Ukranian Crisis

[Feanor]

Update.

Btlns Azov and Shahtersk, of government territorial defense, are fighting on the outskirts of Donetsk.

zloy_odessit -
http://military-informant.com/index...-i-shakhtersk-voshli-na-okrainu-donetska.html

Video of rebels in the field. Location is unclear.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e9YVRHD9qcY

Ukrainian arty positions, including BM-27 Uragan MLRS.

Ð”ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ñ ÐœÐ¾ÐºÑ€ÑƒÑˆÐ¸Ð½ - Применение РСЗО "Ураган"

Shahtersk, which was "taken" by government troops twice already, is still in rebel hands, and government artillery is firing into the city to suppress rebel mortars. Another offensive against Shahtersk is planned.

zloy_odessit -

The top few photos are of destroyed government armor in Shahtersk. In other words fighting there is continuing, but government troops can't seem to take the city.

A journalist claims that in one of the attacks on Shahtersk 200 government troops left, but 50 came back with no official explanation of what happened. Soldiers say that corpses were taken out in Ural trucks.

Вахтенный журнал Ñтареющего пирата - Юго-ВоÑток Украины: война без конца...
Ð”ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ñ ÐœÐ¾ÐºÑ€ÑƒÑˆÐ¸Ð½ - О потерÑÑ… под ШахтерÑком

Meanwhile rebels in Shahtersk claim that some of the National Guard that were in Shahtersk went around people's homes and confiscated WWII medals from old people. They show these medals, that they've recovered from the National Guard.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O8wo5T4PvPk

Another Su-25 shot down by the rebels.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6-Z4qZz7L0E

The rebel JS-3 tank was captured by the government.

 

Video report on 438 Ukrainian soldiers from the 72nd Mech Bde, that have fled to Russia through Gukovo. They were disarmed, fed, and received medical attention. It's unclear whether they have done so on their own initiative, or local commanders organized a humanitarian corridor with Russian officials. There allegedly are more Ukrainian soldiers looking to cross the border into Russia.

The soldiers say they are afraid of being tried as deserters, but don't want to go back to the front. They say they were betrayed by their own command.

It looks like 180 of them are already headed back to Ukraine, taking a round-about route.

Ð”ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ñ ÐœÐ¾ÐºÑ€ÑƒÑˆÐ¸Ð½ - ИÑход
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BrI7OeCbtks
КрыÑа из нержавеющей Ñтали - УкраинÑкие военные объÑÑнили переход на территорию РФ предательÑтвом командованиÑ
Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: ÔÑÁ ðàïîðòóåò î 438 óêðàèíñêèõ âîåííûõ, ïåðåøåäøèõ â Ðîññèþ ñ ïðîñüáîé ïðåäîñòàâèòü óáåæèùå
Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Ãðóïïà âîåííîñëóæàùèõ Óêðàèíû áåæàëà â Ðîññèþ ïîä áåëûìè ôëàãàìè

Photos of surrendered Ukrainian troops in Russia.

http://s7.hostingkartinok.com/uploads/images/2014/08/6900bbc04d88d0ee6d165bca561e5f67.jpg
http://s7.hostingkartinok.com/uploads/images/2014/08/53e7564ee901751e67efbbe7ed796be5.jpg
http://s7.hostingkartinok.com/uploads/images/2014/08/721ea83cd252ab607f685d8677849373.jpg
http://s7.hostingkartinok.com/uploads/images/2014/08/6d3536dd4709ac8339da550c2f13aaba.jpg
http://s7.hostingkartinok.com/uploads/images/2014/08/b6c5422005942462ecbf4f3519020ee1.jpg
http://s7.hostingkartinok.com/uploads/images/2014/08/b72e593c5e50b2ba1aa88b33e61fdcdf.jpg

An interview with captured BM-21 Grad commanders, of the Ukrainian army.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W6fMNm4Z1Dg

It appears that Ukrainian ERA blocks don't have any explosives in them, because the 4S20 and 4S22 components in the ERA are expired.

Gur Khan attacks!:

Ukrainian sources say that every 3rd dead government soldier dies while being transported, wounded.

Блог Ивана ОктÑбрÑ-КолорадÑкого - Ðе знаю, было, не было, но размещу, какелы, чо Ñказать

An MChS flight carrying refugees from Donbass region to the Urals, took off from Sevastopol. There are 11 000 refugees from Ukraine living in Sevastopol.

zloy_odessit -

Violent clashes in Odessa between Right Sector and Svoboda activists, and the police. Apparently it was over a concert of Ani Lorak.

КрыÑа из нержавеющей Ñтали - а в Ñто Ð²Ñ€ÐµÐ¼Ñ Ð² ОдеÑÑе
КрыÑа из нержавеющей Ñтали - Ð¡Ñ‚Ð¾Ð»ÐºÐ½Ð¾Ð²ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ñ Ð² ОдеÑÑе

OSCE observers inside Russia, witnessed an artillery shell fired from the Ukrainian side of the border landing near a Russian border checkpoint.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: ÎÁÑÅ ïîäòâåðäèëà ôàêò îáñòðåëà ðîññèéñêîãî ÊÏÏ â Ðîñòîâñêîé îáëàñòè

Kiev is preparing a list of 500 Russian cultural figures who supported the annexation of Crimea, and will not be allowed into Ukraine.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Â Êèåâå ãîòîâÿò çàïðåò íà âúåçä â ñòðàíó äëÿ 500 ðîññèéñêèõ äåÿòåëåé êóëüòóðû

Ukrainian parliament is passing a war tax, from every person.

 

Ukraine kicks out another RT journalist.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Óêðàèíà âûäâîðèëà èç ñòðàíû åùå îäíîãî æóðíàëèñòà RT

 

[Musashi_kenshin]

400 Ukrainian soldiers deserted to Russiahttp://rt.com/news/177740-ukrainian-military-russia-refuge/

And the Ukrainians have denied that they deserted.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-28637569

I would be surprised if relatively large numbers of Ukrainians were deserting right now. Their morale is likely to be higher than it has been for quite some time, what with the substantial gains being made against the rebels.

 

[Feanor]

And the Ukrainians have denied that they deserted.

BBC News - Many Ukraine soldiers cross into Russia amid shelling

I would be surprised if relatively large numbers of Ukrainians were deserting right now. Their morale is likely to be higher than it has been for quite some time, what with the substantial gains being made against the rebels.

He may have used the wrong term, but the basic facts are still the same. 438 Ukrainian service members have crossed the border to Russia, because they're out of ammo, out of food and water, and most of the equipment is destroyed. They're essentially fleeing to escape certain death.

Given that attitudes that they've been abandoned, that higher command are either traitors or idiots, and that they don't want to fight, are prevalent among front line Ukrainian units, it's really surprising that they've lasted this long. The circumstances they ended up in really were impossible. Personally I'm rather impressed with their fortitude under awful circumstances.

 

[Musashi_kenshin]

He may have used the wrong term, but the basic facts are still the same.

Apparently so. But there is a difference in being out of ammunition and seeking to withdraw, and actively deserting. Also, is this a problem affecting the majority of units, or is it localised? At the moment we don't know.

 

[Feanor]

Apparently so. But there is a difference in being out of ammunition and seeking to withdraw, and actively deserting. Also, is this a problem affecting the majority of units, or is it localised? At the moment we don't know.

This is a problem affecting maneuver element south. It's well known, understood, and has been predicted for some time. Please re-read the thread. You'll see me referring to it many times.

So far it doesn't seem to have affected Ukraine's ability to advance everywhere else. In many ways it was probably smart for them to simply write off their southern maneuver element, and push forward across the front. But the destruction of maneuver element south is certainly going to leave a bad mark. There is also a big question, of just how many rebel forces will be freed up by the destruction or withdrawal (to Russia) of these units.

 

[BlueRose]

This is a problem affecting maneuver element south. It's well known, understood, and has been predicted for some time. Please re-read the thread. You'll see me referring to it many times.

So far it doesn't seem to have affected Ukraine's ability to advance everywhere else. In many ways it was probably smart for them to simply write off their southern maneuver element, and push forward across the front. But the destruction of maneuver element south is certainly going to leave a bad mark. There is also a big question, of just how many rebel forces will be freed up by the destruction or withdrawal (to Russia) of these units.

It would be nice if we had an updated map of the situation now. It seems to me some Ukrainian elements are stretched out from their latest offensive. As you pointed out they are having trouble taking places like Shahtersk and Tightening the siege around Donetsk in general.

 

[Nick underscore]

Just rhetoric at the moment, but It would seem that things are ratcheting up.

Russian Federation threatening the closure of trans-siberian airspace with retaliatory measures being drawn up. Russia eyes ban on EU using trans-Siberian airspace - FT.com

Whatever is being said about the imposed economic sanctions and their impact, this proposed response would confirm that on some levels, it is having its desired effect.

 

[Feanor]

Update.

Ukrainian troops have retreated from Yasunovataya.

military-informant.com/index.php/news/6272-ukrainskie-siloviki-byli-vynuzhdeny-otstupit-iz-otvoevannogo-goroda-yasinovataya.html
https://www.google.com/maps/place/Y...m2!3m1!1s0x40e0866157befe37:0xe06babbb5765d34

A map of the fighting from pro-rebel sources. I would like to note that it's definitely inaccurate in one spot. In the west the government forces are a lot closer to Donetsk then this map shows.

http://img-fotki.yandex.ru/get/6811/27652091.2fa/0_91de7_f06c0295_XL.jpg

First Novorossiya UAV squadron. They proudly show off a commercial UAV sent to them by supporters from France.

bmpd - 1-
Я из гондолы дирижаблÑ... - Дневники 1 ОÐЭ БПЛРВВС ÐовороÑÑии. ЧаÑÑ‚ÑŒ 8. База.
Я из гондолы дирижаблÑ... - Дневники 1 ОÐЭ БПЛРВВС ÐовороÑÑии. ЧаÑÑ‚ÑŒ 7. ПоÑылка из Франции.

The governor of Dnepropetrvosk, and well known (famous/infamous) oligarch, Kolomoyskiy has suggested nationalizing certain Ukrainian companies that were privatized during Yanukovich's reign.

КрыÑа из нержавеющей Ñтали - Грабь награбленное: КоломойÑкий предлагает "национализировать" МТС, КиевÑтар и Укртелеком

Maydan Self-Defense Forces (yes, remembem? it's been a while) burst into a cafe in Kiev, in camouflage and with weapons. The police were called, and one police officer was wounded in the ensuing firefight.

КрыÑа из нержавеющей Ñтали - Ð’ Киеве "Ñамооборона Майдана" уÑтроила Ñтрельбу в кафе. Ранен милиционер

 

[Feanor]

I'd like to let you guys know that something is going on near Transnestria, in Ukraine. Transnestria (Pridnestrov'ye) is an unrecognized republic sandwiched between Moldova and Ukraine. There is a Russian military presence (under international peacekeeping agreements via the CIS).

I'm not sure what is going on, and facts are in short supply, but something is happening around there.

 

[swerve]

He may have used the wrong term, but the basic facts are still the same. 438 Ukrainian service members have crossed the border to Russia, because they're out of ammo, out of food and water, and most of the equipment is destroyed. They're essentially fleeing to escape certain death.

Given that attitudes that they've been abandoned, that higher command are either traitors or idiots, and that they don't want to fight, are prevalent among front line Ukrainian units, it's really surprising that they've lasted this long. The circumstances they ended up in really were impossible. Personally I'm rather impressed with their fortitude under awful circumstances.

The OSCE report describes it from another point of view.

 

[Twain]

Just rhetoric at the moment, but It would seem that things are ratcheting up.

Russian Federation threatening the closure of trans-siberian airspace with retaliatory measures being drawn up. Russia eyes ban on EU using trans-Siberian airspace - FT.com

Whatever is being said about the imposed economic sanctions and their impact, this proposed response would confirm that on some levels, it is having its desired effect.

They aren't happy right now. At least one airline and a few (2-3) travel agencies went bankrupt. They are blaming the rapid weakening of the ruble. Several thousand russian tourists are stranded overseas and a bunch have gotten thrown out of hotel rooms for non payment.

Greece: Thousands of Russians Stranded as Tour Operator Labirint Goes Bust

Russia has threatened to blacklist any hotel that refuses hotel rooms to tourists based on nonpayment.

"However, Russia's Association of Tour Operators of Russia (ATOR) has threatened to name hotels that had "mishandled" the situation. Some tourists were reportedly evicted from hotels, while others were apparently refused entry after Labirint's bankruptcy was announced. ATOR would be adding hotels to a "blacklist", it said."

I'm not sure I would attribute this completely to sanctions just yet, we saw a similar weakening of the ruble back in march when this mess started. I'm sure they play a part but most of it is due to capital flowing out of russia. (selling rubles and buying euros, dollars etc.) Russia's reserves may not last near as long as they claim if this keeps up.

Related: Russia is also raising taxes to cover budget shortfalls. Surprisingly they are apparently raising the sales tax at a time when domestic spending is declining. It's hard to understand the logic of rasing a consumption tax when domestic consumption is declining and you are on the brink of a recession.

https://uk.news.yahoo.com/putins-sales-tax-shows-pain-russias-policy-dilemmas-150826333--business.html#QqAUsMv

 

[Twain]

I'd like to let you guys know that something is going on near Transnestria, in Ukraine. Transnestria (Pridnestrov'ye) is an unrecognized republic sandwiched between Moldova and Ukraine. There is a Russian military presence (under international peacekeeping agreements via the CIS).

I'm not sure what is going on, and facts are in short supply, but something is happening around there.

Moldava called for the removal of russian peacekeepers today. Ukraine has troops near the border and IIRC, they are not allowing any russians to cross the border into transnistria anymore. The rumors I saw were that the russians may get a dose of their own medicine via an "internal revolt".

 

[Nick underscore]

I'd like to let you guys know that something is going on near Transnestria, in Ukraine. Transnestria (Pridnestrov'ye) is an unrecognized republic sandwiched between Moldova and Ukraine. There is a Russian military presence (under international peacekeeping agreements via the CIS).

I'm not sure what is going on, and facts are in short supply, but something is happening around there.

There was mention of the UA using heavy digging equipment (and photos) against the Ukrainian/ Transnestria border a few days back.

Moscow Slams Moldova's Attempts to Push Russian Peacekeepers from Transnistria | World | RIA Novosti

Not sure what to make of this.. Another internal/ border problem would weaken gains made by the UA. What are you hearing to pique your interest?

Moldava called for the removal of russian peacekeepers today. Ukraine has troops near the border and IIRC, they are not allowing any russians to cross the border into transnistria anymore. The rumors I saw were that the russians may get a dose of their own medicine via an "internal revolt".

From the count provided by Feanor a few days back, it would seem to illustrate that the UA are quite stretched at the brigade level (regular).

 

[BlueRose]

I'd like to let you guys know that something is going on near Transnestria, in Ukraine. Transnestria (Pridnestrov'ye) is an unrecognized republic sandwiched between Moldova and Ukraine. There is a Russian military presence (under international peacekeeping agreements via the CIS).

I'm not sure what is going on, and facts are in short supply, but something is happening around there.

Very interesting, They've been releasing more news articles about Transnestria the past few days. (about leaked calls from Transnistria and Ukraine)

Transnistria

 

[Twain]

From the count provided by Feanor a few days back, it would seem to illustrate that the UA are quite stretched at the brigade level (regular).

Yeah I know, but IIRC they sent roughly a brigade to the odessa area a couple of weeks ago. I'm looking for the link now.

 

[Feanor]

Moldava called for the removal of russian peacekeepers today. Ukraine has troops near the border and IIRC, they are not allowing any russians to cross the border into transnistria anymore. The rumors I saw were that the russians may get a dose of their own medicine via an "internal revolt".

I hope not, though I've heard those rumors too. That would not be the right direction to go. Especially not as the war in the east, which looked like it was basically won, is now more uncertain. Losing Transnestria would, materially, be a pinprick to Russia. But it would certainly escalate the current conflict considerably.

 

[ASSAIL]

I hope not, though I've heard those rumors too. That would not be the right direction to go. Especially not as the war in the east, which looked like it was basically won, is now more uncertain. Losing Transnestria would, materially, be a pinprick to Russia. But it would certainly escalate the current conflict considerably.

Feanor, I don't usually enter these conversations for lack of expertise but I saw a graph on TV which showed Putin's popularity within Russia. It had been steadily declining until Ukraine but since his actions it has rocketed upwards to his most popular ever.

This then must be a particularly difficult conundrum for him to solve, back down and lose internal support or continue and be the "Man". How does he resolve this? Does he want to resolve this? How long can he let it run before it turns to custard?

Would appreciate your thoughts or other contributions.
Cheers
Chris

 

[Twain]

I hope not, though I've heard those rumors too. That would not be the right direction to go. Especially not as the war in the east, which looked like it was basically won, is now more uncertain. Losing Transnestria would, materially, be a pinprick to Russia. But it would certainly escalate the current conflict considerably.

Who knows what will happen, it may just be rumors but I don't think this would be about materially damaging russia, It's mopre about Moldova regaining control of transistria and secondly, "sticking their thumb in russia's eye". If it does happen, I doubt Ukraine will do much more than send in some "little green men" and seal the border. Moldova most likely will be the instigator IMO.

Ukranian view of Transnistria

"The State Border Guard Service of Ukraine states [the following fact]: Russia conducts aerial reconnaissance using military aircraft and drones from the territories of Crimea and Transnistria.
Crimea is a no-brainer–it is an occupied area, and the Russians in that territory are the occupiers. But we must clearly make up our mind regarding Transnistria. For a long time, Ukraine has actively participated in resolving the “Transnistrian issue.” Kyiv has always considered, and continues to view Transnistria as a territory of Moldova, but it has always advocated that this issue be resolved purely by political means.
I think it’s [high] time we recognized that Transnistria is a formation that is hostile towards our state, being a territory from which Russia carries out actions against Ukraine (we must remember that in March 2014, before the border was blocked, this was exactly from where crowds of subversives crept into Ukraine). This is the Kremlin’s springboard for acting against our state.
In the future, Ukraine must make every effort to restore Moldova’s control over this territory. Without this [control], Transnistria is like a Russian landmine near Ukraine, biding its time until it blows."

https://www.facebook.com/dmitry.tymchuk/posts/536113146517345

Especially not as the war in the east, which looked like it was basically won, is now more uncertain.

The ukranian army has some serious supply issues right now.


Dmitry Tymchuk

"Frankly, the last few months we have heard a million reasons why a budget of billions allocated for the ATO, the accounts are not moving, as well as a substantial part of charitable collections. And at this time, we only see a lack in divisions one and then another, then a third."

https://www.facebook.com/dmitry.tymchuk/posts/538670506261609

That's just in purchasing, they also appear to be having trouble getting supplies they do have to the front. They apparently have enough troops as they appear to have about 50-60k in uniform right now and are enlisting 40-50k more. One good sign is that they are now taking volunteers into the national guard. Previously they were turned away and sent to the volunteer(independent) battalions. Hopefully they will start exerting greater control over these militias now.

Edit: Tymchuk's posts are excellent reading.

https://twitter.com/DmitryTymchuk


http://sprotyv.info/en

 

[Twain]

I hope not, though I've heard those rumors too. That would not be the right direction to go. Especially not as the war in the east, which looked like it was basically won, is now more uncertain. Losing Transnestria would, materially, be a pinprick to Russia. But it would certainly escalate the current conflict considerably.

https://twitter.com/GorseFires/status/496960233085079552

location was identified as Tartarbunary, Odessa Oblast

https://www.google.com/maps/place/Tatarbunary,+Odessa+Oblast,+Ukraine/@45.8409776,29.611802,13z/data=!3m1!4b1!4m2!3m1!1s0x40b7f7c08fb2513f:0x8589c6aea9817c15?hl=en

 

[Feanor]

Twain that's the new Marines Brigade they declared they were forming, after losing Crimea. I posted a link to the new equipment they intend to use in the earlier part of this thread. The whole set of photos can be seen here.

urb_a: