Hopefully the Libyans will be able to solve their own problems without outside inteference and rebuild their country. The very same countries who were so concerned about 'democracy' and the 'safety' of civilians in Libya remain very silent, apart from the usual warnings and statements at the UN, about the plight of civilians in Yemen and Syria. As part of the bill the new rulers of Libya will have to pay for being given democracy, will subsidised oil and contracts for Western companies to invest in Libya have to be granted? How soon will it be before salesman from Giat and Dassault start flocking to the Libyan MOD to handout brochures of the Leclerc and Rafale?
Western intervention, is it ever helpful? - Opinion - Al Jazeera English
We should be having this discussion in about a year as I feel its way too early to form any opinions as to how things are going to work out in the long run, especially for the ordinary Libyans who just want to get on with their lives. In 2003, despite the looming problems with the Shiite/Sunni divide, political uncertainties, etc, things looked just as rosy and encouraging in Iraq, and look at the price tens of thousands of Iraqis had to pay in the coming years, due to miscaculations, mistakes and flawed policies made by others. Granted, Libya does not have the same level of complexity and problems Iraq had, but I feel recent events are no indication of how things will eventually turn out.
I agree it's too early to know how things will work out in the long run, but it isn't true that things looked rosy in Iraq in 2003. The breakdown in order in Baghdad, for example, has had no parallel in Libya, where the citizenry has done a tolerable job of keeping order among themselves. Imperfect, of course, but far better than in Iraq. There was a power vacuum there which makes the somewhat chaotic NTC look superbly well-organised, because the US armed forces were completely unprepared & unwilling to assume civil control, & the civilian administrator had no means.
Libya is better placed than Iraq. Its infrastructure is far less damaged. It is far more homogeneous, ethnically & religiously. Almost everyone follows the same variety of Sunni Islam. The small Berber minority backed the rebellion. The Tuareg minority split, & some seem likely to have problems with the new regime, but they're not a serious threat to national stability. Nor is the sub-Saharan immigrant minority, who are probably the biggest losers from the change of government.
There's no question of subsidised oil contracts. Western firms & governments will be very happy to get Libyan oil at market prices. It's top-quality, & very cheap to transport, because of proximity to markets. Libya will get a bit more for its oil than Gulf suppliers, & Europe will be happy to pay it. The world oil price may fall a little when Libyan exports are back on stream, but that will affect Libya less than most, because of the quality of its product.
Nor do I expect the new government to splash out on lots of new tanks & jets. It has seen that they're no protection against the big boys, & it has, for the moment, more hardware of most kinds than it can use. It will probably buy new military communications equipment as soon as it gets organised, start a programme of rationalisation & refurbishment of its large arsenal of old gear, & buy some surveillance aircraft (probably UAVs), but what's the hurry to do more? Where's the external threat? It has more pressing needs.
Syria is far more difficult, Firstly, there is no general uprising, no establishment of an alternative centre of power. The government is killing demonstrators, but on a lesser scale than outside intervention would bring. It's not bombing its own cities - yet. It's allowed (but watched) conferences of government opponents.They don't want NATO bombing on their behalf, & in any case, what would NATO bomb?
Yemen? I think everyone considers it too much of a mess, too chaotic. Who can you intervene in favour of?
