Ukranian Crisis

[wittmanace]

There is no way that the system could be used by "people who had no previous experience", since these are very complex systems, typically some of the most complicated any army operates.

I had a limited training on GIRAFFE radar, as an operator, which is used by Serbian army, and I must say it is not something you can learn in two weeks. To put aside the complexity of operating entire Air Defense battery.

And that is exactly what is puzzling me in this mess. You simply can not just stumble upon the dozens of people with enough expertise, to operate these systems. They have to be professionals - the question is where did these people come from in eastern Ukraine. Unfortunately, there is only one answer - Russia.

If it gets proven that the rebel BUK was manned by Russian staff, this will be a political disaster for Russians.

Some of what you say is why I asked about what experience any defectors have brought with them

 

[Twain]

where is here?

generic here, I'm referring to the whole chain of events leading up to the shootdown, sorry I didn't make that clear

 

[stojo]

Some of what you say is why I asked about what experience any defectors have brought with them

I can assume that there are some people with experience among the defected officers, especially because some of the BUK systems where located in what is now rebel held area, even before the insurgency started, so you are right on that one.

However, in order to operate such a complex system, you need not one, or two experienced individuals, you need dozens of them. Some people that operate those are officers, only by rank and uniform - actually they are highly skilled engineers, and you need quite a few of those. In my view rebels in general, don't have that much professional man power on their own, regardless of the defectors. I wouldn't be surprised if the captured BUK systems where operated by Russian cadre.

 

[Rimasta]

What happened to the Nato awacs surveilence aircraft that where operating nearby.Would they not be able to shed any light on what has gone on.

I was just wondering about that. The NATO deployment did have E-3 AWACS but again, this is a means of American technical reconnaissance just like our Key Hole satellites, or DSB early warning SATs, and most likely electronic snoopers in the form of satellites or RC-135's. So even if they have the evidence, showing the world how good your data collection capabilities are, might be something we aren't ready to show the world. No doubt though, with the ongoing crisis, I can say with a high degree of certainty that the National Reconnaissance Office has re-tasked its birds to watch the Ukraine. They'd be stupid not to.

 

[wittmanace]

I can assume that there are some people with experience among the defected officers, especially because some of the BUK systems where located in what is now rebel held area, even before the insurgency started, so you are right on that one.

However, in order to operate such a complex system, you need not one, or two experienced individuals, you need dozens of them. Some people that operate those are officers, only by rank and uniform - actually they are highly skilled engineers, and you need quite a few of those. In my view rebels in general, don't have that much professional man power on their own, regardless of the defectors. I wouldn't be surprised if the captured BUK systems where operated by Russian cadre.

I noted the cossack reference before, so I guess it could be cossacks that have previous military experience, whether or not acting directly or indirectly for russia.

 

[STURM]

Some interesting stuff here covering what we spoke about and comments by a Russian specialist. His opinion is that the tape recordings are genuine. One theory is that the Buk was operating without its '2nd radar' which I assume is its
target acquisition radar.

Ukraine rebels accused of hiding evidence of links to MH17 crash | World news | theguardian.com

Ironically the Buk-1M was marketed to the Malaysian army a few years ago and apparently was seriously considered.

 

[swerve]

There have been other, similar suggestions. It's being said that the launcher vehicle has a radar, but a limited one, & this system may have lacked the dedicated vehicle which carries the main radar. Therefore it could operate, but at reduced capacity.

Combined with a probably ill-trained crew, & it's easy to see how they could make this mistake. They may have shot at anything they could, assuming (because they'd never thought to check, though it's be easy) that anything overhead was Ukrainian.

Poorly trained & trigger-happy is a dangerous combination.

 

[STURM]

Just for comparison sakes, Jernas can operate without the Dagger acquisition and Blindfire tracking radar. My guess is that although the separatists may have gotten hold of or received a Buk; that they probably didn't get everthing that goes with it.

 

[nkvd]

Two of the 28 Australians killed when MH17 was shot down over Ukraine were members of a family who lost two other relatives when Malaysia Airlines flight MH370 disappeared in March, it has emerged.
https://news.google.com/news?ncl=di...a=X&ei=tV_JU7iELqOQ7AbhoIHQAQ&ved=0CCwQqgIwAA

 

[stojo]

Just for comparison sakes, Jernas can operate without the Dagger acquisition and Blindfire tracking radar. My guess is that although the separatists may have gotten hold of or received a Buk; that they probably didn't get everthing that goes with it.

I'm not an expert, but BUK's Fire Dome engagement radar has a limited target acquisition capability, as well. If they where able to see an airliner, flying high, they could point the radar in that direction, and acquire the target.

Further more, if that was the case, they would not need anything more than that single TELAR that we saw on that youtube video from Snezhnoe.

 

[Feanor]

There have been other, similar suggestions. It's being said that the launcher vehicle has a radar, but a limited one, & this system may have lacked the dedicated vehicle which carries the main radar. Therefore it could operate, but at reduced capacity.

Combined with a probably ill-trained crew, & it's easy to see how they could make this mistake. They may have shot at anything they could, assuming (because they'd never thought to check, though it's be easy) that anything overhead was Ukrainian.

Poorly trained & trigger-happy is a dangerous combination.

Yep. Only the TELAR was seen at Snezhnoe, no main radar, no transporter-loader, no commands vehicle.

Proper air defences can tell them from enemy combat aircraft, except when they let their emotions take over (Persian Gulf, 1987...). Height, size, route - & published schedules.

Assuming the person operating it knows what they're doing, right?

CNN is reporting that the BUK launcher involved in the shootdown was moved back into Russia overnight. There will be a huge coverup here but (also according to CNN), US intelligence has determined the precise launch point, it's well within rebel held territory.

Instead of telling us that the launch was "well within rebel territory" how about they tell us where it actually took place from. Given the quality of CNN material I hardly trust them to make conclusions of that sort.

Air disasters, even those involving shoot downs, rarely have a single cause and thorough investigations usually show up multiple failings that led to the loss of life.

Many airlines had taken it on themselves to divert their aircraft around Eastern Ukraine, Malaysia for what ever reason did not.

Actually they did. All their previous flights carefully flew south of the conflict zone. Only this particular flight was directed to fly through the conflict zone by Ukrainian air traffic control.

According to the intercepted communications the rebels, whether they fired the actual missile or not, have been taking pot-shots at anything and everything on the basis they don't have any aircraft so its not one of theirs.

Yep. It doesn't take intercepted comms to know that.

Ukraine does not appear to have control of their own airspace or knowledge of what is happening in it.

Well let's be fair, it's because the rebels systematically attacked and disabled airspace control assets in the conflict zone.

No-one, not even the rebels themselves actually seem to know what capabilities and ordinance they have.

Well that's because "the rebels" are actually a whole bunch of loosely coordinate separate forces. There are at least 4 distinct major groups, and a plethora of smaller ones.

The rebels, as evidenced by recent friendly fire incidents do not have control over their own forces.

The rebels, as evidenced by their firing on Ukrainian targets from neutral and possibly even Russian territory have no regard for the rule of law or rules of engagement.

Add to all of this that conflicts such as these tend to attract murderous psychopaths, to all sides, who like to identify themselves as soldiers of fortune or freedom fighters. These scum, infiltrating the local forces and stirring up things to better get their fill of death and suffering, seem to have out done themselves this time.

I doubt a murderous psychopath is responsible for the shoot down. A mistake by perfectly ordinary SAM operators from the rebel side is far more likely. The psychopaths are more likely to be found on the front line, or among the "security" forces on both sides.

 

[Blackshoe]

It's varied from south of Crimea to as far north as Donetsk. That looks like normal variation to me, depending on winds & the like.

Some lunatics on the Russian side have claimed that it was a Ukrainian attempt to assassinate Putin. It was reported by Interfax & RT This is based on the following:
Putin flew back from Brazil yesterday. En route, his aircraft passed over a waypoint near Warsaw.
The MAS flight passed over the same waypoint.
They were 'at almost the same time'.
Putin's Il-96 looks very similar to a Boeing 777.

What flat stones do these people crawl out from under?
Times: they passed the waypoint 37 minutes apart. That's about 500 km flying, at cruise speed.
Appearance: I could tell 'em apart from the ground when they're at 10000 metres, & I'm short-sighted. I'd count the vapour trails from the engines. Four versus two.

And then there are the little matters of aircraft automatically identifying themselves to ATC, & Putin flying to Moscow over Belarus, deliberately avoiding Ukraine - which the Ukrainians know.

Don't forget the people who think that this was really the plane from MH370 substituted in (because...something). Those are my favorite.

 

[swerve]

...
I doubt a murderous psychopath is responsible for the shoot down. A mistake by perfectly ordinary SAM operators from the rebel side is far more likely. The psychopaths are more likely to be found on the front line, or among the "security" forces on both sides.

Yeah.

The behaviour of some of the rebels guarding the crash site, who one would expect to be told to be good because they'd be on worldwide TV, doesn't inspire confidence. Drunk, meddling with the evidence, posing with possessions of crash victims, etc. The firemen & the civilian volunteers locating & marking bodies & body parts seemed like ordinary decent people, but I'd not want those guards on my side.

 

[Nick underscore]

Yeah.

The behaviour of some of the rebels guarding the crash site, who one would expect to be told to be good because they'd be on worldwide TV, doesn't inspire confidence. Drunk, meddling with the evidence, posing with possessions of crash victims, etc. The firemen & the civilian volunteers locating & marking bodies & body parts seemed like ordinary decent people, but I'd not want those guards on my side.

I have to admit the level of witnessed (TV reporters onsite) looting, is an utter disgrace.. The basic integrity of the crash site isn't being properly maintained and as reported by the OSCE monitors who were to be given some basic access of assessment today, were denied access to one site with warning shots fired by seperatist rebels / guards / thugs (reportedly it was a Cossack unit).

Feanor - are you able to confirm?

Aircraft crash Investigators (assuming they get in) still should have enough onsite. Key will be the CVR and FDR being handed over.. And if so, let's hope it isn't another 8 year wait.

 

[SolarWind]

Right so assuming the rebels fired the missile its everyone's fault, especially the Ukrainians, except the people who fired the missile, unless of course it wasn't the rebels in which case it is entirely the fault of the Ukrainians? Not biased at all are we?

You are reading too much into my argument. I don't reject rebel's responsibility. However, sovereign states should bear at least some responsibility about what goes on within their borders and communicating that information to international flight authorities. The latter part of my argument is just a logical conditional statement involving known facts.

 

[OPSSG]

Right so assuming the rebels fired the missile its everyone's fault, especially the Ukrainians, except the people who fired the missile, unless of course it wasn't the rebels in which case it is entirely the fault of the Ukrainians? Not biased at all are we?

You are reading too much into my argument. I don't reject rebel's responsibility. However, sovereign states should bear at least some responsibility about what goes on within their borders and communicating that information to international flight authorities. The latter part of my argument is just a logical conditional statement involving known facts.

You may want to reconsider your mode of engagement. You will be watched for the quality of your posts from here-on and do not be surprised, if you find source challenges forth coming for any future posts.

 

[SolarWind]

You may want to reconsider your mode of engagement. You will be watched for the quality of your posts from here-on and do not be surprised, if you find source challenges forth coming for any future posts.

I hardly post any sources, and mainly refer to what others here post. And post quality should always be watched for everyone, in my opinion, and without political bias. So I am not exactly sure what you are talking about.

 

[OPSSG]

I hardly post any sources..

I know that and when they are issued, they led to bans.

...post quality should always be watched for everyone, in my opinion...

Agreed.

Good luck with your current approach.

 

[gf0012-aust]

You are reading too much into my argument. I don't reject rebel's responsibility. However, sovereign states should bear at least some responsibility about what goes on within their borders and communicating that information to international flight authorities. The latter part of my argument is just a logical conditional statement involving known facts.

the confusion is that people are assuming that Govts issue NOTAMs - they don't - its issued by that countries Federal/National aviation authority (Brazil being one example of an exception to the rule)

 

[SolarWind]

The costs of this tragedy may have substantially increased. Years if not decades of scientific progress in HIV/AIDS research may have been lost.

Aids conference says 100 researchers may have been on flight MH17 | World news | theguardian.com

As many as 100 of the world’s leading HIV/Aids researchers and advocates may have been on the Malaysia Airlines flight that crashed in Ukraine, in what has been described as a “devastating” blow to efforts to tackle the virus.
...
Clive Aspin, a veteran HIV researcher who attended the pre-conference plenary session in Sydney, told Guardian Australia. “These people were the best and the brightest, the ones who had dedicated their whole careers to fighting this terrible virus. It’s devastating.”
...

Malaysia Airlines MH17 Flight Carried Up To 100 AIDS Researchers - 'The Cure For AIDS Could Have Been On That Plane'
Over 100 AIDS specialists were on plane shot down over Ukraine - World Israel News | Haaretz