Ukranian Crisis

Strannik · Jun 12, 2014

12.06.2014. Update
From bmpd:
Ukraine halted delivery of 32 new BTR-3E to Thailand. So far There is no decision of what's going to happen to it. One option under consideration to reinforce Ukrainian forces conducting ATO in the East with those BTRs.
"bmpd"."livejournal.com/884871.html"

From Denis Morkushin blog:
Short video depicting burial of rebels in Slavyansk

"twower"."livejournal.com/1326042.html"

A.Avakov Ukrainian minister of internal affairs said that 3 T-72 tonight crossed border from Russian territory into Ukraine. Two tanks were intercepted and engaged nearby "Snejnoe" town. One tank was taken out. Also during the battle one armoured Kamaz was captured.

"twower"."livejournal.com/1326518.html"

"Military informant " publishes interview of TSN's military journalist (Ukrainian) Ruslan Jarmoljuk about battle readiness of different Ukrainian forces. In this interview he said that balk of fighting done by paratroopers. The National Guards are unreliable. In direct confrontation they always start to retreat, leaving paratroopers and Alfa without cover...

"military-informant"."com/index.php/army/5634-1.html"

From Voice of Sevastopol chronicles of the day:
During the night Ukrainian artillery were pounding surrounding of Slavyansk from the "Karachun" heights.

There are unverified information that Ukrainians was using phosphorus ammunition during bombardment of "Semenovka" . The link below has video.

Rebels expropriated two REB complexes on "Topaz" radio-electronic Plant. "Topaz" manufactures "Kolchuga" PVO stations as well as "Mandat-B1E" which purpose is suppression of modern communications devices.

Denise Pushilin leader of Donetsk republic reported that 15 thousands refugee crossed Ukrainian border into Russia.

"voicesevas"."ru/news/yugo-vostok/1625-opolchency-zahvatili-2-kompleksa-radioelektronnoy-zaschity-na-zavode-topaz-v-donecke.html "

RIA-News reports that to the north of Lugansk rebels stopped and engaged 40 tanks strong column of Ukrainian armour near the town "Makarovka" . the fight is under way , there is no further details yet.

"gazeta"."ru/politics/news/2014/06/12/n_6225497.shtml"

Goknub · Jun 13, 2014

Call me crazy but those tanks look like T-64 not T-72.

Note the position of the IR light on the left rather than right as per the T-72.

http://sohanews2.vcmedia.vn/k:2014/2-e2b48/cuoc-cach-mang-xe-tang-mang-ten-t64.jpg

The footage I can find is pretty grainy.

https://www.youtube.com/user/gomontv/videos

Strannik · Jun 13, 2014

Goknub said:
Call me crazy but those tanks look like T-64 not T-72.

Note the position of the IR light on the left rather than right as per the T-72.

Yes looks like you are right. bmpd link that I quoted also talk about T-64 BV. T-72 was mentioned by Ukrainian minister Avakov, probably erroneously.

Strannik · Jun 13, 2014

13.06.2014. Update
Ukrainian minister of internal affair A.Avakov reported that anti-terrorist operation is currently under way in City of Mariupol. According to Avakov operation started today at 4:50 AM. Ukranian forces control key points in the city. Rebels suffered heavy losses Ukrainian forces have only two (2) wounded

"twower"."livejournal.com/1327615.html"

However according to rebels they, rebels, lost up to 12 fighters. More precise data is absent because battle for Mariupol is still raging on. There is no data on precise number of loss by Ukrainian forces, however eyewitnesses reports large number of dead national guards.
According to radio intercept, Ukrainian lost 12 killed and 30 wounded.

"voicesevas"."ru/news/yugo-vostok/1701-hronologiya-sobytiy-na-ukraine-za-13-iyunya-2014.html"

Fresh video taken by Ukrainians depicting Ukrainian national guards in shootout. at 2:40 one can clearly hear two people speaking in English one who speaks with accent takes orders / instructions from native English speaker.
"youtube"."com/watch?v=aenl78NVwIM"

Representative of Peoples Republic Of Lugansk informs that rebels managed to shot down Ukrainian transport plane over Lugansk.
"The plane caught fire and went toward Lugansk airport . Now there is dense black smock cloud could be seen over the airport"
The airport occupied by Ukrainian forces. Rebels maintain blockade around it.
"nsn"."fm/2014/06/13/opolchentsy-lnr-podbili-ukrainskij-transportny-j-samolet/"

Once again, I cannot post links, therefore one would have to remove quotes from my links before use.

Strannik · Jun 14, 2014

14.06.2014 Update
By now everybody aware about rebels shooting down Ukrainian IL-76 with two hand held anti-aircraft complexes at altitude of 700 meters. 40 members of 25 paratroopers brigade from Dnepropetrovsk and 9 crew members killed in the accident.

"twower"."livejournal.com/1328949.html"

Ukrainian army prepares for assault on Lugansk. The fatale flight of IL-76 was part of this preparation. Rebels getting ready for Ukranian assault. All night there were movement s of rebel forces in the city...

"military-informant"."com/index.php/conflicts/5666-1.html"

Igor Strelkov daily portion of information:
Rebel's storm troops group attacked Ukrainian military column. On highway Harkov - Rostov. During the attack two BTR and Kamaz with Ukrainian infantry were burned on the spot. There were no survivors. Rebels had no casualties.
On situation in Mariupol Strelkov has the following to say: " there were only 30-40 armed fighters. And they had to face Alpha specnaz and two battalions of national guards. Most of the fighters had to lay down low for a few days. While Ukrainian forces will be clearing out the town.

"voicesevas"."ru/news/yugo-vostok/1725-igor-strelkov-ob-uspeshnoy-operacii-na-trasse-harkov-rostov.html"

Military Informant reports that column of Ukrainian border guard was ambushed in Mariupol. Eyewitnesses say 5 tracks with border guards from "Berdjansk " town was attacked in result 3 killed 4 wounded. There is no information about casualties between rebels

"military-informant"."com/index.php/conflicts/5663-1.html"

bmpd as quite a few other sources report story about Ukrainian BMP-2 stack on Russian territory during the night on 13.06.2014. Ukrainian crew abandoned the vehicle and run across the border to Ukraine

"bmpd"."livejournal.com/887258.html"

More than 200 officers of Ukrainian space agency were kicked of the service because they did not follow the mobilization order.

"voicesevas"."ru/news/yugo-vostok/1739-bolee-200-oficerov-goskosmicheskogo-agentstva-ukrainy-uvoleny-za-otkaz-ot-mobilizacii.html"

15:10 Rebels report that near town of "Gorlovka " they managed to shoot down Ukrainian SU-24. Pilot survived and was captured by the rebels.

"voicesevas"."ru/news/yugo-vostok/1714-voyna-na-yugo-vostoke-onlayn-14062014-hronika-sobytiy-post-obnovlyaetsya.html"

Strannik · Jun 16, 2014

16.06.2014. Update
Ukrainian nationalist attack Russian embassy in Kiev.

"twower"."livejournal.com/1329998.html"

Three way talk between Russia, EU, and Ukraine about Ukrainian debt for Russian gas and feature gas prices come to nothing. Russia stop gas deliveries for to Ukraine . Details are sketchy. Last Russian offer included $385 per thousand cubic meters guarantied until at least 2019, which is better arrangement than for some European countries.. That is assuming Ukraine would pay at least 1.9 billion dollars US out of 4.5 billion Ukrainian debt. Now both sides are going to Stockholm.

Two Russian journalists working for TV-channel " Zvezda " were freed after two days in captivity. Evgeny Davydov and Nikita Konashenkov were arrested and interrogated by SBU Ukrainian state security service.
"tvzvezda"."ru/news/vstrane_i_mire/content/201406161513-ky39.htm"

Peoples Republic of Lugansk (LNR) declared mobilisation of military specialists: officers, sergeants specialist in air defence, rockets, mobile armour and heavy artillery...
Does this mean that they got their hands on all the relevant gear remains to be seen, but it sounds promising.

"voicesevas"."ru/news/yugo-vostok/1807-v-lnr-obyavlena-mobilizaciya-voennyh-specialistov-vrag-uzhe-u-vorot.html"

Peoples Republic of Donetsk (DNR) took under control National Bank branch for Donetsk region.

"voicesevas"."ru/news/yugo-vostok/1806-opolchenie-dnr-vzyalo-pod-kontrol-kaznacheystvo-nalogovuyu-i-otdelenie-nacbanka.html"

Information from I.Strelkov:
Rebel forces overrun block post near "Krasnjake". Some Ukrainian machinery is burning there.

During the night Ukrainian artillery was pounding northern outskirts of Lugansk.
Ukrainian forces attempted to break through rebel's defence lines between towns of "Schastje" and "Metallist" after heavy fight Ukrainians forces were thrown back toward "Schastje". Both sides suffered losses.

In his Declaration contra-intelligence chief of South East army orders to take no prisoners.

"voicesevas"."ru/news/yugo-vostok/1772-svodka-sobytiy-ot-igorya-strelkova-16062014-obnovlyaetsya.html"

Strannik · Jun 16, 2014

One more interesting piece of information, that I just come across.
Ukrainian president P. Poroshenko said that as of today his peace plan is starting to be enacted. "There will be an offer to stop military confrontation... perhaps even this week... "

"gazeta"."ru/politics/news/2014/06/16/n_6234105.shtml"

That would be very welcome development. However in order to be useful this step would have to be complemented with withdrawal of Ukrainian military from LNR and DNR. Yet road to peace have to start somewhere. So this fresh note from Ukrainian top official sounds very satisfying.

jeffb · Jun 17, 2014

Strannik said:
One more interesting piece of information, that I just come across.
Ukrainian president P. Poroshenko said that as of today his peace plan is starting to be enacted. "There will be an offer to stop military confrontation... perhaps even this week... "

"gazeta"."ru/politics/news/2014/06/16/n_6234105.shtml"

That would be very welcome development. However in order to be useful this step would have to be complemented with withdrawal of Ukrainian military from LNR and DNR. Yet road to peace have to start somewhere. So this fresh note from Ukrainian top official sounds very satisfying.

From the full quotes he was making it clear that ceasefire talks would only happen once Ukraine regains control of its Russian borders. There is no way he going to leave the borders in rebel hands and allow Russia to supply them, even less chance of them recognising these "People's Republics".

Strannik · Jun 17, 2014

I agree. Chances of peace at this point of time are slim.
Poroshenko & Co too focused on military solution, which I think does not exist.

I sought that rare statement about hypothetical peace process feels refreshing, compared to constant flow of statements about necessity to crash decent. This aside, sadly, peace is not any close yet.

Rimasta · Jun 17, 2014

Strannik said:
I agree. Chances of peace at this point of time are slim.
Poroshenko & Co too focused on military solution, which I think does not exist.

Armed conflict, although lamentable, has brought about more change to the world than anything else in human history. Those who can't kill, will always be subject to those that can. Unless Russia steps up its support, the rebels are on borrowed time. The Ukraine has the strategic initiative. I'm not so sure the military route will come to nothing. War doesn't determine who is correct, just who's left standing.

Strannik · Jun 17, 2014

Again I agree, rebels facing overwhelming force. They cannot win. They buying time. If Russia will not provide some meaningful help now. They are doomed. If Russia will provide this help, this very likely would mean war.
I do not know what Russia will do. But it feels like it already has little to lose.

I said there is no military solution for Poroshenko & Co, meaning that such non-solution would involve clearing East of Ukraine from most of the population, which would carry risks that hard to quantify.
Apparently whoever is in charge of Ukraine consider this an acceptable option.

Today Igor Strelkov the Legend of Slavyansk expressed very similar view. And pleaded for Russian help:

"youtube"."com/watch?v=qQWwdAyyMJs"

Strannik · Jun 19, 2014

19.06.2014 Update
Ukrainian MOD reports 17.06.2014. Commanders of battalion of national guards "Aidar" without coordination with the higher command decided to attack rebel held positions in and around City Of Lugansk. Rebels ambushed the battalion near town of "Metalist" while it was on march. "Aidar"'s command requested assistance Ukrainian command sent two operation groups to help the "Aidar". Combined losses of Ukrainian force are 20-30 soldiers and officers killed. Rebels capture several units of mobile armour...

"twower.livejournal.com/1335438.html"

Unrecognised South Ossetia recognised LNR as independent state.

"twower.livejournal.com/1335041.html"

Ukrainian MOD released new "official figures" about losses suffered by Ukrainian forces. From 08.03.2014 to 18.06.2014 Ukrainian forces lost 147 as killed, 267 wounded and 92 traumatised (whatever it means)...

"twower.livejournal.com/1334644.html"

Ukrainian parliament supported law to increase high end of acceptable draft age for military reservists to 60 soldiers and officers and to 65 years for high officers...
"twower.livejournal.com/1334441.html"

During the night on 18.06.2014 near town of "Schastje" ("Happiness") took place fight between forces of "anti terrorist operation" and rebel fighters protecting Lugansk region. According to Ukrainian MOD Ukrainian forces suffered heavy losses. 128th mountain brigade and 80th airmobile regiment lost 11 members plus 3 wounded. 24th battalion lost 4. 13 soldiers are unaccounted for . Most likely also killed...

"military-informant.com/index.php/conflicts/5706-1.html"

Crooks in Wester Ukrainian City of Lvov bout hundreds of counterfeit armoured vests from private company for the Ukrainian army ...

"military-informant.com/index.php/army/5712-1.html"

Ukrainian military sent to Eastern Ukraine T-64BM "Bulat" - the best battle tanks Ukraine can produce. According to available information rebels managed to damage "Bulat" with portable anti-tank guns. However the tank return to base. At the same time other tanks of un-upgraded version of T-64 were permanently disabled by the same very guns...

"military-informant.com/index.php/army/5710-1.html"

Information from Igor Strelkov.
Below I translated his message:

"...Fully mobilised Ukrainian army now switched into offensive everywhere.
Right now heavy fight going on near town of "Jampole" . Ukrainian force there include more than 20 battle-tanks and 50 pieces of other mobile armour, 2 infantry battalions supported by 2 battery of self propelled 122 mm artillery 2C1 "Gvozdika" . Ukrainian use SU-25 to suppress our positions. We managed to repel first morning attack destroying one battle tank in this attack we lost guncrew of the only one SPG-9 "Kopye" (Spear) we had. I order to hold on till dark. However days now become very long and adversary has large reserves. Main problem tanks. we have nothing to fight them with. Step by step they tighten the noose. At the same time up to 30 BTRs entered town "Seversk" The town protected only by one platoon with lighted guns. After the fall of "Seversk" we completely encircled now. News from Lugansk and Donetsk are similar. there are heavy fighting there too...."

"www.youtube.com/watch?v=6_wwEsFaSqQ"
as well as:
"voicesevas.ru/news/yugo-vostok/1884-voyna-na-yugo-vostoke-onlayn-19062014-hronika-sobytiy-post-obnovlyaetsya.html"

rnn · Jun 19, 2014

SolarWind said:
Aside from political matters considering the split, I can say what may happen from the economic stand point. If the eastern and southern Ukraine were to break away, they would likely enter the trade union with Russia. The military-industrial complex in the eastern and southern Ukraine would see investment and orders from Russia, and there would be a significant benefit for workers and the economy as a whole in the breakaway regions. Western and Central Ukraine would on the other hand not see their standards of life increase, unless there was significant foreign investment and subsidies amounting to increases in the agricultural industry capital and technology there.

The problem is political. There are Russians who support Ukraine, and want it to be integrated in the European Union. The agriculture is another problem... as a result of Chernobil, a big part of the country cannot be used for cultivation.

BlueRose · Jun 19, 2014

On a humorous note, someone in the West had bugged and leaked the Belarusian President in a call with a prank caller.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0_66AegCe9I#t=402

rnn · Jun 20, 2014

Yulia Tymoshenko gave a speech is the indepenence square, but she was sitting on a chair for handicapped... Why is that?!

One guy tried to attack her, and another gave her a hug.

Feanor · Jun 20, 2014

I'm back guys. Big update time.

A large battle at the village Metallist has led to one of the biggest government troop defeats in the recent fighting. Ukrainian government claims that a territorial self-defense btln (btln Aydar) disobeyed orders and moved against the Lugansk militia getting ambushed. They requested and received reinforcements, but the reinforcements were routed and defeated. It appears that government losses are quite high, and the territorial defense btln only had ~100 personnel. 2 BTR-80s, 2 BMPs, and 1 T-64B were lost by government troops. The T-64 may have been captured intact by the rebels.

bmpd -

Videos of the captured government fighters from the Aydar btln.

colonelcassad.livejournal.com/1629561.html

Fighting around Slavyansk continues, with Strelkov commenting that the Ukrainian troops retreated when Russian troops moved towards the border. The strange dance continues.

Colonel Cassad -

Another major battle in Lugansk near the village Schastye. Government troops were defeated, lost at least one BTR-80 with dismounts and crew, as well as many other soldiers. It's unclear whether the two battles are related.

bmpd -

The Ukrainian Il-76 downed over Lugansk is one of the 4 flying Il-76s in the Ukrainian airforce. The fact that the rebels managed to shoot it down so quickly is a testament to organized air defenses around the airport. In Donetsk the Ukrainian airforce flew transports into the airport repeatedly, despite heavy fighting in and around the airport. The DNR btln Vostok did not manage to shoot one down.

Then again the whole idea of using airports as forward bases, surrounded by the enemy and supplied by air is not very smart. Especially given the small number of ground-attack assets available, and the low effectiveness of those assets.

bmpd -
bmpd -

An An-30B observation and photo-reconnaissance plane was shot down over Slavyansk using MANPADS. This is a significant event because it limits the Ukrainian airforce's ability to conduct aerial recon. They don't have the UAVs, or the high-altitude assets, and slow and low flying turbo-props make easier targets. There is also an opinion that Ukraine only has a few flyable An-30Bs, making the physical loss a significant one. Note that anothe An-30B was previously damaged by machinegun fire.

bmpd -
bmpd -
bmpd -

Also 3-4 Ukrainian helicopters were hit by AA fire, including MANPADS. However it appears that most were not destroyed, merely damaged and forced to land.

bmpd -
bmpd -

Rebels near Slavyansk counter-attacked Ukrainian troops. They destroyed a checkpoint using the two IMR-2 combat engineed vehicles, burying soldiers alive in trenches. The attack was successful, but the rebels took losses dead and wounded, and one of the IMR-2s was damaged, but the wounded driver managed to get it back to Slavyansk.

Gur Khan attacks!:

Rebels in Donbass managed to grab 3 T-64BV tanks. Ukrainian government sources claim they are T-72s from Russia, but this is blatantly a lie. The tanks likely came from the Artemovsk storage base, 1282nd Storage Center, of the Ukrainian army. This unit has been attacked by rebels repeatedly, in an attempt to gain access to the vehicles.

bmpd -
bmpd -

Rebel btln Vostok has attempted to attack a border guards unit but ran into a well prepared defense, lost vehicles and large numbers of personnel, and retreated. This is yet another disastrous performance from this particular rebel unit.

Interestingly enough the border guards captured a rebel APC, repaired it, and are now using it. Meaning the vehicle has now switched hands twice in the course of the conflict.

bmpd -
Ð”ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ñ ÐœÐ¾ÐºÑ€ÑƒÑˆÐ¸Ð½ - Ð˜ÑÐ¿Ð¾Ð»ÑŒÐ·Ð¾Ð²Ð°Ð½Ð¸Ðµ Ñ‚Ñ€Ð¾Ñ„ÐµÐ¹Ð½Ð¾Ð¹ Ñ‚ÐµÑ…Ð½Ð¸ÐºÐ¸

A Ukrainian T-64B hit by an RPG and small arms fire. The FCS, and other devices are damaged, but the tank seems to be intact.

bmpd -

A Russian customs official was wounded by fire from the Ukrainian side of the border. I wonder how long before the violence begins to spillover in earnest.

Ð”ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ñ ÐœÐ¾ÐºÑ€ÑƒÑˆÐ¸Ð½ - Ð’ Ñ€ÐµÐ·ÑƒÐ»ÑŒÑ‚Ð°Ñ‚Ðµ Ð´ÐµÐ¹ÑÑ‚Ð²Ð¸Ð¹ Ð’Ð¡Ð£ Ñ€Ð°Ð½ÐµÐ½ Ñ€Ð¾ÑÑÐ¸Ð¹ÑÐºÐ¸Ð¹ Ñ‚Ð°Ð¼Ð¾Ð¶ÐµÐ½Ð½Ð¸Ðº

Russia has halted transfer of Navy warships to Ukraine. Not terribly significant. Most of them are basically scrap metal, and most have already been transferred.

bmpd -

An interesting map showing electoral turnout by region, in the recent presidential elections. Says a lot about voter confidence in the electoral process, and underlines that Ukraine is fundamentally not a democracy.

bmpd -

The Ukrainian government has some sort of cease-fire plan that will allow to normalize the situation. However how they intend to do this is unclear. The plan seems to be extremely optimistic and certainly does not provide an answer for what to do with powerful centers of resistance like Slavyansk, Donetsk, and Lugansk.

Ð”ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ñ ÐœÐ¾ÐºÑ€ÑƒÑˆÐ¸Ð½ - ÐŸÑ€ÐµÐºÑ€Ð°Ñ‰ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ðµ Ð¾Ð³Ð½Ñ

The US passes sanctions against the leaders of the DNR and LNR.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: ÑØÀ ðàñïðîñòðàíèëè ñàíêöèè íà ëèäåðîâ Ëóãàíñêîé è Äîíåöêîé "íàðîäíûõ ðåñïóáëèê"

President Poroshenko visits eastern Ukraine.

u_96:

Feanor · Jun 20, 2014

Musashi_kenshin · Jun 21, 2014

Feanor said:
An interesting map showing electoral turnout by region, in the recent presidential elections. Says a lot about voter confidence in the electoral process, and underlines that Ukraine is fundamentally not a democracy.

That's a ridiculous comment. It shows that the rebels were successful in disrupting voter turnout in large parts of eastern Ukraine. That does not change the fact that Ukraine is a democracy, albeit one trying to assert itself over unelected thugs running around and declaring self-rule.

stojo · Jun 21, 2014

I'm back guys. Big update time.

So glad to have you back! We all missed the effort you made.

stojo · Jun 21, 2014

Musashi_kenshin said:
That's a ridiculous comment. It shows that the rebels were successful in disrupting voter turnout in large parts of eastern Ukraine. That does not change the fact that Ukraine is a democracy, albeit one trying to assert itself over unelected thugs running around and declaring self-rule.

Just one note. You where not so furious about "unelected thugs running around" in Kyiv, when this whole mess started.

Ukranian Crisis

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