No-fly zone over Libya

swerve

Super Moderator
Well, while i wouldn't necessarily agree with that in general, there is some stuff out there that is rather funny.
Official Libyan TV report:

Two blokes with guns, wearing immaculate Gadhafi-green headscarves, in a wide street with wide verges. One crouching, one prone, pointing guns along the street - both out in the open. A reporter, obviously tracked by a cameraman walking behind him, strolls casually across the open space towards the two men, who turn towards him & smile, & have a lengthy conversation with him, while he, his cameraman, & maybe a sound man all remain out in the open, in plain view of anyone who the gunmen might have been guarding against.

Supposedly during mopping-up operations in Zawiya. Obviously, staged in a safe, quiet, location.
 

sgtgunn

Defense Professional
Verified Defense Pro
From AP Article: "Gadhafi has between two and three dozen Russian-built Mil helicopter gunships, some of which have mounted the deadliest known attacks against the rebellion. The fast NATO fighter jets would have a hard time detecting and targeting the slow-moving, ground-hugging helicopters."

NATO could easily impose no-fly zone in Libya - Yahoo! News

How effective would NATO warplanes be in interdicting Libyan Mi-24 gunships?

I'm thinking in the relatively flat open Libyan terrain it would be easier than the article seems to imply. Didn't USAF A-10s shoot down an Mi-8 and BO-105 during the 1st Gulf War?

I would imagine that Italian, Spanish and USMC AV-8B Harrier IIs would be good Hind hunters.

Also arming the Libyan rebels with modern MANPADS systems like Stinger or Starstreak would make life very uncomfortable for the gunships.

Adrian
 

Ananda

The Bunker Group
Meanwhile the rebels continue to request a no-fly zone, and claim they control 90% of the country even as Gaddafi's troops retake Al-Zaviyah. The whole thing is starting to smell bad.
Preciesly what I said before. They (the rebels) keep boasting that they already surounded Khadafi's forces...they have more than 30,000 - 50,000 armed militias ready with regular army's that defected to topple the regime, they continue say Khadafi's days is numbered..however they keep bagging for no-fly zone.

Is the west ready to become Libyan Rebels Air Force..??

Again, technically the West can conduct effective no fly zone..well I've no doubt about that. Afterall Khadafi's Air Forces is less effective than what Saddam's used to have. However if we want to stay from Politics..well hard to do. Discussing No Fly zone much more related to 'Politicall will' rather than technical ones.

The west can take over Benghazi airfield any time since it's still in the rebels hand, and they (the rebels) will glad to do that. So no need for Cyprus or Grece air fields. Put a couple of CVN plus some preparations in Benghazi's airfield, then West can control much of Libyan airspaces.

But again..will the west willing to 'play' as the Libyan Rebels Air Forces ??
 

Beatmaster

New Member
Preciesly what I said before. They (the rebels) keep boasting that they already surounded Khadafi's forces...they have more than 30,000 - 50,000 armed militias ready with regular army's that defected to topple the regime, they continue say Khadafi's days is numbered..however they keep bagging for no-fly zone.

Is the west ready to become Libyan Rebels Air Force..??

Again, technically the West can conduct effective no fly zone..well I've no doubt about that. Afterall Khadafi's Air Forces is less effective than what Saddam's used to have. However if we want to stay from Politics..well hard to do. Discussing No Fly zone much more related to 'Politicall will' rather than technical ones.

The west can take over Benghazi airfield any time since it's still in the rebels hand, and they (the rebels) will glad to do that. So no need for Cyprus or Grece air fields. Put a couple of CVN plus some preparations in Benghazi's airfield, then West can control much of Libyan airspaces.

But again..will the west willing to 'play' as the Libyan Rebels Air Forces ??
Well i agree with the previous posters that the news is showing to much weird stuff, i mean most pictures, shots and photo's do not make any sense.
Rebels shooting in open air with a AK-47 claiming to shoot a airplane while the video clearly shows that there is not even a bird in a 100 mile radius lol.
However fact remains that even if news is being manipulated direct or indirect the situation is not going to get any better, not for the Liberian people, not for their government and not for the outside world.
If this goes seriously out of hand than you will have a major civil war, which might trigger a domino effect. Needles to say the whole region is one massive ticking time bomb.
There are in this situation to many what ifs and maybe or perhaps situations which makes things even more difficult.
Regardless if Gaddafies time is up or not and regardless if this whole thing is BS or what ever you wanna call it, people are dieing and serious fights have been reported and IMO for the sake of the region and all those people something must or should be done.
Because if this continues then you will see a civil war and the nation plummets into ruins which cannot be the objective here.....
Sorry for the somewhat one lined reply but what i am trying to point out is that this cannot continue either by stopping or supporting the rebels or by stopping/ supporting Gaddafi so pick one of two evils, as walk away and forget aint a option.
There you have it a huge dilemma where you have to pick one out of 2 evils not to mention the diplomatic and economic damage that will come from this.

Cheers:D

Side note: When NATO puts a no fly zone into effect then everything that flies whiteout a clear green light from the control center will be forced to the ground or eventually shot down there is nothing that Gaddafi could bring to the fight that would put NATO planes at serious risk (Not talking about the normal risks)
So those few hind choppers better stay in the hangar or they will make nice puzzle parts.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Well, while i wouldn't necessarily agree with that in general, there is some stuff out there that is rather funny.
The majority of what's coming out of the country is along those lines. This leads me to wonder whether real heavy fighting is going on at all. At the very least I think it has been severely exaggerated.
 

Beatmaster

New Member
The majority of what's coming out of the country is along those lines. This leads me to wonder whether real heavy fighting is going on at all. At the very least I think it has been severely exaggerated.
Well Feanor some serious fighting is being done as one of my friends has a uncle who worked at some oil installation in Libya he got picked up a week ago and has seen with his own eyes that this "Rebel vs Gaddafi" is not just some gun fight between 2 groups.
Its going hard and nasty where heavy weapons are being used.
So i can assure you that heavy fighting is happening as we speak.
As other sources say basically the same so its credible that the situation is pretty bad.
However you should not forget that if you are a rebel and you see a cnn crew behind you then its obvious that you are put on your rambo face and make it look good.
Ill bet that Gaddafi does the same.
However news might be manipulated but NATO AWACS have already proved that Gaddafi is using his air force against his people, so putting one and one together makes it pretty clear that Libya is the last place you wanna be right now.:D
 

kato

The Bunker Group
Verified Defense Pro
Its going hard and nasty where heavy weapons are being used.
Heavy weapons is a very relative term.

So far, all we're seeing is at most battalion-sized (usually rather company-sized) forces on either side clashing in infantry engagements, with a couple heavier weapon systems occasionally used for fire support of this infantry on both sides.

so putting one and one together makes it pretty clear that Libya is the last place you wanna be right now
I can think of plenty worse places in the world.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
It looks like I misread the Russian leadership, they just joined in on the sanctions against Libya. Russia press is also reporting heavy air strike against Ez Sidra, with major damage to the oil infrastructure in the port. Continued fighting around Ras-Lanuf and Ez-Zawiyah.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Ìåäâåäåâ íàêàçàë Êàääàôè: Ðîññèÿ ïðèñîåäèíèëàñü ê ñàíêöèÿì Ñîâáåçà ÎÎÍ ïðîòèâ Ëèâèè
France has just officially recognized the rebel "government" CNT as the only legitimate government in Libya right now and has announced the opening of an embassy in Bengasi , it has also been confirmed by Ali Essaoui the emisare of the CNT for Europe.

Direct : L'opposition libyenne demande l'aide de l'Europe - LeMonde.fr

http://www.elmundo.es/elmundo/2011/03/10/internacional/1299754614.html
 
Last edited:

STURM

Well-Known Member
Heavy weapons is a very relative term.
Not if one is on the receiving end :) .

Looking at the photos released by the various news agencies, a lot of ZSU's, RCL's and stuff are being used. I wonder how many of the GRAD's, that the Libyans used with such good effect against the Tanzanians, are in the hands of the rebels.
 

Beatmaster

New Member
It looks like I misread the Russian leadership, they just joined in on the sanctions against Libya. Russia press is also reporting heavy air strike against Ez Sidra, with major damage to the oil infrastructure in the port. Continued fighting around Ras-Lanuf and Ez-Zawiyah.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Ìåäâåäåâ íàêàçàë Êàääàôè: Ðîññèÿ ïðèñîåäèíèëàñü ê ñàíêöèÿì Ñîâáåçà ÎÎÍ ïðîòèâ Ëèâèè

I just was watching the dutch news and according to the dutch news Gaddafi has used 40+ Tanks in the latest attack (And some pantzer vehicles & artillery, while heavy air-strikes are bombing other regions of Libya.
So thats what i call heavy weapons considering the fact that the rebels have bee bee guns, there you go how much heavy weapons you want? Just joking.:D:D:D
Anyway if Russia joins the sanctions against Gaddafi then iam reasonable sure that further actions will be taken because one of the main issues was that Russia and China where against any action.
Now with the approval of Russia a UN mandate is more likely to happen as China will probably say yes to it as well while US, EU and Russia putting some sort of diplomatic pressure.
It seems that things are in motion and that Gaddafi is digging his own grave because the world is pretty tolerant but there comes a moment that its enough and this moment comes closer every minute.
I believe that his diplomats who where send to Brussels will manage to delay or stall things but the question is how long and what will EU do, because the majority of the EU is seriously considering to vote yes to a UN mandate which will include military actions and a no fly-zone.
Because the British and France government both pointed out that a no fly zone alone will not change that much, so the nations who are against actions are slowly turning around as they cannot ignore what in Libya happens. Still planning is in progress and things are still fragile at this point.
 

Beatmaster

New Member
Btw i was wondering, what options does Gaddafi has at this point? I mean serious options? And what road is he likely to take?
As i can imagine that he will try to avoid any intervention from the west, because that would mean game over.
So what real options does he? and would he be able to remain in power? if he wanted to?
 

kato

The Bunker Group
Verified Defense Pro
Looking at the photos released by the various news agencies, a lot of ZSU's, RCL's and stuff are being used.
Light weapons.

I wonder how many of the GRAD's, that the Libyans used with such good effect against the Tanzanians, are in the hands of the rebels.
A handful. Saw one used in a SPON gallery yesterday. Type 63 launchers, both towed and mounted on jeeps, seem to be far more plentiful in their hands.

So thats what i call heavy weapons considering the fact that the rebels have bee bee guns, there you go how much heavy weapons you want?
Scuds, Frogs, battalion-level rocket barrage fire, airforce actually flying more than ten sorties per day...

Now with the approval of Russia a UN mandate is more likely to happen as China will probably say yes to it as well while US, EU and Russia putting some sort of diplomatic pressure.
Unless African Union and Arab League both disagree. Germany's gonna vote in line with them, Portugal and Brazil probably too, and India's against it anyway. Meaning the resolution wouldn't have the necessary 9-vote majority.
 

STURM

Well-Known Member
Good effect? Who won? :D
Utimately, Gadaffi's grand adventure in Uganda, like in Chad, was a total disaster with Libyan lives squandered for nothing. Some of the Libyan militia units sent to Uganda were not even told they were going to see combat :smilie. According to a report, when the Libyan Grads was first used, it caused total panic amongst the Tanzanians on the receiving end.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
France has proposed strikes in support of the rebels against the Gaddafi government.

They've pulled it off. They've postured and created the perception of a fight long enough to gain legitimacy in international eyes. Whether or not they have it and are legitimate domestically is another issue altogether.

While this may indeed be the popular end of a corrupt regime, it may also be one set of power hungry local leaders replacing another. I'm not sure anything good will come of it.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: ÑÌÈ: Ñàðêîçè ïðåäëîæèò Åâðîïå íàíîñèòü òî÷å÷íûå àâèàóäàðû ïî Ëèâèè

Meanwhile Gaddafi has recaptured Ras-Lanuf.
 

STURM

Well-Known Member
While this may indeed be the popular end of a corrupt regime, it may also be one set of power hungry local leaders replacing another. I'm not sure anything good will come of it.
And it might also send the wrong signal to people in different countries in the region, also eager to overthrow governments that were never elected, that they can expect foreign intervention if a similiar scenario were to happen. Since coming to power Gadaffi has managed to survive multiple attempts to dispose him, but given the current situation I would be very surprised if he manages to pull it off again.

I'm very curious as to what the Western response would be if Gadaffi manages to turn the tide on the battlefield and recapture most of the ground he has lost to the rebels or if the victorious rebels turn out to be not as secular as Gadaffi and his regime.

What strikes me as very surprising is the speed in which certain countries have decided that an intervention/no fly zone is necessary.

I like Eric Margolis's take on the situation.

http://www.ericmargolis.com/political_commentaries/gadaffi-hangem-high.aspx

Robert Fisk's latest piece.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/w...secret-plan-to-arm-libyas-rebels-2234227.html
 

Beatmaster

New Member
And it might also send the wrong signal to people in different countries in the region, also eager to overthrow governments that were never elected, that they can expect foreign intervention if a similiar scenario were to happen. Since coming to power Gadaffi has managed to survive multiple attempts to dispose him, but given the current situation I would be very surprised if he manages to pull it off again.

I'm very curious as to what the Western response would be if Gadaffi manages to turn the tide on the battlefield and recapture most of the ground he has lost to the rebels or if the victorious rebels turn out to be not as secular as Gadaffi and his regime.

What strikes me as very surprising is the speed in which certain countries have decided that an intervention/no fly zone is necessary.

I like Eric Margolis's take on the situation.

Eric Margolis

Robert Fisk's latest piece.

America's secret plan to arm Libya's rebels - Middle East, World - The Independent
No offence or disrespect to you or to the original writers from the 2 links you provided.
But in those very interesting articles is written multiple times that the west is trying to "steal" Libya's premium oil.
And that the west is suddenly painting Gaddafi as a monster :

War fever over Libya has gripped the United States and Canada. After a hiatus of nine years, in which he was a useful ally to western interests, Col. Muammar Gadaffi is once again the man we love to hate.
“On to Libya! Down with the Tyrant of Tripoli!” That’s the latest hue and cry from North America’s right wingers, media, and neoconservative lynch mob. Once again there’s talk of war against a small, almost defenseless nation that can’t seriously fight back.

The right thinks it sees a golden opportunity in Libya’s current civil war to get rid of the unloved Muammar Gadaffi, “liberate” Libya’s high-grade oil, and to halt the wave uprisings now flaring across the Arab world.

We heard this same song about Iraq:
an evil dictator oppressing his people, seas of oil, arsenals of dangerous weapons.

President Barack Obama is nearing a decision to attack Libya and implement no-fly zones over it. US Marine amphibious units are nearing Libya’s coast.

Leaders of the US, Britain, France, and Germany who were happy to play footsie with Gadaffi and take his money and buy his premium oil now suddenly brand him a monster. There is enough hypocrisy over former ally Libya to float the US 6th Fleet.


Question who is killing all those people? correct Gaddafi.
Who is bombing his own oil rigs? correct Gaddafi.
Who is telling "untrue stories"? correct Gaddafi and partly the media as the info is sketchy at best.
And who asked for a No fly zone and military action? Correct Gaddafies own civvies.

So would you mind telling me who has said anything about taking oil or spreading bad stories like the thing that happened in Iraq?
This is a completely different situation, besides that there is not much oil to steal anyway as the oil rigs are for 80% western build , and part of a international trading system.

I mean and this might sound one lined but NO country or nation is allowed to use so much force against its civvies and no nation, or leader is allowed to start a genocide or partly genocides and if one does? then the international community will respond to it with whatever options they have.
Why would this be any different with Libya? specially when the civvies asking for help.
The opposition is asking for help.
So yes the articles are worth a read and some of it is true, or based upon facts but its mainly propaganda as i cannot find a other word for it.
Naah not propaganda ...lets say little one sided.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Question who is killing all those people? correct Gaddafi.
Everyone knew what and who he was a long time ago. The reaction to it here and now is purely opportunistic.

Who is bombing his own oil rigs? correct Gaddafi.
Who is telling "untrue stories"? correct Gaddafi and partly the media as the info is sketchy at best.
Partly the media? I think we've established that we can't particularly trust much of what comes out of there.

And who asked for a No fly zone and military action? Correct Gaddafies own civvies.
Which "civvies"? Remember anyone who's not wearing a uniform is essentially a civilian. It doesn't mean that the majority of Libyans want to see a no fly zone. Just because there are certain ones who do doesn't prove anything.

I mean and this might sound one lined but NO country or nation is allowed to use so much force against its civvies
When they took up arms and seized army depots (and accepted tons of soldiers-deserters with weapons, into their midst), and then turned those weapons on the Gaddafi regime they stopped being civilians. They became combatants. This is not to say they were unprovoked or unjustified in doing so. But lets face it, if tomorrow the population of Texas had giant riots, took up arms, seized army depots, and mass numbers of Texas National Guard, and US Army deserted and joined their ranks, the US federal response would hardly be one of "hey lets all have a cup of tea and talk about our feelings". The US Civil War is a good example of what would happen.

and no nation, or leader is allowed to start a genocide or partly genocides and if one does? then the international community will respond to it with whatever options they have.
What's the definition of genocide? ;) And how is what Gaddafi is doing fall under that definition? Before throwing words around why don't you double check on their meanings.

Why would this be any different with Libya? specially when the civvies asking for help.
See above.

The opposition is asking for help.
Now we have a different story, no? Not all civilians are asking for intervention, a very specific group of civilians that has a stake in overthrowing the current regime. Who's to say they will be better, or are deserving of said help?

I have no love for Gaddafi, but have serious reservations about welcoming the opposition with open arms. Lets see what they do once in power (if in power) before we start committing ourselves to them.
 

Beatmaster

New Member
Everyone knew what and who he was a long time ago. The reaction to it here and now is purely opportunistic.



Partly the media? I think we've established that we can't particularly trust much of what comes out of there.



Which "civvies"? Remember anyone who's not wearing a uniform is essentially a civilian. It doesn't mean that the majority of Libyans want to see a no fly zone. Just because there are certain ones who do doesn't prove anything.



When they took up arms and seized army depots (and accepted tons of soldiers-deserters with weapons, into their midst), and then turned those weapons on the Gaddafi regime they stopped being civilians. They became combatants. This is not to say they were unprovoked or unjustified in doing so. But lets face it, if tomorrow the population of Texas had giant riots, took up arms, seized army depots, and mass numbers of Texas National Guard, and US Army deserted and joined their ranks, the US federal response would hardly be one of "hey lets all have a cup of tea and talk about our feelings". The US Civil War is a good example of what would happen.



What's the definition of genocide? ;) And how is what Gaddafi is doing fall under that definition? Before throwing words around why don't you double check on their meanings.



See above.



Now we have a different story, no? Not all civilians are asking for intervention, a very specific group of civilians that has a stake in overthrowing the current regime. Who's to say they will be better, or are deserving of said help?

I have no love for Gaddafi, but have serious reservations about welcoming the opposition with open arms. Lets see what they do once in power (if in power) before we start committing ourselves to them.
What's the definition of genocide? ;) well killing in mass numbers would fit the description or not? anyway the news has labeled it a starting geno.....

And what i mean with the opposition is that its not only a large group of civvies that ask for help but also the political key figures as the news pointed out so it goes a little deeper then just a group of people.

But i agree with what you said as i did explain myself a bit wrong for that iam sorry, i was just pointing out that we just do not know what the longterm game plan is going to be so is it going to get any better? or is it going down the drain?
So regardless what the outcome is going to be fact remains that you have to choose one out of multiple evils/ unknowns and only time can tell if it was the right thing.
But the situation as it is cannot continue so the only thing we might be able to do is lend a helping hand and try to set things right and hopefully the future runs its way as it should.
And if this helping hand means military action then so be it.
I do not have love for Gaddafi and i do not have love for military action but talks alone are not going to stop anything another thing is that this is the EU's backyard so walking away would make NATO and EU basic's and moral values that EU and NATO have been preaching look like a good night bed story.

Cheers
 
Top