The options are endless for a component of air combat capability but they have to be integrated into the overall acquistition and geo-strategic framework.
Totally agree with your statements. I don't believe there is a "one fit for all solution" out there for the NZDF. Eg the answer isn't soley it will be either reformed air combat capability, or either UCAV's, or either arming the P-3's or either arming the transport helos. The answer has to be a mix of 2 or possibly 3 of these options (of course the ideal is all 4 of the above but for a small defence force on a limited budget that isn't realistic ... and certainly not only one option as despite being small, NZ can do better than that).
IMO one option does have to be UAV's and ultimately UCAV's - but as you point out, there is no one fit for all UAV/UCAV solution for NZ needs. In the meantime though I would suggest starting of with UAV's for long range maritime patrolling to supplement the P-3's (but not replace them, one critical success factor of the P-3 for the pollies and public is the ability to drop supplies to missing yachties etc. This public service benefit has helped keep the P-3 capability on the books so to speak. Also in the meantime the Army needs UAV ISR capabilities on the battlefield. So these two options, if it were up to me, need to get fast-tracked in the upcoming Defence Whitepaper. This will require some investment (IMO around $300-500M)?
IMO a second option of arming the P-3's with stand-off weaponry should progress also (which would be relatively cheap anyway eg sub $100M), because NZ has invested alot into the P-3's capabilities, are the sorts of aircraft that would be deployed to SEA and the Gulf, and frankly lack any modern fire-power to back up the new ISR capabilities. Unless NZ were to reform a proper functional ACF to work in with the P-3 (eg P-3 vectoring in the fast jets to targets) then arming the P-3's could be dismissed (but as well as a functional ACF we'd need long range air-air refueling tankers etc, so all of this wouldn't be viable just right now because of other budget priorities etc). So go ahead with arming the P-3's now and then by the 2020's when the P-3's need to be retired NZ could maintain this capability with armed UCAV's etc.
IMO a third option does have to be some multi-role platform fast manned jets. In accepting that the economic situation and other defence priorities means we cannot restore a proper functional ACF in the interim, I, like most of us here, accept the need then for a few airframes to conduct pilot training, naval and army support training. The options here as you say are varied eg F16's, TA50's, maybe just maybe some F18's with the RAAF if feasible etc. IMO NZ does need fast jets - UAV's/UCAV's cannot do all these army/navy training roles and frankly the army/navy will find themselves in situations where they need to defend against both UAV's and fast air - so again IMO so manned jets is still important for NZ. And as said before, in time, as finances allow, this role could be expanded if there is a proven need etc.
IMO armed helos - not critical. Yes I do like the way that the A109LUH can be up-armed with air-ground & air-air missiles, rockets and MG pods, but realistically will the A109LUH ever be deployed in the battlefield? I doubt it. The NH90 would of course be deployed, but we have so few and need them critically for troop transport. If we had 2-3 times more NH90's we could have capacity to up-arm some but we don't have that many. The NH90 has the usual door guns anyway. But would could be nice one day is some sort of stabalised MG for greater accuracy in support of ground forces etc.
As for the peaceniks scaremongering with UCAV's - let's not worry about them, they would be worried about anything that can carry weaponry anyway. I'd say they are merely taking advantage of public lack of awareness of exactly what UAV's/UCAV's are anyway, hence a simple public information campaign on the various abilities and roles they play, in support of the NZDF on deployment and for EEZ patrolling would counter them.
