The concern I have been raising about the RNZAF Air Transport Review is unfortunately confirmed by the responses of the MinDef. Basically until the recommendations come out in 2015 from the review, there is not going to be any RFI, RFP or RFT's... Which in turn means that process will need to commence (time frame likely 2+ years at a minimum IMO) before any orders placed and contracts signed.
That in turn means that construction of the new RNZAF airlifters would not being until 2017-2018 or thereabouts, and depending which aircraft is selected and the level or production, it might be a further two years the aircraft themselves are built, putting things into the 2019-ish timeframe.
One the aircraft have been built, then the training programmes can begin to reach IOC, which can again take another 2+ years. This is also assuming that some sort of transition and upskill training had already been started during the build for an initial intake of pilots, ground crew, aircraft maintainers and others to form a cadre to train the rest of the RNZAF and then NZDF. This would put IOC that somewhere around or past 2021.
This is also assuming that the RNZAF gets the money needed to purchase the aircraft from Treasury, that an appropriate type of aircraft is available for NZ to order, that the aircraft are being built at a reasonable pace, and that there is no other booked aircraft orders which would delay construction of the aircraft for NZ...
On the (slightly) bright side, IIRC because of the delays in the C-130H SLEP, the final C-130H would not be back in service until ~2014 which should that some of them could potentially be kept in service until 2022-2023 or so. That might give the RNZAF a little more breathing room, but it does look like the timing will be close if everything works out. If something it out of production, or has significant production backlogs, then NZ might be forced to either retire without immediate replacement (never good), buy something else as a stopgap, or waste more money on a further SLEP until the replacement is available.
-Cheers