Finding structural cracks in military aircraft is not uncommon during fatigue tests. But the F-35 was supposed to be different. It was the first combat aircraft launched after a revolution in digital design and simulation tools. The US Government Accountability Office (GAO) never accepted this theory, but the Department of Defense's acquisition planners did.
So the DoD adopted a strategy that called for Lockheed to deliver hundreds of F-35s concurrently during the flight test phase. Lockheed's workers would shift from assembling flight test aircraft right into early production jets, with no inefficient work stoppage or slowdown between the two phases. Then, production would escalate at a steady clip, rising by 150-200% every year to achieve the most efficient learning curve.
But now, with 58 F-35s ordered so far and another 485 planned before testing ends in fiscal year 2017, DoD officials are having second thoughts, according to a leaked "quick look review" (QLR) on the programme's concurrency risks by a five-member panel of acquisition experts.
After examining multiple assessment reports over a two-week period in late October and early November, the QLR team recommended that the DoD freeze orders at the 2010 level, excluding foreign sales, of 30 aircraft until Lockheed demonstrates that the F-35's design is mature.
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The QLR study warned that all 521 production F-35s delivered during the flight test phase could be affected. Lockheed, however, has argued that the F-35 airframe and hardware configuration will be frozen after the fifth lot of low-rate initial production. If the company is right, only 88 F-35s would need the full package of concurrency changes.
That leads to a broad range of cost estimates. The bill could rise to as high as $5.4 billion under the Senate's $10 million estimate for all 543 F-35s scheduled for delivery through 2017. It could also be as low as $440 million, if Lockheed's $5 million estimate for only 88 F-35s is applied.
Vice Admiral David Venlet, the head of the F-35 programme, has not released the actual cost figures, but in one December interview he described the concurrency bill as so high it "sucks the wind out of your lungs".
Lockheed, however, has taken the opposite stance. Company officials still do not accept the DoD's new concern that the concurrency strategy may be flawed. Instead, Lockheed argues that freezing production levels now would also increase costs, as manufacturing and assembly operations become more inefficient. In addition, buying production aircraft more slowly would require the services to preserve the fighters the F-35 would replace for several years more. This is the same argument that Lockheed and DoD programme officials previously made together.