Ukranian Crisis

[Musashi_kenshin]

i have a relative in the Just Russia party [regional leadership role] he scoffs at Crimea only... his line is Putin wants all of Ukraine and Crimea

I think he's greedily looking at eastern Ukraine, but I don't know how he would plan to rule the western part, given the people there would launch a guerilla war.

Lavrov: If Kosovo is a special case then Crimea is also

Except that Crimeans weren't being oppressed by anyone. Kosovo was a humanitarian intervention. Not that the Russians understand what's humanitarian.

 

[Feanor]

Good sign you're dealing with misinformation: they called it a "brigade", which, to my knowledge, the USAF/USAAC/USAAF has NEVER called an aviation unit. I don't even know think the US Army calls its flying units brigades (brigade is the headquarters units); Gremlin could confirm this, though.

Likewise, the 66th isn't a flying squadron, and hasn't been since 1970. It's a support group.

Methinks someone needs to update their information cards for preparing propaganda.

Hehe. You're misjudging the intended audience. This is for internal consumption. Nobody in Russia, except a few professionals, will know the things you just listed. And it's not supposed to be believable. It's not meant as a serious accusation. It's just an attempt to rally the less-then-rational patriotic crowd.

 

[Feanor]

Meanwhile the March of Peace (a protest again Russian intervention in Ukraine) in Moscow gathered 50 000 people. The government sponsored pro-intervention march had 10 000. The police was surprisingly restrained, only arresting several people who were carrying the Nazi flag.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: "Ìàðø ìèðà" â Ìîñêâå ñîáðàë 50 òûñÿ÷ ÷åëîâåê

And the Russian Ministry of Foreign affairs has stated that it will consider the multiple requests to protect Russians in Ukraine.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: ÌÈÄ îáåùàåò ðàññìîòðåòü "ìíîãî÷èñëåííûå ïðîñüáû" çàùèòèòü ðóññêèõ íà Óêðàèíå

Meanwhile Ukrainian military command South has gotten a generous "donation" from private business, which has allowed it to fullfill its fuel needs between 50 and 100%.

УкраинÑкий бизнеÑмен обеÑпечил горючим военные чаÑти Южного оперативного командованиÑ

And these are photos of Ukrainian D-30 artillery positions.

u_96:

And Ukrainian troops are continuing movements towards Crimea, while "polite persons" are rapidly disappearing from public places, probably being concentrated across from the Ukrainian forces near Perekop (the entrance to Crimea).

u_96:

The referendum in Crimea has already seen over 70% turnout rates. However there seem to be irregularities with it, including names of deceased people in the lists of ballots.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Âëàñòè Êðûìà îáúÿâèëè ðåôåðåíäóì ñîñòîÿâøèìñÿ

Pro-Russian activists have occupied the building of the procuracy and the SBU (KGB successor) in Donetsk, the regional administration is surrounded.

Ð”ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ñ ÐœÐ¾ÐºÑ€ÑƒÑˆÐ¸Ð½ - Ð¡Ð¸Ñ‚ÑƒÐ°Ñ†Ð¸Ñ Ð½Ð° Украине. Ð¡Ð¾Ð±Ñ‹Ñ‚Ð¸Ñ Ð² Донецке

Yarosh, a leader of right sector, has threatened to attack the gas-transit system in Ukraine. This comes after an attack on gas-pipelines in Crimea was attempted by men who claimed to be Ukrainian border guards.

*
*

And two trains with Ukrainian troops were stopped and blocked by pro-Russian protesters. They built barricades out of metal garbage, and prevented the trains from proceeding anywhere. This occurred in Lugansk and Donetsk, and the troops were headed from western Ukraine to the eastern border.

*

The Ukrainian authorities have tried to jam a Russian TV signal, coming from a satellite, and threats have been made against Russian journalists who present view points unfavorable to the authorities in Kiev.

*

In Donbass OSCE observers have arrived, in time to witness a fight between pro-Russian locals and Euro-Maydan activists bused in.

Colonel Cassad -

Also a referendum is being held in Lugansk. It's not intended to secede from Ukraine, but one of the options is whether the respondents feel that Lugansk should be part of Ukraine.

http://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/1483237.html

Also exit polls in Crimea say 93% of the votes are in favor of joining Russia.

http://newsru.com/world/16mar2014/ref.html

Readiness reports on the Ukrainian military state that about 20% of vehicle crews are capable of doing their jobs, it's been two years since the vehicles have been to training grounds, 15% of aircraft can fly, 10% of the crews know how to fly them, average annual flight hours are 4 (FOUR!!!), and the only warship in working order is the frigate (the three other functional ships are blockaded in Crimea). Trained AA system operators are about 10% of the total, the missiles for the S-200 and S-300 units are past their service life, and the only place to get replacements seems to be Russia. This report states that the only effective means of fighting are the MLRS systems (BM-21 and BM-27) but because the crews are poorly trained and the systems have huge areas of effect, collateral damage is likely to be high. The MinDef recommends tightening security around the MLRS systems, to prevent radical activists from capturing them.

This info is from a report from the Minister of Defense (acting) to the President of Ukraine (acting).

http://ria.ru/defense_safety/20140312/999197805.html

 

[gazzzwp]

Readiness reports on the Ukrainian military state that about 20% of vehicle crews are capable of doing their jobs, it's been two years since the vehicles have been to training grounds, 15% of aircraft can fly, 10% of the crews know how to fly them, average annual flight hours are 4 (FOUR!!!), and the only warship in working order is the frigate (the three other functional ships are blockaded in Crimea). Trained AA system operators are about 10% of the total, the missiles for the S-200 and S-300 units are past their service life, and the only place to get replacements seems to be Russia. This report states that the only effective means of fighting are the MLRS systems (BM-21 and BM-27) but because the crews are poorly trained and the systems have huge areas of effect, collateral damage is likely to be high. The MinDef recommends tightening security around the MLRS systems, to prevent radical activists from capturing them.

This info is from a report from the Minister of Defense (acting) to the President of Ukraine (acting).

И. о. главы Минобороны Украины: боеготовноÑÑ‚ÑŒ армии крайне низка | РИРÐовоÑти

That just about says it all. Without intending to be biased or inciteful either way I wonder if elements of the Ukrainian forces will launch a guerilla campaign? Often these have proved to be effective in the long term in the absence of an effective official military.

 

[gazzzwp]

Duplicate

 

[Blackshoe]

Hehe. You're misjudging the intended audience. This is for internal consumption. Nobody in Russia, except a few professionals, will know the things you just listed. And it's not supposed to be believable. It's not meant as a serious accusation. It's just an attempt to rally the less-then-rational patriotic crowd.

I don't have much of a problem with Russian networks reporting it, since it's what I expect from them.

I do have a problem when Western sources pass it along without doing any further research or investigating towards it.

If there's one thing I've noticed about this crisis (and a few others like it), it's amazing at how quickly people start self-selecting their sources to control the narrative.

 

[Feanor]

That just about says it all. Without intending to be biased or inciteful either way I wonder if elements of the Ukrainian forces will launch a guerilla campaign? Often these have proved to be effective in the long term in the absence of an effective official military.

I doubt it. A guerilla campaign would be likely in western Ukraine. Not in Crimea or the east. And it wouldn't be the army, it would be right sector and svoboda.

 

[alexkvaskov]

them, average annual flight hours are 4 (FOUR!!!)

Didn't they boost flight hours to ~42 for Euro-2012? And in the period leading up to that I recall sources mentioning 15-20.

 

[Feanor]

Didn't they boost flight hours to ~42 for Euro-2012? And in the period leading up to that I recall sources mentioning 15-20.

Honestly none of those averages mean much. I think that a few of the pilots gets most of the flight hours, and the rest get 0.

 

[kato]

Good sign you're dealing with misinformation: they called it a "brigade", which, to my knowledge, the USAF/USAAC/USAAF has NEVER called an aviation unit.

Actually, they're referring to the 66th Military Intelligence Brigade headquartered in Germany, part of INSCOM.

 

[My2Cents]

Readiness reports on the Ukrainian military state that about 20% of vehicle crews are capable of doing their jobs, it's been two years since the vehicles have been to training grounds, 15% of aircraft can fly, 10% of the crews know how to fly them, average annual flight hours are 4 (FOUR!!!), and the only warship in working order is the frigate (the three other functional ships are blockaded in Crimea). Trained AA system operators are about 10% of the total, the missiles for the S-200 and S-300 units are past their service life, and the only place to get replacements seems to be Russia. This report states that the only effective means of fighting are the MLRS systems (BM-21 and BM-27) but because the crews are poorly trained and the systems have huge areas of effect, collateral damage is likely to be high. The MinDef recommends tightening security around the MLRS systems, to prevent radical activists from capturing them.

This info is from a report from the Minister of Defense (acting) to the President of Ukraine (acting).

И. о. главы Минобороны Украины: боеготовноÑÑ‚ÑŒ армии крайне низка | РИРÐовоÑти

I wonder what the readiness of the Georgians was before their tussle with Russia?

At least the Russians have enough units that they can pick and choose the ones that are (supposedly) ready.

 

[mAIOR]

Some funny political fallout (or lack of it) from the Crimean referendum. The EU foreign ministers tried to come up with sanctions to 21 people in Ukraine and Russia by freezing their international assets and so forth. Funny part about it is, that among the names, Alexei Miller and Igor Sechin (CEOs at Gazprom and Rosneft) were among the list but the Austrian foreign minister (where those gentlemen probably have their overseas assets) promplty came out saying that "targeting business men at this point would be the wrong step" (Der Bild). Since in Ukraine people are choosing between Oligarchs on one side or Oligarchs on the other I find it amusing that they won't punish those who have something at stake in this. If this this is the standard of the way the EU is going to handle this, it seems like they are doing the minimum possible to appear to be rattled by this whole situation while in fact allowing it to continue and do really nothing about it. It is good to have strong leadership indeed XD.

 

[MarkH]

The EU foreign ministers tried to come up with sanctions to 21 people in Ukraine and Russia by freezing their international assets and so forth. Funny part about it is, that among the names, Alexei Miller and Igor Sechin (CEOs at Gazprom and Rosneft) were among the list but the Austrian foreign minister (where those gentlemen probably have their overseas assets) promplty came out saying that "targeting business men at this point would be the wrong step" (Der Bild).

They can try and freeze their assets...they can try but most certainly will fail...

 

[BlueRose]

These sanctions are all talk. They've been threatening with the same rhetoric for several weeks now. Those "Assets" have been shifted around by now. I don't think anyone will keep their money in the same place, if it's being threatened.

 

[mAIOR]

These sanctions are all talk. They've been threatening with the same rhetoric for several weeks now. Those "Assets" have been shifted around by now. I don't think anyone will keep their money in the same place, if it's being threatened.

Well, to be honest, if they have assets in Austria, they don't really need to move them. Austria is the best offshore bank account in the world. Much better than Switzerland since you don't really hear much about it. Probably the best thing for them to do is to buy German debt. German's economy is having some trouble according to the latest European bank stress test, German banks need an estimate €200 thousand million to keep afloat. So I guess that would be pretty interesting. Might just spark the EU state members to bring the much needed economic reform.

 

[V1nce]

Well, to be honest, if they have assets in Austria, they don't really need to move them. Austria is the best offshore bank account in the world. Much better than Switzerland since you don't really hear much about it. Probably the best thing for them to do is to buy German debt. German's economy is having some trouble according to the latest European bank stress test, German banks need an estimate €200 thousand million to keep afloat. So I guess that would be pretty interesting. Might just spark the EU state members to bring the much needed economic reform.

Stop spreading false information! Since when is germanys economy having "some trouble"? Where did the stress test slated for Q4 2014 state, that German financial institutes "need an estimate €200 thousand million (called billions btw) to keep afloat"? Or did you merely try to refer to one single analysis of two financial researchers? Did you know that they both rather used guidelines from the Bank of England, then from the ECB? Did you know, that if financial institutes need money, they simply get it from the captital market? Have you ever heard of the Third Basel Account? Why is Austria THE best offshore bank, if there wont be any banking secrecy from 2015/2017 on? Why did they catch Dmytro Firtasch?

In my opinion, it doesn't add anything to this otherwise very important thread, when some people just keep polarizing against certain entities.

 

[Feanor]

Well...

Russia recognized Crimeas independence. But simultaneously recalled the bill to simplify procedures for annexation. In other words, Crimea might get shafted... hard. Annexation into Russia would probably be beneficial in the long run, if only because Russia has more state-backed investment and would probably revive some of the industry. However Crimea could end up trapped in an unrecognized status, extremely unattractive for investment or tourism, a pawn in a game for Ukraine.

We will see tomorrow, when Putin makes a statement, whether Crimea will get annexed.

Ð”ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ñ ÐœÐ¾ÐºÑ€ÑƒÑˆÐ¸Ð½ - Ð*оÑÑÐ¸Ñ Ð¿Ñ€Ð¸Ð·Ð½Ð°Ð»Ð° Крым незавиÑимым гоÑударÑтвом
http://newsru.com/russia/17mar2014/putin.html
Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Çàêîíîïðîåêò îá óïðîùåííîì ïîðÿäêå ïðèíÿòèÿ íîâîãî ñóáúåêòà â ñîñòàâ ÐÔ îòîçâàí èç Ãîñäóìû

Euro-Maydan activists (men in masks with weapons) seized property of a Russian firm (Kamaz). They threatened to confiscate all the Kamaz trucks at the companies facility in Ukraine.

Ð”ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ñ ÐœÐ¾ÐºÑ€ÑƒÑˆÐ¸Ð½ - КÐÐœÐЗ ÑкÑпроприировали
*

Meanwhile a high ranking Russian official (Dmitriy Kozak) is being sent to Crimea to negotiate additional Russian financial insertions.

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Partial mobilization has been declared in Ukraine. 20 000 will be called up to serve in the new National Guard, and another 20 000 for other structures.

Ð”ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ñ ÐœÐ¾ÐºÑ€ÑƒÑˆÐ¸Ð½ - Ð¡Ð¸Ñ‚ÑƒÐ°Ñ†Ð¸Ñ Ð½Ð° Украине. ОбъÑвлена чаÑÑ‚Ð¸Ñ‡Ð½Ð°Ñ Ð¼Ð¾Ð±Ð¸Ð»Ð¸Ð·Ð°Ñ†Ð¸Ñ

Ukrainian troop movements are continuing in the East. Three videos at the bottom.

http://bmpd.livejournal.com/775764.html

And a photo of a Russian Mi-35M, with Ukrainian troops in the foreground. They're not hiding anymore...

http://u-96.livejournal.com/3255583.html

The top 3 videos and the T-64 entrenched, is Ukrainian Army. The rest is Russian Army. The BMD column was in Tula, moving towards Ukraine. It's probably the 76th Airborne.

http://u-96.livejournal.com/3254453.html

Some sections of the border with Russia are being fortified in the East of Ukraine.

http://twower.livejournal.com/1237765.html
http://twower.livejournal.com/1238690.html

 

[Feanor]

So apparently the story behind the closeups of Russians helos is this.

Two Mi-8AMTSh and two Mi-35Ms brought VDV troops to take control of a gas-transit station. By mistake they landed outside of Crimea, in Kherson region. Ukrainian police confronted them, after which the soldiers said they accidentally landed in the wrong place. They got back in the helicopters and left, but prior to that the Mi-35Ms did several mock attack runs on Ukrainian positions.

Блог ÐлекÑандра Шакуна - Ð*оÑÑийÑкие военные заÑвили, что "по ошибке" деÑантировалиÑÑŒ на ХерÑонщине

Videos here: Блог ÐлекÑандра Шакуна - Пара Ми-35Ðœ зеленых человечков проходÑÑ‚ над позициÑми украинÑких войÑк.

Look through the comments, there's more pics and videos in there.

Also Bal AShMs have been sighted in Crimea. These are ground-based X-35 launchers.

Ð’ Крым переброшены новейшие противокорабельные комплекÑÑ‹ "Бал"

Another video of Russian troops. The interesting part is that in one of the sequences, they're buying things in a super market. Without taking off their masks. It's a little surreal.

Блог ÐлекÑандра Шакуна - Зеленые человечки в крымÑком магазине.

And a nice map of Ukrainian budget by region. The green is a positive contribution to the federal budget (donor regions), the red ones are recipients of federal funds. The brighter the red or green, the more they provide. Yellow column is funds given to the federal budget, blue is funds received. Puts the current conflict in perspective... doesn't it?

http://like.sumy.ua/images/news/2014/january/postuplenia-v-budjet-2013-2.JPG

This is a video of (allegedly) the new national guard recruits.

http://azlok.livejournal.com/902395.html

 

[ngatimozart]

Stop spreading false information! Since when is germanys economy having "some trouble"? Where did the stress test slated for Q4 2014 state, that German financial institutes "need an estimate €200 thousand million (called billions btw) to keep afloat"? Or did you merely try to refer to one single analysis of two financial researchers? Did you know that they both rather used guidelines from the Bank of England, then from the ECB? Did you know, that if financial institutes need money, they simply get it from the captital market? Have you ever heard of the Third Basel Account? Why is Austria THE best offshore bank, if there wont be any banking secrecy from 2015/2017 on? Why did they catch Dmytro Firtasch?

In my opinion, it doesn't add anything to this otherwise very important thread, when some people just keep polarizing against certain entities.

Then why are you biting like a starving great white shark?

 

[mAIOR]

Stop spreading false information! Since when is germanys economy having "some trouble"? Where did the stress test slated for Q4 2014 state, that German financial institutes "need an estimate €200 thousand million (called billions btw) to keep afloat"? Or did you merely try to refer to one single analysis of two financial researchers? Did you know that they both rather used guidelines from the Bank of England, then from the ECB? Did you know, that if financial institutes need money, they simply get it from the captital market? Have you ever heard of the Third Basel Account? Why is Austria THE best offshore bank, if there wont be any banking secrecy from 2015/2017 on? Why did they catch Dmytro Firtasch?

In my opinion, it doesn't add anything to this otherwise very important thread, when some people just keep polarizing against certain entities.

Here is my information:
What the Asset Quality Review is likely to find: Independent evidence | vox

Regarding Austria, I did not know that bank secrecy was due to end in 2015/17.
And I will keep calling thousand millions, thousand millions (the correct way btw). And money coming from capital market is one of the reasons that the EBA stress tests deliver such appalling results.

I will stop with the aside comments if people prefer it, it was just a situation I found ludicrous with the whole sanction threatening and chest thumping.