I'm not convinced NZ is going to have too many choices for either the transport or the maritime patrol roles.
The C-17 production line closes next year.
The P-8 production line is scheduled to close in 2019. There aren't huge prospects for an export order that will keep the line open for long after that.
The P3K2 aren't scheduled to be retired until approximatley 2025. The Hercules and Boeing fleets are scheduled for retirement between 2018 and 2025.
My short term focus would be to address the short/medium range surveillance and transport gap. The C-295 seems to be the best option around for that space, and I'd be looking for half a dozen airframes, and having the missions systems as modular as possible. I would expect that introducing something like this into service would reduce the workload on the P-3s to push out the fleet life another couple of years, and potentially buy some time for the C-130s too.
In the mean time, we get to see which way the chips fall with both the P-8 and a MPA version of the A400 and make a call then. I'd prefer to replace both the P-3s and Hercs with A400s on a 1 for 1 basis, but there is some developmental risk with a A400 variant and I'd prefer someone else takes it on first.
A bit of a quibble, but the P-8 Poseidon production line is the same line Boeing is using to build B737 NG's, and AFAIK Boeing has no plans to stop construction of them anytime soon. Where the P-8 is a little different is that the wings used are from the B737-900, with some hardpoints added, a bomb bay, and windowless fuselage.
Once the airframe itself has been assembled, Boeing takes the airframe to another location in the plant to fit the required mission systems.
That suggests that once P-8 production ends, it should not be particularly difficult to restart product, when compared to a production line which has been completely closed.
Honestly, I would not count C-130J's out for a Kiwi replacement. A very great deal is going to centre on what percentage of airlift missions are required for different distances, and require either more cargo capacity, volume, or range than the C-130 can provide. By the same token, it might well turn out that the primary airlift mission profile is only for perhaps 1-2 pallets, in which case something like the C-130 might be overkill and the C-295 or C-27J would be more appropriate.
What I suspect is that 3-5 A400M's would be appropriate for the longer-ranged lift missions, and/or outsized/heavy cargoes. That I do not feel would be common missions, but occur often enough for the NZDF to find the capability useful. I feel that most of the missions are going to be more along the lines of a tactical airlifter, i.e. moving a few pallets 5,000 - 10,000 kg and much of those missions could be done by a C-295 or C-27J. If that is the case, then perhaps 5-8 such aircraft might be in order. IMO the RNZAF should drop the civilian airliner capability. I can go over why again, but I have mentioned this previously earlier in this thread and the NZDF thread IIRC.
I would like to see the RNZAF get a 2nd tier MPA, both to ease the burdens of the P-3K2 and provide additional capabilities. As NG mentioned quoting Stalin, quantity is a quality all its own. Four P-8's should provide a considerable capability to the NZDF, above what the P-3K2 can do (ignore the altitude pun...) but with less aircraft, there will likely be less availability for mission tasking. This is actually where some of the BAMS UAV develops are supposed to come into play, to provide a wide area ISR resource so that the more limited manned assets can be concentrated on areas of interest. With the significant cost for some of the more capable UAS, a 2nd tier MPA would likely be a better route for NZ to take. Especially if there is some commonality between the airframe of the 2nd tier MPA and either the tactical or strategic airlifter.
-Cheers
