So if I understand correctly, you mean that France would either come through on Mistral deliveries or properly cancel the contract and pay the penalties. If this is the case, I don't think the non-delivery of Mistrals would in itself hurt France's image or relationship with Russia. This may be the best face-saving option.
Russian Navy Discussions and Updates
- Thread starter Spacearrow99
- Start date
John Fedup
The Bunker Group
France really can not afford your latter option so the second ship will likely be delivered.
the French aren't cancelling the 2nd Mistral - it will be delivered as per the current contract.
No matter what? I'm not so sure. Will France still deliver the ships if Russia just straight up invades Ukraine? What if Russia invades the Baltics after that?
I think there are circumstances under which France will cancel the contract. The question is what are those circumstances.
John Fedup
The Bunker Group
I doubt Russia will invade until the first ship is delivered in Oct. and by then winter is coming, Ukraine's money will be running out and the gas will be cut off so why bother.
Nick underscore
Member
Are you holding out on the updates Feanor? You know something?
France can cancel the 2nd delivery.. but not the cancel the ship - which could be interrupted from the first part of gf's comment.
Totally correct - circumstances going forward will determine whether this will go through. I can't see France reneging under EU/ NATO pressure - not their style. IMV, it will be based on the next Russian Govt move(s)
France may breathe a huge sigh of relief, when/ if phase III of sanctions get introduced.. This may provide her with the 'out' she may need on the domestic political front. There are other avenues to explore and some time remains for France to decide. At the moment I believe we have to take it that the 2nd Mistral will be delivered per 2011 contract.
Russia won't invade either as it will be far too bothersome. Without mobilization and investment in the ten- to eleven-digit region Russia can't pull off larger-scale sustained operations in a high-intensity environment (though of course neither can NATO-Europe).
The French govt confirmed the other day that they are bound to honour the contract for ship 2 - they had a good crack at the UK for "hypocrisy" over the treatment of russian billionaires and reinforced that this delivery would occur
russia has in real terms rescued the french shipbuilding industry - so they are determined to follow through with current vessels. they also have 400 russian sailors to train over the next 12 months
Nick underscore
Member
Hypocrisy was also focused on the open UK defence licences to Russia. Of which there were 80+ and only 30+ cancelled (equated to circa £125m export pa). Much of this was body armour, NV gear, Comms equipment, sniper rifles and ammunition.
Hollande comments http://www.businessweek.com/news/2014-07-22/hollande-threat-to-cancel-russia-mistral-warship-may-be-empty
“Can the rest of the contract be honored?” Hollande said. “That will depend on Russia’s attitude.”
It does sound hollow..
Eh, at best they rescued the military shipyard of STX France.
depends on whether you're a french pollie or not
I get a mass of defence briefs per day and can't remember which pub it was - but the French shipyard personnel were adamant that without the Mistrals french shipbuilding would have been at considerable risk
I would be curious about further tech support from the French to the Russians for long-term maintenance and system integration, and whether any of those are up for discussion. Heck, I have no clue how much support the Russians got in the initial contract.
Giving the RFN a couple of brand-new MISTRALs without long-term support is a recipe for failure.
Haha. No. I'm not holding out. It was just a minor point. I guess it didn't need to be made, I just wanted to point out that nothing is unconditional.Are you holding out on the updates Feanor? You know something?
Jesus Christ, really? 1.2 bln EU made the differences between life and death for French shipbuilding? I have a hard time believing that...depends on whether you're a french pollie or not
Earlier this year there were reports that the Mistrals require a different grade and much cleaner fuel than the rest of the Russian fleet. The articles said running Russian grade fuel for any significant amount of time will wreck the engines. To misquote Clarkson, because there are too many twigs in it.
Nick underscore
Member
More comments from Deputy PM Rogozin.
http://www.themoscowtimes.com/business/article/russia-can-build-own-mistral-warships-rogozin-says-/504343.html
And more,
http://en.itar-tass.com/russia/742884
Feanor - Are the domestic Russian media concerned over the aspects of the contract vs. sanctions? As comments made by Rogozin, seem to be in the context of a general response to questions from RIA Novosti and ITAR-TASS and not a deliberate statement per se.
Were the Ivan Rogov's or the Alligators ice strengthen and able to operate in Arctic conditions?
Thanks
http://www.themoscowtimes.com/business/article/russia-can-build-own-mistral-warships-rogozin-says-/504343.html
And more,
http://en.itar-tass.com/russia/742884
Feanor - Are the domestic Russian media concerned over the aspects of the contract vs. sanctions? As comments made by Rogozin, seem to be in the context of a general response to questions from RIA Novosti and ITAR-TASS and not a deliberate statement per se.
Were the Ivan Rogov's or the Alligators ice strengthen and able to operate in Arctic conditions?
Thanks
Nick underscore
Member
Why isn't there an established propulsion industry in Russia? Has that always been the case? Thanks for the info
The majority of Russian shipbuilding imports their engines from enterprises like Ukraine's Zarya Machine Building. Saturn is trying to move in on some of that market, but the production cooperation is left from Soviet times.
Nick underscore
Member
Cheers Feanor
Back to the Mistrals. Seems that a 'collective' buy (as mentioned a week or so back) is gaining some pace in discussions. Germany is pushing an EU purchase of the contract, with NATO an alternative. Russia Sanctions: Germany, Others Suggest EU Buy Out French Warships Contract From Russia
“It is being discussed in Paris as an option,” Edouard Tétreau, head of the Paris office of think tank European Council on Foreign Relations, told Defense News. “It is gaining traction in Paris. There are diplomats and politicians in Paris who see that as a possibility.”
Jean-Paul Perruche, chairman of the think tank EuroDefense-France, told Defense News that an EU acquisition has “been under discussion for the last three months under confidentiality.”
Early in its form, but it is sound.
So the French do what they're told and the order is cancelled, what's to stop the Russians building Mistrals at Baltisky Shipyard in St Petersburg. They've already built significant sections there, one large chunk is floating in the Neva right now. I'm pretty sure the Russians must by now have the working plans for the ships.