Ukranian Crisis

[Waylander]

Looking at how the last countersanctions about restricting foreign food imports backfired I have a hard time seeing them succeed by adding new ones like closing their airspace. They would loose the money they get for the overflight rights and would most likely face immediate countersanctions against their own carriers.

Russia just can't hope of winning an economic war against the EU and US. Even playing the oil and gas card would seriously hurt europe but totally wreck Russia. I hope they don't go down that road. Nothing good comes of a proud country, with a heavy handed right leaning government which feels humilated and has a wrecked economy. Especially not if said country has more than a million soldiers and thousands of nuclear weapons...

 

[BlueRose]

Looking at how the last countersanctions about restricting foreign food imports backfired I have a hard time seeing them succeed by adding new ones like closing their airspace. They would loose the money they get for the overflight rights and would most likely face immediate countersanctions against their own carriers.

Russia just can't hope of winning an economic war against the EU and US. Even playing the oil and gas card would seriously hurt europe but totally wreck Russia. I hope they don't go down that road. Nothing good comes of a proud country, with a heavy handed right leaning government which feels humilated and has a wrecked economy. Especially not if said country has more than a million soldiers and thousands of nuclear weapons...

They've compensated by importing food from many other countries. 1:30 onward https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hFaUYyPrzGk

Sure, sanctions will hurt Russia; though a society with nationalistic pride and thinking/believing they are on the right side of history will go a long way. People did away with a lot less and still fought on in the past..(Soviet Union during WW2 for example)

 

[wittmanace]

They've compensated by importing food from many other countries. 1:30 onward https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hFaUYyPrzGk

Sure, sanctions will hurt Russia; though a society with nationalistic pride and thinking/believing they are on the right side of history will go a long way. People did away with a lot less and still fought on in the past..(Soviet Union during WW2 for example)

I agree to some extent regarding patriotic fervor and its ability to compensate, but I find any world war references or analogies to be so way off the mark. Its a crisis in relations, but this isnt Hitler invading, and it isnt a Kremlin looking to take on the west a la red alert. There are just too many fanciful ideas floating around, both regarding Russia's Island like superpower abilities and Putin's resilience to criticism, the idea that its a one man show etc on one side, along with the all powerful western angels of democracy and omnipotence on the other.

Ultimately sanctions will bite, but they will bite both sides. We dont know the Kremlin's endgame, the extent of the Kremlin control over the rebels, Ukraine's end game or what it would trade for peace, what the west is willing to do, how unified it is, or how far the west will go knowing sanctions and so forth bite both ways. Merkel's domestic pressure from industry regarding not sanctioning Russia is well documented, for example.

It probably isnt a question of who blinks first, but rather if there is a solution that allows both sides to appear to not have blinked, and how long it is before we get to that point.

 

[Strannik]

Russia just can't hope of winning an economic war against the EU and US. Even playing the oil and gas card would seriously hurt europe but totally wreck Russia....

I think Russia is being forced to participate in this economic hostility. In this case the war can go for as long as EU and US prepared to wage this war. For Russia there is no plausible options out.
How much damage can Russia take? It depends, for now, when population thinks that Russia is on the right side, it looks like the answer is a lot.
Under those conditions, I think, no economic sanctions “ could totally wreck Russia.”
There is a very good chance that if sanctions do not kill Russia, and I do not think they will, they will make it stronger.

 

[dprijadi]

I think Russia is being forced to participate in this economic hostility. In this case the war can go for as long as EU and US prepared to wage this war. For Russia there is no plausible options out.
How much damage can Russia take? It depends, for now, when population thinks that Russia is on the right side, it looks like the answer is a lot.
Under those conditions, I think, no economic sanctions “ could totally wreck Russia.”
There is a very good chance that if sanctions do not kill Russia, and I do not think they will, they will make it stronger.

agreed, iran and cuba are prime example on how sanction cannot wreck a nation, it can make them suffer but wreck it ? i dont think it is possible especially for russia. and lest we forget there's a big dragon watching in the east.

the sad part is that the whole western coalition even including japan trying to saction russia for what ? the world now see how the western alliance bullied russia economically and they all take note on this. As for russian involvement in ukraine , it is not a solo performance , since both the west and the east involved in ukraine powerplay since before the maidan coup against elected ukraine goverment.


i think 2015-2020 will be an interesting period..

 

[Waylander]

The rising food prices in Russia speak for themselves. This is not a great war for survival. Just like in the West the population has just so much stomach for economic hardships.

And Cuba as an example for a country which isn't wrecked by sanctions? The whole economy of Cuba is in shambles barely held afloat by the tourist and medical industries.

As for them sanctions being just a way of the west to bully Russia. Sure everybody supported it's side in Ukraine by political and financial means. That's hardly new or bad. But Russia annected the Krim and poured thousands of volunteers and regular troops along with boatloads of equipment into eastern Ukraine. All the while lying blatantly into everybodys face.

Economically hurting themselve is the last thing europe wants. One can see this when one looks at how difficult it is for the EU membery to agree on sanctions.

The West being out there to bully Russia economically is as much a weird perception as NATO being a threat to Russia. The demilitarization of Europe after. 1990 is without precedent. Germany alone went from 500k troops + reserves in the west and 160k troops + reserves in the east to ca. 180k troops without reserves worth the name. The rest of Europe looks similar.

 

[dprijadi]

And Cuba as an example for a country which isn't wrecked by sanctions? The whole economy of Cuba is in shambles barely held afloat by the tourist and medical industries.

Economically hurting themselve is the last thing europe wants. One can see this when one looks at how difficult it is for the EU membery to agree on sanctions.

The West being out there to bully Russia economically is as much a weird perception as NATO being a threat to Russia. The demilitarization of Europe after. 1990 is without precedent. Germany alone went from 500k troops + reserves in the west and 160k troops + reserves in the east to ca. 180k troops without reserves worth the name. The rest of Europe looks similar.

Cuba still exists and castro still alive and the population never rised against him.. ditto Iran..

as to west being a bully or russia being the aggressor , it depended on where you sit. Im sure it is viewed differently by the russians.

Example : When you read about Chinese stealing US military secret , are you shouted in joy for the chinese ? or do you curse the chinese intelligence for stealing US secrets ? as i said it depend very much on your personal bias / stance and it certainly will influence your opinion on such matters..

disclaimer : Im just a non-moslem asian with no connection to russia / US / china. i used to be heavily pro-US/pro-israel , but since 2004 i slowly lean toward non-aligned stance.

 

[Feanor]

And Cuba as an example for a country which isn't wrecked by sanctions? The whole economy of Cuba is in shambles barely held afloat by the tourist and medical industries.

Sanctions have to be goal-oriented. The examples provided illustrate how a hell-bent political leadership can defy the world, despite all sanctions. It doesn't matter if the Russian economy is wrecked. The goal here isn't to wreck Russia's economy. It's to influence Russian decision making. If that doesn't happen, then...

As for them sanctions being just a way of the west to bully Russia. Sure everybody supported it's side in Ukraine by political and financial means. That's hardly new or bad. But Russia annected the Krim and poured thousands of volunteers and regular troops along with boatloads of equipment into eastern Ukraine. All the while lying blatantly into everybodys face.

In other words Russia is willing further to protect their interests in Ukraine then the west. But that's not news. I was saying this all along. Crying about how unfair it is that one country goes further to protect it's interests then a coalition of others who are less invested and consequently want to arbitrarily limit the interference in the affairs of Ukraine to a level they're willing to engage in... well.

Russian leadership miscalculated horribly and the result is an appalling human cost. Their unwillingness to adapt and adjust their course is problematic. But saying this is a question of principle is silly. When you look at the history of how nation-states behave this is nothing new, not even particularly shocking.

Economically hurting themselve is the last thing europe wants. One can see this when one looks at how difficult it is for the EU membery to agree on sanctions.

The West being out there to bully Russia economically is as much a weird perception as NATO being a threat to Russia. The demilitarization of Europe after. 1990 is without precedent. Germany alone went from 500k troops + reserves in the west and 160k troops + reserves in the east to ca. 180k troops without reserves worth the name. The rest of Europe looks similar.

Si vis pacem, para bellum.

 

[Volkodav]

The irony of this entire situation is had Russia left well enough alone the Ukraine with its mind boggling corruption and incompetence would have imploded, probably before the end of the year and Russia could have sent in peace keepers to stabilise the situation that no one else wanted a part of. By sponsoring the rebels and all but invading Russia IMO has given Kiev a common enemy and seen them survive for longer than they may have without interference.

Sometimes you are better off keeping your distance from the drunk who is stumbling around aimlessly, get too close or be seen to be interfering and they may well smash a glass in your face or stick a knife in your ribs, better to let them fall and crack their head open before approaching to offer help.

 

[Feanor]

The irony of this entire situation is had Russia left well enough alone the Ukraine with its mind boggling corruption and incompetence would have imploded, probably before the end of the year and Russia could have sent in peace keepers to stabilise the situation that no one else wanted a part of. By sponsoring the rebels and all but invading Russia IMO has given Kiev a common enemy and seen them survive for longer than they may have without interference.

Spot on.

Sometimes you are better off keeping your distance from the drunk who is stumbling around aimlessly, get too close or be seen to be interfering and they may well smash a glass in your face or stick a knife in your ribs, better to let them fall and crack their head open before approaching to offer help.

Funny thing is, the same applies if you're trying to steal their wallet.

 

[Feanor]

Update - Situation on the Front

New map. Looks realistic.

http://u-96.livejournal.com/3751493.html

Poroshenko says that 1200 Ukrainian service members were freed from rebel captivity in a POW exchange. 863 remain in rebel hands.

http://twower.livejournal.com/1413712.html
http://112.ua/glavnye-novosti/za-po...bodyat-do-konca-nedeli-poroshenko-112196.html

Poroshenko visits Mariupol' and tells the locals to prepare defense of the city, despite the ceasefire.

http://twower.livejournal.com/1414061.html
http://zloy-odessit.livejournal.com/760991.html
http://stainlesstlrat.livejournal.com/1005436.html

A military commissariat in Kharkov region was fire on with a grenade launcher.

http://military-informant.com/index...ove-voenkomat-obstrelyali-iz-granatometa.html

Battle damage and wrecked vehicles in Lutugino.

http://jerry24-it.livejournal.com/414542.html

Destroyed vehicles near Mariupol'. Note the psy-ops BTR-80 in the last photo.

http://jerry24-it.livejournal.com/415460.html

Random, large, assortment of photos.

http://www.mariupolnews.com.ua/descr/48860

Destroyed BM-27 Uragan.

http://i.imgur.com/gr2VJRc.jpg

2S5 Giatsint captured by rebels.

http://www.militaryphotos.net/forums/attachment.php?attachmentid=225108&d=1410117743

OSCE says despite exchanges of fire, the ceasefire is still in place.

http://newsru.com/world/07sep2014/ocseukr.html

Russian BTR-82A destroyed in Ukraine.

http://military-informant.com/index...ichtozhennogo-bronetransportera-btr-82am.html

Volunteers digging defenses in Zaporozhye.

http://u-96.livejournal.com/3748033.html

Amnesty International provides satellite photos of Russian military arty in Ukraine.

http://newsru.com/world/07sep2014/aisays.html

Fighting in Mariupol'. On the outskirts.

http://stainlesstlrat.livejournal.com/1002675.html
http://stainlesstlrat.livejournal.com/1002819.html
http://newsru.com/world/07sep2014/mariupol.html
http://zloy-odessit.livejournal.com/757475.html

Btln Aydar ambushed during the ceasefire.

http://zloy-odessit.livejournal.com/755787.html

Destroyed BTR-3E. The first one.

http://bmpd.livejournal.com/983183.html

Ukrainian military ambulances being used to tow arty. Note the Red Cross markings.

http://bmpd.livejournal.com/982828.html

Ukrainian humanitarian aid could not be delivered to Lugansk, due to fighting.

http://newsru.com/world/06sep2014/mkkksays.html

 

[Feanor]

Update - Armed Forces

Ukrainian military.

http://u-96.livejournal.com/3745759.html

Rebel btln Kal'mius.

http://u-96.livejournal.com/3746640.html

Rebels capture a T-64BM.

http://i058.radikal.ru/1409/cc/0e408ab3891b.jpg
http://s017.radikal.ru/i408/1409/72/4872ac3ea179.jpg

Volunteers up-armor a Kamaz truck for Ukrainian border guard troops.

http://twower.livejournal.com/1413574.html

Rebel fighters.

http://stainlesstlrat.livejournal.com/1005865.html

Ukrainian volunteer btln Fenix is getting 1943 era mortars.

http://military-informant.com/index...oruzhili-minometami-1943-go-goda-vypuska.html

NATO countries deny that they will deliver weapons to Ukraine.

http://military-informant.com/index...govorennosti-o-postavkakh-oruzhiya-kievu.html
http://newsru.com/world/07sep2014/norway.html

LNR border guards sworn in. They look awfully uniform.

http://stainlesstlrat.livejournal.com/1003665.html

Rebel fighters in Pereval'sk. Note the T-72s. Sources indicate they're cossacks.

http://stainlesstlrat.livejournal.com/1003887.html
http://u-96.livejournal.com/3749281.html

RPD light machineguns being pulled out of storage for the Ukrainian MVD.

http://bmpd.livejournal.com/983705.html

US says they will supply Ukraine with medicine, flak jackets, auto-mobiles, and thermal vision devices.

http://military-informant.com/index...u-produktsiyu-kotoruyu-postavyat-ukraine.html

Improvised up-armored Kamaz for Ukrainian military.

http://www.militaryphotos.net/forums/attachment.php?attachmentid=225074&d=1410085625
http://www.militaryphotos.net/forums/attachment.php?attachmentid=225072&d=1410085598
http://www.militaryphotos.net/forums/attachment.php?attachmentid=225073&d=1410085610
http://www.militaryphotos.net/forums/attachment.php?attachmentid=225071&d=1410085584
http://www.militaryphotos.net/forums/attachment.php?attachmentid=225070&d=1410085571

Rebels, and destroyed Ukrainian vehicles. Note the rebel equipment being Russian digi camo.

http://u-96.livejournal.com/3745948.html
http://www.militaryphotos.net/forums/attachment.php?attachmentid=225057&d=1410043241
http://www.militaryphotos.net/forums/attachment.php?attachmentid=225055&d=1410043180

 

[Feanor]

Update - General Background

The regions under rebel control may get special status inside Ukraine. The rebels say that this will be de-facto independence. Ukrainian government may disagree.

http://newsru.com/world/09sep2014/osobstatus.html
http://newsru.com/world/08sep2014/separ.html

The US is pushing for additional sanctions against Russia.

http://newsru.com/world/09sep2014/newsanctpack.html

The EU passes additional sanctions against Russia.

http://newsru.com/world/08sep2014/takida.html

Total number of Ukrainians who have official refugee status has reached 105 000. Additional labor programs and employment opportunities are being set up, but the work is not mandatory.

http://newsru.com/russia/08sep2014/ref.html

1 billion roubles have been provided to Ukrainian refugees as aid.

http://newsru.com/russia/08sep2014/medvedev_2.html

Belarus is restoring a special border control region with Russia.

http://military-informant.com/index...chnuyu-zonu-s-osobym-propusknym-rezhimom.html

Ukrainian engine giant Motor Sich continues deliveries to Russia, despite presidential orders.

http://vz.ru/society/2014/9/5/704245.html

OSCE monitors begin work in Ukraine.

http://newsru.com/world/08sep2014/monitoring.html

The EU says they will reconsider sanctions against Russia under certain conditions.

http://newsru.com/world/08sep2014/peresmotr.html

Strelok in Russia with Gubarev.

http://u-96.livejournal.com/3747637.html

 

[Blackshoe]

Looking at how the last countersanctions about restricting foreign food imports backfired I have a hard time seeing them succeed by adding new ones like closing their airspace. They would loose the money they get for the overflight rights and would most likely face immediate countersanctions against their own carriers.

Russia just can't hope of winning an economic war against the EU and US. Even playing the oil and gas card would seriously hurt europe but totally wreck Russia. I hope they don't go down that road. Nothing good comes of a proud country, with a heavy handed right leaning government which feels humilated and has a wrecked economy. Especially not if said country has more than a million soldiers and thousands of nuclear weapons...

Putin's actions in this conflict haven't had a high degree of external rationality; that is to say, from the outside looking in, they've done very little that makes sense. Which tells me Putin isn't thinking too much about external influences and is driven 99% by internal factors that we probably have no clue about.

Which makes him that much more dangerous.

 

[Blackshoe]

Also, the Dutch have released their initial report on the MH17 downing.

Malaysia Airlines flight MH17 broke apart over Ukraine due to impact from a large number of fragments, the Dutch Safety Board said on Tuesday, in a report that Malaysia's prime minister and several experts said suggested it was shot down from the ground.

Trying to put up a link to the report itself, but the Internets are fighting me and I have not been able to actually preview the report, so I don't know what languages it's in.

Edited to add: [ame="http://www.scribd.com/doc/239142022/Preliminary-report-Crash-involving-Malaysia-Airlines-Boeing-777-200-flight-MH17"]Preliminary report Crash involving Malaysia Airlines Boeing 777-200 flight MH17[/ame].

 

[Volkodav]

Spot on.



Funny thing is, the same applies if you're trying to steal their wallet.

Yes but if someone catches you then you just pretend you were looking for ID to help them out

 

[Feanor]

Yes but if someone catches you then you just pretend you were looking for ID to help them out

Well my main point was that Russia would have been better off with the wait and see approach (and maybe giving a shove here and there) no matter what the desired end state was.

Just to give you guys a heads up, I won't have time to make an update post in the next few days. You can expect another one either Sunday or Monday. Sorry.

 

[BlueRose]

A French expert, supposedly said a missile could have only been "Launched From West"; in regards to the downing of MH17. French Expert Says Missile That Allegedly Hit MH17

 

[Musashi_kenshin]

A French expert, supposedly said a missile could have only been "Launched From West"; in regards to the downing of MH17.

Wow, and according to a Russian news website. The same Russian media that were all over Putin's lies about the little green men...

Sorry, I refuse to look at that article - I don't know where that website has been. At the very least please post this guy's resume and source it to an impartial site.

 

[Blackshoe]

Wow, and according to a Russian news website. The same Russian media that were all over Putin's lies about the little green men...

Sorry, I refuse to look at that article - I don't know where that website has been. At the very least please post this guy's resume and source it to an impartial site.

I checked it out for humor value. The expert did not seem to understand the concept of stern chase geometry and the limitations imposed thereby. Though I thought this quote was pretty money:

The French expert also complained that the investigation into the Boeing crash is lacking information and there is no surveillance data to confirm his version.

Doesn't stop him, however.

Interesting, now that I can really look at the report, the ATC comms section is interesting. The Russian ATC in Rostov was the first to note "that its target started falling apart" (the "its" in this case is the automated transponder system interrogations).