Ukranian Crisis

[Twain]

That is another brilliant example of integrity. How about the facts that
There have been reports of torture & murder of those openly opposing the junta in Kiev?

Do you also think that population experiencing life and death under "government" bombs and artillery shells really do not develop any thoughts about legitimacy of this "government"?

Devolving this discussion into little more than "he said, she said" does nothing to further the discussion. There have been abuses on both sides in this conflict and neither side has much moral high ground to stand on.

Can we get back to discussing actual events and ramifications rather than a pissing match to prove who is more evil? If you are going to talk about the tactics used by the kiev government, how about something more than "torture, murder blah blah blah". What does that mean in terms of the future of the war and the future of Ukraine?

 

[gf0012-aust]

Closed pending Mod discussion.

Universal comment

Give it a rest on plugging your favourite side - as has been said, there is a lack of glory and integrity on both sides

The rebels however don't cover themselves in any glory when they abuse and threaten international staff trying to deal with events like MH17

Some recent comments will be up for editing - so don't expect much sympathy from the Mod team if some posts are pruned or deleted

 

[Feanor]

I'm going to re-open this thread, but keep in mind that this is not a forum that tolerates flamebaiting, trolling, or random political discussion. If you've read the rules you know political discussion is against the rules in principle. We have been lax on enforcing that rule here, because of the nature of the conflict, but keep in mind this is still a place for discussing facts, events, and their logical ramifications.

The goal of this thread is to provide an understanding of events over there, not an attempt to figure out rights and wrongs of either side. Before you hit that post button, think if your post will contribute to that.

 

[2007yellow430]

I'm going to re-open this thread, but keep in mind that this is not a forum that tolerates flamebaiting, trolling, or random political discussion. If you've read the rules you know political discussion is against the rules in principle. We have been lax on enforcing that rule here, because of the nature of the conflict, but keep in mind this is still a place for discussing facts, events, and their logical ramifications.

The goal of this thread is to provide an understanding of events over there, not an attempt to figure out rights and wrongs of either side. Before you hit that post button, think if your post will contribute to that.

Feanor:

I'm having difficulty in figuring out what is and what isn't acceptable. Both sides are spreading some mis-information from what I can see, and there is a problem in figuring some of it out. Would it be possible for you to provide examples of what is and isn't acceptable in our posts?

Thanks,

Art

 

[Feanor]

Update.

The Ukrainian government offensive continues. They've broken through in the south, are taking the town of Torez, and are currently fighting around Shahtersk. But their positions there appear to be fairly precarious. This is a clear attempt to cut Donetsk off from Lugansk. They've also taken Lutugino.

However if sufficient rebel forces are available, the Kiev forces in Shahtersk can be surrounded quite easily.

Силы ÐТО продолжают «разрезать» ÐовороÑÑию на две чаÑти
zloy_odessit -
Блог Ивана ОктÑбрÑ-КолорадÑкого - Ð˜Ð½Ñ„Ð¾Ñ€Ð¼Ð°Ñ†Ð¸Ñ Ñ Ð¼ÐµÑÑ‚

Video of what appear to be rebel forces, moving towards Shahtersk. Details are absent. You can see a few tanks and IFVs, but mostly civilian trucks, cars and buses.

In the second half of the video, the driver is in Shahtersk, films rebels, but notes absence of Ukrainian troops. Some of the rebel infantry looks almost like professional military, others have barely anything.

The video may have been shot before Ukrainian troops entered the city, or it may be that they never did.

[nomedia="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lm5wtY1sdDA"]Битва за ШахтёрÑк репортаж Ñ Ð¼ÐµÑта Ñобытий 27 07 2014 - YouTube[/nomedia]

Heavy fighting is continuing in Gorlovka. It's mostly surrounded, but still held by a significant rebel force. There are reports of Grad firing from one part of the town into another. Whose is unclear.

Over 30 civilians dead are reported from recent artillery fire in Gorlovka.

zloy_odessit -
Блог Ивана ОктÑбрÑ-КолорадÑкого - ИнтереÑно, ÐºÐ°ÐºÐ°Ñ Ñволочь дезу про Ñдачу Горловки запуÑтила?
КрыÑа из нержавеющей Ñтали - в Горловке ранним утром из одного жилмаÑÑива ÑтрелÑли в другой из "Града"
Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Àðòîáñòðåëû â Äîíåöêîé îáëàñòè: äî 30 æåðòâ â Ãîðëîâêå

Government troops also essentially took Pervomaysk. They seemed to also take Popasna. A rebel counter-attack at Popasna has forced Ukrainian forces to retreat, but they probably still hold Pervomaysk.

Ополченцы выбили украинÑких Ñиловиков из города ПопаÑнаÑ
https://www.google.com/maps/place/P...2!3m1!1s0x40e0075888dd7381:0xcfa25d05a92fb10b
zloy_odessit -

Heavy fighting is continuing in Debal'tsevo. Government troops are in the town. Second and third links is battle damage photos.

zloy_odessit -
 
jerry24_it:

Government troops have begun attacking into Donetsk.

Боевые дейÑÑ‚Ð²Ð¸Ñ Ð² Донецке перемеÑтилиÑÑŒ в черту города
Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com ::  Äîíåöêå áîè ïåðåìåñòèëèñü èç àýðîïîðòà â ÷åðòó ãîðîäà, â Ëóãàíñêîé îáëàñòè ñèëû ÀÒÎ øòóðìóþò Ïåðâîìàéñê

Ukrainian troop column moving through Severodonetsk towards Lugansk.

jerry24_it:

Units of the 24th Mech Bde at the Dolzhanskiy border checkpoint report being pinned down by massive heavy artillery fire. The fire came from the direction of Russia. The wounded were then evacuated to Russia. Soldiers say that out of the 26 days they've spent at this position, only 5 went by without shelling.

jerry24_it:

40 soldiers of the 51st Mech Bde have fled to Russia. They say they were abandoned by their own military, surrounded by rebels, and constantly pounded by arty fire. The Ukrainian MinDef called them traitors. Their unit was attached to the 72nd Mech Bde, part of maneuver element south.

The soldiers say the 72nd Mech Bde retreated, abandoning them. Their vehicles were destroyed by Grad fire from Russia, and they hid in their dugouts, among bodies of dead comrades. They had no posts, no recon, nothing. They just tried to survive.

The Ukrainian government stated that all the personnel in that area had retreaded successfully. The soldiers then surrendered to the rebels, were fed, cleaned up, and sent to the Russian border using a humanitarian corridor set up by the Russian government.

The Ukrainian government says they are investigating the event.

КрыÑа из нержавеющей Ñтали - Гелетей подтвердил, что в РоÑÑию убежал 41 военный предатель
Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Ìèíîáîðîíû Óêðàèíû ðàññëåäóåò çàÿâëåíèÿ î "ïîáåãå 40 âîåííîñëóæàùèõ" â Ðîññèþ
Ð”ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ñ ÐœÐ¾ÐºÑ€ÑƒÑˆÐ¸Ð½ - Как ÑдалоÑÑŒ подразделение 51-й омбр

Ukrainian 2 dead and 21 wounded were also transferred in an unrelated incident, using a humanitarian corridor set up by Russia at border checkpoint Matveev Kurgan.

Another sources says 18 wounded and 8 dead crossed the border into Russia. The figures may overlap, or may be two separate counts.

[nomedia]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mvL8rM_mxOs[/nomedia]
Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Ïî îòêðûòîìó Ðîññèåé ãóìàíèòàðíîìó êîðèäîðó ïåðåäàíû åùå äåâÿòü ðàíåíûõ è ÷åòâåðî óáèòûõ âîåííîñëóæàùèõ Óêðàèíû

Another scene of mass destruction this time in the 79th Air mobile Bde. They report taking rocket fire from Russia, and say that they are also abandoned.

Ð”ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ñ ÐœÐ¾ÐºÑ€ÑƒÑˆÐ¸Ð½ - О положении 79-й оаÑмбр

A nice video report on Ukrainian troop positions, in the 79th Airmobile Bde.

Ð”ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ñ ÐœÐ¾ÐºÑ€ÑƒÑˆÐ¸Ð½ - О бомбардировке Ñ Ð±ÐµÑпилотников

Alleged satellite photos of Russian arty firing into Ukraine. Russia says they're fakes.

Ð”ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ñ ÐœÐ¾ÐºÑ€ÑƒÑˆÐ¸Ð½ - Какие еÑÑ‚ÑŒ ваши доказательÑтва?©
zloy_odessit -
Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Ïîñîë ÑØÀ íà Óêðàèíå îïóáëèêîâàë ñïóòíèêîâûå ñíèìêè îáñòðåëîâ ñ òåððèòîðèè Ðîññèè
Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Â Ìèíîáîðîíû ÐÔ çàÿâëÿþò îá "èíôîðìàöèîííîé êàðóñåëè" ôåéêîâûõ ñïóòíèêîâûõ ñíèìêîâ ðîññèéñêî-óêðàèíñêîé ãðàíèöû

A huge rebel troop column. 6 BMP-2s, 2 Strela-10 SAM, 8 MT-LBs towing cannons (5 D-30 howitzers, 3 others I can't ID), 2 Kamaz guntruck with ZU-23-2s (one of the Kamaz is towing a D-30 also), 3 civilian buses carrying ammo and personnel, and 1 regular Kamaz army truck. At the end of the column is a big truck, civilian, with no markings. Maybe also part of the column.

Overall, assuming the vehicles are carrying troops, this is something comparable to a mech-btln minus, with half of an artillery btln (9 arty pieces). The many of the MT-LBs have infantry riding on top of them. It's unclear whether there's anyone inside of them.

The second link is a google maps location of Roven'ki, where this video was allegedly shot.

[nomedia="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9EhlrAdiNrk"]Ровеньки: Ð¾Ð³Ñ€Ð¾Ð¼Ð½Ð°Ñ ÐºÐ¾Ð»Ð¾Ð½Ð½Ð° ополченцев 27.07.2014 - YouTube[/nomedia]
https://www.google.com/maps/place/R...2!3m1!1s0x40e1c44a1839b3d9:0x12d2b45f0b406f6e

There are report of cell phone service disruptions in Lugansk region.

Блог Ивана ОктÑбрÑ-КолорадÑкого - Инфу льют и льют

A peasant in Kharkov region found a UAV of unknown origin.

КреÑÑ‚ÑŒÑнин в ХарьковÑкой облаÑти нашел в Ñвоем огороде беÑпилотник неизвеÑтного производÑтва

An armored Kamaz made by volunteers is being provided to the Ukrainian armed forces.

УкраинÑкие волонтеры подготовили первый "народный бронированных КÐÐœÐЗ"

A Serbian fighter was captured in Ukraine.

zloy_odessit -

An interesting collection of info on captured vehicles, but the sources are questionable. If this is true, the rebels have captured much larger quantities of equipment from the government then previously thought or reported. This would mean that they are considerably less dependent on Russian supplies.

I'm a little skeptical though. I'd like to see a little more detailed evidence on the incidents of capture.

yurasumy -

The National Guard has received Belorussian MAZ trucks.

ÐÐ°Ñ†Ð¸Ð¾Ð½Ð°Ð»ÑŒÐ½Ð°Ñ Ð“Ð²Ð°Ñ€Ð´Ð¸Ñ Ð£ÐºÑ€Ð°Ð¸Ð½Ñ‹ получила белоруÑÑкие грузовые автомобили ÐœÐЗ

Ukraine is re-routing exports of military equipment for domestic use. T-64B1M tanks, T-72B tanks, BTR-3 APCs, and other equipment.

bmpd -

Russia has placed limits on imports of Ukrainian dairy products.

 

Medical officials on Donetsk say they have over 400 dead civilians in the course of this conflict. Human Rights Watch says both sides are using Grad MLRS indiscriminately, killing civilians.

 

Meanwhile a fuel shortage is developing in Ukraine, as gas stations belonging to Kolomoyskiy, governor of Dnepropertrovsk and a major oligarch (Privat group), have stopped selling gas. The reason given is an inventorization.

 

The US openly accuses Russia of the Boeing tragedy.

 

Meanwhile Russia forms an investigation team from the Ministry of Transportation to participate in the investigation of the tragedy.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Ìèíòðàíñ ñôîðìèðîâàë ðîññèéñêóþ ãðóïïó ñïåöèàëèñòîâ äëÿ ó÷àñòèÿ â ðàññëåäîâàíèè Boeing 777 íà Óêðàèíå

Experts from Holland have arrived at the crash site.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Ãîëëàíäñêèå ýêñïåðòû ïðèáûëè ê ìåñòó êðóøåíèÿ ìàëàéçèéñêîãî Boeing â Äîíåöêîé îáëàñòè

Over 40 000 Ukrainian refugees currently in Rostov region.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: ×èñëî óêðàèíñêèõ áåæåíöåâ â Ðîñòîâñêîé îáëàñòè ïðåâûñèëî 40 òûñÿ÷, îáúÿâèëî ìåñòíîå Ì×Ñ

Ukrainian sources report deployment of special operations troops from Australia and Holland to Russia.

Looks like lunacy to me.

bmpd -

In Nikolaev region, wives and mothers of soldiers protested against the Ukrainian government blocking a bridge for two days, but were forcibly removed by police. A few were detained. Overall it looks fairly peaceful.

КрыÑа из нержавеющей Ñтали - Ð’ Ðиколаеве Ð¼Ð¸Ð»Ð¸Ñ†Ð¸Ñ Ð¿Ñ€Ð¾Ð³Ð½Ð°Ð»Ð° Ñ Ñ‚Ñ€Ð°ÑÑÑ‹ митингующих мам и жен Ñолдатов

 

[Feanor]

Feanor:

I'm having difficulty in figuring out what is and what isn't acceptable. Both sides are spreading some mis-information from what I can see, and there is a problem in figuring some of it out. Would it be possible for you to provide examples of what is and isn't acceptable in our posts?

Thanks,

Art

Well it comes down to this. Figuring out what's what is perfectly fine. In fact if you look through my posts, especially some of my exchanges with Twain, that's exactly what a lot of it is. Figuring out what's really happening. That's basically the point of this thread. Arguing, discussing, exchanging views and information, that's fine.

If you want an example of a post that not acceptable, look at the long post overlander wrote a few pages back. Myself, another mod, and a few other people responded to him, letting him know that this is not the type of posting we want here.

It really comes down to this, make intelligent and rational posts without trying to smear, incite, or provoke anyone, and you should be fine. I've looked through the posts you've made in this thread and elsewhere, and it seems to me that you have no problem.

 

[Nick underscore]

Thanks again for the update Feanor - the time you put in is really appreciated.

Any direct information on the updates for Saur-Mahyla (Mogila)? Confusing situation, but you mentioned these key high grounds a few weeks back and the rebel push towards border. Has this front been closed off with the relative collapse / retreat of the 72nd Mech (w/ det from 51st Mech you mentioned above) and 79th Air Mobile?

Could you also comfirm any news on Borodai (DNR)?

 

[wittmanace]

Feanor,

so the numbers you posted are(?), in english:

Т-64 tanks — 25 pcs
BMP — 19 PCS
BTR- 11 PCS

2S1 Gvodika — 11 pcs

BM-21 Grad- 12 pcs

arty d-30 — 5 pcs

mortar, 82 мм — 16 pcs;
zu-23-2 — 2 pcs

??? gun tractor? (АТ) — 5 pcs.

 

[Twain]

Update.

The Ukrainian government offensive continues. They've broken through in the south, are taking the town of Torez, and are currently fighting around Shahtersk. But their positions there appear to be fairly precarious. This is a clear attempt to cut Donetsk off from Lugansk. They've also taken Lutugino.

However if sufficient rebel forces are available, the Kiev forces in Shahtersk can be surrounded quite easily.

I've seen a few reports that this is really the only goal here and that there may not be a significant attempt to secure the towns at this time. The main goal being only to cut the lines of communication with Donetsk. With the Ukranian army holding at least part of Dbal'tseve and the fighting near Saur-Mogila severing/endangering that line of communication, the road through Shahterks -Torez area was the last really secure line for resupply to donetsk. Related to this, apparently the ukrainian army is making no attempt to secure the crash site as it is not strategically important.

Forgot this: It appears Borodai has been replaced by his deputy PM and Borodai may be in moscow. If true, I bet he had an interesting trip to get through all the contested territory.

 

[Feanor]

Thanks again for the update Feanor - the time you put in is really appreciated.

Any direct information on the updates for Saur-Mahyla (Mogila)? Confusing situation, but you mentioned these key high grounds a few weeks back and the rebel push towards border. Has this front been closed off with the relative collapse / retreat of the 72nd Mech (w/ det from 51st Mech you mentioned above) and 79th Air Mobile?

The rebels reached the border, were pushed away again a little bit. But overall the southern maneuver element is cut off, broken up into several pieces, and pinned down. Their vehicles are being annihilated, their supplies are running low, and reinforcing/resupplying them seems to be impossible. Casualties are rising, and it looks like they will basically get chewed up until nothing is left. The brigades have not escaped the encirclement as far as I know. The 72nd Mech Bde detachment with attachments from the 51st retreated from those positions, but as far as I know they haven't managed to get out. The only break out so far was ~80 soldiers (most wounded) who broke out on their own.

Could you also comfirm any news on Borodai (DNR)?

No. I don't know for sure.

I've seen a few reports that this is really the only goal here and that there may not be a significant attempt to secure the towns at this time. The main goal being only to cut the lines of communication with Donetsk. With the Ukranian army holding at least part of Dbal'tseve and the fighting near Saur-Mogila severing/endangering that line of communication, the road through Shahterks -Torez area was the last really secure line for resupply to donetsk. Related to this, apparently the ukrainian army is making no attempt to secure the crash site as it is not strategically important.

This may be true, but it also sets up the government troops for a rebel counter-attack to slice through their lines. The question becomes, can the rebels launch an offensive that takes advantage of over-extended government lines.

Feanor,

so the numbers you posted are(?), in english:

Т-64 tanks — 25 pcs
BMP — 19 PCS
BTR- 11 PCS

2S1 Gvodika — 11 pcs

BM-21 Grad- 12 pcs

arty d-30 — 5 pcs

mortar, 82 мм — 16 pcs;
zu-23-2 — 2 pcs

??? gun tractor? (АТ) — 5 pcs.

That appears to be correct. These are vehicles under DNR command, not including the LNR forces. Again they are not verified merely claimed. These are vehicles allegedly captured from the government.

Actual numbers under rebel control are larger. In fact if you notice, the column video I posted had a larger number of towed guns then is listed here.

 

[drandul]

question to experts

I have a questions- not sure if it's correct thread.- it's regarding Ukrain PVO capabilities.
on one of Ukrainian military tv channels they showed on 16-July-2014 some active radar system i'm straggling to identify. and looks like it was in formation with lately famous BUK launcher.
Could some one comment that video fragment posted on Youtube - [nomedia]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q3MomxNHnUA&list=UUWRZ7gEgbry5FI2-46EX3jA#t=288[/nomedia]
thanks

 

[swerve]

If the reports of Russian fire support are correct, it could explain the difference in performance of Ukrainian forces along the border from the rest.

 

[drandul]

If the reports of Russian fire support are correct, it could explain the difference in performance of Ukrainian forces along the border from the rest.

Probably...
The thing i can't explain - why Russia has agreed to use drones along it's border by OSCE monitors.
OSCE plans to use drones in eastern Ukraine | EUROPE ONLINE

Other question- what is the type of drones to be used ...anyone knows where to find tender information?

 

[John Fedup]

Probably...
The thing i can't explain - why Russia has agreed to use drones along it's border by OSCE monitors.
OSCE plans to use drones in eastern Ukraine | EUROPE ONLINE

Other question- what is the type of drones to be used ...anyone knows where to find tender information?

The OSCE site references a July 14 news story that the SMM might use drones to monitor a ceasefire in the event this occurs. Both Russia and the Ukraine agreed. I could find no information about a tender or where the drones would come from.

 

[Feanor]

If the reports of Russian fire support are correct, it could explain the difference in performance of Ukrainian forces along the border from the rest.

Well there's several possible explanations. Unfortunately it's hard to verify them. For starters the forces along the border are few in number, and stretched out along a very long and narrow piece of land. Maneuvering to reinforce each other is difficult, and the length of front they have to hold is quite long. Supplies are scarce, and resupply is basically impossible. Air support is very limited. Artillery is almost non-existent. At the same time a very large chunk of rebel forces are facing them. And of course they're under massive arty fire, probably from Russia as well.

On the other hand the rest of the Ukrainian forces are quite numerous, are facing the weaker rebel force, have plenty of supplies, and reinforcements, and can maneuver quite easily.

If Russian cross-border fire is really happening (which I think is quite likely) then it not the only factor responsible for the difference in performance.

Probably...
The thing i can't explain - why Russia has agreed to use drones along it's border by OSCE monitors.
OSCE plans to use drones in eastern Ukraine | EUROPE ONLINE

Other question- what is the type of drones to be used ...anyone knows where to find tender information?

Maybe they believe they can bypass this type of surveillance. Or maybe they have some way of stalling it from taking effect.

 

[Twain]

Feanor: (or anyone else who might have insight into this)

What is Putin's desired end state here? Right now his actions make no sense at all. It appears that russia is sending just enough support in wepons and manpower to barely keep the separatists alive, yet at the same time he has sacrificed any chance at plausible deniability by shelling ukranian army positions. Unless he decides to invade ukraine with russian troops instead of the "ex military" he is currently using, it appears that the separatists are going to lose in the coming weeks. So what is his goal here? Prolonging the situation as he is currently doing may punish Ukraine, but it is also causing more and more sanctions to be applied to russia which is going to hurt the russian economy.

Outright invasion would result in russia not only being completely isolated, but possibly outright US or nato intervention. Declaring the annexataion of DNR and LNR would be a laughed at without direct russian military intervention.


Related to these questions is this article. In general the author suggests that Poroshenko, by launching the offensive against the separatists has seized both the political and military advantage and left Putin in a difficult situation with few good options.

The Changing Equation of Escalation
Kiev, not the Kremlin, is now writing the political narrative of the region

https://ip-journal.dgap.org/en/blog/eye-europe/changing-equation-escalation

 

[wittmanace]

Feanor: (or anyone else who might have insight into this)

What is Putin's desired end state here? Right now his actions make no sense at all. It appears that russia is sending just enough support in wepons and manpower to barely keep the separatists alive, yet at the same time he has sacrificed any chance at plausible deniability by shelling ukranian army positions. Unless he decides to invade ukraine with russian troops instead of the "ex military" he is currently using, it appears that the separatists are going to lose in the coming weeks. So what is his goal here? Prolonging the situation as he is currently doing may punish Ukraine, but it is also causing more and more sanctions to be applied to russia which is going to hurt the russian economy.

Outright invasion would result in russia not only being completely isolated, but possibly outright US or nato intervention. Declaring the annexataion of DNR and LNR would be a laughed at without direct russian military intervention.


Related to these questions is this article. In general the author suggests that Poroshenko, by launching the offensive against the separatists has seized both the political and military advantage and left Putin in a difficult situation with few good options.

The Changing Equation of Escalation
Kiev, not the Kremlin, is now writing the political narrative of the region

https://ip-journal.dgap.org/en/blog/eye-europe/changing-equation-escalation

I think one needs context and balance here. Nato is not going to fight russia militarily, and russia is not going to fight nato militarily.

The end game is hard to tell I think, and I doubt either side had thought 3 months ago that we would be where we are, or that it is plausible that either side thought we would get here when there were protests in Kiev. The longer objective for Russia must be stopping EU and western sphere spread towards eastern europe (regardless of one thinks about that). This obviously goes hadn in hand with either reasserting Russia's influence and pre eminence in the near abroad, or maintaining a neutral near abroad.

 

[SolarWind]

Feanor: (or anyone else who might have insight into this)

What is Putin's desired end state here? Right now his actions make no sense at all. It appears that russia is sending just enough support in wepons and manpower to barely keep the separatists alive, yet at the same time he has sacrificed any chance at plausible deniability by shelling ukranian army positions. Unless he decides to invade ukraine with russian troops instead of the "ex military" he is currently using, it appears that the separatists are going to lose in the coming weeks. So what is his goal here? Prolonging the situation as he is currently doing may punish Ukraine, but it is also causing more and more sanctions to be applied to russia which is going to hurt the russian economy.

It is important to note here that Russian involvement in Ukraine is not itself causing sanctions to be applied. It is Western reaction to the said involvement that causes sanctions. From my understanding the effect of these sanctions will be to drastically increase costs for Russian military intervention in Ukraine, and persuade Russia not to get involved militarily or to actually scale back their involvement. Since Russian economy will be severely hurt by sanctions, opportunity costs of military action and the associated rebuilding of annexed territories will be increased, and stability of Putin's power may be shaken. This will work in dissuading Russia from becoming militarily involved any further or actually persuade them to scale back their involvement, assuming rationality on the part of Russian leadership. The sanctions work in harmony with the recent cease-fire proposal by the US, and the fact that no one wants a real shooting war with Russia.

http://lenta.ru/news/2014/07/29/ready/

 

[Nick underscore]

The longer objective for Russia must be stopping EU and western sphere spread towards eastern europe (regardless of one thinks about that). This obviously goes hadn in hand with either reasserting Russia's influence and pre eminence in the near abroad, or maintaining a neutral near abroad.

Can't help but think this will come down to a trade-off on the NATO/ European Missile Defence Shield. Sergei Lavrov has been vocal on Russia's positon for quite some time and continually questioning the need for such a provactive weapon system by the west.

Crimea was an opportunity that seems obvious and logical (illegal or not) from Russian POV and with the same situation being played out, would do it again.

 

[Twain]

I think one needs context and balance here. Nato is not going to fight russia militarily, and russia is not going to fight nato militarily.

I understand and I think it is a long shot, but then again, I never thought this mess would drag out this long either or that russia would intervene to this degree unless they launched an actual invasion. Basically, Putin has the worst of both worlds. Everyone knows he is intervening and supplying weapons, but the still isn't winning the war.

The end game is hard to tell I think, and I doubt either side had thought 3 months ago that we would be where we are, or that it is plausible that either side thought we would get here when there were protests in Kiev. The longer objective for Russia must be stopping EU and western sphere spread towards eastern europe (regardless of one thinks about that). This obviously goes hadn in hand with either reasserting Russia's influence and pre eminence in the near abroad, or maintaining a neutral near abroad.

Yeah that's true, but the problem is almost everything Putin is doing is driving the Ukranians further into the EU/Nato sphere of influence and further from russia, even in eastern ukraine. He's sending in just enough weapons and mercenaries to prolong the fight but not win it (at least at this stage) At the same time, the nature of the troops he is sending in are actually serving to push even the people who were pro russian at the start of the conflict further away. (in short, he sent in undisciplined troops who essentially destroyed/prevented basic services from occurring) Overall his actions have on the whole been very detrimental to those goals. So what is his desired end state because it looks as if even a neutral Ukraine is unlikely at this stage.