Ukranian Crisis

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Volkodav

The Bunker Group
Verified Defense Pro
I agree with SolarWind. Civilian aircraft have no business where people know planes are shot down. Ukrainian air traffic control should have directed aircrafts from there.

That's even assuming rebels are the ones responsible.
"infowars.com / ukraine-air-traffic-controller-suggests-kiev-military-shot-down-passenger-plane"

"colonelcassad.livejournal.com / 1676992.html"

"politikus.ru / events / 24618-smi-ukraina-ranee-perebazirovala-v-rayon-padeniya-malayziyskogo-boeing-divizion-bukov.html"

Don't know how reliable those sources are.
I call BS on this.

This is a tragedy in any terms and attempts to divert blame from those likely responsible by blaming another party, purely on political lines, before the investigation has even begun, is pretty low.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
I call BS on this.

This is a tragedy in any terms and attempts to divert blame from those likely responsible by blaming another party, purely on political lines, before the investigation has even begun, is pretty low.
Low but not surprising. This conflict has been waged most actively in the information sphere where both sides regularly publish lies and misinformation far above and beyond ordinary propaganda.

While I do agree with his point that Ukraine should have directed civilian flights away from the area, they likely didn't believe the rebels had SAMs capable of reaching that high an altitude. And of course one shouldn't expect too much competency from any arm of the Ukrainian government.

Anyways, let's see what the investigation shows up.

Oh and look Putin already blamed Ukraine for the incident. Sometimes it's hard to restrain oneself from bad language.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Ïóòèí íàçâàë êðóøåíèå Boeing ïðåñòóïëåíèåì è âîçëîæèë îòâåòñòâåííîñòü íà Óêðàèíó

Something tells me Ukrainian government is responsible for their airspace as well as for communicating to the International Air Transportation Association whether there are any restrictions there. If Ukraine is not responsible for this airspace, perhaps the International Air Transportation Association needed to ask the rebels instead or alert them about international flights? According to evidence available so far, if the rebels did shoot down this aircraft, they were thinking it was a Ukrainian military transport.
While the error is understandable, the rebels would be at fault. It was dangerous and irresponsible of them to operate SAMs of that class in an area where civilian air traffic is a possibility, without adequate means to confirm identity of the aircraft.

I agree with SolarWind. Civilian aircraft have no business where people know planes are shot down. Ukrainian air traffic control should have directed aircrafts from there.

That's even assuming rebels are the ones responsible.
"infowars.com / ukraine-air-traffic-controller-suggests-kiev-military-shot-down-passenger-plane"

"colonelcassad.livejournal.com / 1676992.html"

"politikus.ru / events / 24618-smi-ukraina-ranee-perebazirovala-v-rayon-padeniya-malayziyskogo-boeing-divizion-bukov.html"

Don't know how reliable those sources are.
Extremely biased sources that require secondary, and, ideally, tertiary confirmation to be taken at face value. Especially colonel cassad. He publishes mountains of info, is heavily biased, and I generally ignore anything he posts unless he provides a source or photos and videos in which case I use them. His main value is the mountains of links he usually posts in his livejournal.
 

the concerned

Active Member
What happened to the Nato awacs surveilence aircraft that where operating nearby.Would they not be able to shed any light on what has gone on.
 

Bolverik

New Member
Extremely biased sources that require secondary, and, ideally, tertiary confirmation to be taken at face value. Especially colonel cassad. He publishes mountains of info, is heavily biased, and I generally ignore anything he posts unless he provides a source or photos and videos in which case I use them. His main value is the mountains of links he usually posts in his livejournal.
While it sounded conspirationally to me too. I did checked some of the facts. MH17 usually don't fly that far north. In fact it was the only time it flew there (in the last 4 month at least). You can check it here: flightaware.com

I also confirmed from other sources that Ukrainian forces did have air defence unit in the area since Wensday.
ria.ru / world / 20140717 / 1016427923.html

Also video on youtube of AN-26 shot down in the same area.
watch?v=x-rbUEfNexQ#t=91

And yes, I am biased. Which does not mean I am wrong.
 

Twain

Active Member
I agree with SolarWind. Civilian aircraft have no business where people know planes are shot down. Ukrainian air traffic control should have directed aircrafts from there.

That's even assuming rebels are the ones responsible.
"infowars.com / ukraine-air-traffic-controller-suggests-kiev-military-shot-down-passenger-plane"

"colonelcassad.livejournal.com / 1676992.html"

"politikus.ru / events / 24618-smi-ukraina-ranee-perebazirovala-v-rayon-padeniya-malayziyskogo-boeing-divizion-bukov.html"

Don't know how reliable those sources are.
infowars is a conspiracy website, it's about as factual as The Onion
 

StobieWan

Super Moderator
Staff member
If you want crazy, check out some of the comments on facebook - including one that states that this is a false flag operation by the US and Israel to justify an attack on Gaza.

I think my IQ just dropped thirty points after contact with that much raw stupidity in one hit.
 

Volkodav

The Bunker Group
Verified Defense Pro
Air disasters, even those involving shoot downs, rarely have a single cause and thorough investigations usually show up multiple failings that led to the loss of life.

Many airlines had taken it on themselves to divert their aircraft around Eastern Ukraine, Malaysia for what ever reason did not.

According to the intercepted communications the rebels, whether they fired the actual missile or not, have been taking pot-shots at anything and everything on the basis they don't have any aircraft so its not one of theirs.

Ukraine does not appear to have control of their own airspace or knowledge of what is happening in it.

No-one, not even the rebels themselves actually seem to know what capabilities and ordinance they have.

The rebels, as evidenced by recent friendly fire incidents do not have control over their own forces.

The rebels, as evidenced by their firing on Ukrainian targets from neutral and possibly even Russian territory have no regard for the rule of law or rules of engagement.

Add to all of this that conflicts such as these tend to attract murderous psychopaths, to all sides, who like to identify themselves as soldiers of fortune or freedom fighters. These scum, infiltrating the local forces and stirring up things to better get their fill of death and suffering, seem to have out done themselves this time.
 

STURM

Well-Known Member
Many airlines had taken it on themselves to divert their aircraft around Eastern Ukraine, Malaysia for what ever reason did not.
Air France, Delta, Lufthansa, Turlish Airlines and Virgin also apparently didn't. There was a minimum altitude that passenger planes were suppose to maintain and acoording to a report I read somewhere the Malaysian plane stuck to that altitude. An FAA warning previously warned U.S. planes to avoid the area.

From personal experience I know that in 2003 Malaysian Airlines System changed its route for flights to the UK due to the invasion of Iraq. Instead of going near Iraq, flights went eastwards over Iran, Turkey, the Caspian Sea, the Ukraine and Russia before cutting across Poland and Germany. Interestingly, according to a pilot I spoke to, even at the height of the civil war between the Northern Alliance and the Talibs, aircraft routinely overflew Afghan airspace. Even northern Iraq it seems is still routinely used by passenger flights.
 
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Vegan-Zombie

New Member
SBU intercepts phone conversations of separatists admitting downing a civilian plane (FULL TRANSCRIPT; VIDEO)

I don't know how accurate this is, considering the propaganda between the two, but an SBU wiretap claims that a Cossack unit downed the jet.

My own personal thought is that I am very skeptical about it, especially about the claim that they found the documents of an Indonesian student going to a "Thompson University". The only Thompson University I know of is in Canada, in BC. I assume that (presumably) the majority of the Indonesians on the flight is coming home for the Muslim holiday of Ramadan and Eid al-Fitr, so I doubt this one person would take a longer flight crossing the Atlantic than the Pacific. Not to say that the rebels aren't guilty, however I find this article completely BS.
 

STURM

Well-Known Member
Who knows? The person might stopped in Holland for any reason, including to get a connecting flight eastwards that may have been cheaper than one flying westwards across the Pacific from British Columbia.
 

Vegan-Zombie

New Member
True, I travel to and from the states to Indonesia on a fairly regular basis each year, and I find that the airlines I usually fly with are often cheaper flying from a Pacific route than an Atlantic one, It was just a personal opinion on the matter however.
 

swerve

Super Moderator
From personal experience I know that in 2003 Malaysian Airlines System changed its route for flights to the UK due to the invasion of Iraq. Instead of going near Iraq, flights went eastwards over Iran, Turkey, the Caspian Sea, the Ukraine and Russia before cutting across Poland and Germany. Interestingly, according to a pilot I spoke to, even at the height of the civil war between the Northern Alliance and the Talibs, aircraft routinely overflew Afghan airspace. Even northern Iraq it seems is still routinely used by passenger flights.
I overflew Afghanistan in the 1980s, when Soviet forces were losing helicopters & some other aircraft to Stingers, & Iran during the Iran-Iraq war. Both were normal routes at the time.

Pakistani or Turkish civil ATC hands over to Iranian ATC. Airliner stays at specified height on specified route, & keeps squawking. Air defences don't bother it. Handed on as it leaves Iran, to Turkish or Pakistani ATC. Everyone knows what's an airliner, & trusts neighbouring ATC. Worked perfectly for nine years.

Would have worked perfectly on routes across the gulf but for one trigger-happy USN captain.

Was working over Ukraine until yesterday. I find the 'blame the airline' tendency disgusting.

MANPADS can't reach airliners staying above 9000 metres. Proper air defences can tell them from enemy combat aircraft, except when they let their emotions take over (Persian Gulf, 1987...). Height, size, route - & published schedules.
 

swerve

Super Moderator
While it sounded conspirationally to me too. I did checked some of the facts. MH17 usually don't fly that far north. In fact it was the only time it flew there (in the last 4 month at least). You can check it here: flightaware.com
It's varied from south of Crimea to as far north as Donetsk. That looks like normal variation to me, depending on winds & the like.

Some lunatics on the Russian side have claimed that it was a Ukrainian attempt to assassinate Putin. It was reported by Interfax & RT This is based on the following:
Putin flew back from Brazil yesterday. En route, his aircraft passed over a waypoint near Warsaw.
The MAS flight passed over the same waypoint.
They were 'at almost the same time'.
Putin's Il-96 looks very similar to a Boeing 777.

What flat stones do these people crawl out from under?
Times: they passed the waypoint 37 minutes apart. That's about 500 km flying, at cruise speed.
Appearance: I could tell 'em apart from the ground when they're at 10000 metres, & I'm short-sighted. I'd count the vapour trails from the engines. Four versus two.

And then there are the little matters of aircraft automatically identifying themselves to ATC, & Putin flying to Moscow over Belarus, deliberately avoiding Ukraine - which the Ukrainians know.
 
And yes, I am biased. Which does not mean I am wrong.
No, but it does mean you're not to be taken as objective. And being openly biased doesn't make you right either.

Clearly more credibility information and evidence will be released to public, hard not too with such a huge tragic loss of life.

Hopefully this is fully pursued by the countries impacted and the culprits (Cossacks, Ukrainians, Pro-Russians or whatever) are "handed over".. Only way forward in my opinion and potentially face saving for many..

Separately, this event compounds current issues and may end the existence of Malaysia airlines sadly
 

wittmanace

Active Member
The american delay in confirming or claiming who fired is perhaps ominous. I wonder whether they will blame Russia directly if it was fired from the neutral zone the rebels have used for rocket fire before.
 

STURM

Well-Known Member
Assuming it was a Buk and that it was operated by people who had no previous experience operating it or similar systems; would I be right in saying that it would have taken quite a while for the crew to gain proficiency?

A few months ago I spoke to someone who's with a Jernas unit. He said that operating the radar, tracker and other bits and bobs that go with it is complicated and takes time to master. Granted the Jernas is not a Buk and is a shorter range system.
 

wittmanace

Active Member
Assuming it was a Buk and that it was operated by people who had no previous experience operating it or similar systems; would I be right in saying that it would have taken quite a while for the crew to gain proficiency?

A few months ago I spoke to someone who's with a Jernas unit. He said that operating the radar, tracker and other bits and bobs that go with it is complicated and takes time to master. Granted the Jernas is not a Buk and is a shorter range system.
One thing I have wondered about is what experience any defectors took with them, too.
 

Twain

Active Member
CNN is reporting that the BUK launcher involved in the shootdown was moved back into Russia overnight. There will be a huge coverup here but (also according to CNN), US intelligence has determined the precise launch point, it's well within rebel held territory.
 

stojo

Member
Assuming it was a Buk and that it was operated by people who had no previous experience operating it or similar systems; would I be right in saying that it would have taken quite a while for the crew to gain proficiency?

A few months ago I spoke to someone who's with a Jernas unit. He said that operating the radar, tracker and other bits and bobs that go with it is complicated and takes time to master. Granted the Jernas is not a Buk and is a shorter range system.
There is no way that the system could be used by "people who had no previous experience", since these are very complex systems, typically some of the most complicated any army operates.

I had a limited training on GIRAFFE radar which is used by Serbian army as target acquisition and guidance radar for battery of Bofors 30 mm guns. I was "trained" as an operator, and I must say it is not something you can learn in two weeks. Hell, conscripts like me, haven't learn much in six months (which was the duration military service, when I was serving). In fact, the radar was operated by professional cadre, officers and NCO-s, and even our training officer was aware of the fact that it is utter bollocks, to think that he could train bunch of nine-teen year old conscripts anything useful in the given time frame.

And that is exactly what is puzzling me in this mess. You simply can not just stumble upon the dozens of people with enough expertise, to operate these systems. They have to be professionals - the question is where did these people come from. Unfortunately, there is only one answer - Russia.

If it gets proven that the rebel BUK was manned by Russian staff, this will be a political disaster for Russians.
 

wittmanace

Active Member
CNN is reporting that the BUK launcher involved in the shootdown was moved back into Russia overnight. There will be a huge coverup here but (also according to CNN), US intelligence has determined the precise launch point, it's well within rebel held territory.
where is here?
 
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