No-fly zone over Libya

[kato]

We're near end-game btw.

Loyalist troops have taken Brega and the surrounding region, rebels have withdrawn to Ajdabiya, their last base before Benghazi. Misrata is still under siege.

A pro-loyalist group in Benghazi has been committing partisan and terrorist attacks on rebels during the last two weeks btw, e.g. bombing a ammo depot and a hotel with western journalists.

 

[Ananda]

We're near end-game btw.

Loyalist troops have taken Brega and the surrounding region, rebels have withdrawn to Ajdabiya, their last base before Benghazi. Misrata is still under siege.

A pro-loyalist group in Benghazi has been committing partisan and terrorist attacks on rebels during the last two weeks btw, e.g. bombing a ammo depot and a hotel with western journalists.

This can back to my questions on post 138:

The game for Libya continues to play. Will the West acknowledge the Rebels government eventhough it will only retain some cities ? Is the Land intervention immenent ?

With Rebels increasingly in the retreat, what good the no fly zone will do for them unless it also being used to attack Khadafi's forces movement. Especially if they (khadafi's forces) clossing in to rebels forces. Something that 'no-fly zone' wasn't really design for.

The French already acknowledge the rebels, but with increasingly the rebels lossing ground, what good the west acknowledgement (if comming) for them if no 'land intervention' comming ??

Seems 'no-fly zone' become increasingly 'irrelevent' to the outcome day by day.

 

[STURM]

I believe the 'no-fly zone' inthe end will bemostly conducted using Nato's Air Forces. Yes the Arab's air forces (expecially Egypt, Saudi's) can do that, but don't think they will venture to that.

Given the current political situation in Egypt, it is very unlikely that the Egypt will want to take part in a Libyan no fly zone. Countries like Saudi and the UAE should take part in a no fly zone not only because Libya is in their backyard and because the Arab League has called for such action, but also because it's time for Arab countries to put their money where their mouth is and do something besides talking and issuing joint declarations. Granted, a decision will be heavily weighted down by internal political factors but surely the Arabs dont expect other countries to bear the main burden alone.

Something interesting about the Palestinians and Libya. Had no idea Libya at some point played host to large numbers of Palestinians, which were later used as poliical pawns by the 'Colonel'.

Robert Fisk: Palestinians understand Gaddafi better than we do - Robert Fisk, Commentators - The Independent

http://www.ericmargolis.com/politic...--gadaffi-redux-may-cause-lots-of-red-fa.aspx

 

[Feanor]

I'd say the best solution at this point is to let Gaddafi end it, and keep buying his oil and gas. It's not we didn't know he would do this if a rebellion arose. So, long story short, unless we're reacting to save our own face and make it look like we're principal crusaders against dictatorship, there is no reason not to resume status quo.

 

[STURM]

I'd say the best solution at this point is to let Gaddafi end it, and keep buying his oil and gas. It's not we didn't know he would do this if a rebellion arose. So, long story short, unless we're reacting to save our own face and make it look like we're principal crusaders against dictatorship, there is no reason not to resume status quo.

Nicely said.

I just can't understand why France is so eager and seems to be in such a great rush to get involved in Libya with regards to pushing for a no fly zone and officially recognising the rebels. Surely there's more at stake here apart from moral and humanitarian reasons........

Saudi troops have just entered Bahrain to help the government there to 'protect' it's vital installations. Whether this will have a calming effect on things or will further inflame the situation remains to be seen. Like Bahrain, Saudi also has a shiite population which however is a minority in the country.

 

[NICO]

Nicely said.

I just can't understand why France is so eager and seems to be in such a great rush to get involved in Libya with regards to pushing for a no fly zone and officially recognising the rebels. Surely there's more at stake here apart from moral and humanitarian reasons........

Saudi troops have just entered Bahrain to help the government there to 'protect' it's vital installations. Whether this will have a calming effect on things or will further inflame the situation remains to be seen. Like Bahrain, Saudi also has a shiite population which however is a minority in the country.

I am surprised it has taken this long for SA forces to "intervene" in Bahrain. I guess they figured they couldn't trust Bahrain Govt to "finish" the job of putting down protesters.

As for Libya, there really was never a movement in the West to do anything, we talk democracy and all but nobody wants to help out some rebels, like Feanor said, status quo is easier to resume.

 

[Ananda]

Granted, a decision will be heavily weighted down by internal political factors but surely the Arabs dont expect other countries to bear the main burden alone.

And 'why not ' ?? The rest of Arab's regime are not really interested to muddling down in Libya to begin with anyway. They have their own problem to think. Why help Libyan rebels, if this can see as sign to their own homeland that they are supporting rebels to change Dictactorship...whille those regimes mostly consists of dictactorship. Especially now with Khadafi's forces winning in the ground.

Whille the west now more concern with Japan Tsunamis then what happen to Libya. The European Insurance companies (especially the re-insurance) already now deep in calculation on how much re-insurance they have to pay to Japanese Insurance companies due to Tsunamis.

The capital market now waiting for the costs of tsunamis also, since if it's reach certain level (the loss), then all Japanese hedge fund and insurance companies will sell their overseas portfolio's to cover the loss back home. Since Japan and Chinese now increasingly dominant force on worldwide portfolio Investment, the Japanese pull out effect can spiral down to world capital market and the 'precaurious' economic recovery in the West.

In that conditions, well Libya matters increasingly become less popular to intervene with. No-Fly zone is already too late anyways.

 

[STURM]

And 'why not ' ?? The rest of Arab's regime are not really interested to muddling down in Libya to begin with anyway. They have their own problem to think. Why help Libyan rebels, if this can see as sign to their own homeland that they are supporting rebels to change Dictactorship...whille those regimes mostly consists of dictactorship. Especially now with Khadafi's forces winning in the ground

Are you suggesting the Arabs continue their tradition of doing nothing but talking? Why go to the UN to seek a mandate for a no fly zone if the wealthy Arabs countries are unwilling to participate in something that is in their backyard? Is the billiions spent on their air arms just for show? The Arab League, with regards to helping find a solution to the Palestinian/Israeli peace talks and other Arab problems, has a long history of talking, talking and talking and having emergency sessions in which meaningless declarations are issued. Now is the time to put their money where their mouth is. Saudi has already sent troops to Bahrain because it fears the shiite unrest there could spill over the causeway and 'infect' it's restive shiite minority population, surely sending a few jets to participate in a no fly zone will be less politicaly damaging than sending troops to neighbouring Bahrain. After decades of Western involvement in the Middle East surely the Arab countries can try to sort their own problems out.....

Anyhow all this talk of intervention, humanitarian assistance and a no fly zone will be meaningless if the 'Colonel' completely routs the rebels and recaptures all the lost territory.

 

[Ananda]

Are you suggesting the Arabs continue their tradition of doing nothing but talking? Why go to the UN to seek a mandate for a no fly zone if the wealthy Arabs countries are unwilling to participate in something that is in their backyard? Is the billiions spent on their air arms just for show? The Arab League, with regards to helping find a solution to the Palestinian/Israeli peace talks and other Arab problems, has a long history of talking, talking and talking and having emergency sessions in which meaningless declarations are issued. Now is the time to put their money where their mouth is. Saudi has already sent troops to Bahrain because it fears the shiite unrest there could spill over the causeway and 'infect' it's restive shiite minority population, surely sending a few jets to participate in a no fly zone will be less politicaly damaging than sending troops to neighbouring Bahrain. After decades of Western involvement in the Middle East surely the Arab countries can try to sort their own problems out.....

Anyhow all this talk of intervention, humanitarian assistance and a no fly zone will be meaningless if the 'Colonel' completely routs the rebels and recaptures all the lost territory.

Well Sturm, sadly I have to say 'yes' the Arabs regime in the matter of Libya is more on 'talking' mode and not in the 'action' mode. I could be wrong, but in my eyes they are more on self preservation mode. Again why help Libyan rebels outs Dictactor (Khadafi), if most of them are 'fellow' dictactors anyway.

The Saudi's intervention to Bahrain is different matter. They simply do not want a 'shia' regime in their door step. Besides the Gulf kingdoms have more 'unity' to help each other, compared to help other 'non-gulf' Arabs. Even when I was in Mecca doing my Hajj, I saw with my own eyes the different treatment the Gulf Arab's Hajj got compared to the non-gulf Arab's Hajj (even sometimes I saw the SE Asian Hajj got better treatment than non-gulf Arab Hajj/Pilgrim). That's supposed not happen, but well the Saudi's is still human and human has preferances on choosing their Friends.

Anyway just like Kato says, and what you or I impplied, the end game is clossing near, when Khadafi's regain all lost teritory.The result for the west is the Greece and Italian has to prepared with more influx of Ilegal allien from Libya.

 

[riksavage]

The following exercise should go live over Libya. Ironic the focus for this long planned exercise is 'long range strike'

First Major Franco-British exercise since the signing of the FRA/UK defence treaty.
First Franco-British exercise since the signing of the FRA/UK defence treaty. Last week it was Prince Harry flying in the Alps….now this !

Southern Mistral 2011

On November 02 2010, France and Great Britain signed an unprecedented agreement on defence and security.

The Franco-British exercise Southern Mistral falls within the scope of this treaty. It is scheduled to take place from 21 to 25 March 2011 on several French air bases.

On this occasion, the French and British forces will perform Composite Air Operations and a specific air raid (Southern Storm), delivering very long range conventional strike. Over 500 personnel will contribute to this bilateral exercise.

Six Royal Air Force Tornado GR4s, one tanker Vickers VC-10 and one Boeing E3D will be deployed together with French Air force Mirage 2000Ds, 2000Ns and 2000Cs operating with a fleet of around thirty aircraft including helicopters, Boeing tankers and Awacs radar aircraft.

Air Raid Southern Storm will be commanded and controlled by the National Air Operations Centre (CNOA) of Lyon Mont-Verdun air base (BA 942).

An Air Operations Cell deployed at Nancy air base (BA 133) will follow in real time all the air missions and reproduce the air raids.

Simultaneously, Paratrooper Commando Air 20 (CPA20) will receive its British counterpart in Dijon: the RAF Regiment. Together they will train for air base protection missions on operational theatres in compliance with what is achieved today in Afghanistan.

Furthermore, with London’s Olympic Games coming up in 2012 and the relating security mission, RAF Regiment members will train in Captieux to helicopters’ air policing measures. These specific procedures are implemented on a daily basis by the Quick reaction Alert FAF air defence helicopters to intervene against “slow movers”.

On March 24, commando paratroopers and pilots will meet in Nancy-Ochey to present the product of their cooperation to the French and British Ministers of defence during a one-day display featuring the future alliance.

 

[sgtgunn]

Well they did it. The UN Security Council Voted 10-0 with 5 Abstentions (Russia, China, India, Germany & Brazil). Hopefully it's not too late to stop Gaddafi's forces from taking Benghazi.

Here's the full text of the Resolution:

UN security council resolution 1973 (2011) on Libya – full text | World news | The Guardian

In addition to establishing a No-Fly zone it looks to me like this authorizes air strikes against Libyan forces to protect the rebels on the ground.

I have to say I was a little nonplussed by Germany's UN Ambassador;s comment expressing the concern that a No-Fly Zone could lead to "the likelihood of large-scale loss of life.".

Really? As opposed to the inevitability of the large-scale loss of life if the world did nothing and Gaddafi's forces assault Benghazi and take their revenge on the rebels?

Jeez.

Adrian

 

[kato]

In addition to establishing a No-Fly zone it looks to me like this authorizes air strikes against Libyan forces to protect the rebels on the ground.

No, it authorizes air strikes against all forces to protect the civilians on the ground.

There's a huge difference.

Really? As opposed to the inevitability of the large-scale loss of life if the world did nothing and Gaddafi's forces assault Benghazi and take their revenge on the rebels?

I have yet to see any large-scale civilian losses in Libya. Or large-scale losses on any of the combatant sides for that matter.
We've never seen any proof of the claimed air strikes on demonstrations btw. We have seen civilians (in particular other ethnic groups such as black african expats) hunted and killed by rebel-influenced mobs though. And not on a small scale.

Gaddafi gave a choice to the rebels in his last speech, while his forces were already on his current successful offensive: Capitulation or Flight. That is a rather grand-standing offer. And the real civilian population, not the rebels, are already opportunically turning back to supporting Gaddafi in anticipation of him running right over any rebel resistance.

As for Benghazi? Air Strikes authorized now won't have any effect on whatever happens there. Within 24 hours, Gaddafi's hours will probably have the outskirts under control, and unless UN-authorized aircraft start bombarding the city, i don't see any effective close-air support for rebel forces happening (which would not be sanctioned by the UN resolution anyway). Sure, the artillery outside the city would be toast, but the rebels are running out of even the most basic firearms and ammunition and are outnumbered.

 

[kramxel]

IMHO the resolution is pretty vague to what "all necessary measures to protect civilian lives" means....

I'm still not fully convinced of the urge to approve this measure... as Kato said, there are no solid evidences that the civilian population is in great risk.

Does the resolution help to support Gaddafi or the rebels?
It is yet to be seen which countries will participate in the enforcement of said NFZ...
And it will be probably up to them to decide who to support....
Even though I feel the rebels will see the ultimate beneftits of these measures.

 

[Padfoot]

How will it work? What will be the order of battle? Obviously the Libyan air defence system has to be taken out first, what will this involve? B2? Tomahawk, Storm Shadow? Degree of difficulty?

Thank you in advance.

 

[kramxel]

How will it work? What will be the order of battle? Obviously the Libyan air defence system has to be taken out first, what will this involve? B2? Tomahawk, Storm Shadow? Degree of difficulty?

Thank you in advance.

From what I understand (limited knowledge) GB and France were the main force behind this decision....

I don't know if the US will be interested in deploying a large force...

 

[DarthAmerica]

Something is not as it seems. You don't alert the defense unless you're sure of being able to beat it. What does "beat it" mean in this context?

-DA

 

[surpreme]

The no fly zone will help the opposition if it starts immediatety. In the desert airpower is alot the targets are easy to hit thats what change the tide along with untrained opposition fighters. I will tell you this the Libyian Air Force will not try the US Air Force. I wonder if this will turn into hitting Libyian forces if it doesn't the oppositions is done

 

[Ananda]

No, it authorizes air strikes against all forces to protect the civilians on the ground.

There's a huge difference.


I have yet to see any large-scale civilian losses in Libya. Or large-scale losses on any of the combatant sides for that matter.
We've never seen any proof of the claimed air strikes on demonstrations btw. We have seen civilians (in particular other ethnic groups such as black african expats) hunted and killed by rebel-influenced mobs though. And not on a small scale.

Now it's just to see what's the definitions of civilians ??..It's included the 'armed civilians' that the rebels claims as the main forces of their Armed Resistance (kind a propaganda that want to show their forces mostly civilians).

If that so, the the West really become the Rebels Air Force. Kind of interesting to see why the most eager are GB and Franch with this no fly zone..whille the Southern European (notably Italy and Grece) seems rather holding their enthusiasm..considering they're the ones that going to take the massive influx of ilegal imigrants from Libya.

Now there's armed embargo to Libya. That's mean to both Khadafi's forces and Rebel's forces. Will the west let the Rebels re-armed under no-fly zone..?? Ifthat's happen will Rusia and China stand still. Now they're abstain with no-fly zone..but if they see this no fly zone give opportunity for the Rebels to re-armed..Will they still abstain...???

The game is just getting more interesting guys...

 

[STURM]

Enforcing the no fly zone will be the easy part. What happens after that, is the question I'm very curious about.

There are other issues that remain unclear at the moment.

1. The problem in Libya is as much political as it is military and one lesson that we have learnt in many places is that relying on military options is seldom the solution for what is essentially also a political problem. How far the various countries that were pushing for the no fly zone will get involved in Libya's political problems? It is inevitable that after getting their no fly zone the rebels will be expecting more assitance.

2. Assuming a smiliar situation were to suddenly prop up in another regional country, what then?

3. For how long will there be the political will to mantain a no fly zone in the event that the 'Colonel' remains in power - which appears increasingly likely?

4. In the unlikely event that the no fly zone results in the rebels reversing the tide and Gadaffi falls, are there any plans in dealing with a post-Gadaffi Libya?
What if the rebels can't form a unity government and the hope of many countries for a democratic, secular and 'friendly' government doesn't materialise?

5. Will the Arab League actually get involved and contribute? The fact remains that the West is again, irrespective of the reasons, intervening in another Muslim country. Arab League participation will lessen any political fallout in the event that things become a bigger mess.

Granted the political climate has changed and there is a different government in power, but I'm very surprised at the speed and willingness of the French to get involved in Libya, especially after taking into account how France conducted it's policies with regards to Bosnia and Rwanda in the 90's. Won't be surprised at all if the Lerclerc and Rafale are operated in the future by a post-Gadaffi Libyan armed forces. That would make the people at Dassault and Nexter very, very happy.

Have included this article, which appeared before the UN voted to have a no fly zone, as I believe it contains info that is relevent to the current situation in Libya.

http://english.aljazeera.net/indepth/opinion/2011/03/2011315102826369980.html#

 

[swerve]

Obviously the Libyan air defence system has to be taken out first, . . .

Not obvious at all. It's not what was done when previous no-fly zones were enforced, & air force officers (including, IIRC, the USAF officer responsible for running the NFZ over Iraq at one time) have dismissed the suggestions made by politicians that it's necessary.

You react to threats from the air defences. If they keep quiet, don't send up any fighters or missiles, don't lock on with radars, then you leave them be.