I was wondering, what is going to be the geo-political, economic & military effects internationally if Gaddhafi is able to crush the rebellion completely ?
Things will probably go back to normal as it did before. I doubt if it play a part in determining whether people in other regional countries will try to topple governments they never elected.
If he is defeated, then it might actually have an adverse effect for the west, as rebellions might arise in other pro-western nations in the region, like Saudi Arabia, Oman etc ?
Whilst the west openly talks about democracy and self-determination, it is actually very worried about what kind of democtaric government people in various countries will elect. Remember what happened in Algeria, the military government was on the verge of losing the elections to a popular Islamist movement, it canceled the elections and stayed in power with the tacit approval of the west who had no desire to see Islamists come to power -whether democraticly elected or not. At present all eyes are currently on Syria and there is great concern of what role the Muslim Brotherhood will play in the event that Assad loses power.
[nomedia="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b42FJwydOCY"]YouTube - Fisk lashes out at West in Middle East[/nomedia]
YouTube - Robert Fisk on Syrian Uprising
I have said so before, and I was critised here for it, western reaction towards the quelling of riots or demonstrations in countres that have a more traditional/established relationship or an important role to play in the the foreign policies of the U.S. and the U.K, are very different than that towards countries like Syria, Libya and others. Saudi Arabia sent military and para-military troops to Bahrain because it feared the spilllover effects it would have on it's own Shiite population, and received no more than a slap on the wrist in a U.S. State Department brefing. What would the reaction have been if Libya had done the same in Tunisia? Though there is so much talk about democracy, self-determination and human rights in Tunisia, Egypt, Libya and Syria, a lot of that is missing in countries like Jordan, Saudi, Bahrain, Qatar, etc, yet there is litle mention of this.
Might a stalemate between Gadhaffi & the rebels be the best solution to this ?
Well a continued stalemate might not be the best solution for the civilians caught up it in...
A year from now, if there is still a stalemate, despite the no fly zone, non lethal aid, advisors, isolation of Gaddafi's regime, will there still be the political will to mantain the current military and diplomatic efforts?
