No-fly zone over Libya

[kato]

I'm very curious as to what the Western response would be if Gadaffi manages to turn the tide on the battlefield and recapture most of the ground he has lost to the rebels or if the victorious rebels turn out to be not as secular as Gadaffi and his regime.

You mean like he's doing right now? Gaddafi's troops took back Ras Lanuf today. Sawija's gonna be pacified within days. Misrata and Brega are gonna fall next, the way this is going.

What's the definition of genocide? well killing in mass numbers would fit the description or not?

No.

Genocide means any of the following acts committed with intent to destroy, in whole or in part, a national, ethnical, racial or religious group, as such:

(a) Killing members of the group;
(b) Causing serious bodily or mental harm to members of the group;
(c) Deliberately inflicting on the group conditions of life calculated to bring about its physical destruction in whole or in part;
(d) Imposing measures intended to prevent births within the group;
(e) Forcibly transferring children of the group to another group.

Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide, UNO, 1948
UN General Assembly Resolution 260 (III).

 

[Feanor]

What's the definition of genocide? well killing in mass numbers would fit the description or not? anyway the news has labeled it a starting geno.....

My point was that you should've started by educating yourself with what the definition is before throwing the terms around.

And what i mean with the opposition is that its not only a large group of civvies that ask for help but also the political key figures as the news pointed out so it goes a little deeper then just a group of people.

That's the whole point. The opposition are not impartial. Nor are they necessarily representing the majority of Libyan society/population.

But i agree with what you said as i did explain myself a bit wrong for that iam sorry, i was just pointing out that we just do not know what the longterm game plan is going to be so is it going to get any better? or is it going down the drain?
So regardless what the outcome is going to be fact remains that you have to choose one out of multiple evils/ unknowns and only time can tell if it was the right thing.

Or maybe, not choose and let them figure it out themselves, then deal with whoever is left on top at the end?

But the situation as it is cannot continue so the only thing we might be able to do is lend a helping hand and try to set things right and hopefully the future runs its way as it should.

Sure it can. Gaddafi can retake control, and keep running the place as he did before.

And if this helping hand means military action then so be it.
I do not have love for Gaddafi and i do not have love for military action but talks alone are not going to stop anything another thing is that this is the EU's backyard so walking away would make NATO and EU basic's and moral values that EU and NATO have been preaching look like a good night bed story.

So maybe the solution is to stop preaching moral values? You know as opposed to going around and enforcing those moral values on others?

 

[Feanor]

You mean like he's doing right now? Gaddafi's troops took back Ras Lanuf today. Sawija's gonna be pacified within days. Misrata and Brega are gonna fall next, the way this is going.

It will be interesting to see whether he can re-organize the loyal elements of his army. As it stands it seems to be crumbling as he tries to use it to counter-attack.

 

[STURM]

Question who is killing all those people? correct Gaddafi.
Who is bombing his own oil rigs? correct Gaddafi.
Who is telling "untrue stories"? correct Gaddafi and partly the media as the info is sketchy at best.

Gadaffi has been killing and running a repressive regime for decades. As Feanor pointed out, this is hardly recent news and everyone knows this. Had the present rebellion never occured, the same countries that are talking about intervention now would only be too happy to continue mantaining ties with Gadaffi's regime for their own vital interests. When it's all said and done countries will do what is in their interests, regardless of the morality involved and whether it's contrary to what they preach.

I mean and this might sound one lined but NO country or nation is allowed to use so much force against its civvies and no nation, or leader is allowed to start a genocide or partly genocides and if one does? then the international community will respond to it with whatever options they have.
Why would this be any different with Libya? specially when the civvies asking for help.
The opposition is asking for help.

Then kindly explain why other countries have done the same thing Gadaffi is currently doing and got away with it. I'm not saying that there's an 'evil plot' behind all the calls for intervention in Libya but surely all this talk of a no fly zone and intervention is also driven by factors other than humanitarian and moral concerns .... If something similiar were to happen say in Jordan, Saudi or Bahrain, would certain countries be so eager to intervene there?

 

[Beatmaster]

Then kindly explain why other countries have done the same thing Gadaffi is currently doing and got away with it. I'm not saying that there's an 'evil plot' behind all the calls for intervention in Libya but surely all this talk of a no fly zone and intervention is also driven by factors other than humanitarian and moral concerns .... If something similiar were to happen say in Jordan, Saudi or Bahrain, would certain countries be so eager to intervene there?

Well i do understand what you are saying and i totally agree that the west is acting most of the times with double standards.
As economics and personal interests /political reasons are also a large part and factor in which way NATO and US operate.
There are at the present day enough regions where people are being killed while NATO looks away.
Gaddafi has been killing people for decades we all know that.
And regarding the intervention in countries like Jordan, Saudi and Bahrain i believe if things really go wrong there then intervention will probably happen, not sure if the west is eager to do so.
On the other hand given the fact that everyone has put up with Gaddafi for so long things are going to change and i fear its going to be done the hard way, knowing that Gaddafi has been given multiple options to "change" the way he is leading his nation.
Someone is going to say stop someday and i believe that this applies for every nation/ leader.
So what do you want me to say? that its all fair? i never said that in the first place.
What i did say is that things are going out of hand in such way that the west simply cannot look away.
Also we do not know if there are special reasons or other pressing problems, but ill bet that the west does have a serious set of reasons to do this.

 

[STURM]

So what do you want me to say? that its all fair? i never said that in the first place.
What i did say is that things are going out of hand in such way that the west simply cannot look away.
Also we do not know if there are special reasons or other pressing problems, but ill bet that the west does have a serious set of reasons to do this.

We now seem to be in almost complete agreement. So what was so 'one sided' about the articles in the links link I provided ?

Like I said earlier, nations will act or will not act, when it suits their national interests, regardless of any moral considerations, it is to be expected. I don't claim to have any answers and with regards to Libya there are more questions than answers, namely :

1. What a no fly zone is meant to achieve if Gadaffi completely routs the rebels
or if the situation turns into a stalemate. For how long will it the no fly zone be mantained?

2. The nature of the intervention and the mandate the Western military commanders will receive with regards to humanitarian aid and military steps needed to neutralise the military forces still loyal to the regime. The problem is as much political, social and economic as it is militarily. As in Iraq and Aghanistan, intervention in Libya will be the easy part, sorting the political mess out and leaving might a bit more tricky...

3. The precedent that military intervention in Libya will create in that other groups in other regional countries, eager to replace their 'non-democratic' present rulers, will be expecting the same help if a similiar situation were to arise.

4. In the event of the Gadaffi regime falling, many assume or hope that the rebel groups will sort out any differences they have and eventually form a democratic government. What if it turns out to be otherwise, with a government that is not as secular as Gadaffi's regime but nonetheless still democratic?
Having helped dispose of Gadaffi will the major players like the U.S., Britain and France insist, un-officially, on having as say towards the make up of a future post-Gadaffi government?

5. If the situation in Libya turns out to be a bigger mess, despite the intervention of foreign forces, how will this effect the overall stability in North Africa and the Middle East and will it make Western relations with the Muslim world worse? In the Middle East, already tense due to recent events which started in Tunisia, the Palestinan/Israeli issue remains unresolved, as does the Iranian nuclear issue. Elsewhere, success in Afghanistan still hangs in doubt.

 

[Feanor]

Battles for Ras Lanuf seem to be continuing with the government troops in control of the center. Reports of Libyan ships with troops entering the harbor. Also, allegedly, the oil refinery in Ez Zawiyah has started working again. But we don't have any independent confirmation. The rebels are now asking for a no-fly zone, and blocking of ports.

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[sgtgunn]

Forces loyal to Gaddafi seem to be gaining the upperhand against the rebels.

The possibility of serious military intervention by the international community (no fly-zone or anything else) seems to be diminishing.

The US wants Security Council Approval first, which given the opposition of China & Russia (and others) seems unlikely.

Other EU/NATO Nations are looking for Arab League/AU support first, which also seems unlikely.

At the same time given the actions of Gaddafi and all of the rhetoric directed against him (actions by the ICC, sanctions, France regognizing the rebels, etc.) by the international community, any kind of reapprochment or even normalization between Libya and the west (EU/NATO/US) in the aftermath of a victory by Gaddafi seems highly problamatic.

So if he wins, what happens?

Libya returns to its old status as a pariah state (welcome back "Axis of Evil".....)?

Does realpolitk eventually triumph, and does everyone eventually act like nothing happened?

Does Gaddafi lash out at the countries that codemned him? Does Libya return to its old "terrorists are us" ways?

I think if Gaddafi triumphs, it will be yet another blow to the credibility and prestige of the west. EU & NATO talked a big game, and proved to be toothless, showing all of the would be despots of the world that we simply don't have the backbone or care enough about our own principles to bother actually doing anything anymore.

Adrian

 

[T.C.P]

If Gaddafi survivrs this then Russia will regret turning thier backs on him in the most crucial time.

 

[Feanor]

If Gaddafi survivrs this then Russia will regret turning thier backs on him in the most crucial time.

I doubt it. Either way oil prices spike, and he doesn't have any other friends to turn to.

 

[kato]

Aw, his good friend Berlusconi's not gonna care.

 

[Beatmaster]

You mean like he's doing right now? Gaddafi's troops took back Ras Lanuf today. Sawija's gonna be pacified within days. Misrata and Brega are gonna fall next, the way this is going.


No.

Genocide means any of the following acts committed with intent to destroy, in whole or in part, a national, ethnical, racial or religious group, as such:

(a) Killing members of the group;
(b) Causing serious bodily or mental harm to members of the group;
(c) Deliberately inflicting on the group conditions of life calculated to bring about its physical destruction in whole or in part;
(d) Imposing measures intended to prevent births within the group;
(e) Forcibly transferring children of the group to another group.

Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide, UNO, 1948
UN General Assembly Resolution 260 (III).

Bottom line exactly as i said killing mass numbers...

But back on topic: Gaddafi seems to be winning and seems to regain control, i am not sure what the west will do during and after this whole thing.......

 

[Ananda]

I doubt it. Either way oil prices spike, and he doesn't have any other friends to turn to.

Yep, if khadafi regain Libya, the west has no choice but to embargo weapon and oil. He will lose a lot of assets frozen by west. He need new ammo and guns that's mean Russia. Also new market and capital for his oil, and that's mean China.

French will chew finger nail a lot though. There's go another Rafale's big buyers.

 

[STURM]

In an AP report which ran in a local paper today, Germany announced that it will not participate in any military moves until the Arab League issues a declaration. The African Union has also decided not to get involved. The U.S. and the U.K. has also made clear that any no fly zone will only be conducted with a UN mandate [suprise, surprise...]. Which means that any decision is unlikely to happen soon, a dangerous situation for the rebels who don't have time on their side.

Kicking the intervention habit - Opinion - Al Jazeera English

P.S. Latest news just in. The Arab League has called on the UN Security Council for a no fly zone over Libya.

 

[Ananda]

Yep, if khadafi regain Libya, the west has no choice but to embargo weapon and oil. He will lose a lot of assets frozen by west. He need new ammo and guns that's mean Russia. Also new market and capital for his oil, and that's mean China.

French will chew finger nail a lot though. There's go another Rafale's big buyers.

Add another development.

With the Arab's other regime now seems ok with no fly zone. It will be interesting to see what China and Russia will say in the UN Security Council. Also what sort of no fly zone in here going tobe.

Now khadafi's force winning in the ground. The rebels in the retreat. No fly zone if only forbiding khadafi's air forces to fly will not hindered his army in the ground. Will the west now acted as Rebel's Air Force ?

The game for Libya continues to play. Will the West acknowledge the Rebels government eventhough it will only retain some cities ? Is the Land intervention immenent ? Oooo it's just got more interesting.

 

[StingrayOZ]

I think the no fly zone will get up, its relatively low risk, not seems overtly keen to stop it now the arabs have sanctioned it. It may happen weeks from now. Proberly the only good it will do is stop genocidal retaliation bombing after this is all over.

Rebels seem to be losing now, they seem to have numbers but not the organisation.

 

[DarthAmerica]

I think the no fly zone will get up, its relatively low risk, not seems overtly keen to stop it now the arabs have sanctioned it. It may happen weeks from now. Proberly the only good it will do is stop genocidal retaliation bombing after this is all over.

Rebels seem to be losing now, they seem to have numbers but not the organisation.

Hmm, "low risk"? So was Operation El Dorado Canyon. And that had a point as well as justification to the stakeholders. I'm curious As to whether or not your risk analysis has been accessed holistically?


-DA

 

[jtm]

Yep, if khadafi regain Libya, the west has no choice but to embargo weapon and oil. He will lose a lot of assets frozen by west. He need new ammo and guns that's mean Russia. Also new market and capital for his oil, and that's mean China.

French will chew finger nail a lot though. There's go another Rafale's big buyers.

A Rafale deal with Libya is out of the picture for at least 2 years, so, the French have had time to chew finger nails on the topic...

 

[STURM]

With the Arab's other regime now seems ok with no fly zone. It will be interesting to see what China and Russia will say in the UN Security Council. Also what sort of no fly zone in here going tobe.

Assuming a mandate for a no fly zone is approved, I think the Arab countries should play a major role in it, besides just agreeing on the need for a no fly zone . After spending billions these past few years on their airforces forces, surely the air forces of Saudi Arabia and the UAE will be able participare along other air forces in the skies over Libya.

 

[Ananda]

Assuming a mandate for a no fly zone is approved, I think the Arab countries should play a major role in it, besides just agreeing on the need for a no fly zone . After spending billions these past few years on their airforces forces, surely the air forces of Saudi Arabia and the UAE will be able participare along other air forces in the skies over Libya.

The "bold one", is the action that I believe the West (EU and US) like the Arab's agreeing to. However agreeing to 'no fly zone' and actually commited and taking risk to do that, is completely different thing.

I believe the 'no-fly zone' inthe end will bemostly conducted using Nato's Air Forces. Yes the Arab's air forces (expecially Egypt, Saudi's) can do that, but don't think they will venture to that.