Ukranian Crisis

Twain · Aug 19, 2014

Feanor said:
Well does the EU want to be in a proxy war with Russia over Ukraine? I honestly don't think it's worth it.

The EU doesn't either at this point but that wasn't the point of the post. The point was what they could do but currently aren't doing.

Feanor said:
What makes you say that?

Kerry: U.S. Taped Moscow

https://twitter.com/poroshenko/status/500746743194341376

Ukraine detains Russian military attaché for spying | Reuters

Ukraine Boasts of Rounding Up Russian Spies. Will Washington Notice?

The Security Service of Ukraine

The Security Service of Ukraine

The Security Service of Ukraine

The Security Service of Ukraine

Security Service of Ukraine Captured Russian Spy - Ukraine Investigation

Perhaps most importantly, Advice from someone who has had to deal with a russian invasion

What to Do When Russia Invades Your Country - The Daily Beast

I mean seriously Feanor, what could possibly make you believe that Russia doesn't have agents infiltrated into the Ukraine gov't and military?

Feanor said:
Right. Let's give Ukraine top notch western gear... no way it'll get captured by separatists, or get sold to Russia by corrupt officers, or get inspected and it's secrets stolen by Russian spies.

Really you say this and just moment ago you tried to imply they aren't infiltrated with spies?

But anyway, who said anything about giving them "top notch" western gear? I certanily didn't. They can however give them some communications equipment that every mercenary with a 20 year old russian radio can't listen in on.

Feanor said:
The EU and US can certainly help with intel, but can they help with the deep institutional reforms the Ukrainian military needs, in the middle of a war? Is that even the best way to win this war?

Can they help reform the Ukranian military? I'm sure they can, the question is how successful they will be. I do know there are a least a few Penragon advisers in Kiev now.

Feanor said:
So far Ukraine has been winning through superior resources. If you really want to bolster their military, wouldn't that be the simplest and most direct way of doing so? Give them more gear, weapons, and munitions. They will mobilize more of their own people, and eventually beat the rebels into submission or destruction.

They may be doing that already with the transfer of T-72's and possibly Mig 29's from Hungary and later MI-8s (?) from Croatia. It wouldn't surprise me at all to see a lot of ex russian equipment from Eastern European countries start arriving in Ukraine in the coming weeks and months.

Feanor · Aug 19, 2014

Relboon said:
As usual not exactly taken but rather contested, the DNR forces retreated to the nearby hill that controls the village, and now they are fighting in the village itself again.

Do you have more specific info or a source? In Russia is fine if you don't have english.

Twain said:
I mean seriously Feanor, what could possibly make you believe that Russia doesn't have agents infiltrated into the Ukraine gov't and military?

You misunderstand. I have no doubts Ukraine is thoroughly infiltrated. My question is, why you think the EU would be able to help with rooting them out?

Really you say this and just moment ago you tried to imply they aren't infiltrated with spies?

See above.

But anyway, who said anything about giving them "top notch" western gear? I certanily didn't. They can however give them some communications equipment that every mercenary with a 20 year old russian radio can't listen in on.

The Russian military has set up quite a bit of ELINT and EW gear on the Russia side of the border. I wouldn't be too surprised if they're listening in, and relaying to the rebels. You'd need modern gear, and lots of it. You'd also need to train operators at ever level.

They may be doing that already with the transfer of T-72's and possibly Mig 29's from Hungary and later MI-8s (?) from Croatia. It wouldn't surprise me at all to see a lot of ex russian equipment from Eastern European countries start arriving in Ukraine in the coming weeks and months.

Yep. That would be the most practical way of helping Ukraine win. The question will also be, however, whether Ukraine can make good use of that equipment. They're taking a pummeling right now that's rather surprising.

Feanor · Aug 19, 2014

Relboon · Aug 21, 2014

Sorry for delay, rough time at work.

Do you have more specific info or a source? In Russia is fine if you don't have english.

Read more: http://www.defencetalk.com/forums/newreply.php?do=newreply&noquote=1&p=284414#ixzz3B3LEy25D

Source yurasumy -

A fun picture of Poroshenko with T-72 behind him, and there was so many discussions about UA army using only T-64 (for a very long time this was the main point in the Russia supplying weapons debates).

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mijv8tfKRBE
DNR forces take another tank from UA army.

Feanor · Aug 21, 2014

Relboon said:
Sorry for delay, rough time at work.

Source yurasumy -

A fun picture of Poroshenko with T-72 behind him, and there was so many discussions about UA army using only T-64 (for a very long time this was the main point in the Russia supplying weapons debates).

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mijv8tfKRBE
DNR forces take another tank from UA army.

Photo's kind of old. it's from an expo where Poroshenko showed off new equipment for the National Guard. The T-72B along with the T-64B1M were meant for some new National Guard unit, along with the BTR-3 and BTR-4 APCs. I was wondering if you had a source backing the statement that Stanitsa Luganskaya was being contested. I was mainly interested in any detailed info on the fighting you had.

Feanor · Aug 21, 2014

Update.

The Ukrainian airforce seems to be falling out of the skies at record rates. They lost an Su-24M on August 20th, and 3 helicopters over the last few days (2 Mi-8 and 1 Mi-24). The Mi-8 crew in both shootdowns is the same one. They successfully survived one shootdown, flew again, and are now hospitalized. This, in my opinion, shows a lack of pilots. A question that was discussed earlier. The Mi-24 crew is dead.

The situation is so bad that the US is even considering providing self-defense suites to the UkrAF.

militarizm:
militarizm: 18-20
bmpd -
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A Tochka missile fell on Lugansk. Source claim it's a Tochka-U but it's clearly a regular Tochka.

MilitaryRussia.Ru / Military.Tomsk.Ru -

Rebels in Donetsk. I'm once again impressed by how many of them look old.

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Battle damage in Lugansk.

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Another probably fake announcement about capturing a Russian BMD-2 with bort number 275. However bort 275 is a BMD-4 not a BMD-2.

peremogi:
ÐšÑ€Ñ‹ÑÐ° Ð¸Ð· Ð½ÐµÑ€Ð¶Ð°Ð²ÐµÑŽÑ‰ÐµÐ¹ ÑÑ‚Ð°Ð»Ð¸ - Ð‘ÐœÐŸ Ð’Ð¡ Ð Ð¤ Ð¿Ð¾Ð´ Ð›ÑƒÑ‚ÑƒÐ³Ð¸Ð½Ð¾

Transnestria is mobilizing. Officially it's a training exercise involving reservists, but practically it amounts to a mobilization.

Ð’ ÐŸÑ€Ð¸Ð´Ð½ÐµÑÑ‚Ñ€Ð¾Ð²ÑŒÐµ Ð½Ð°Ñ‡Ð°Ð»Ð°ÑÑŒ ÑÐºÑ€Ñ‹Ñ‚Ð°Ñ Ð¼Ð¾Ð±Ð¸Ð»Ð¸Ð·Ð°Ñ†Ð¸Ñ Ð²Ð¾ÐµÐ½Ð½Ð¾ÐÐ±ÑÐ·Ð°Ð½Ð½Ñ‹Ñ…

The National Guard is being given the job of guarding nuclear fuel transports, and space rockets in transport.

bmpd -

Ukrainian customs officials are letting through the Russian humanitarian aid.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Óêðàèíà íà÷àëà îôîðìëåíèå ðîññèéñêîãî ãóìàíèòàðíîãî ãðóçà íà ÊÏÏ "Äîíåöê-Èçâàðèíî"

BlueRose · Aug 22, 2014

A U.S. Veteran was apparently KIA in Ukraine.
US Army veteran, West Point grad killed fighting for Ukraine | Fox News

Russia went ahead and sent 30 aid trucks across the border without Ukrainian permission.
http://rt.com/news/182224-putin-merkel-aid-ukraine/

I wonder how the Ukrainian's will respond, this can certainly spin out of control.

Twain · Aug 22, 2014

Things are going to get ugly

NATO: Russian-manned units shelling Ukrainian troops

NATO officials said on Friday that Moscow has sent Russian-manned artillery units into Ukraine in recent days and was using them to shell Ukrainian forces as part of a "major escalation" of Russian involvement in the disputed region.

NATO spokeswoman Oana Lungescu said the Western alliance had received numerous reports of the direct involvement of Russian forces, "including Russian airborne, air defense and special operations forces in Eastern Ukraine," The New York Times reports.

Feanor · Aug 22, 2014

BlueRose said:
A U.S. Veteran was apparently KIA in Ukraine.
US Army veteran, West Point grad killed fighting for Ukraine | Fox News

Russia went ahead and sent 30 aid trucks across the border without Ukrainian permission.
http://rt.com/news/182224-putin-merkel-aid-ukraine/

I wonder how the Ukrainian's will respond, this can certainly spin out of control.

A lot more then 30. Over 100 have crossed the border.

Twain said:
NATO spokeswoman Oana Lungescu said the Western alliance had received numerous reports of the direct involvement of Russian forces, "including Russian airborne, air defense and special operations forces in Eastern Ukraine," The New York Times reports.

Emphasis mine. I've seen multiple reports claiming the same. Maybe it's true. Maybe it's not. Is there evidence?

Feanor · Aug 22, 2014

Twain · Aug 22, 2014

Feanor said:
Emphasis mine. I've seen multiple reports claiming the same. Maybe it's true. Maybe it's not. Is there evidence?

It really doesn't matter if it's true or not, If Nato (and The EU) are convinced there are russian troops in Ukraine, they will base their decisions on that reality.

Feanor · Aug 22, 2014

Twain said:
It really doesn't matter if it's true or not, If Nato (and The EU) are convinced there are russian troops in Ukraine, they will base their decisions on that reality.

If you want to go that route, we have to go one step further and say that we don't know whether NATO is convinced or not. All we know is that they're publicly stating they're convinced. What they actually base their decision making on could be entirely different information.

But to me it does matter. I'm not NATO or the EU. I don't have decisions to make. I want to know what's actually going on. Hence why I'd like to see the evidence, if it exists.

Capt. Ironpants · Aug 24, 2014

This is most disturbing:
Lithuanian diplomat
BBC News - Ukraine crisis: Lithuania envoy killed in Luhansk
A bit more info here: Lithuanian honorary consul kidnapped and killed in Luhansk - EN.DELFI According to this story, he was kidnapped twelve days ago, but I've never seen any news about that -- perhaps they were keeping it quiet, in hopes of rescuing him?

Oddly, the story hasn't shown up in the American press yet (perhaps they don't know what to make of it, because, according to them, Lugansk was completely taken by Kiev days ago), but there is a statement from State: Death of Mykola Zelenec, Lithuania's Honorary Consul in Luhansk

There is nothing about it I could see on the OSCE's mission in Ukraine twitter feed or daily reports: https://twitter.com/OSCE_SMM

Only this statement from OSCE Vienna: Killing of Mykola Zelenc demonstrates urgent need to stop violent escalation in eastern Ukraine, says Swiss OSCE Permanent Council Chair | OSCE

Goknub · Aug 24, 2014

Considering Lithuania has been one of the most anti-Russian countries in this conflict, including actively countering Russia on the Security Council I think it's more a surprise they thought to maintain this position in the first place.

The rebels are fighting a desperate conflict that's turning against them, they are likely to attack anyone supporting the Ukrainian govt.

gf0012-aust · Aug 24, 2014

Goknub said:
Considering Lithuania has been one of the most anti-Russian countries in this conflict, including actively countering Russia on the Security Council I think it's more a surprise they thought to maintain this position in the first place.

The rebels are fighting a desperate conflict that's turning against them, they are likely to attack anyone supporting the Ukrainian govt.

Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia and Poland have all sought for more permanent NATO forces based in their countries since Russia hijacked Crimea

The Estonians have been warning NATO ever since 2010 that this (Russia and an attempt to reclaim ex Baltic WARPAC countries) was going to happen.

wsb05 · Aug 24, 2014

gf0012-aust said:
Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia and Poland have all sought for more permanent NATO forces based in their countries since Russia hijacked Croatia

The Estonians have been warning NATO ever since 2010 that this (Russia and an attempt to reclaim ex Baltic WARPAC countries) was going to happen.

Croitia?

gf0012-aust · Aug 24, 2014

wsb05 said:
Croitia?

Croatia is considered to be south central europe

baltic countries are those that have shorelines along the Baltic Sea: In alphabetic order:

Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Germany, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Russia, and Sweden.

KiwiRob · Aug 24, 2014

gf0012-aust said:
Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia and Poland have all sought for more permanent NATO forces based in their countries since Russia hijacked Croatia

The Estonians have been warning NATO ever since 2010 that this (Russia and an attempt to reclaim ex Baltic WARPAC countries) was going to happen.

When and what did Russia try to do with Croatia?

Latvia and Estonia have large minorities of Russians, upwards of 26%, mostly urban, if the govts of those two countries continue to make there Russian citizens second class citizens then they are asking for trouble. I don't think Russia itself will get involved but the local Russian population have legitimate issues which will need addressing or there probably will be trouble.

gf0012-aust · Aug 24, 2014

KiwiRob said:
When and what did Russia try to do with Croatia?

Latvia and Estonia have large minorities of Russians, upwards of 26%, mostly urban, if the govts of those two countries continue to make there Russian citizens second class citizens then they are asking for trouble. I don't think Russia itself will get involved but the local Russian population have legitimate issues which will need addressing or there probably will be trouble.

no idea about croatia - I didn't raise it - the OP did

Capt. Ironpants · Aug 24, 2014

Goknub said:
Considering Lithuania has been one of the most anti-Russian countries in this conflict, including actively countering Russia on the Security Council I think it's more a surprise they thought to maintain this position in the first place.

The rebels are fighting a desperate conflict that's turning against them, they are likely to attack anyone supporting the Ukrainian govt.

I thought it quite odd that he would be in Lugansk, and wondered why he was there.

gf0012-aust said:
Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia and Poland have all sought for more permanent NATO forces based in their countries since Russia hijacked Croatia

The Estonians have been warning NATO ever since 2010 that this (Russia and an attempt to reclaim ex Baltic WARPAC countries) was going to happen.

Surely you meant Crimea, not Croatia?

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