I still prefer to think about what the actual effects we intend for our forces to achieve. In my world view I would prefer to see us move away from capital ships and have a larger sub force with 20-30 Corvette plus vessels.
Plenty of simulations have shown in a hot war, surface combatants have a very short shelf life.
So what are we trying to achieve? Force projection, Area denial, maritime patrol and surveillance. So if we deploy the AWDs and supporting vessels to the Malacca Staits, how easily could they be taken out?
Put it this way if the AWDs actually fire multiple weapons in anger, I don't think anything we've got floating will be around long.
But we have a culture of capital ships and that's hard to change.
Hot war and 12 months you would be lucky to see any original metal still floating if it was being sent in to battle every day.There will generally be a quick exchange of collateral. Personally I think we are better off teaming up with an american flotilla of 3 carriers, 30 destroyers, 20 SSN's than cruising around by ourselves or with the chinese (if it ever got to that, which it won't).
The AWD do however do serve a purpose as light duty air defence, keep one or two multi role aircraft away, mop up a surface threat, be part of the ASW system, meet obligations to the Americans, land attack etc. We should be able to have enough AWD's to start a multinational effort. You need to be able to train, sustain a multi ship AWD commitment to do that.
The LHD is more about regional stability of our tiny neighbours. Not for invading mainland China. They aren't going into high threat zones, hence no self defence. We are currently struggling to maintain influence (losing?) in our region in diplomacy. We need that regardless of hot wars or not. Now we can try upping the financial aid to nations around us (billions which most likely won't see any tangible improvement) or ensure we can have floating hospital, enough man power to back a government from revolution and settle out of control tribal issues. Enough so that countries don't keep reaching out to china. Or worse. Which is unsettling the friends.
We will still get 20 OCV's IMO. But say getting 5 AWD and reducing the ANZAC replacement by one (to 7 ships or work something out over the 7 ship timeframe) will go some way to solve our build issues. We actually have two problems. Nothing going on in the 2014 period and too much going on in the 2020+ period. Maybe NZ will want to come to the party and pick up a ship from the end of the run. Its just the cost difference between a AWD and an Anzac replacement. Is that cheaper than pushing another project years forward?
IMO I still think we need 3 LHD, at least 4 AWD, 5 would be better. Dropping to 7 frigate replacements seems like a pretty small compromise.