant.com/index...ontrolya-nad-dvumya-naselennymi-punktami.html
https://www.google.com/maps/place/S...2!3m1!1s0x40e099302dbd57f7:0xb27ea5df7a92fd14
https://www.google.com/maps/place/P...2!3m1!1s0x40e6c6944075b5d1:0x1d1ac1fefd5e8fee

An interesting video of Ukrainian troops leaving the Ilovaysk cauldron.

http://bmpd.livejournal.com/990883.html

 

[Feanor]

Update - Armed Forces

National Guard tankers are completing their training. Note how some of the tanks are T-72B. When/if they go to the front line, they will be the first T-72s on the front line from the Ukrainian side.

[nomedia="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kv58pbuCb-0#t=11"]Танкові підрозділи Ðацгвардії завершують Ñвою підготовку - YouTube[/nomedia]

A BTR-70 upgrade that consists of repairs and an A/C unit for the Ukrainian Border Guards.

http://twower.livejournal.com/1424488.html

A look at an MVD volunteer btln Krivbas.

http://twower.livejournal.com/1424818.html

KrAZ is replacing their engines from Yaroslavl MZ with engines from Cummins.

http://military-informant.com/index...vigatelyami-cummins-vmesto-yaroslavskikh.html

Russian experts say that Ukraine could create a nuclear bomb inside of 10 years.

http://military-informant.com/index...nie-10-let-schitayut-rossijskie-eksperty.html

In L'vov the first Dozor armored car is almost ready.

http://military-informant.com/index...raztsa-legkogo-bronetransportera-dozor-b.html

Rovno region wants to open a giant military storage facility there. They need money. However the equipment is old and would require a lot of time and money to bring to working condition.

http://military-informant.com/index...ada-voennoj-tekhniki-na-svoej-territorii.html

Improvised armored panels for the Ukrainian army.

http://twower.livejournal.com/1423152.html

Israel refused to sell Ukraine UAVs.

http://bmpd.livejournal.com/993460.html

Btln Aydar, improv armor.

http://jerry24-it.livejournal.com/435774.html

BTR captured by the rebels.

http://www.militaryphotos.net/forums/attachment.php?attachmentid=225352&d=1410804244

The unarmored Tigr car donated by Zhirinovskiy to the rebels, got into a car accident in rebel hands.

http://twower.livejournal.com/1422160.html

 

[Feanor]

Update - General Background

Protests are up again in Kiev. It's a mess. Some are against compromise with the rebels, some are for it. Some are demanding a cleanup of the Rada (which seems to be happening). Some are Right Sector activists, but some are regular people. Veterans from the volunteer btlns, those back from the front, are among the protesters, and have been contributing to the criticism of Poroshenko's government.

It also seems that they've given the rebels a chance to legalize their armed forces, as People's Militia, and of course amnesty for the fighters.

Personal Comment: Uh-oh. They're burning tires again. Maydan-3.0 here we go...

http://stainlesstlrat.livejournal.com/1022067.html
http://ivanoctober.livejournal.com/624833.html
http://stainlesstlrat.livejournal.com/1022368.html
http://stainlesstlrat.livejournal.com/1020558.html
http://stainlesstlrat.livejournal.com/1020032.html
http://stainlesstlrat.livejournal.com/1020395.html
http://newsru.com/world/15sep2014/porossh.html

There is some confusion over the exact text of the legislation giving Lugansk and Donetsk special status. It's unclear what this will amount to in the end.

http://newsru.com/world/18sep2014/zakon.html

Canada gave Ukraine a 200 mln USD credit line. Helpful, but not by much.

http://newsru.com/world/18sep2014/canadacredit.html

While Russia has blocked import of Norwegian fish, it's still making it into Russia through Belarus.

http://newsru.com/finance/17sep2014/salmontransitby.html

The UN says that 3.1 thousand have died in Ukraine.

http://newsru.com/world/16sep2014/doklad_un.html

Gazprom says that limitations of gas supplies to Slovakia are a result of repair work on a gas line.

http://newsru.com/finance/15sep2014/revers.html

 

[Blackshoe]

While Russia has blocked import of Norwegian fish, it's still making it into Russia through Belarus.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Ðûáà ïîøëà â îáõîä: ââîç ëîñîñÿ èç Íîðâåãèè â Áåëîðóññèþ óòðîèëñÿ

Another blog I follow that tracks Russia (specifically the oil industry and economy there) predicted when the self-sanctions first came up that the Russians would just get around it by importing it through Belarus, either legally or not. I suspect this process will be repeated with other products that can't be easily substituted.

 

[BlueRose]

Update - Situation on the Front

The Ukrainian MinDef apparently claimed that Russia used tactical nukes in Donbass.

Personal Comment: if they really said this, they've lost their minds completely. Though it seems what he actually said was, that Russian troops in Donbass have the 2S4 heavy mortar, with nuclear munitions. Either way, lunacy continues.

That's real bad idiocracy, that's the worst type of propaganda I've ever heard.

 

[Feanor]

Another blog I follow that tracks Russia (specifically the oil industry and economy there) predicted when the self-sanctions first came up that the Russians would just get around it by importing it through Belarus, either legally or not. I suspect this process will be repeated with other products that can't be easily substituted.

It'll get more interesting with components for thermal imaging equipment (as the primary vehicle thermals Russia uses are the Thales Catherine. They're license produced in Russia but I'm pretty sure that localization is well below 100%.

True, if Putin wanted to take that lot, he could. But he's shown no desire to do so. I reckon either those who say he wants a frozen conflict, or those who think he prefers an autonomous spoiler state within Ukraine, are right. Whichever, he'd get the power to disrupt, without having to take direct responsibility, which I think would suit him just fine.

He doesn't want to pay to prop up all the lands claimed by "Novorossiya", & nor do his oligarch friends see any use for Ukrainian tank factories or the like. He'll be happy to see the rebel lands, & use them as a stick to beat Ukraine with when it won't come to heel. For that, what the rebels have now (with a little tidying up, e.g. getting the Ukrainians away from Donetsk airport) is plenty. He can use the rebel demand for all of the two oblasts as a threat, to get lesser concessions.

But we're veering OT.

I think that if eastern Ukraine went as easily and willingly as Crimea, he would have taken it. But it didn't. And even Crimea right now is costing Russia a lot of money. Under those circumstances, you're right. He doesn't want them. In principle, however...

It will be interesting to see how Russia's post-Soviet allies react to this. Kazakhstan and Belarus have already made some statements indicating their dislike of the current situation. Kazakhstan is particularly vulnerable. It's nowhere near the West, China is hardly a better alternative, and the Islamic threat from the south is real. Not to mention their huge Russian minority in the north. North Kazakhstan is essentially Southern Siberia, for all intents and purposes. It's assignment to Kazakhstan was administrative, when they drew the borders of the Kazakh SSR up. It also has huge wealth in resources. Something Russia could definitely make ready and easy use of. On the other hand they've been quite pro-Russian, Nazarbaev being an old-school CPSU man.

 

[swerve]

I accept the difference between practice & principle. He'd like everything, but he takes cost-effectiveness into account.

Belarus is interesting because it was always the least 'non-Russian' of the SSRs.

The whole idea of a Belorussian language, rather than just a collection of dialects shading into Polish in the west & Russian in the east seems to be rather modern, from what I can discover. At least one local dialect was used as an administrative language in mediaeval Lithuania, but not attached to any sense of nationality, AFAIK. And in any case, nowadays Russian is the first language of most of the people of Belarus.

 

[stojo]

The whole idea of a Belorussian language, rather than just a collection of dialects shading into Polish in the west & Russian in the east seems to be rather modern, from what I can discover. At least one local dialect was used as an administrative language in medieval Lithuania, but not attached to any sense of nationality, AFAIK. And in any case, nowadays Russian is the first language of most of the people of Belarus.

Just one side note. Most of the Central and East-European languages are quite modern.

In most cases they are standardized with the advent of a modern state apparatus during the 19-th and in some cases, even the 20-th century. Typically, they are "invented" adding up words and grammatical traits, using some of the local dialects as a starting point. It is the case with Serbian, Bulgarian, Macedonian, Romanian, to some extent even Hungarian etc...

The fact that a language is "modern" and in some cases, even, almost exactly the same as the one used by other national group, does not make it a less important part of national identity.

It is common understanding among, virtually, all foreign linguists, that Serbs, Croatians, Bosniaks and Montenegrians are sharing the same language, and to a certain extent, even the same dialect of the same language (štokavski), and that the differences between the these "languages", are less than, for instance, differences between British and American English.

This, however, has almost no bearing on the fact that, as a consequence of brutal civil war of the nineties, and nationalism that pursued, governments of these respective nations now officially claim that Bosnian, Serbian, Croationa... are separate languages, and, mostly in Croatia, Montenegro and Bosnia, directly encourage the use of archaic, or newly coined words and phrases, just to prove the thesis of some sort of linguistic "exceptionalism".

The point is that one must not suppose that the very existence (or, indeed, lack of) an ancient linguistic tradition, has to have anything to do with modern day national identity. In the moment of the unification of Germany and Italy, less than 3% of the population, actually used the
modern day German and Italian in every-day communication - and, the number of people, able to understand it, was only slightly less higher....

 

[Nick underscore]

Interesting and has been mentioned on some social media sources.

Poland, Lithuania & Ukraine establishing the formation of a brigade-sized formation with a HQ in East Poland (Lubin), but with their respective units based within their countries. Unless this is a seed for future interoperability with NATO formations on a regular basis, it seems like a media stunt. Poland Sets Up Military Unit With Ukraine