Ukranian Crisis

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crest

New Member
PO2GRV said:
Russian Army overt push in Eastern Ukraine. Only source I've seen so far. I take it the talks in Minsk aren't going well.

It seems like the goal is to make an example of Ukraine to the West: Russia will defend its strategic interests within its sphere of influence (so far) no matter the cost

was just about to post the same link this is also interesting

well there is some hyperbole about numbers killed by Ukrainian forces the number of 100 vehicles would completely unexplainable if its true I would also have to assume a good portion of the manpower is not native to the ukraine. By there own admission the rebels dont have the enough personal in the regions they control to operate the equipment they have let alone a very large mechanized armour formation in a new front.

I would like to know if fenor can confirm those numbers
 
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Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Is there reliable info concerning the deliveries of new equipment to the Ukrainian army and national guard? The Ukrainian media reported that about 20 Kuga and Spartan vehicles have been handed over so far, as well as 22 BTR-3 an some BTR-4. I've also read that they're trying to get new (?) BMP-2s, but this sounds rather strange to me.
Army or National Guard? It was supposed to be the National Guard that got those. As for the BMP-2s, they're probably talking about pulling them out of storage.

was just about to post the same link this is also interesting

well there is some hyperbole about numbers killed by Ukrainian forces the number of 100 vehicles would completely unexplainable if its true I would also have to assume a good portion of the manpower is not native to the ukraine. By there own admission the rebels dont have the enough personal in the regions they control to operate the equipment they have let alone a very large mechanized armour formation in a new front.

I would like to know if fenor can confirm those numbers
I can't. I wouldn't be surprised if more fighters and weapons crossed from Russia into Ukraine, but I don't have specific numbers.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Update.

Ukrainian troops still hold the road between Mairupol' and Novoazovsk.

УкраинÑкие Ñиловики контролируют траÑÑу Мариуполь - ÐовоазовÑк

Another government Mi-8 shot down.

militarizm:

Info from a Ukrainian volunteer fighter about massive losses in the 51th Mech Bde. It seems the 51st Mech is broken up into pieces, and some of it ended up surrounded near Ilovaysk.

evgenuss -
https://www.facebook.com/konstantyn.zinkevych?fref=ts
зри в корень - Ð¡ÐµÐ³Ð¾Ð´Ð½Ñ Ð±Ñ‹Ð» черный день Ð´Ð»Ñ 51 - й бригады. Еще Ñтрашнее раÑÑтрела под Волновахой

Both sides claim they control Novoazovsk.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Óêðàèíñêèå âîåííûå è ñåïàðàòèñòû ïî÷òè îäíîâðåìåííî çàÿâèëè î âçÿòèè Íîâîàçîâñêà

Saur-Mogila in rebel hands, again.

Блог ÐлекÑандра Шакуна - Ð’Ñ‹Ñоту таки взÑли.

Rebels in Ilovaysk.

КрыÑа из нержавеющей Ñтали - Ополченцы ДÐÐ* в ИловайÑке

Government forces in Ilovaysk. Dates are unclear. Rebel sources claim they took Ilovaysk. These photos may predate that, or government troops may still hold parts of the town. It may even be the case that a small group of government troops (maybe the 51st Mech Bde detachment) is near or on the outskirts of Ilovaysk.

zloy_odessit -

T-72 MBTs near/in Novoazovsk.

КрыÑа из нержавеющей Ñтали - Под ÐовоазовÑком - танки и деÑант

Rebels near Makeevka.

КрыÑа из нержавеющей Ñтали - на окраинах Макеевки

A rebel Nona-K gun/mortar system. A very rare cannon, only ~200 were produced in Soviet times, and only two existed in Ukraine. This is probably a Russian donation.

bmpd - "

Rebels capture a 2S19 Msta-S howitzer.

bmpd -

Commander of the Donbass volunteer btln accused the Ukrainian command of lying to cover up the defeats.

Ð”ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ñ ÐœÐ¾ÐºÑ€ÑƒÑˆÐ¸Ð½ - По текущим ÑобытиÑм

A press conference, involving the captured Russian soldiers.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Â Êèåâå ïðîøëà ïðåññ-êîíôåðåíöèÿ çàäåðæàííûõ ðîññèéñêèõ äåñàíòíèêîâ

Ukraine may intend to put the Russian soldiers on trial. The SBU has accused them of working with terrorist organizations.

ÂÅÄÎÌÎÑÒÈ - Ïðîòèâ ðîññèéñêèõ äåñàíòíèêîâ íà Óêðàèíå âîçáóæäåíî óãîëîâíîå äåëî

200 Ukrainians arrive for re-settlement in Magadan, on a federal program intended for Russian ex-patriots returning from abroad.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Â Ìàãàäàí èç Êðûìà äîñòàâëåíû îêîëî 200 óêðàèíñêèõ ïåðåñåëåíöåâ

Switzerland passes some far reaching sanctions against Russian banks.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Øâåéöàðèÿ ââåëà íîâûå ñàíêöèè ïðîòèâ ÐÔ è ïîîáåùàëà ñäåëàòü íåâîçìîæíûì óõîä îò íèõ

Poland sends 320 tonns of humanitarian aid to Ukraine.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Ïîëüøà îòïðàâèëà Êèåâó 320 òîíí ãóìàíèòàðíîé ïîìîùè, ãðóçîâèêè äîëæíû äîñòàâèòü åå äî êîíöà ëåòà
 

Volkodav

The Bunker Group
Verified Defense Pro
The thing that gets me is since Sept 11 2001 Russia has been one of the good guys, a responsible friendly nation willing to work with the rest of the world, a good global citizen. All that credit is gone now and for what to turn neighbouring countries (that aren't already in conflict with Russia) into hostile mistrusting enemies, that feel they have no choice but to move closer to the west?

I imagine that the lot of ethnic Russians throughout the region is much worse now than it was only a year ago because of what is happening in the Ukraine. Locals will be watching current events and now be concerned about what their Russian neighbours are up to, mistrust and hostility will be the common attitude where ethnic Russians are concerned now.

Ukraine is now a basket case and no one is a winner, neighbouring countries will now take precautions and move closer to the US and Europe to protect themselves from Russia. How does Russia win from this? Their credibility is shot, no one trusts them, no one wants to do business with them, I just do not understand why they are behaving the way they are it just does not make sense.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
The thing that gets me is since Sept 11 2001 Russia has been one of the good guys, a responsible friendly nation willing to work with the rest of the world, a good global citizen. All that credit is gone now and for what to turn neighbouring countries (that aren't already in conflict with Russia) into hostile mistrusting enemies, that feel they have no choice but to move closer to the west?

I imagine that the lot of ethnic Russians throughout the region is much worse now than it was only a year ago because of what is happening in the Ukraine. Locals will be watching current events and now be concerned about what their Russian neighbours are up to, mistrust and hostility will be the common attitude where ethnic Russians are concerned now.

Ukraine is now a basket case and no one is a winner, neighbouring countries will now take precautions and move closer to the US and Europe to protect themselves from Russia. How does Russia win from this? Their credibility is shot, no one trusts them, no one wants to do business with them, I just do not understand why they are behaving the way they are it just does not make sense.
You're spot on. It's a tremendous miscalculation. They over-estimated the weakness of Ukraine as a state (based on the Crimean annexation) and under-estimated Europe's willingness to sacrifice immediate economic benefits for strategic geo-political goals.
 

gazzzwp

Member
http://mobile.nytimes.com/2014/08/28/world/europe/ukraine-russia-novoazovsk-crimea.html?referrer=

Russian Army overt push in Eastern Ukraine. Only source I've seen so far. I take it the talks in Minsk aren't going well.

It seems like the goal is to make an example of Ukraine to the West: Russia will defend its strategic interests within its sphere of influence (so far) no matter the cost
I don't see that there is a lot the Ukrainians can do in the face of such a huge Russian involvement.

What now for Ukraine? Looks like the country will be further divided; Russia takes the lucrative eastern sector of the nation with it's mineral wealth and the Ukraine takes the rest.

Russia wins yet again. Just when the Government forces were getting the upper hand the iron curtain falls on the country once again. There is no justice.
 

Relboon

New Member
Volkodav
RF tried to work with US, but the west never gave up the idea of not letting RF become a strong and truly independed, and they created maidan. What was supose the RF do ? Roll over and die ?
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Should we be referring to 'Russian Forces' now instead of using the word 'Rebels'? It would seem to be more technically correct.
If you'd like... as long we make sure to distinguish the Russian-trained and Russian-backed un-uniformed fighters, from the actual Russian military. This is a significant distinction (in more ways then one), and we need to make sure we don't conflate the two.

Could this in fact be the prelude to a full invasion?
I doubt it. It looks like the tipping point was reached, and Russia tossed in the straws that broke the camels back. The rebels appear to be rolling back the government forces.

This is the latest pro-rebel map. I'm waiting for info on three major rebel offensives. One against the government troops around Lugansk, one towards Lisichansk and Severo-Donetsk, and one towards Volnovakha, surrounding those southern Ukrainian units that escaped the cauldron at Amvrosievka and Ilovaysk. The results of those actions will show a lot about how significant the defeats of government forces have been.

зри в корень - Карта боевых дейÑтвий на вечер 27.08.14

The German newspaper Süddeutsche Zeitung reports that NATO claims a Pantsir-S1 has been sighted in eastern Ukraine. However, no proof for this was given.

Ukraine: USA beschuldigen Russland, Offensive zu lenken - Politik - Süddeutsche.de
There were rumors in the Ukrainian blogosphere, but I'd disregard it until we have evidence. The rebels have had no problem downing helos and jets with MANPADS and AAA. It's possible that they wanted to test the Pantsyr under real combat conditions, but the Ukrainian air force is hardly a serious test for a system like the Pantsyr. It's primary purpose in current ORBAT is SHORAD for theater SAMs. The Ukrainian airforce has no SEAD or DEAD capabilities to speak of, and doesn't operate any modern cruise missiles. It's no impressive feat to knock down Mi-8 or Mi-24 helos with inexperience and untrained pilots, flying predictable routes at low altitudes.

Hell the rebels reported that they shot down one of the MiG-29s with machineguns, and ZU-23-2 fire, because it was doing strafing runs and dropping unguided bombs, at low altitude.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Volkodav
RF tried to work with US, but the west never gave up the idea of not letting RF become a strong and truly independed, and they created maidan. What was supose the RF do ? Roll over and die ?
Really? Come on. That's just nonsense.

A change of government in Ukraine means relatively little for Russia. Russia has already caused more damage to its international standing, economy, and relations with Europe, by it's current actions. The Russian government had a plethora of options which did not include dying.

1) Leave them alone. EU integration was not promised, nor is it likely that Ukraine would have found it easy to follow in the footsteps of other eastern European nations. There was a good chance that Poroshenko would have been little more then a Yuschenko 2.0. A little more corrupt, with a few more ties to the oligarch, and less ins with the nationalists.

2) Take a tough economic stance against Ukraine. That's partially being done now. Ukraine's primary export market is Russia, and the CIS countries. Shut down the Russian market, and apply pressure to CIS partners to do the same. The Ukrainian economy would have headed for rapid ruin (it already is) without any war in the east. And the EU doesn't need another problem child on it's hands.

3) Buy out the Ukrainian elites. They're rabidly anti-Russian, because they're quite afraid of being cleaned out by Putin the way Russian oligarchs were. But they have a price. Especially when EU membership would mean those elites would have to start paying taxes, following the law, etc. This option might have been harder to do, but certainly possible.

4) Buy out some EU governments, and get them to block Ukrainian EU membership. A few more fat contracts for French shipbuilding, or a few more investment into Bulgaria and the Czech Republic. Lord knows the VMF needs more then a couple of Mistrals.

5) Invade and annex Eastern Ukraine. Quickly, cleanly, with minimal bloodshed. It would worsen relations with Europe, and it would certainly mean the rest of Ukraine is lost. But it would protect Russian nationals, it would likely impoverish the rest of Ukraine, and it would avoid this massive bloodshed. In addition it would mean Russian federal money for the eastern Ukrainian provinces, to get their infrastructural development, as well as local government services, up to at least the level of an average Russian province. Certainly a much less foul option then what's happening now.
 

Goknub

Active Member
It will be interesting what the UA is able to do in response.

Considering the advances they have made in recent weeks I was guessing they were close to exhaustion and wondered if they would be smart enough to realise this and go over to the defensive to protect their gains whilst rebuilding for the next Operational level advance.

Seems they have overextended quite badly but then again it may also be the large area of operation leaves gaps that relatively small formations can move through to gain rapid territorial advances.

If they want to succeed they really need to concentrate on taking one of the two main cities.
 

Volkodav

The Bunker Group
Verified Defense Pro
Volkodav
RF tried to work with US, but the west never gave up the idea of not letting RF become a strong and truly independed, and they created maidan. What was supose the RF do ? Roll over and die ?
The west did not create maidan, it happened on its own accord as most such things do. Just because Putin is pulling the strings of the rebels doesn't mean Obama is doing the same.

By the way I actually like Russia (i.e wolfhound nick name) but am pissed at what appears to be one mans ego dragging the whole country backwards just as it was really starting to shine on the global stage. Russia may "win" eastern Ukraine in the short term but will suffer damage to its economy and reputation that will last for decades. Who in their right mind would trust or rely on Russia after this?
 
Really? Come on. That's just nonsense.

A change of government in Ukraine means relatively little for Russia. Russia has already caused more damage to its international standing, economy, and relations with Europe, by it's current actions. The Russian government had a plethora of options which did not include dying.

1) Leave them alone. EU integration was not promised, nor is it likely that Ukraine would have found it easy to follow in the footsteps of other eastern European nations. There was a good chance that Poroshenko would have been little more then a Yuschenko 2.0. A little more corrupt, with a few more ties to the oligarch, and less ins with the nationalists.

2) Take a tough economic stance against Ukraine. That's partially being done now. Ukraine's primary export market is Russia, and the CIS countries. Shut down the Russian market, and apply pressure to CIS partners to do the same. The Ukrainian economy would have headed for rapid ruin (it already is) without any war in the east. And the EU doesn't need another problem child on it's hands.

3) Buy out the Ukrainian elites. They're rabidly anti-Russian, because they're quite afraid of being cleaned out by Putin the way Russian oligarchs were. But they have a price. Especially when EU membership would mean those elites would have to start paying taxes, following the law, etc. This option might have been harder to do, but certainly possible.

4) Buy out some EU governments, and get them to block Ukrainian EU membership. A few more fat contracts for French shipbuilding, or a few more investment into Bulgaria and the Czech Republic. Lord knows the VMF needs more then a couple of Mistrals.

5) Invade and annex Eastern Ukraine. Quickly, cleanly, with minimal bloodshed. It would worsen relations with Europe, and it would certainly mean the rest of Ukraine is lost. But it would protect Russian nationals, it would likely impoverish the rest of Ukraine, and it would avoid this massive bloodshed. In addition it would mean Russian federal money for the eastern Ukrainian provinces, to get their infrastructural development, as well as local government services, up to at least the level of an average Russian province. Certainly a much less foul option then what's happening now.
Great summary Feanor and pretty much covers all the cogent alternative arguments.

Not sure I agree with option 5. Bloodless & bold yes, but would forever lose Ukraine as a sphere of influence and further push Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Moldovia, Georgia et al into an aggressive posture through plain paranoia.
 

the concerned

Active Member
I think the Ukrainians should get as much evidence on actual Russian deployments within Ukrainian borders and go back to the UN and declare this an invasion. I also think we should treat this no differently to when Saddam Hussein invaded Kuwait petty threats and sanctions are clearly not working and a more robust response is required.
 

Volkodav

The Bunker Group
Verified Defense Pro
I think the Ukrainians should get as much evidence on actual Russian deployments within Ukrainian borders and go back to the UN and declare this an invasion. I also think we should treat this no differently to when Saddam Hussein invaded Kuwait petty threats and sanctions are clearly not working and a more robust response is required.
The problem is Russia is a nuclear armed super power, trade, sporting and cultural sanctions are about the limit of what can be done.

I am afraid the world will just have to wait for Putin to retire or die and hope someone more reasonable takes over.
 
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