Ukranian Crisis

[wittmanace]

With the warning, I don't really want to stray into politics. I'm not sure where the line is, so would rather err on the side of caution.

What miulitary delas would this round of sanctions put at risk? I gather mistral one and two are not at risk, and that cnn mentioned that there is one defence company in the US affected? It didnt mention it or what it does really though...

 

[Feanor]

I understand and I think it is a long shot, but then again, I never thought this mess would drag out this long either or that russia would intervene to this degree unless they launched an actual invasion. Basically, Putin has the worst of both worlds. Everyone knows he is intervening and supplying weapons, but the still isn't winning the war.

I think this summs it up. Frankly the rebels have made a very weak showing. They just don't have the numbers. Strelkov bought a spectacular amount of time, with the defense of Slavyansk and Kramatorsk, but the rebels made very poor use of that time.

Rumors keep circulating that any minute the rebels are going to counter-attack, but except for the obvious and simple move at Saur-Mogila, they haven't done much.

Yeah that's true, but the problem is almost everything Putin is doing is driving the Ukranians further into the EU/Nato sphere of influence and further from russia, even in eastern ukraine. He's sending in just enough weapons and mercenaries to prolong the fight but not win it (at least at this stage) At the same time, the nature of the troops he is sending in are actually serving to push even the people who were pro russian at the start of the conflict further away. (in short, he sent in undisciplined troops who essentially destroyed/prevented basic services from occurring) Overall his actions have on the whole been very detrimental to those goals. So what is his desired end state because it looks as if even a neutral Ukraine is unlikely at this stage.

Well that's just it, they're not troops. Which in many ways determines their nature. The thing is though that destruction of basic services is occurring not only due to rebel action, in fact primarily not due to rebel action. Government troops are dealing most, almost all, of the collateral damage. It's very hard to estimate public support for the rebels at this point. I've heard reports of every kind, and I'm not sure who to believe. The reliable sources all say it's very complicated, and people are different and of course very unhappy about the whole situation. Which doesn't clarify much.

The pro-Russia side, or rather the anti-Maydan, was not really behind this rebellion at any point. Only in two places did the anti-Maydan (some part of it) turn into the rebels: Donetsk and Lugansk. Everywhere else the anti-Maydan self-liquidated once the rebellion began. Mairupol' was an exception where the anti-Maydan did attempt to join the rebels, but didn't really succeed. It was too small and weak. As I've said this whole time, the anti-Maydan are not really separatists, they never were. That was a label applied by the Kiev government who claimed that their use of Russian flags amounted to separatism.

 

[Feanor]

Update.

Another video of destruction, in the 72nd Mech Bde, in maneuver element south.

[nomedia="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p0VnhuA6f4M"]Зеленополье / Выжившие Ñолдаты 72-й бригады на разбитом блок поÑту - YouTube[/nomedia]

Ukrainian troops near Gorlovka.

Ð“Ð°Ð»ÐµÑ€ÐµÑ Ð²Ð¾ÐµÐ½Ð½Ð¾Ð¹ фотографии - No comment
http://www.militaryphotos.net/forums/attachment.php?attachmentid=222810&d=1406582204

Kiev forces have taken the village of Stepanovka.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Êèåâ îáúÿâèë î âçÿòèè ïîä êîíòðîëü äîíåöêîãî ñåëà Ñòåïàíîâêà, ïðåäñòàâèòåëè ÄÍÐ - î ïîãèáøèõ ïîä íèì íàåìíèêàõ "íåãðîèäíîé ðàñû"

More destroyed Ukrainian armor. Maneuver element south. The last link is the location of the town near which this is.

Вблизи ЛуганÑка было разбито одно из подразделений украинÑкой армии, уÑиленное бронетехникой
[nomedia="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3NHGjPsn39M"]ЛуганÑк 24. Ð Ð°Ð·Ð±Ð¸Ñ‚Ð°Ñ Ð¿Ð¾Ð´ СвердловÑком украинÑÐºÐ°Ñ Ñ‚ÐµÑ…Ð½Ð¸ÐºÐ°. 27 Ð¸ÑŽÐ»Ñ 2014 г. - YouTube[/nomedia]
https://www.google.com/maps/place/S...2!3m1!1s0x40e1e799fc341099:0xd058c3b646f5082e

Ukraine is using Tochka-U missiles in the east. Supposedly they were used against rebel positions at Saur-Mogila. None the less the rebels still hold those heights.

bmpd -
 

The 79th Airmobile Bde has had 54 desertions since March. So nowhere near 40%, or even 10%.

КрыÑа из нержавеющей Ñтали - Из 79-й ÐиколаевÑкой бригады дезертировали 54 военноÑлужащих

Another home-made armored vehicle for territorial defense btln 11, Kievan Rus.

bmpd -
Andrei-bt -

Streit Group armored vehicles, assembled at the KrAZ plant, for the National Guard.

Бронеавтомобиль КрÐЗ - Streit Group Спартан

Ukrainian government says that nobody will sell them any aircraft of UAVs.

Украине отказывают в возможной продаже военных Ñамолетов

Kevlar helmets and body armor were detained at the Polish-Ukrainian border, due to restrictions on supplying arms to Ukraine. However it looks like they'll be getting delivered anyways.

Ðа границе Польши задержано большое количеÑтво Ñкипировки предназначенной Ð´Ð»Ñ ÑƒÐºÑ€Ð°Ð¸Ð½Ñкой армии

Orshanskiy helo-repair plant in Ukraine, plans to produce Mi-8MSVB helicopters for the Ukrainian military. This would certainly be a copyright violation, but Ukraine has never been terribly concerned with those details. The real question is whether they can actually do it.

ОршанÑкий авиаремонтный завод намерен начать Ñерийное производÑтво вертолетов Ми-8 МСБВ

Btln Aydar's technical. Reminder, Aydar is a pro-Kiev "territorial defense" btln.

Вахтенный журнал Ñтареющего пирата - "Ехали мы Ñ Ð±Ð°Ñ‚ÑŒÐºÐ¾ÑŽ на бричке..." (Ñ)

L'vov armor repair plant is producing the Dozor-B armored cars, and is repairing a number of older Soviet vehicles.

Gur Khan attacks!:

More Russian restrictions on imports of agricultural produce from Ukraine.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Íè äíÿ áåç çàïðåòîâ: Ðîññåëüõîçíàäçîð ìîæåò îñòàèòü ââîç ñ Óêðàèíû ïîäñîëíå÷íèêà è ñîè

Kadyrov, head of the Russian Chechen Republic pledged 7.5 million USD for rebuilding eastern Ukraine. Right after the US of A promised 7 million.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Êàäûðîâ ïåðåäàñò "ðóêîâîäñòâó" âîñòî÷íîé Óêðàèíû 7,5 ìëí äîëëàðîâ äëÿ ïîìîùè æèòåëÿì ðåãèîíà
Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Ñîåäèíåííûå Øòàòû âûäåëÿò Óêðàèíå 7 ìëí äîëëàðîâ äëÿ âîññòàíîâëåíèÿ âîñòîêà ñòðàíû

OSCE says that Right Sector activists are blockading Lukoil gas stations in Ukraine, demanding that Lukoil provide free gas for Ukrainian military operations.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: ÎÁÑÅ: íàöèîíàëèñòû èç "Ïðàâîãî ñåêòîðà" áëîêèðîâàëè ðàáîòó ÀÇÑ "Ëóêîéëà" â Èâàíî-Ôðàíêîâñêå
 

Ukrainian Naftogaz wants to re-negotiate the transit contract with Gazprom.

КрыÑа из нержавеющей Ñтали - Украина потребовала от «Газпрома» переÑмотреть транзитный контракт
 

 

[Twain]

Well that's just it, they're not troops. Which in many ways determines their nature. The thing is though that destruction of basic services is occurring not only due to rebel action, in fact primarily not due to rebel action. Government troops are dealing most, almost all, of the collateral damage. It's very hard to estimate public support for the rebels at this point. I've heard reports of every kind, and I'm not sure who to believe. The reliable sources all say it's very complicated, and people are different and of course very unhappy about the whole situation. Which doesn't clarify much.

I wasn't referring to the collateral damage though that is an issue too. The problem early on, before any attacks on Donetsk or Luhansk, was that the separatists went in and displaced the city governments. This may not seem like much, but these people are the ones that know how to keep the water flowing, sewage draining and most visibly, the police on the streets. The Ukranian police force wasn't worth much but they at least kept a lid on things. Once they were gone, looting became rampant, robberies and theft got completely out of control.

 

[Feanor]

I wasn't referring to the collateral damage though that is an issue too. The problem early on, before any attacks on Donetsk or Luhansk, was that the separatists went in and displaced the city governments. This may not seem like much, but these people are the ones that know how to keep the water flowing, sewage draining and most visibly, the police on the streets. The Ukranian police force wasn't worth much but they at least kept a lid on things. Once they were gone, looting became rampant, robberies and theft got completely out of control.

This was true in a few places, but in most places the rebels either allowed the police to continue operating, or stepped in themselves. Most city governments were never removed at all. The rebels would show up, change the flag on the administration building, make sure the local police is willing to "cooperate" (i.e. not fight them) and leave it at that. Generally the rebel "control" really amounted to little more then flag waving.

 

[Twain]

This was true in a few places, but in most places the rebels either allowed the police to continue operating, or stepped in themselves. Most city governments were never removed at all. The rebels would show up, change the flag on the administration building, make sure the local police is willing to "cooperate" (i.e. not fight them) and leave it at that. Generally the rebel "control" really amounted to little more then flag waving.

Well I am sure that happened in some places, but some were/still are very bad. Donetsk being a prime example and luhansk not being much better. It's been widely documented that pretty much all law and order broke down in Donetsk with widespread looting, robberies etc. In luhansk the residents constantly complained that when the separatists/mercenaries got paid, they stayed drunk until their money ran out, then they resorted to stealing booze and robbing people to get money. In Donetsk, when Boroday took over the headquarters, reporters got to go through the headquarters building and it was full of looted goods. Donetsk was out of control and people who had guns routinely took whatever they wanted from the people who didn't.

 

[Farbanks]

Feanor: (or anyone else who might have insight into this)

What is Putin's desired end state here? Right now his actions make no sense at all. It appears that russia is sending just enough support in wepons and manpower to barely keep the separatists alive, yet at the same time he has sacrificed any chance at plausible deniability by shelling ukranian army positions. Unless he decides to invade ukraine with russian troops instead of the "ex military" he is currently using, it appears that the separatists are going to lose in the coming weeks. So what is his goal here? Prolonging the situation as he is currently doing may punish Ukraine, but it is also causing more and more sanctions to be applied to russia which is going to hurt the russian economy.

Outright invasion would result in russia not only being completely isolated, but possibly outright US or nato intervention. Declaring the annexataion of DNR and LNR would be a laughed at without direct russian military intervention.


Related to these questions is this article. In general the author suggests that Poroshenko, by launching the offensive against the separatists has seized both the political and military advantage and left Putin in a difficult situation with few good options.

The Changing Equation of Escalation
Kiev, not the Kremlin, is now writing the political narrative of the region

I think that to explain it, we have to go back a few moths. Putin never wanted any euro-maiden in ukraine. He was quite satisfied with Yanukovych in as the head of Ukraine, until he (Yanukovych) started to think that he can play this game with EU trade agreement.

Now this is my personal opinion : For Russia it is essential to control whole Ukraine. It is not a matter of nationality or historical bonds not even economy, but of national security and in long term it is matter of survival of Russian Federation. Russia has no natural borderline with europe, so historical goal of ANY russian state (ince 16th century at least), was to move border as far west as possible. This depth of teritory saved them from Napoleon and Hitler, but without ukraine it no longer exists. Ukraine is simply too far east and Russia in long term can not tolerate pro-european or pro-western ukraine by any means. For Kremlin, "Russian sphere of influence" is not just a wish or political promise, but real geopolitical goal, one they are willing to fight for. To achieve this goal, they need to control (wathever it means) at least teritory of former CCCP whitch means Belarus, Ukraine and Baltic republics.

So with this strategy in mind, Putin prevented Yanukovych from signing that trade agreement. It effectively broke his will to oppose him and he agreed to sign partnership with Russia instead, which was exactly what Putin wanted. Then euro-maidan happend and Yanukovych blow Putin`s plans to space by escalating the situation and allowing the protesters to gather enough power and support to remove him from presidental chair.

What happend in Crimea, from Putin`s point of view, was desperate attempt to secure at least some strategicaly important bases in Ukraine. He probably also hoped that this would scare and destabilize new goverment and they will seek some sort of agreement with Russia. Instead he gave them the common enemy they could focus on. His support of rebels in the east may have been another try to destabilize current goverment and allowing someone more pro-russian to take Poroshenko`s place. And it again doesn`t worked out.

So now, as the Twain sugested, he is stuck in this awkward situation with no good options left. He may try to reinforce rebels enough to take major counter-attack in hope that Poroshenko will agree to some sort of treaty (which will ofc favor russia). But that is unlikely in my opinion. For now he is trying to do so with economical presure. So I gues this can (unfortunately for all ukraininas in the east) drag on for a quite long time.

P.S. Feanor thanks for your updates!

 

[Twain]

Could you also comfirm any news on Borodai (DNR)?

"Twilight zone. The day after I leave Donetsk, I run into rebel leader Borodai in Moscow outside Vogue Cafe."

https://twitter.com/PaulSonne/status/494530514645446656

 

[Nick underscore]

"Twilight zone. The day after I leave Donetsk, I run into rebel leader Borodai in Moscow outside Vogue Cafe."

https://twitter.com/PaulSonne/status/494530514645446656

Cheers Twain - I heard the rumours a few days back when asked. Borodai, sooner or later, will not be able to leave the safety of the Russian Federation.

EDIT; Today, Rada voted 324 in favour for Dutch-Aust investigation team, with access to the site intiated today. Rada also turned down Yatsenyuk's resignation from last week. Rada also approved an increase in defence spending relating to ATO - $1.3b US..
http://en.itar-tass.com/world/743074
http://en.apa.az/xeber_ukraine_s_parliament_votes_against_pm_ya_214612.html

Seperatley, there are early unconfirmed statements from both DNR intelligence (Strelkov) and UA border guards, that chemical weapons maybe in use?

It has been noted that the known Russian build up of military ground forces on the border, have been spotted on numerous occasions and with more frequency over the last two weeks with identifying MC/ MS markings and designations (i.e. Russian Peacekeeping forces).. Prelude to next move?

 

[Relboon]

Well I am sure that happened in some places, but some were/still are very bad. Donetsk being a prime example and luhansk not being much better. It's been widely documented that pretty much all law and order broke down in Donetsk with widespread looting, robberies etc. In luhansk the residents constantly complained that when the separatists/mercenaries got paid, they stayed drunk until their money ran out, then they resorted to stealing booze and robbing people to get money. In Donetsk, when Boroday took over the headquarters, reporters got to go through the headquarters building and it was full of looted goods. Donetsk was out of control and people who had guns routinely took whatever they wanted from the people who didn't.

Where are you taking this information from ?
Show some proof please ? And NOT from UA "news" agencies please, those discredited themselves long time ago.

 

[Twain]

Seperatley, there are early unconfirmed statements from both DNR intelligence (Strelkov) and UA border guards, that chemical weapons maybe in use?

Both sides are making chemical weapons claims. Right now several chemical plants are in the line of fire and shelling of these plants could be disastrous for anyone in the area. UA is claiming that Bezler's troops in Gorlivka placed explosives in one chemical plant and threatened to blow it up if they try to take the city. There is a bit of a scorched earth policy going on in the DNR right now. Just a wild guess, but both sides may be trying to prepare to place blame if any of these plants explodes.

Related: Has anyone been able to verify Bezler's location? Rumors are that he is in moscow too.

It has been noted that the known Russian build up of military ground forces on the border, have been spotted on numerous occasions and with more frequency over the last two weeks with identifying MC/ MS markings and designations (i.e. Russian Peacekeeping forces).. Prelude to next move?

I've seen those too. Not sure what to think about those but there are increasing reports of active duty Russian military operationg in Ukraine.


Does This Soldier’s Instagram Account Prove Russia Is Covertly Operating In Ukraine?

Related: Russia is moving to ban active duty troops from using social media

Today, Rada voted 324 in favour for Dutch-Aust investigation team, with access to the site intiated today. Rada also turned down Yatsenyuk's resignation from last week. Rada also approved an increase in defence spending relating to ATO - $1.3b US..

Quite possibly due to IMF pressure since his tax proposals are necessary to get any more funds released from the IMF. Either way he may now be the most powerful politicain in Ukraine, I expect a bit of a power struggle between him and Poroshenko.

I haven't got the links right now but it appears there is heavy fighting near Shakhtarsk. Luhansk may get surrounded before Donetsk gets surrounded. No water in Luhansk and most of the city is without electricity, things are really bad there.

On a lighter note, Strelkov banned foul language among his troops, my guess many of them are now speechless

 

[Feanor]

Update.

The offensive against Donetsk is continuing, heavy fighting continues between Shahtersk, and Torez, and government troops are still trying to surround Gorlovka.

Силы ÐТО активизировали наÑтупление на Донецк

Fighting also seems to be going on in the center of Shahtersk, a government BMD-2 was annihilated, along with the occupants (reportedly 5 or 6 inside, and as many on top of it) hit by a shell from a tank. The second link has a few photos out of Shahtersk, but the info provided is obvious garbage.

Ð’ центре ШахтерÑка танк Ð¾Ð¿Ð¾Ð»Ñ‡ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ñ ÑƒÐ½Ð¸Ñ‡Ñ‚Ð¾Ð¶Ð¸Ð» БМД ВС Украины Ñ Ñкипажем
зри в корень - ШахтерÑк, как Ñто было, Ð¸Ð½Ñ„Ð¾Ñ€Ð¼Ð°Ñ†Ð¸Ñ Ð¾Ñ‚Ñ‚ÑƒÐ´Ð°

Government troops are approaching Makeevka.

КрыÑа из нержавеющей Ñтали - Силы ÐТО приблизилиÑÑŒ к Макеевке

Heavy fighting continues in Pervomaysk.

zloy_odessit -

A video out of Pervomaysk, shot by the rebels. It mostly shows battle damage, and gives you a look at the equipment of the rebels.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uZkJP-fJwCQ

Another T-64BM Bulat destroyed at an unknown location.

bmpd -

1st Tank BDe enters Lutugino.

zloy_odessit -

A nice overview of the Ukrainian war effort. The basics of it are as follows: out of 4 Air Mobile, 2 Tank, 8 Mech, 3 Artillery, and 1 Rocket, Brigades, currently fighting in the east are: 1 Tank, 7 Mech, 4 Airmobile, 1 Rocket, and 1 Artillery.

The Armored Repair Plants (ARZs) from the Soviet era are back up and running, overhauling equipment pulled out of storage, and repairing battle damage, quite effectively. While production of new equipment may be problematic, there doesn't seem to be many problems getting the old stuff up and running.

There have been many claims of espionage, but no info on arrests.

The Ukrainian Army has a total advantage in heavy equipment and numbers, but lacks good infantry units for close combat. Ukrainian air power has been ineffective, bordering on useless.

The rising defense spendings, bad financial situation, mobilization of additional people, are all straining the ability of Ukraine to wage war. If the war lasts a few more months, things will start to look quite bleak. Draft dodging is becoming more wide-spread, and there is some discontent over duration the war in the west of Ukraine.

СоÑтоÑние армии Украины - РуÑÑÐºÐ°Ñ Ð¿Ð»Ð°Ð½ÐµÑ‚Ð°

Ukrainian National Guard is buying 29 Kamaz trucks, from a Kamaz dealer in Ukraine.

bmpd -
ÐÐ°Ñ†Ð¸Ð¾Ð½Ð°Ð»ÑŒÐ½Ð°Ñ Ð“Ð²Ð°Ñ€Ð´Ð¸Ñ Ð£ÐºÑ€Ð°Ð¸Ð½Ñ‹ решила закупать КÐÐœÐЗы

Russian GAZ group is providing parts for Ukrainian tanks. Sales have gone up recently.

ПредприÑтие "Группы ГÐЗ" Олега ДерипаÑки увеличило поÑтавки комплектующих Ð´Ð»Ñ ÑƒÐºÑ€Ð°Ð¸Ð½Ñких танков

Btln Azov is getting KPV machineguns on old wheel carriages.

Батальон «Ðзов» получил на вооружение музейный ÑкземплÑÑ€ крупнокалиберного пулемета

Ukrainian KrAZ maybe in some financial problems, facing bankruptcy.

Под угрозой работа КрÐЗа, а фактичеÑки вÑей обороноÑпоÑобноÑти Украины

The first MiG-29s returned from Bel'bek, Crimea, have been repaired.

bmpd -
ВоÑÑтановлен первый МиГ-29 СеваÑтопольÑкой бригады тактичеÑкой авиации ВС Украины

Russia says their investigators on the Ukrainian border are being fired at, systematically, when they try to investigate instances of shelling from Ukraine. Instances of shelling are still occurring.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Áàñòðûêèí: ðîññèéñêèå ñëåäîâàòåëè íà ãðàíèöå ñ Óêðàèíîé ïîäâåðãàþòñÿ öåëåíàïðàâëåííîìó îáñòðåëó
Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com ::  Ðîñòîâñêîé îáëàñòè, ãäå íàáëþäàòåëè ÎÁÑÅ èçó÷àþò ñèòóàöèþ íà ãðàíèöå ñ Óêðàèíîé, ñíîâà âçðûâàþòñÿ ñíàðÿäû

More restrictions on imports of food from Ukraine to Russia.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Íîâûå ïðåòåíçèè ÐÔ ê Óêðàèíå: ñîê, ëóê è ïòèöà

Pro-rebel sources say that Bezler has left Gorlovka.

Блог Ивана ОктÑбрÑ-КолорадÑкого - Мне не верите, Полковнику верите?

Ukraine is talking about not paying Yanukovich era debts to Russia.

КрыÑа из неѰвеющей Ñтали - Кредит РоÑÑии правительÑтву Януковича могут признать «одиозным долгом»

Norway is looking to join sanctions against Russia.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Íîðâåãèÿ ñîáèðàåòñÿ ïðèñîåäèíèòüñÿ ê ýêîíîìè÷åñêèì ñàíêöèÿì ïðîòèâ Ðîññèè

US and EU have laid down sector sanctions that could cost the federal budget a third of it's revenue. Potentially.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Ñàìûå æåñòêèå ñî âðåìåí õîëîäíîé âîéíû: ñîãëàñîâàííûå ÅÑ è ÑØÀ ñàíêöèè ìîãóò ñòîèòü Ðîññèè òðåòè ãîäîâîãî áþäæåòà

Predictably, however, the Mistrals are not covered by the sanctions.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: "Ìèñòðàëè" íå ïîïàäóò ïîä äåéñòâèå ñàíêöèé àâòîìàòè÷åñêè, íî Ôðàíöèÿ âïðàâå îòêàçàòü â ïîñòàâêå, ñîîáùèë èñòî÷íèê â ÅÑ

The FMS says that 50 000 Ukrainians now have requested refugee status in Russia, and they expect the number to go to 100 000. Total numbers who've fled to Russia stand at 730 000. 19 000 have received residence status, 12 000 have opted to participate in the repatriation program Russia has, meaning they intend to remain in Russia.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: ÔÌÑ: Îêîëî 50 òûñ. ãðàæäàí Óêðàèíû ïîïðîñèëè óáåæèùà â Ðîññèè, îæèäàåòñÿ áîëåå 100 òûñÿ÷

 

[Feanor]

Well I am sure that happened in some places, but some were/still are very bad. Donetsk being a prime example and luhansk not being much better. It's been widely documented that pretty much all law and order broke down in Donetsk with widespread looting, robberies etc. In luhansk the residents constantly complained that when the separatists/mercenaries got paid, they stayed drunk until their money ran out, then they resorted to stealing booze and robbing people to get money. In Donetsk, when Boroday took over the headquarters, reporters got to go through the headquarters building and it was full of looted goods. Donetsk was out of control and people who had guns routinely took whatever they wanted from the people who didn't.

You're conflating. Looting did break out in Donetsk initially, in many ways because a lot of crime groups joined the rebels. But for the most part rebel held areas left the police alone. Rebels, being undisciplined and unprofessional, certainly did not behave well, but measures were taken quite decisively aimed at curbing said behavior. The situation isn't good, but it's not out of control.

That having been said law and order is one thing. Basic services is another. Keeping the sewers from backing up, and the electricity from going out hasn't been a problem, until government troops show up and start shelling anything and everything. In Slavyansk for example power went out when government troops damaged the substation with arty. Water went out when government troops started shooting at city employees trying to repair the water lines. It wasn't intentional, it was more of a "shoot anything that moves in that area" type of thing.

Related: Has anyone been able to verify Bezler's location? Rumors are that he is in moscow too.

He's left Gorlovka. Where to? Unclear.

I've seen those too. Not sure what to think about those but there are increasing reports of active duty Russian military operationg in Ukraine.

Eh. On the one hand it's worrying, on the other hand those markings were sighted as far back as iirc April.

Quite possibly due to IMF pressure since his tax proposals are necessary to get any more funds released from the IMF. Either way he may now be the most powerful politicain in Ukraine, I expect a bit of a power struggle between him and Poroshenko.

Unfortunately.

I haven't got the links right now but it appears there is heavy fighting near Shakhtarsk. Luhansk may get surrounded before Donetsk gets surrounded. No water in Luhansk and most of the city is without electricity, things are really bad there.

Lugansk was surrounded, at least briefly, but it's unclear now. Rebels seem to still be able to enter and leave the city, with troops and supplies.

 

[Twain]

Where are you taking this information from ?
Show some proof please ? And NOT from UA "news" agencies please, those discredited themselves long time ago.

Strelkov has mentioned the problems in donetsk at least once, a quick google search will give you lots of links

 

[Relboon]

Strelkov has mentioned the problems in donetsk at least once, a quick google search will give you lots of links

No, this will not work. You make claims without any base, no don`t provide any kind of source that can be trusted, you just say what you want to believe.
Strelok once showed what happens to looters and marauders, they get shot or being sent to dig the trenches on the front lines.

 

[KiwiRob]

Update.

Norway is looking to join sanctions against Russia.

Norway has a lot to lose if they join the sanctions, there are enough large companies here with a lot of political capital who will be trying there damdest to sway the govt in the other direction. I personally hope Norway uses it's head and decides not to follow the knee jerk reaction from the EU and US.

Sanctions will cause a lot of pain to some industries in Norway.

This article is worth reading

Russian sanctions squeeze Norway

 

[Musashi_kenshin]

I personally hope that Norway puts principle before profit and joins in on the sanctions. It would be good for European solidarity, not to mention NATO solidarity as well.

 

[John Fedup]

I personally hope that Norway puts principle before profit and joins in on the sanctions. It would be good for European solidarity, not to mention NATO solidarity as well.

Bombardier had a proposal for a Q400 production line in Russia. I have not heard much about it lately but assume it is on hold given the Harper govt's strong anti-Russian stance over the Ukraine situation. If not, then any criticism of France's Mistral by Canada sale is absolute hypocrisy.

 

[BlueRose]

Can anyone confirm what type of Drone the Rebels are showing out in this field?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n7ZkuNO1Q_Q

Igor Strelkov claims the Ukrainians are going to launch a Missile attack on a Water Treatment Facility. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P2iMG_Cjn3c

It also has been reported that Igor Stelkov claimed to have "Killed members belonging to the Negroid Race".. If that's the case, does this solidify claims that Academy and other Mercenary organizations are active on the front.

Who Is Igor Strelkov? Russians Love Reenactor Turned Rebel Commander Who Delivered Bizarre, Racist Press Conference

 

[Blackshoe]

It also has been reported that Igor Stelkov claimed to have "Killed members belonging to the Negroid Race".. If that's the case, does this solidify claims that Academy and other Mercenary organizations are active on the front.

Who Is Igor Strelkov? Russians Love Reenactor Turned Rebel Commander Who Delivered Bizarre, Racist Press Conference

It might go further to solidying what happened to the 9 Nigerian student the rebels were supposed to have kidnapped.