Ukranian Crisis

[overlander]

«

There is an interesting interview with one of Ukraines NG battalion commanders.
My russian or english is not very good, but I will try to translate as much as I can. Maybe Feanor can provide more accurate translation.

What he is saying that anti- Ukraine sentiment in civilians were artificially cultivated by local politicians from former presidents Yanukovics party. He says that most of the separatists are just criminals who are controled by people who saw an opportunity to grab a piece for them selves from a weakened Ukraine. And that there is only a small part of Russian direct involvement in the East of Ukraine and that he believes there will be no invasion by Russia.
When asked about why Ukrainian armed forces performs so poorly he says that his battalion have enough forces to deal with the separatists, bu they lack the right equipment and training for urban combat, that's why all he can do for now is to drive vehicles thru city's to show presence.
He says that there are paid provocateurs who drive around region and scares people by telling them that Ukrainian army and Right Sector is coming to kill everyone so they must set up road blocks.
He also tells that local law enforcement is corrupt, demoralized and can not be trusted. He mentions that on one instance when his battalion where besieged by separatist protesters he asked local law enforcement for help but they did nothing and were just waiting for someone to get shot, so he had to call in helicopter gunships to scare off crowds.
He also mentions incompetence and lack of orders from his superiors. In one case in Lugansk military police fortified local administration building and fought off separatists, but then were ordered out of the city, so separatists took the building anyway.
He also says that there is no central government right now. There is a network of Ukrainian patriots consisting of some members of government, MPs, military, SBU and volunteers. And there is a network of bad guys consisting of the same ingredients.
He also mentions that its possible that Ukraine will lose these regions.

The people in eastern Ukraine they were not separatist at all , it has been the genocide made by ukrainian regular and para military forces sended by the government of Ukraine, killing civilians people the reason that have made they decide to support the independence from Ukraine.

It,s a genocide supported by western governments, nothing new as they supported the same in Irak, Serbia , Kosovo etc, this is the kind of "democracy" the western wants, the "democracy" of the guns.

Another video of the killings by ukrainian para military units fron right sector sended by the Kiev government shootings to unarmed civilians today

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W4joK6D_-Wc

 

[gf0012-aust]

It,s a genocide supported by western governments, nothing new as they supported the same in Irak, Serbia , Kosovo etc, this is the kind of "democracy" the western wants, the "democracy" of the guns.

what absolute rot. The Bosnians weren't killing themselves

pull your head or you won't be on here for long

 

[overlander]

what absolute rot. The Bosnians weren't killing themselves

pull your head or you won't be on here for long

Do you have some comments about the videos? , thanks sir.

 

[nkvd]

It,s a genocide supported by western governments, nothing new as they supported the same in Irak, Serbia , Kosovo etc, this is the kind of "democracy" the western wants, the "democracy" of the guns.

You honestly think the US,UK ,France ,Germany and Italy(western powers) would sit around a table and plot genocides around the world.I don`t think Dmytro Yarosh would even dare to dream about genocide.And yes we have seen the videos but the claims about genocide have been only from you

 

[chris]

Do you have some comments about the videos? , thanks sir.

Actually, if you think about it, it is really sad and depressing. Most of them know what is going on, they just try to hang on to what they think they believe. It's really sad...

 

[overlander]

You honestly think the US,UK ,France ,Germany and Italy(weparty, p,fase read powers) would sit around a table and plot genocides around the world.I don`t think Dmytro Yarosh would even dare to dream about genocide.And yes we have seen the videos but the claims about genocide have been only from you

The current government of Ukraine has some ministers who are members of the sbovoda party, please read the definitión of sbovoda in the wikipedia , maybe wikipedia is pro russian toó.

http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Svoboda_(political_party)

Do you think is normal that western powers supports a government with members of this party in the Ukrainian government?

 

[Rimasta]

The current government of Ukraine has some ministers who are members of the sbovoda party, please read the definitión of sbovoda in the wikipedia , maybe wikipedia is pro russian toó.

http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Svoboda_(political_party)

Do you think is normal that western powers supports a government with members of this party in the Ukrainian government?

I read the Wikipedia article and it clearly states that where the party stands is a matter of debate between scholars and journalists. It goes on to say that they are a nationalist movement, not a fascist or antisemitic movement. It's an interesting article, perhaps you should read it as well. I would also point out, nationalism is on the rise world wide, including in Russia. United Russia is considered to be "the party of power" and they seem to have a very nationalist tone. The reintroduction of Czarist symbolism and the return of the Soviet national anthem are a couple examples. Also, Moscow does not seem willing to let it former Republics drift from its sphere of influence, like Chechnya and Georgia. With that said, why would Ukraine let the Donbas go without a fight? Did Russia let Grozny go quietly? I'm not saying the Gvm't in Kiev is a bunch of saints, but by their actions, they seem to be taking plays out of a Russian play book.

 

[BlueRose]

I read the Wikipedia article and it clearly states that where the party stands is a matter of debate between scholars and journalists. It goes on to say that they are a nationalist movement, not a fascist or antisemitic movement. It's an interesting article, perhaps you should read it as well. I would also point out, nationalism is on the rise world wide, including in Russia. United Russia is considered to be "the party of power" and they seem to have a very nationalist tone. The reintroduction of Czarist symbolism and the return of the Soviet national anthem are a couple examples. Also, Moscow does not seem willing to let it former Republics drift from its sphere of influence, like Chechnya and Georgia. With that said, why would Ukraine let the Donbas go without a fight? Did Russia let Grozny go quietly? I'm not saying the Gvm't in Kiev is a bunch of saints, but by their actions, they seem to be taking plays out of a Russian play book.

Svoboda has plenty of Neo Nazis and other Anti Semitic elements. It's no big secret, as displayed in Feanor's posts. Sasha Beliy being one of them, he was killed off, but those elements are rather evident. Also the recent massacre at Odessa showed indiscriminate killings. I have yet to see this from the Pro Russian side. I do wish for both sides to stand down, brother shouldn't kill brother.. Unfortunately this will probably continue.

 

[BlueRose]

On another note, I've been hearing reports that some 400 U.S. mercenaries are on the ground in Ukraine; groups like Academi(Blackwater) have supposedly been spotted in large numbers, even taking part in the recent operations. Anyone have confirmation of this?

 

[swerve]

Sorry for the double post, but I felt the need to separate this. Swerve consider this. The longer this conflict continues, the more bystanders and innocents will be killed, predominantly by government troops (they're better armed, and have heavy weapons). The more places troops show up, the more locals will get angry. As this drags on the stupidity and incompetence of the Ukrainian government will turn more and more of the population against them. So the longer the rebels can drag this out, the bigger their support base gets...

Agreed - but who are the really bad guys in this? There are certainly some nasty sods in the west, but they weren't doing much in the east until Putin weighed in with his land grab in Crimea & massing Russian troops near the border. What choice did the government in Kiev have then? Do nothing, & embolden separatists? Or mobilise & provoke them? Neither was good. Essentially, it's tried both in turn. Avoiding provocation resulted in the loss of Crimea, & the separatists were emboldened anyway, by that. Failing to react to the mess being created by separatists in the east would have encouraged them to do more. It was damned whatever it did.

It's handled the situation very poorly, but it had such a weak hand, largely (though not entirely - the general corruption of Ukrainian politics is another major factor thanks to Putin, that I doubt anything it did could have resulted in a much better situation.

It looks to me as if the chief mischief-maker is in Moscow. If he'd confined himself to demanding that the government in Kiev give due weight to the concerns of east Ukrainians, rein in the extremists, make sure the presidential election is free & fair (offering Russian observers to work alongside those from other countries), & hold new elections for the Rada & regional bodies as soon as the constitution allows, how different would the situation be now?

Instead, he's stirred things up. His influence has been very negative.

What that poor bloody country needs is peace & calm. The far right in the west, & the separatists in the east, are facets of the same problem: the corruption of the body politic, exemplified by but not confined to Yanukovich & his cronies. Both need to be restrained, but Putin has encouraged one lot.

 

[Feanor]

Updates.

Kiev says the counter-terrorist operation will continue.

УкраинÑкие СМИ Ñообщают о возобновлении активной фазы Ñпецоперации на ДонбаÑÑе

Battalion Dnepr has just entered the town of Krasnoarmeysk. An ugly shooting incident ensued. Angry locals surrounded the troops, one of them pushed a soldier who then shot the man in the head killing him. After this the Dnepr personnel fled the city, firing into the crowd.

According to the sources Dnepr is an MVD batallion. but Dnepr is the name of the Right Sector battalion formed in Dnepropetrovsk to fight against the rebels. Did a Right Sector formation just become part of the MVD? Also note the way they are dressed. They don't look like National Guard units. They don't look like professional military. They look like a rag tag militia. They actually look similar to the National Guard that were in Mariupol' which is disturbing because it means that the new National Guard doesn't wear uniforms, or insignia and just looks like armed men in random military-style clothing.

Спецбатальон МВД Украины "Днепр" блокирует проведение референдума КраÑноармейÑке
http://newsru.com/world/11may2014/krasnostrel.html
u_96:
ЯндекÑ.Фотки

Last night there was a firefight on the outskirts of Slavyansk. The government forces were pushed back from the vicinities of Mountain Karachun. Government forces have used mortars and heavy machineguns to fire into the city.

u_96:
u_96:
jerry24_it:
jerry24_it:
u_96:

A report of D-30 howitzers near Slavyansk.

summer56 -

Videos of the rebel BTR-70 in Mairupol'.

u_96:

More photos out of Mariupol'. The abandoned MVD unit is on fire. Apparently the rag tag volunteers that were there recently were actually National Guard service members. Who didn't bother to wear matching camouflage, or rank, or even to identify themselves.

jerry24_it:
jerry24_it:
ÐÐ°Ñ†Ð³Ð²Ð°Ñ€Ð´Ð¸Ñ Ð£ÐºÑ€Ð°Ð¸Ð½Ñ‹ признала факт отÑтупление из МариуполÑ

Photos out of Donbass in general.

u_96:

Ukrainian authorities state that they have found RPG-26 produced in 1993 used by rebels, that are from outside the country. If correct this would be our confirmation of foreign weapons making it into the conflict.

Минобороны Украины заÑвлÑÑŽÑ‚ о завезенном в Ñтрану из-за границы оружие

The referendum has "begun" in Donetsk and Lugansk.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Íåïðèçíàííûå ðåôåðåíäóìû î ñòàòóñå ðåãèîíîâ ïðîõîäÿò â Äîíåöêîé è Ëóãàíñêîé îáëàñòÿõ Óêðàèíû

There are reports from the acting governor of Lugansk that "only old people who want a totalitarian state are voting in this referendum".

http://newsru.com/world/11may2014/verigina.html

The US blames the events in Mariupol' on the Donetsk rebels. The ones who didn't actually make it to the city...

 

 

[Feanor]

Agreed - but who are the really bad guys in this? There are certainly some nasty sods in the west, but they weren't doing much in the east until Putin weighed in with his land grab in Crimea & massing Russian troops near the border. What choice did the government in Kiev have then? Do nothing, & embolden separatists? Or mobilise & provoke them? Neither was good. Essentially, it's tried both in turn. Avoiding provocation resulted in the loss of Crimea, & the separatists were emboldened anyway, by that. Failing to react to the mess being created by separatists in the east would have encouraged them to do more. It was damned whatever it did.

I'm not so sure. I think the loss of Crimea would not have been prevented by mobilizing. Nor did Ukraine have the time or the ability to mobilize in a timely manner. Even now to mobilize Ukraine has to send police around to people's houses, with threats of jail time. Nor were there any real separatists at the time of the mess in Crimea. Even now calling them separatists isn't very accurate. Their primary position is anti-Kiev. Essentially in the short term the majority could probably be appeased with a blatantly pro-Russian president in Kiev, without any factual change. The deeper problem is that Ukraine is, has been, and will remain, a total mess. This goes to everything, from the economy to the state of the government. And this will continue to foster resentment towards Kiev.

It's handled the situation very poorly, but it had such a weak hand, largely (though not entirely - the general corruption of Ukrainian politics is another major factor thanks to Putin, that I doubt anything it did could have resulted in a much better situation.

Well the better thing would have been for Right Sector and Svoboda not to storm the government quarter in late February, after the agreement had been reached on February 21st. But you know... Or even better for the euro-Maydan to have initially excluded those two groups and their affiliates from participation instead of welcoming them with open arms and putting them on center stage. Honestly even after the take over the best move would have been to use Kiev Alpha SBU, and MVD Jaguar and Omega units to quickly and decisively round up and disarm Right Sector and Svoboda militias, and then make a public statement denouncing them and their tactics. But it's kind of hard to do that when the Minister of the MVD is a Svoboda member...

That kind of move would have quickly tossed out any accusations of fascism. It also would have significantly weakened Putin's hand. Finally they should have made it blatantly clear that ALL they intend to do is run things as quietly as possible, while elections come around. Instead they did the exact opposite.

It looks to me as if the chief mischief-maker is in Moscow. If he'd confined himself to demanding that the government in Kiev give due weight to the concerns of east Ukrainians, rein in the extremists, make sure the presidential election is free & fair (offering Russian observers to work alongside those from other countries), & hold new elections for the Rada & regional bodies as soon as the constitution allows, how different would the situation be now?

Come on. Putin is a known quantity and his behavior here was forseeable. We may not like him (personally I'd love to see him hang) but Kiev could have done much better. Ukraine is an independent country, and Ukrainian politicians need to take responsibility for running it instead of constantly blaming everything on Moscow, while themselves doing nothing (or worse doing every wrong thing possible like the current one has) and lining their own pockets.

Instead, he's stirred things up. His influence has been very negative.

What that poor bloody country needs is peace & calm. The far right in the west, & the separatists in the east, are facets of the same problem: the corruption of the body politic, exemplified by but not confined to Yanukovich & his cronies. Both need to be restrained, but Putin has encouraged one lot.

Of course he has. He's not going to let Ukraine go the pro-Western route. That's all there is to it. Again it was forseeable. Ukraine has 3 FSU states for neighbors. It has done worse then ANY of them. This is not Putin's fault. Putin is opportunistically using the situation in what he perceives to be Russia's best interests. It would be strange if Putin had the interests of Ukraine in mind. After all which country is he the president of?

I read the Wikipedia article and it clearly states that where the party stands is a matter of debate between scholars and journalists. It goes on to say that they are a nationalist movement, not a fascist or antisemitic movement.

The nature of Svoboda is really not in dispute anywhere, except the internet. They're an ultra-nationalist group at best, and neo-fascist at worst. They've implicated themselves far too heavily in their own speeches and actions prior to the current crisis.

The people in eastern Ukraine they were not separatist at all , it has been the genocide made by ukrainian regular and para military forces sended by the government of Ukraine, killing civilians people the reason that have made they decide to support the independence from Ukraine.

It,s a genocide supported by western governments, nothing new as they supported the same in Irak, Serbia , Kosovo etc, this is the kind of "democracy" the western wants, the "democracy" of the guns.

Another video of the killings by ukrainian para military units fron right sector sended by the Kiev government shootings to unarmed civilians today

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W4joK6D_-Wc

There is no genocide at this point. There isn't even a coordinate campaign of killings so far. There have been sporadic acts of violence against unarmed rebels and angry civilians by ill trained and undisciplined government troops, and a low number of incidents of indiscriminate killings by Right Sector. None of this comes close to genocide. Nor is there evidence of the West encouraging or supporting this behavior.

I agree that the west has taken an ostrich like position with regards to some of the actions of the Kiev government but this does not amount of a western-led genocide. You need to critically evaluate your own position with closer regard to the evidence.

 

[Twain]

There are no Russian military and there are no Russian citizens among the federalization fighters in the eastern Ukraine.

That's interesting since some of the "militia" leaders haver admitted in newspaper, radio and televison interviews to being from russia and being russian citizens. They have also claimed to have fighters from russia and several other nations that were part of the Sovier Union.

 

[gf0012-aust]

That's interesting since some of the "militia" leaders haver admitted in newspaper, radio and televison interviews to being from russia and being russian citizens. They have also claimed to have fighters from russia and several other nations that were part of the Sovier Union.

There are some "ex" russian military in there - and the definition of "ex" is somewhat tenuous

there is a clear question of Ukrainian military competence if they are unable to match up against "militia" forces that are often 80% smaller.

however, footage of ukrainian soldiers the other day clearly showed a lack of basic training

 

[Twain]

There are some "ex" russian military in there - and the definition of "ex" is somewhat tenuous

I think extremely tenuous actually

there is a clear question of Ukrainian military competence if they are unable to match up against "militia" forces that are often 80% smaller.

however, footage of ukrainian soldiers the other day clearly showed a lack of basic training

It's rather interesting that people keep pointing out how incompetent the Ukranian military is and yet they claim the extremely competent eastern militias are made up of ex Ukranian military. That just doesn't pass the smell test.

I posted the article by general Breedlove earlier in this thread and it got heavily ridiculed, it's increasingly looking like he was right. They are just a bit too professional to be made up of ex military from an incompetent army.

 

[Twain]

A new poll is out consisting of a Ukranian and Russian poll from Pew. A few heighlights below.

Chapter 1. Ukraine: Desire for Unity Amid Worries about Political Leadership, Ethnic Conflict

A broad majority of Ukrainians say their country should remain a unified state (77%). Fewer than two-in-ten (14%) believe that regions that want to leave should be allowed to secede.

Support for maintaining Ukraine’s borders is especially widespread in the country’s west (93%). A majority of east Ukraine also wants to be one country (70%), including nearly six-in-ten Russian-only speakers (58%).

Ukrainians Want Unity Amid Worries about Political Leadership and Ethnic Conflict | Pew Research Center's Global Attitudes Project

Before anyone goes down the same road as the last poll

1. PEW is extremely respected worldwide
2. No they are not western biased
3. The methodology is there.
4. PEW is among the best in the world at polling social attitudes, worldwide or in the US.


The Ukranian portion of this poll shows pretty much the same thing as the Gallup poll. This whole mess is being driven by a small, very vocal, very motivated minority. It's a shame this is being allowed to happen.

And one last point, when reading this poll, be careful to distinguish the portion where they polled ukranians in Ukraine and where they polled russians in russia.

 

[gf0012-aust]

I posted the article by general Breedlove earlier in this thread and it got heavily ridiculed, it's increasingly looking like he was right. They are just a bit too professional to be made up of ex military from an incompetent army.

I didn't read the Breedlove article so can't comment - but based on what I've seen dribbling out from various (mainly baltic and skandinavian sources), then I'm guessing that the flavour would be similar.

I am also being extremely judicious in my desire to suspend cynicism.

bearing in mind that the "Azov Battalion" is just 70 strong and comprises "ex" military and "ex" policemen as the basis of its construct. A small non descript unit that is outperforming regulars does raise questions about officer proficiency - if not unit proficiency

the other issue is that Azov is purported to have been created as core Ukrainian forces were in the main, all considered to be infiltrated by pro Russian members of those units. The Taiwanese have a similar problem, but they only have sleepers and aren't about to go hot

 

[SolarWind]

A new poll is out consisting of a Ukranian and Russian poll from Pew.

A broad majority of Ukrainians say their country should remain a unified state (77%). Fewer than two-in-ten (14%) believe that regions that want to leave should be allowed to secede.

This is likely the reason why Putin has not been so eager to invade Ukraine and annex east like he did with Crimea. Ukraine's east and south majority, unlike Crimea, were recently not in favor of seceding from Ukraine. However this poll may have had (and I believe it would) a different outcome if the questions asked were about Kiev government's legitimacy rather than the broad Ukrainian unity. Keep in mind that Yanukovich, who was overthrown in Kiev, received most of his votes from south-eastern provinces. As Feanor pointed out, people in the east are only going to become more dissatisfied with the Kiev government as this anti-terrorist campaign goes on and as more civilians are killed in both east and south Ukraine.

Edit: Actually the poll did ask questions which may be related to the question of the Kiev government legitimacy, with results not being so impressive for the East. According to the Pew poll, 67% of Easterners and 82% of Russian speakers in the East believe that the current government in Kiev is having a bad influence on the way things are going in Ukraine. And 63% of Easterners believe that the May 25 presidential elections will not be fair.

 

[Twain]

This is likely the reason why Putin has not been so eager to invade Ukraine and annex east like he did with Crimea. Ukraine's east and south majority, unlike Crimea, were recently not in favor of seceding from Ukraine. However this poll may have had (and I believe it would) a different outcome if the questions asked were about Kiev government's legitimacy rather than the broad Ukrainian unity. Keep in mind that Yanukovich, who was overthrown in Kiev, received most of his votes from south-eastern provinces. As Feanor pointed out, people in the east are only going to become more dissatisfied with the Kiev government as this anti-terrorist campaign goes on and as more civilians are killed in both east and south Ukraine.

Edit: Actually the poll did ask questions which may be related to the question of the Kiev government legitimacy, with results not being so impressive for the East. According to the Pew poll, 67% of Easterners and 82% of Russian speakers in the East believe that the current government in Kiev is having a bad influence on the way things are going in Ukraine. And 63% of Easterners believe that the May 25 presidential elections will not be fair.

There's no doubt that a large majority of ukranians are very unhappy with the Ukranian government and have been since before this mess started but another large majority are also opposed to secession and russian intervention. The problem is that the governments of Ukraine for years have been both incompetent and corrupt.

The reason many Ukranians wanted to move closer to the EU was becase EU laws and regulations would, in time, force the Ukranian government to reform. They largely saw joining the Russan economic community as perpetuating the status quo rather than reforming the government.

 

[SolarWind]

There's no doubt that a large majority of ukranians are very unhappy with the Ukranian government and have been since before this mess started but another large majority are also opposed to secession and russian intervention. The problem is that the governments of Ukraine for years have been both incompetent and corrupt.

According to the poll you cite, it is primarily Easterners who are unhappy with the current government. There is no backing by the poll for your idea that the same people who were unhappy at the time of the poll were unhappy "since before this mess started". Also, there is no backing for your implication that the large majority who are opposed to secession are a different group from those who are unhappy with the current government. Someone who is against secession may very well be unhappy with the current government.

The reason many Ukranians wanted to move closer to the EU was becase EU laws and regulations would, in time, force the Ukranian government to reform. They largely saw joining the Russan economic community as perpetuating the status quo rather than reforming the government.

While I would agree that EU laws and regulations would in time have good influence on a country and its government, motivations in Ukraine were slightly different in my opinion. The West and Central Ukraine primarily wanted to see Yanukovich go, move close to the EU and remove regional status from the Russian language, all because they have wanted independence from Russia and Russian culture for hundreds of years. On the other hand, South and East Ukraine primarily voted for Yanukovich, want Russian orders in their south-eastern military-industrial complex and want Russian language to have equal status to Ukrainian.