Ukranian Crisis

[BlueRose]

So it's okay as long as it's a limited invasion (and yes, sending your armed forces into another country without their permission is an invasion) is what you are saying?

If the Republic of Georgia wanted to send a small column of armor (another one spotted today) and ADA with artillery support into Abkhazia or South (or even North) Ossetia, or if Azerbaijan wanted to do the same into Dagestan...that there would be no need for Russia to make a "big fuss", as long as it's a "limited" invasion? Since you want to bring equivalency by bringing private security companies hired for internal security vice a nation-state's national military forces into the equation, it would also be fine if either of those two nations hired Academi to do the same (eg stage a limited incursion into another country)?

Or if the PLA wanted to do the same out in the Far East...again, fine as long as it's a limited force?

This conflict has been going on for several months, with both sides crossing each others border. This is neither new or surprising. Russia has harbored and treated the Ukrainian wounded with no problems. They also made not much of a fuss, of a lost Ukrainian column who drove several Kilometers towards Rostov. They've been very lenient on cross border shelling also.

Frankly you see these instances a lot; just a few days ago, PLA soldiers crossed into disputed territory with India. Though, that's a completely different situation than Ukraine.

 

[Feanor]

Update.

Pro-rebel sources, claim there are no government troops left near Ilovaysk.

зри в корень - ÐŸÐ¾Ð´Ñ€Ð°Ð·Ð´ÐµÐ»ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ñ Ð’Ð¡Ð£ полноÑтью отошли от ИловайÑка, тем Ñамым оголив тылы ...

More photos from the positions of the Donbass volunteer btln, taken in Ilovaysk.

jerry24_it:

More photos of destruction, presumably Ukrainian positions somewhere near Saur-Mogila.

jerry24_it:

Kiev troops leaving Mariupol', towards Dnepropetrovsk.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3JgRVQGES-s

Another cauldron, with elements of the 28th and 30th Mech, and 95th Airmobile, as well as the HQ of the 8th Corps.

A Battalion Tactical Group of the 28th Bde broke out of the encirclement, but lost a lot of their vehicles and artillery.

Вахтенный журнал Ñтареющего пирата - Шо? Я опÑÑ‚ÑŒ в отпуÑке что-то пропуÑтил?..
ОдеÑÑÐºÐ°Ñ Ð¼ÐµÑ…Ð±Ñ€Ð¸Ð³Ð°Ð´Ð° вырвалаÑÑŒ из котла, потерÑв почти вÑÑŽ бронетехнику

Photos of destroyed vehicles, allegedly the 95th Airmobile.

http://www.militaryphotos.net/forums/attachment.php?attachmentid=224423&d=1409070699
http://www.militaryphotos.net/forums/attachment.php?attachmentid=224424&d=1409070734
http://www.militaryphotos.net/forums/attachment.php?attachmentid=224425&d=1409070750
http://www.militaryphotos.net/forums/attachment.php?attachmentid=224426&d=1409070773
http://www.militaryphotos.net/forums/attachment.php?attachmentid=224427&d=1409070814

Captured Ukrainian BMP-2s. The guns appear to be missing.

http://www.militaryphotos.net/forums/attachment.php?attachmentid=224385&d=1409031119
http://www.militaryphotos.net/forums/attachment.php?attachmentid=224384&d=1409031042

Fighting near Novoazovsk continues.

zloy_odessit -

Svoboda is sending a volunteer btln to the east.

КрыÑа из нержавеющей Ñтали - ВО Свобода отправлÑет добровольчеÑкий батальон «СИЧ»

Video of massive quantities of armor allegedly near the Ukrainian border.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RNCP8qvoYtU#t=75

Meanwhile in Kramatorsk.

КрыÑа из нержавеющей Ñтали - а в Ñто Ð²Ñ€ÐµÐ¼Ñ Ð² КраматорÑке

Photos of military equipment for the Ukrainian Army.



The Ukrainian MinDef is handing over equipment from old storage, to the National Guard.

[url=http://military-informant.com/index.php/news/6465-v-ukraine-prinyato-reshenie-raskonservirovat-voennye-sklady.html]Ðа Украине принÑто решение раÑконÑервировать военные Ñклады

Videos of interrogations of the Russian military personnel.

КрыÑа из нержавеющей Ñтали - ДопроÑÑ‹ пленных роÑÑийÑких деÑантников

 

[swerve]

Feanor: link to that map.

 

[crest]

Good question. However, I have another one. Why VDV infantry? There are iirc 6 SpN Brigades, plus an SpN regiment in the VDV, plus new the Special Operations Center (a structure created for the explicit purpose of fighting wars like this one, unofficially). But instead we have... regular VDV?



I would at this point assume that the SpN are involved, I had been assuming that for awhile now as well as command and tech support from the russian officer corps was being provided. The west must have known about this for some time, the bigger question at this point is how to they react. Will all parties continue the charade as it is. Or will the west put up more sanctions or even military support.
Sorry i dont have the link but i did read one article were the pentagon was discussing sending drones with hellfire missiles to ukraine. Well i doubt they would be willing to go that far the fact that russia may now be caught "red handed" may force a escalation on there part.

If the west dosnt, we can only assume russia will continue to or even escalate the movement of men and material. If the reaction is a quite one the Ukrainian forces are going to need to take there objects quickly. Personally i would be surprised if they manage that the rebel forces have up to this point proved to be tactically much more competent then there adversaries



" fenor quote" Apparently so. Stupid, and strange in my opinion. Given Putin's much more intelligent plays with the humanitarian convoy, and the Syrian situation, this honestly looks stupid. Especially given what kind of personnel are involved. fenor quote"


With the Ukrainians sustained military pressure on the rebels and there small numbers (battle fatigue must be starting to affect some units). Im fairly sure the rebel forces were close to collapsing without reinforcements. If Putin isnt willing to lose the ukraine short of a overt invasion he may not have had and other expedient options

 

[Twain]

No. The first real evidence has emerged now and only now. Before this we had messy reports, a couple of instances of open and obvious falsification, and some indirect evidence that Russian secret services are involved. Actually what's been shown over and over again that the majority of the rebels are god knows who, from all over the world, from Central Asia to the Balkans.

Are you seriously contending that the majority of the troops fighting on the russian side aren't russian citizens??

 

[Feanor]

With the Ukrainians sustained military pressure on the rebels and there small numbers (battle fatigue must be starting to affect some units). Im fairly sure the rebel forces were close to collapsing without reinforcements. If Putin isnt willing to lose the ukraine short of a overt invasion he may not have had and other expedient options

The problem is that the exact extent and nature of Russian military involvement is unclear. For the past few weeks, Kiev forces have been in a meatgrinder, taking large casualties, and having their offensive pushes either repulsed, or cut off and destroyed, repeatedly. If this was the result of direct Russian military involvement, then your assessment is correct. But if not, then this move was unnecessary. I don't think the Army could have maintained their operations in the east, at the rate they were burning through men and equipment at.

Are you seriously contending that the majority of the troops fighting on the russian side aren't russian citizens??

I think you need more serious evidence to make statements about citizenship. If I had to take an eyeball estimate I'd probably agree with your assessment, but to positively state so is another thing. Either way that's not the point. Leaving your word games aside, this is the first solid evidence of Russian military involvement (i.e. the VS RF personnel). The rebels are the rebels, Russian troops are Russian troops. Keeping the two separate is significant for a number of reasons.

Feanor: link to that map.

Thank you. Rebel sources are claiming that the southern offensive is a raid by their personnel, but I think that's a lie. Novoazovsk is under heavy indirect fire (unsure if arty or mortars). And large numbers of National Guard troops and territorial btlns have been spotted retreating/fleeing.

 

[gf0012-aust]

Also, don't forget that American Mercenary groups, such as Academi are providing security for Mr. Poroshenko in Kiev.

that's not accurate

Academi (and I've pointed this out before) are not Blackwater. Its a completely different company and they basically provide people under these contracts as PPT's

That's no different to the Saudis using Pakistanis as PPT's

(and I have dealt with PPT's, so this is not internet research experience talking but actual exp.)

equating a PPT with Russians providing heavy armour, trained operators and failing a schoolboys orientation course by getting lost 25km inside a border are not the same thing. The worst GPS is out by 50m. even an amateur map reader can't bugger up getting lost inside another countries borders. That would mean that their map co-ords weren't even on that grid. IOW an absolute farago of lies - or the worst troops in the russian army managed to pass basic training but failed boy scout level orientation classes.

 

[Relboon]

I`m not a military specialist (never served), not even an enthusiast. So people who really know, can you please look at the way the conflict was going and evaluate the decisions made by Ukrainian command ? I`m just very curios, most of people here say that "Rebels would never be able to hold if not alleged RF AF involvement", well tell me, did UA command made all the right choices ? Did they at least made and OK moves or not ?

Did Russia helped ? Of course it did, otherwise is would have been impossible.
Why they did it this way ? Because that is the type of the world we have now, that world and the rules was written primarily by US in my opinion.
Why did it happen ? Because western made and sponsored maidan destroyed a very delicate balance that was present in that region.
It all depends on the POV, you are biased towards west and Russia will always be bad for you, you are prepared to believe anything without a single shred of evidence, just read 20-30 pages back about the plane, most of you were blaming rebels and Russia even before first proper pictures came to the light, and that pathetic part with photos of BUK that turned out to be photos from UA side. I`m not saying it is bad or something, it is just a POV. Mine is different, I see that west played a dangerous game and losing at the moment, and every single death in this conflict is on the western block. I also read the topic about Iraq and boy how different you opinions there, but essentially the situations is not that different, west played their games and now innocent people pay.

The western countries (old europe first and then US when it was created) has been trying to destroy Russian Fediration\USSR\Russian Empire for many centuries, and came close several times, but always ultimately failed, well now we just witness a hot phase of yet another battle.

 

[stojo]

that's not accurate
The worst GPS is out by 50m. even an amateur map reader can't bugger up getting lost inside another countries borders. That would mean that their map co-ords weren't even on that grid. IOW an absolute farago of lies - or the worst troops in the russian army managed to pass basic training but failed boy scout level orientation classes.

This is total flamed up overstatement. Just check reality. Even US marines made similar errors in Macedonia - during the Kosovo conflict. Three of them took a strayed off, ended up inside Serbia, and got captured.

 

[crest]

The problem is that the exact extent and nature of Russian military involvement is unclear. For the past few weeks, Kiev forces have been in a meatgrinder, taking large casualties, and having their offensive pushes either repulsed, or cut off and destroyed, repeatedly. If this was the result of direct Russian military involvement, then your assessment is correct. But if not, then this move was unnecessary. I don't think the Army could have maintained their operations in the east, at the rate they were burning through men and equipment at..

Agreed the level of involvement is unclear, what does seem clear (tho not crystal clear) is that russia is willing to provide the men and material necessary to keep the Ukrainian forces from achieving a victory. In regards to the continued surrounding and destroying of Ukrainian forces I would be hard pressed to believe that the rebel forces could achieve such stunning and repeated success without a high level of russian involvement. Not just in equipment and no doubt well trained officers and specialists, but some seriously high level of Intel the rebels seem to be acutely aware of just were the Ukrainian forces are what there doing and how well supported they are

Agreed the ukrainian army could not and can not sustain the pressure. I think they were gambling on either russia not escalating or the west responding to any russian escalation with military, economic and political support. If that materializes remains to be seen. But it did just get harder for them to ignore the level of involvement russia is actually providing

Without westen economic and political if not military backing keiv must know they have a limited window to achieve a victory

 

[Todjaeger]

This is total flamed up overstatement. Just check reality. Even US marines made similar errors in Macedonia - during the Kosovo conflict. Three of them took a strayed off, ended up inside Serbia, and got captured.

There is a difference in going off course and making a slight incursion into another nation, and going 25 km into another nation.

From a landnav SAR course I took, if one is using GPS and a map, but uses the wrong coordinate set, then you can end up ~400 metre from where you expected. An error of 25 km, or 25,0000 metres is a significantly greater distance than a reasonable error could cause. So either is was deliberate, or the personnel were/are incompetent.

 

[gf0012-aust]

This is total flamed up overstatement. Just check reality. Even US marines made similar errors in Macedonia - during the Kosovo conflict. Three of them took a strayed off, ended up inside Serbia, and got captured.

I can think of 3 recent examples where one force strayed into another countries border and caused an incident

1st was maritime where one country used the continental shelf as their marker for the start of their boundary - the other used the land mass as the delimiter of the start - solved by both countries comparing maps

2nd was an armed conflict where one side had maps that were out of date and never been updated since independence - again, when their maps were updated no problems occurred further - and that was a 100m boundary error

3rd was a cross border incursion - again due to one side having inaccurate maps - and corrected by GPS when both sides compared their maps - again less than half a click on the error contact

25km is not a cross border accident - 1km, maybe 2km could be, but all recent examples were on average less than half a click on land incursions.

25km is a long stretch of generosity to argue that its by omission - its either by commission or they're worse than brand new boy scouts

 

[Blackshoe]

There is a difference in going off course and making a slight incursion into another nation, and going 25 km into another nation.

From a landnav SAR course I took, if one is using GPS and a map, but uses the wrong coordinate set, then you can end up ~400 metre from where you expected. An error of 25 km, or 25,0000 metres is a significantly greater distance than a reasonable error could cause. So either is was deliberate, or the personnel were/are incompetent.

Some quick Google-Fu indicates that the captured US Army soldiers in 1999 were pretty close to the border when they were captured, although they do seem to have crossed it.

They were most certainly not 20km inside the border which would require stupidity on a level unseen outside of dictatorships who put the generalissimo's dumbest nephew in an infantry platoon commander role.

Off topic: weird to look at all the websites covering it (like CNN and BBC and think that was 15 years ago and how much has changed, both for the world and the Internet.

 

[Todjaeger]

Some quick Google-Fu indicates that the captured US Army soldiers in 1999 were pretty close to the border when they were captured, although they do seem to have crossed it.

They were most certainly not 20km inside the border which would require stupidity on a level unseen outside of dictatorships who put the generalissimo's dumbest nephew in an infantry platoon commander role.

Off topic: weird to look at all the websites covering it (like CNN and BBC and think that was 15 years ago and how much has changed, both for the world and the Internet.

From my memory of the incident in the Balkans, the US personnel (I do not remember whether it was Army or USMC...) were very close to the border, and IIRC some of the discussion amongst people in my circles at the time wondered if they had accidentally crossed the border, or had been snatched and taken across the border.

The 25 km border incursion I was referencing was the apparent Russian incursion into the Ukraine. BTW a 25 km nav error for a Boy Scout (even a new one) would still be pretty unlikely.

-Cheers

 

[Feanor]

You guys are looking at the wrong things. LandNav error plausibility doesn't matter a whole lot when you consider: 1) the personnel in question aren't wearing standard uniforms 2) They're a very small group and 3) the timing coincides with a number of actions against government forces, by the rebels. This is not an accident.

I'll try to clarify what is happening. The entire southern front from the government side seems to have collapsed. This is a rebel-sourced map from before the rebel forces hit Amvrosievka. It's probably not far from the truth.

https://pp.vk.me/c616328/v616328038/20453/0zEGehRxVAg.jpg

It's clear that the rebels have done what Soviet military terminology calls "вырваться на оперативный простор". They've broken the front, and are engaging in operational level maneuver. I'd like to note that this was planned and heavily supported by Russian resources. The Ukrainian military has shown itself to be rather ineffective at the operational level, and has been most successful when they can apply overwhelming resources in a localized manner over a period of time. By forcing them to fight on the move, across a large area, the rebels have gained a decisive advantage. As is, Mariupol' is barely defended, the border from nearly Saur-Mogila to the sea is basically open. There are reports of rebel troops pushing to Volnovakha. If they taken it, then they hold the N-20 highway heading north to Donetsk, the only major road out of Mariupol' will be the coastal E-58.

It's unclear what exactly is surrounded, because the government forces fight in separated btln level groups, rather then entire brigades. But the total numbers must be quite large. Also quite a large number of soldiers are just scattered. Finally physical destruction of vehicles and equipment is continuing. If they keep this up, the government will have to pull a lot of things out of storage to replace these losses.

 

[Feanor]

I`m not a military specialist (never served), not even an enthusiast. So people who really know, can you please look at the way the conflict was going and evaluate the decisions made by Ukrainian command ? I`m just very curios, most of people here say that "Rebels would never be able to hold if not alleged RF AF involvement", well tell me, did UA command made all the right choices ? Did they at least made and OK moves or not ?

Or not. The push along the border was risky, slow, and ultimately a disaster. Their use of artillery against urban areas has been ineffective. Their recon, at times, seems to be downright awful, especially the incident in Shahtersk, where they drove a light-armor column straight into rebel MBTs. The use of the Territorial Defense volunteer btlns is downright stupid. They have often acted without coordinating with other units, they don't have proper training, or equipment, and they're attracting the most motivated and eager to fight personnel. It ends up being where the Army and MVD have better equipment, but worse personnel (unmotivated, unwilling to fight conscripts) while the better motivated and eager nationalists end up in semi-anarchic volunteer formations that are ill-equipped (especially in heavy equipment) and ill prepared to deal with a serious enemy. Their primary success has come from their ability to focus disproportionately large resources against rebel strong-holds.

Which brings us to the rebels, who have every advantage, and yet until very recently were losing strategically while winning tactically. This tells us the rebels are few in numbers (this is backed by Strelkov's lamentations about the lack of local volunteers to join the fight) but well equipped and well supplied. The manner in which the rebels fight, as well as interviews with many rebels, reveals that they're from all over the ex-USSR and even the Far Abroad, many of them veterans of other conflicts. This gives us a decent profile of the rebels.

 

[Todjaeger]

You guys are looking at the wrong things. LandNav error plausibility doesn't matter a whole lot when you consider: 1) the personnel in question aren't wearing standard uniforms 2) They're a very small group and 3) the timing coincides with a number of actions against government forces, by the rebels. This is not an accident.

Agreed, which is why several of us mentioned the accuracy of nav systems. 25 km on the wrong side of a border is either (A) an example of colossal incompetence to such a degree as to be unlikely, or (B) a deliberate incursion for one (or more) reason or another.

Occam's Razor makes (B) much more likely. The "why" of the incursion would be interesting to know, but that is unlikely to happen in a reliable fashion any time soon, at least in the public domain.

 

[Volkodav]

This is total flamed up overstatement. Just check reality. Even US marines made similar errors in Macedonia - during the Kosovo conflict. Three of them took a strayed off, ended up inside Serbia, and got captured.

GPS was not, I believe, on general issue at section or squad level in the USMC at the time of Kosovo. I could be wrong but GPS has only been really affordable and common for the last decade.

 

[Klaus]

Is there reliable info concerning the deliveries of new equipment to the Ukrainian army and national guard? The Ukrainian media reported that about 20 Kuga and Spartan vehicles have been handed over so far, as well as 22 BTR-3 an some BTR-4. I've also read that they're trying to get new (?) BMP-2s, but this sounds rather strange to me.

 

[Relboon]

and IIRC some of the discussion amongst people in my circles at the time wondered if they had accidentally crossed the border, or had been snatched and taken across the border.

Read more: http://www.defencetalk.com/forums/newreply.php?do=newreply&noquote=1&p=284825#ixzz3Bb9jbWLR

That version is also was voiced by some people, and it could be true, but unlikely.