Ukranian Crisis

[Feanor]

Swerve one more point that occurred to me thinking about this. You mentioned that Ukraine tried to tread lightly on the Crimea issue and lost the province. That's not true. Ukraine attempted to move their military against Russian forces in Crimea. They simply failed to. Two air mobile brigades failed to leave their bases, after being confronted with pro-Russian protesters. In essence it wasn't a desire to not move their troops (towards the end they even ordered their units in Crimea to use lethal force, most of them simply didn't), it was a basic inability to do anything. What it comes down to is that Ukrainian force-wielders are for the most part inept, unwilling, and incapable.

There are some "ex" russian military in there - and the definition of "ex" is somewhat tenuous

there is a clear question of Ukrainian military competence if they are unable to match up against "militia" forces that are often 80% smaller.

however, footage of ukrainian soldiers the other day clearly showed a lack of basic training

The other issue is that the rebellion is capable for a rebellion. The Ukrainian military is incapable for a uniformed military. The rebels are still not capable by general standards. Unwillingness is in many cases a huge issue. Look at some of the events: some rebels show up with crowds of civilians, and military units hand over their weapons and leave. It clearly wasn't a case of military defeat on the part of those units. Look at the second move on Slavyansk. SBU and MVD units attempt to move in, meet some resistance, and refuse to keep advancing without air strikes in support of them. Pilots are routinely refusing to fly missions, and the MoD has moved on to massive cash incentives to get pilots to fly missions against the rebels. There were reports about massive refusals by pilots to fly and rescue a downed pilot. This has less to do with professionalism and a lot more to do with the fact that they simply have no wish to kill their country-men.

 

[Volkodav]

The point that some have alluded to but many seem to be missing is that until a couple of months ago the Ukrainian military was an arm of a pro-Russian Ukrainian government and undoubtedly stacked with pro-Russian officers in key positions. Is it really any surprise whatsoever that the Ukrainian military are proving to be so inept? It is blindingly obvious that their are elements loyal to the previous government who would rather see much of the Ukraine gobbled up by Russia rather than be a sovereign nation aligned with the EU.

That's my tin foil hat theory anyway

 

[Goknub]

That mirrors the advice provided by the Georgians.."only young, pro-Western officers should be promoted to key positions. Ukrainian officers who trained in Russia, Alasania said, should be sidelined or phased out."

More broadly I find Ukraine is an interesting look at the effect of "fighting spirit", for loss of a better term. The effect of mission focus, discipline, identity, equipment and other influences when comparing the Ukrainian forces with their Western counterparts.

As for the situation on the ground, that looks to be spiralling out of even Putin's influence.

 

[KiwiRob]

Agreed - but who are the really bad guys in this? There are certainly some nasty sods in the west, but they weren't doing much in the east until Putin weighed in with his land grab in Crimea & massing Russian troops near the border.

This all really goes back to the fall of the Soviet Union, this mess in Ukraine has been on a slow simmer since then, it was bound to come to the boil at some point in time.

From the people I know in Crimea most never wanted to be Ukranian, they were never given the choice, when given the choice they jumped at being part of Russia again, if they had been given the choice back in 91 you would have the same answer as you have today, we'd rather be Russian, the same choice should have been given to Eastern Ukranians, do you want to Russian or Ukranian?

If given the choice I'd much rather live in Russia than Ukraine. All this talk about territorial intergrity is just a load of crap, IMO the main reason why Europeans are worried is due to a fairly large number of countries which have the possibilty of fragmenting, Scotland from the UK, Veneto from Italy, Belgium split in two, the Basque country from Spain/France, are the main ones, there are numerous other movements. So for Europe there is a lot riding on the outcome of this mess.

 

[KiwiRob]

I think extremely tenuous actually




It's rather interesting that people keep pointing out how incompetent the Ukranian military is and yet they claim the extremely competent eastern militias are made up of ex Ukranian military. That just doesn't pass the smell test.

It all depends on what you are fighting for, if you're some conscripted kid from Western Ukrain who has been pulled away from his Xbox to fight against someone in the East who is fighting for their home what do you expect? One isn't motivated and has no interest in the fight and the other has, that would easily make up the difference IMO.

 

[Musashi_kenshin]

If given the choice I'd much rather live in Russia than Ukraine.

I would prefer to live in Ukraine. Not because I think living standards are better there but because I have a choice about who to vote for - and there's some hope things might improve in the future. I do not like the idea of living in a country where you have to have a camera on the front of your car because the police will beat the crap out of you because you won't pay a "fine", especially a country where the media are so eager to pander to the government, there are plans afoot to censor the internet and anyone who vocally opposes Putin is thrown in jail on the flimsiest of pretexts.

It isn't too surprising that many Ukrainians with strong links to Russia prefer Putin. He's promising them easy answers to difficult problems. They were used to life in the Soviet Union, where you did what you were told and got on with it. They didn't feel like the Poles who were occupied after WWII and forced to accept a puppet Communist government. So if times are hard, they will look back with nostalgia for a time when others made all the big decisions for them and they only had to think about the simple stuff.

 

[Musashi_kenshin]

It would be strange if Putin had the interests of Ukraine in mind. After all which country is he the president of?

A sane President of Russia would see a stable, thriving Ukraine as a good thing for Russia. But because Putin is so paranoid (really needs to see a shrink) he thinks stable democracies bordering Russia are a threat - probably because it would undermine his propaganda that Russia can only be great if he's President for life.

Feanor, I think you have to accept that the rebels are in the wrong here. They claim they're defending the interests of eastern Ukraine, but they have claimed they will "boycott" the presidential election - i.e. restrain locals from choosing whether or not to vote in it. A page or two ago you were asked why this would be. The answer is that they don't think a slavish pro-Russian has any chance of winning and want to avoid a new president

That is not democracy. You can't try to stop a majority of people electing someone you don't like. It is also highly hypocritical to decry a provisional government as lacking legitimacy and then trying to stop a new, directly-elected leader being selected. But then I doubt these rebels actually believe in democracy anyway.

 

[Feanor]

The point that some have alluded to but many seem to be missing is that until a couple of months ago the Ukrainian military was an arm of a pro-Russian Ukrainian government and undoubtedly stacked with pro-Russian officers in key positions. Is it really any surprise whatsoever that the Ukrainian military are proving to be so inept? It is blindingly obvious that their are elements loyal to the previous government who would rather see much of the Ukraine gobbled up by Russia rather than be a sovereign nation aligned with the EU.

That's my tin foil hat theory anyway

Well yes but during the last presidency, Yuschenko, the military was the arm of a pro-Western Ukrainian government. I think that the Ukrainian military is definitely stacked and infiltrated, but not so much because of the Yanukovich government. It's primarily because Ukrainian state security services are in shambles.

A sane President of Russia would see a stable, thriving Ukraine as a good thing for Russia. But because Putin is so paranoid (really needs to see a shrink) he thinks stable democracies bordering Russia are a threat - probably because it would undermine his propaganda that Russia can only be great if he's President for life.

Interesting. If Putin is afraid of stable democracies then Ukraine would be very low on the threat priority. It was neither stable nor particularly democratic prior to this. If stable democracies are the problem, then the top threats on Russia's borders would be the Baltic states and Finland. Instead the countries Russia has dealt with most aggressively are Georgia and Ukraine. Neither particularly stable or democratic.

I think the reality is that Putin is trying to "catch fish in murky waters" so to speak. He is acting against countries that are unfriendly to Russia and give him the opportunity to act.

Feanor, I think you have to accept that the rebels are in the wrong here. They claim they're defending the interests of eastern Ukraine, but they have claimed they will "boycott" the presidential election - i.e. restrain locals from choosing whether or not to vote in it. A page or two ago you were asked why this would be. The answer is that they don't think a slavish pro-Russian has any chance of winning and want to avoid a new president

They claim a lot of things. Like I have said the rebels are not centrally coordinated. Their strongest position, the unifying factor, is their lack of faith and trust in a pro-Western Ukrainian government in Kiev. Their boycott of the elections comes from their perception that they are in the minority.

That is not democracy. You can't try to stop a majority of people electing someone you don't like. It is also highly hypocritical to decry a provisional government as lacking legitimacy and then trying to stop a new, directly-elected leader being selected. But then I doubt these rebels actually believe in democracy anyway.

Their answer would be that they tried democracy, they elected Yanukovich, and look what it got them.

My answer is that the very concept of democracy is more then a little vague. If you mean they're not in favor of a western-style liberal government then you're probably right.

 

[KiwiRob]

I would prefer to live in Ukraine. Not because I think living standards are better there but because I have a choice about who to vote for - and there's some hope things might improve in the future. I do not like the idea of living in a country where you have to have a camera on the front of your car because the police will beat the crap out of you because you won't pay a "fine", especially a country where the media are so eager to pander to the government, there are plans afoot to censor the internet and anyone who vocally opposes Putin is thrown in jail on the flimsiest of pretexts.

Russia isn't Azerbaijan where the election results are announced before the election, not everyone voted for Putin, Russia isn't a dictatorship.

If you don't want to have a camera in your car then don't live in Ukraine either, btw it's not for the police it for all the idiots who try to scam you. I've been stopped for speeding in Russia a few times, the fine is piss all, so no biggie, and no different from what you get in Ukraine.

In my business dealings in both countries I've never had a Russian as upfront for a backhander, whereas in Ukraine it's pretty much the first question you get.

 

[Feanor]

Updates.

The rebels in the east declare independence based on the referendum. Turnout at the referendum was not non-existent, but to be clear, they have not managed to conduct the referendum across the entire territory they represent. The significance is that large numbers of people did turn out.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Ñåïàðàòèñòû Äîíåöêîé è Ëóãàíñêîé îáëàñòåé îáúÿâèëè î íåçàâèñèìîñòè îò Óêðàèíû
Colonel Cassad -
Colonel Cassad -
Colonel Cassad -
Colonel Cassad -
*

Fighting around Slavyansk is continuing. Rebels have counter-attacked government positions around the city, using their 2S9 mortar as well as grenade launchers. Government forces have also used artillery against the rebels.

u_96:
*
u_96:
jerry24_it:
jerry24_it:

In Mariupol' it looks like the BRDM-2 the rebels captured works too.

jerry24_it:

Also Mariupol', btln Dnepr arrives in Mariupol'.

jerry24_it:

In Dimitrov a local was shot and wounded by National Guard units driving by, when a group of locals tried to ask where this unit was going.

jerry24_it:

In Zhitomir ~100 Ukrainian conscripts deserted. Also 3 soldiers (sergeants) deserted in Odessa with their weapons.

Ð’ ЖитомирÑкой облаÑти из двух войÑковых чаÑтей Ñбежали Ñто Ñолдат
Ð’ вооруженных Ñилах Украины зафикÑированы Ñлучаи дезертирÑтва Ñолдат

Ukrainian MiG-29s are leaving Crimea, in pieces. They will get trucked out.

УкраинÑкие иÑтребители МиГ-29 покидают Крым на автомобилÑÑ…

A Russian BPK is getting repaired in Sevastopol'. It looks like Russian defense orders are coming to Crimea.

http://eagle-rost.livejournal.com/163445.html

The EU is passing additional sanctions against Russia.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Åâðîñîþç îäîáðèë ðàñøèðåíèå ñàíêöèé ïðîòèâ ÐÔ íà äâå êîìïàíèè è åùå 13 ðîññèÿí

 

[Musashi_kenshin]

Instead the countries Russia has dealt with most aggressively are Georgia and Ukraine. Neither particularly stable or democratic.

But both had the opportunity to become more stable and democratic, whilst being relatively weak - so he had the chance to do something about it. Finland has a modern military and the Baltic states are in NATO.

They claim a lot of things. Like I have said the rebels are not centrally coordinated.

Can you quote any rebel leader saying he will support the election?

Their answer would be that they tried democracy, they elected Yanukovich, and look what it got them.

They didn't seem to have any problem with him. It all suddenly kicked off after he was impeached, fled the country, new elections scheduled and the Crimean annexation.

My answer is that the very concept of democracy is more then a little vague.

Not really. Democracy is vague in the eyes of people that don't like the concept of people they don't like winning. So they try to justify fixing the system by redefining the term. Much like some religious extremists try to claim forcing women to cover their heads and faces is an act of women's lib because it "frees" them from unwanted male attention.

Russia isn't a dictatorship.

It has many aspects of one. Putin has set the system up to make it virtually impossible for anyone other than him to win. Many people are scared to stand against him or back his opponents. Those that have the courage to do so are persecuted.

At least Ukraine has had actual transfers of power from one political group to another and has proper term limits for the Presidency.

 

[Feanor]

But both had the opportunity to become more stable and democratic, whilst being relatively weak - so he had the chance to do something about it. Finland has a modern military and the Baltic states are in NATO.

Hmm? 4 different presidents in Ukraine. All had the opportunity to become stable and democratic. None did. Suddenly a new government in Ukraine seizes power. One that's less democratic and less stable. And NOW you think Putin is afraid that Ukraine will suddenly turn into a liberal democracy?

Can you quote any rebel leader saying he will support the election?

No. And I doubt any of them would. But the rebel leaders and the population itself are two different things. Remember there is your ordinary anti-Maydan. There are armed people who generally participate but are under to direct command. Then there is the People's Militia of Donetsk. These are different groups, with various partially overlapping leaders, multiple or vague allegiances.

They didn't seem to have any problem with him. It all suddenly kicked off after he was impeached, fled the country, new elections scheduled and the Crimean annexation.

You got that a little backwards. First you had revolutionaries seize power, and Yanukovich fleeing the capital, while armed activists took the government quarter. Then you had impeachment and fleeing the country. Was he impeached accurately and correctly, i.e. as a matter of law? Would he have been impeached had they never seized the government quarter?

Not really. Democracy is vague in the eyes of people that don't like the concept of people they don't like winning. So they try to justify fixing the system by redefining the term. Much like some religious extremists try to claim forcing women to cover their heads and faces is an act of women's lib because it "frees" them from unwanted male attention.

Please. Academics have been trying to define democracy for a very long time. They still can't. There are plenty of working definitions, but as it is democracy remains undefined. What is democracy in one place is different from what it is in another.

It has many aspects of one. Putin has set the system up to make it virtually impossible for anyone other than him to win. Many people are scared to stand against him or back his opponents. Those that have the courage to do so are persecuted.

Authoritarianism and dictatorship are not quite the same. Actually dictatorship is an almost non-sense term, since no modern country can actually be run by dictate.

At least Ukraine has had actual transfers of power from one political group to another and has proper term limits for the Presidency.

The result is that each government gets to blame the last one for what happens, and then proceeds to do nothing productive. Is that democracy?

Look I think I'm going to shut down the political side of this. We can continue it in off-topic subforum or via pm's, since it is an interesting subject, and certainly there are things to discuss. But lets keep this thread specifically about the crisis in Ukraine.

 

[....]

Does Ukraine even have an actual armed forces left? Seems like it is just poorly trained national guard/ militias who are sent into urban areas with loaded guns and a large group of people who are angry at them. I'm surprised more people haven't been killed to be honest.

 

[BlueRose]

Does Ukraine even have an actual armed forces left? Seems like it is just poorly trained national guard/ militias who are sent into urban areas with loaded guns and a large group of people who are angry at them. I'm surprised more people haven't been killed to be honest.

They have the right sector, which a lot of them have paramilitary training. As for the actual armed forces, they are hardly efficient. Though, they are hiring more mercenaries day by day. They are putting those IMF funds to use instead of paying the Gas bill.
http://rt.com/news/158212-academi-blackwater-ukraine-military/

 

[dprijadi]

Feanor

i agree with you on leaving political discussion to another thread, please stay with the current sitrep on ukraine , very much appreciated.

BTW

Whats your opinion on these ?

- The Bild (german) news info about FBI / CIA involvement in Kiev and news about involvement of Mercenaries helping Kiev ? How accurate are these news ? some rumor said these were leaked by german intelligence to the german media.

- the (rumored) use of poland as some kind of training ground for the maidan protester ? i think this is from russian sources but i forgot the links. is this have any substance or just pure BS ?

 

[Feanor]

Does Ukraine even have an actual armed forces left? Seems like it is just poorly trained national guard/ militias who are sent into urban areas with loaded guns and a large group of people who are angry at them. I'm surprised more people haven't been killed to be honest.

Yes. Ukraine has a standing army and they are using the standing army. Prime example, the 72nd Mech Brigade has checkpoints around Mariupol'. Chances are they had to send in National Guard forces because the army refused to enter the city.

- The Bild (german) news info about FBI / CIA involvement in Kiev and news about involvement of Mercenaries helping Kiev ? How accurate are these news ? some rumor said these were leaked by german intelligence to the german media.

There may be foreign instructors involved with the Ukrainian force wielders.

- the (rumored) use of poland as some kind of training ground for the maidan protester ? i think this is from russian sources but i forgot the links. is this have any substance or just pure BS ?

I don't know anything about this. There was plenty of western involvement with the euro-Maydan, but I don't know much about the details.

 

[dprijadi]

There may be foreign instructors involved with the Ukrainian force wielders.

.

Dear Feanor

Thanks for the reply. here is an interesting quote from interview transcript "Questions & Answers with Andrei Fursov ( Poznavatelnoe TV, Apr 26 2014).. some very sobering observation about mercenaries especially the last part of the quote

During the Suez Crisis of 1956, Khrushchev informed the Anglo-French and Israelis that the Soviet Union will not get involved, unless, of course, someone is threatening to use nuclear weapons. However, he did say: “We cannot guarantee that there won’t be tens of thousands of volunteers who come to save their fellow Arabs. As a state we won’t be doing anything. They will be volunteers.”

There are all kinds of possibilities. I know people who fought in Serbia. It’s clear that, at this stage at least, NATO troops will not launch a military aggression. The war will be fought using private armies. There are always ways to respond to private armies. The main thing, in case of a clash with mercenaries, is to apply a very strict rule: No prisoners will be taken.

 

[Musashi_kenshin]

No. And I doubt any of them would. But the rebel leaders and the population itself are two different things.

It is the rebel leaders who are calling the shots. They appoint the electoral "commissions" and the "officials" who make things happen. Doesn't matter what the people want that much.

Look I think I'm going to shut down the political side of this.

Ok, but I would have said a fair bit more, so for the record unanswered comments of yours are not things I can't argue with.

 

[Feanor]

Ok, but I would have said a fair bit more, so for the record unanswered comments of yours are not things I can't argue with.

Absolutely. I'm sorry about the way that post came out. I typed up the reply to your points, and then realized that the direction this would take the thread was a bad one. It was not my intention to make it look like you have no reply. In fact the discussion is interesting, and if you'd like to continue lets do it in off-topic or via pm's. I'm interested to read your replies.

For the future, this is to everyone. I have an opinion and I have a position on this conflict. I have been and will do my best to provide you guys with as much factual information as I can and filter out my own bias as much as possible. Please keep in mind this is a thread, not a newspaper. Meaning that if you want to, you can and are welcome to contribute both in terms of information and your own personal input. So feel free. After all I have a limited amount of time in which to search for information.

Dear Feanor

Thanks for the reply. here is an interesting quote from interview transcript "Questions & Answers with Andrei Fursov ( Poznavatelnoe TV, Apr 26 2014).. some very sobering observation about mercenaries especially the last part of the quote

I've seen that quote before. My main problem is the lack of concrete evidence. It appears that there is some sort of foreign private contractor presence. However it's hard to ascertain the nature of their presence or the nature of their activities. Which is why I strongly suspect they're little more then instructors. There have been mentions of new methods of training. There has also been repeated mentions of english-speaking uniformed men among the government troops. These reports have come from different places, and from different sources. However photos are very few and extremely grainy. They don't appear to show much of anything definite. So I really don't know.

As for prisoners. So far prisoners are being taken, are being treated as they would normally be treated, and are being even exchanged, in at least one incident. So it appears that he's wrong on that issue.

 

[Feanor]

Updates.

A video from Konstantinovka, near Slavyansk. Note the lack of rebel militia, a few barricades, some battle damage, but mostly business as usual at the local police station.

[nomedia="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gYlGu-ULUmU#t=77"]КраÑноармейÑкий горотдел милиции и иÑполком 12 Ð¼Ð°Ñ - YouTube[/nomedia]


The Donetsk People's Republic denies that Strelkov seized power, despite rumors that circulated earlier.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com ::  ðóêîâîäñòâå ÄÍÐ îïðîâåðãëè ñëóõè î ðàñêîëå è çàõâàòå âëàñòè ëèäåðîì îïîë÷åíöåâ ïî ïðîçâèùó Ñòðåëîê

Donetsk and Lugansk intend to gold talks about unifying into a single entity. Meanwhile Donetsk has requested to be part of Russia. However Russia has replied that at this time that question is not on the table.

Ð”ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ñ ÐœÐ¾ÐºÑ€ÑƒÑˆÐ¸Ð½ - ПоÑыпалаÑÑŒ
Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Ðîññèÿ íå ñïåøèò ïðèñîåäèíÿòü Äîíáàññ, êðîâîïðîëèòèå íà þãî-âîñòîêå Óêðàèíû ïðîäîëæèòñÿ, âûÿñíèëà ïðåññà
http://vz.ru/world/2014/5/12/686390.html

Ukrainian forcewielders confirm that there were poisonous chemicals found in the Trade Union building in Odessa. The official death toll in Odessa stands at 48 dead and 99 wounded.

УкраинÑкие Ñиловики подтвердила наличие Ñдовитого вещеÑтва в оÐÑÑком Доме профÑоюзов

The OSCE has some sort of roadmap for de-escalating the crisis in Ukraine that has been approved by Kremlin and Kiev.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Ãëàâà ÎÁÑÅ çàÿâèë î íà÷àëå ðåàëèçàöèè "äîðîæíîé êàðòû" ïî Óêðàèíå - åå îäîáðèëè ÐÔ, ÑØÀ, ÅÑ è Êèåâ