One thing that has interested me about the Collins replacement is, can production of the 12 boats be produced in such a way that it becomes a ‘perpetual’ production process?
Is it possible, on the one hand, to ensure that Navy has the boats it needs, delivered and available on schedule, and on the other hand ensure that the capability and knowledge of building and maintaining submarines by ASC (or its successors) is continued, without significant production gaps, well into the future and well beyond the current planned production of 12?
It has been suggested by some that by the time sub number 12 is commissioned, that sub number 1 might be due for replacement, as each boat retires, a new one takes its place and continually maintains a fleet of 12 commissioned subs.
This would be great for industry if it was possible and I’d imagine good for the Navy too, the question is, can it be done??
Looking at the Japanese Navy as an example to possibly follow, and yes of course they have a larger submarine fleet (currently 18, including 2 training), but it’s something they appear to do regularly, looking back over the last 5 classes of boats:
* Uzishio class – 7 boats – less than 20yrs in commission
* Yushio class – 10 boats – less than 20yrs in commission
* Harushio class – 7 boats – less than 20yrs in commission (two still in commission as training boats)
* Oyashio class – 11 boats – all still in commission (oldest is 15yrs)
* Soryu class – 9 boats – 5 in commission, 4 building (oldest is 4yrs)
Recent production appears to be split between two builders, each producing a boat every 2 years, but alternating so that a new boat is commissioned each year.
Japan has been commissioning a new boat nearly every year since 1990, and before that there are some gaps, but as I said, since 1990 it pretty well one boat a year.
So looking back at the 6 Collins boats and their 12 replacements, can we do something similar?
The six Collins boats were commissioned over the period of 1996-2003, according to the Government their planned life was 28 years (see attached link below), meaning retirement of the fleet was planned to be between 2024-2031, but since then there is the possibility of giving them one more cycle of 7 years each, that takes them out to 35 years and a retirement period of between 2031-2038.
Defence Ministers » Minister for Defence and Minister for Defence Materiel – Joint Media Release – Collins Class Submarines Update
The first questions are, when is the first Collins replacement going to be ready for commissioning and what will the gap be between each subsequent boat?
It’s hard to find a definite starting point yet, but let’s say that the Submarine fleet will be no bigger than it is until the 7th unit of the replacements is commissioned, I can’t see there being any Collins-II’s in service prior to the decommissioning of the first Collins, maybe I’m wrong, but for the sake of this exercise this is where I’m starting.
If the first boat is commissioned in 2030 and assuming a 2 year gap between commissioning of each sub, then the 12th will be commissioned in 2052.
If on the other hand there was an 18mth gap between commissioning of each boat, still starting with commissioning the 1st in 2030, the 12th boat would commission in mid 2046.
At a two year gap between each commissioning, the first boat will be 22 years old by the time the last is commissioned, at an 18mth gap between commissioning the first boat will be 16 and a half years old when the 12th and last commissions.
The above doesn’t take into account the possibility of ‘batch’ production, as has been suggested by some, possibly the best way forward is to split the 12 boats into batches of 4, with improvements incorporated in each subsequent batch, so possibly there could be a larger gap after each batch of 4 is built.
So what does this tell me if we look at the Japanese Navy model for example, who appear to operate their submarines for around 20 years max?
If boats are delivered at an 18mth gap, when the oldest hull is only 16 and a half years old, then continuous production is probably not cost effective, but on the other hand if delivery is 2 years apart and the oldest hull is 22 years old by then, so maybe it is possible to have a ‘perpetual’ submarine construction capability in this country.
The one downside with a 2 year commissioning cycle (starting in 2030), is that the RAN’s submarine fleet would actually drop to 5 ‘in commission’ boats for a brief period 2038-40 when the last of the Collins retires before the 6th Collins-II commissions in 2040, maybe this is a small price to pay when looking at the big picture?
Anyway, I know the above is all assumptions on my part, maybe production will start sooner, maybe the gaps will vary, who knows!
I’m sure there are greater and smarter minds at work on this issue than mine, but it’s been an interesting exercise to think about and do.
Interested in all your thoughts!!
Cheers,
