Well I understand that, but the point of "supersonic sea skim" is that you're trying to develop a "silver bullet" ship killer...something that can take down even a modern air defense ship with ease. Great in theory, going to be REALLY expensive, but all that development gets you is a fairly specialized ability to go around fighting other high end navies.
I'd imagine that a supersonic sea skimmer would have a better time at targetting moderately defended warships than LRASM would, being a 'stealthy' subsonic weapon. If you could, could you help me get the LRASM-B component because i'm trying to look it up and in one end i'm getting word that it's meant to be a high altitude supersonic missile using ramjet propulsion and then there's constant references to AviationWeek about it being cancelled in Jan 2012, which isn't the case now because of the push through tests, it's confusing. I'd appreciate to have the whole thing laid out.
This is where I somewhat disagree. Dual role missiles sound good, and much of what makes a good strike weapon also fits for an ASCM. However, the technology to take a strike missile to be a capable ASCM is expensive. Totally new seeker requirements. More "brains" to defeat countermeasures. Survivability design against air defense ships. New flight profile.
That could limit your overall capacity more than any savings from going multirole. Along with possible design compromises to favor one or the other mission set.
They do sound good, but wouldn't this still be a factor with LRASM? It's got all of the gubbins for targetting ships and counter countermeasures and such, so wouldn't that still be an issue considering the dual role nature of LRASM?
In my opinon, "horizon" is when they have a developmental prototype that demonstrates that what you intend for it is within reach. To use birth as a gross analogy, a guy named Perseus just noticed a girl named Vertical Launch cell. Still lots that needs to happen before you can bet on spitting a baby out in 2030.
LRASM is on the horizon. If you pumped money into it today, I'm confident it'd be ready in five years.
I'd be willing to bet it'd be sooner than 5 years, but I get what you mean. My thinking was that I was putting myself in a position say 2020. The first ship is due to be delivered, the budget needs to be sorted about what comes in.
My idea pretty much depends on the level of interest Perseus gets coming up to 2020 and onwards.
Problem is there's no requirement for an exotic missile solution like Perseus in the Middle East. TLAM Block III alone could keep Iran at bay for the next 20 years. Iran is going nowhere fast. If anything, you need a more short ranged, cheap solutions like NSM or Spike to beat them in the numbers game.
The RN and MN would appear to disagree, considering the nature of the development and evolution of the concept and the sort of performance ideas coming out, it's been touted as the successor to Storm Shadow/SCALP too.
I don't deny that TLAM would do the job, indeed it would. As for short ranged and cheap solutions, that sounds more like a FASGW(H) or LMM job from a Wildcat than NSM. I'd imagine NSM isn't particularly cheap, but i've not seen any figures about costs so.
Here's my wrapup.
Harpoon Now + Perseus Later is certainly a viable strategy. Unfortunately, there's no real demonstrated need for a system like Perseus, unless either France/UK intend to play in a big war in the Far East. If that is a legitimate possibility, and one likely to be supported for funding, good call. Although you certainly couldn't do it alone, as at this rate, they would easily outspend (and probably outsteal) both UK and France.
I'd consider Harpoon/Perseus only really to be viable if we invest in updating our Harpoon stocks ASAP.
I don't really consider the UK/France in a war in the Far East as being a possibility, the current medium term trend for the UK is to pivot to the Middle East to take up the slack from the US' pivot to the Pacific.
I don't see the UK/France offering a whole lot to a war in the Far East apart from saying to the US "we'll cover the gap in the Med/Gulf with our carriers so you can re-deploy". That'd probably be the most helpful thing we could do.
Russia's not doing so great with their naval revival...but if you want to worry about Russia, ASW is where to pump resources. They're out of the modern surface Navy game for the forseeable future. So IMO, there's a real risk you may end up with Harpoon Now + ??? Later instead when the treasury looks at what's going on in the world. .
There most definitely is a real risk of capability gapping, as of right now there are some problems with the UK's carrier strike capability
- Might have a gap of 1 year with a handful of stopgap Merlins before the fleet is properly navalised
- AEW solution won't be available until 2020 at the earliest, but not such a big deal
Not to mention gapping MPA capability, we're used to having capabilities gapped. There's the real possibility that gapping AShM's might not be that much of a deal, when was the last time a ship launched missile attacked another ship?
I get that it's obviously not the best solution, but in terms of calculated risk it could be more reasonable than the others above.
LRASM is a compromise. But buying into it would get you something with potential to be viable for a very long time, and it could fit both dual roles quite nicely.
I've got nothing against the system, i'm sure it'll deliver what is required of it well enough and would be sustainable well into the future I just think it's a bit of an awkward timetable to work with.
What's the potential of leasing weapons from the US as an interim measure?