South Korean navy ship sunk by North?

[Herodotus]

That's a bit tricky to answer. It was south of the line, but North Korea doesn't recognize the line.

How so? Is the "line" not the 38th parallel north agreed to in the cease-fire by the warring parties?

 

[alkemita]

How so? Is the "line" not the 38th parallel north agreed to in the cease-fire by the warring parties?

Well, as I understand it, and I'm far from an expert on the matter, the cease-fire only specified the land part of the boundaries. The sea part that's recognised by the ROK is the pre-Korean war line, which the NorKs don't recognise.

 

[Herodotus]

Well, as I understand it, and I'm far from an expert on the matter, the cease-fire only specified the land part of the boundaries. The sea part that's recognised by the ROK is the pre-Korean war line, which the NorKs don't recognise.

Well, that makes sense I suppose. Would explain why there are more naval clashes then land clashes. Thank you for the clarification.

 

[Feanor]

Well, that makes sense I suppose. Would explain why there are more naval clashes then land clashes. Thank you for the clarification.

Also on land there are huge concentrations of troops from both sides. No room for messing around. In the sea it's not quite like that.

 

[swerve]

How so? Is the "line" not the 38th parallel north agreed to in the cease-fire by the warring parties?

No. The 38th parallel is the pre-war line. The cease-fire line is mostly a little north of it, but just south of 38 north where it reaches the west coast. It's where the armies were when the fighting stopped.

The maritime boundaries are therefore complicated, particularly in the west, where there are many islands. The UN defined a line in 1953, but North Korea has never recognised it.
[ame="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Northern_Limit_Line"]Northern Limit Line - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia@@AMEPARAM@@/wiki/File:Northern_Limit_Line.svg" class="image"><img alt="" src="http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/5/5e/Northern_Limit_Line.svg/350px-Northern_Limit_Line.svg.png"@@AMEPARAM@@commons/thumb/5/5e/Northern_Limit_Line.svg/350px-Northern_Limit_Line.svg.png[/ame]

 

[Firn]

It is indeed hard to believe that an area, which was possibly heavily mined in older days and which was patrolled by the SK navy was not object to close demining scrutiny. If the SK navy did act responsibly there seem to remain only two probable events:

a) An old, fixed mine was displaced by some accident and shifted into the path of the ship

b) A new mine was floated into the disputed area patrolled by South Korea. (A torpedo would just compound NK intentions.)


Chances are high that multiple mines were involved, especially in the latter case and sweeps in areas into which said mines could have floated due to the currents might yield interesting insights. Indeed read the following excerpt:
Firn

S. Korean President Visits Waters Where Ship Sank

SEOUL, South Korea — President Lee Myung-bak became the first South Korean head of state to visit the disputed western waters off the Korean Peninsula, urging rescuers on Tuesday to continue searching for 46 sailors still believed to be trapped in a naval vessel that sank after a mysterious explosion four days earlier.

The sinking has focused the South’s fears on North Korea. It occurred along the maritime border in the Yellow Sea, which has been the scene of bloody naval skirmishes in recent years. The North has repeatedly warned of a “clash” and “retaliation” in these waters.

Further interesting details emerge:

... and his office said he had urged the military to ensure the safety of the divers. They have struggled with rapid currents and poor underwater visibility in the effort to reach a chunk of the ship that lies mired in mud 132 feet down.

...

The political pressure remained high on the government and the military, which have been unable to offer a convincing explanation for the explosion that broke up the 1,200-ton corvette, the Cheonan. The mystery may not be solved for days. A crane was slowly being taken to the site to recover the ship.

So far nothing can proved or ruled out.

“The government or our Defense Ministry has never said it ruled out the possibility of North Korean involvement,” Defense Minister Kim Tae-young of South Korea said Monday during a grilling in Parliament.

Asked about mines there, Mr. Kim said that it was “possible” that the Cheonan was hit by one of thousands of mines North Korea deployed near its coasts during the Korean War, from 1950 to 1953. He also kept open the possibility that a North Korean submarine might have launched a torpedo, an initial focus of suspicion. North Korea has used difficult-to-detect submersibles to carry spies into the South.

A great deal of speculation is the obvious result.

Other theories mentioned at Parliament and in domestic media included an on-board saboteur and something exploding inside the warship, which reportedly carried torpedoes, depth charges, missiles and other weaponry.

South Korea’s military has often been accused of whitewashing investigations into soldiers’ deaths, adding complexity to the Cheonan mystery.

The best possible political outcome might be that negligence could be determined as the root cause of this tragic loss of live. However a NK attack can not yet be ruled out.


Firn

 

[blackhawknz]

(Reuters)-Yoon Duk-Yong, co-head of the South's investigation team, said that the steel plate of the Cheonan's port side was curved inward, adding the warship seemed to have received a powerful impact on that side.


Mine or Torpedo ? 10% Mine 90% Torpedo =100% North Korea Torpedo.

a wars brewing

 

[fretburner]

Nokor is claiming it's all propaganda for Sokor so they can start a war.

I wonder if Sokor will go to the UN Security Council once they've completed their investigation, and/or if there are third parties joining the investigation?

 

[StevoJH]

Nokor is claiming it's all propaganda for Sokor so they can start a war.

I wonder if Sokor will go to the UN Security Council once they've completed their investigation, and/or if there are third parties joining the investigation?

Doubt it, if there is a war and North Korea collapses, think about how hard it would be to integrate the two together. Remember the people in the north have had propaganda drumed into their heads for the last 60 years and on top of that they are all poor, starving, could the south korean infrustructure survive the influx of refugee's?

 

[rmnp_ccc]

Doubt it, if there is a war and North Korea collapses, think about how hard it would be to integrate the two together. Remember the people in the north have had propaganda drumed into their heads for the last 60 years and on top of that they are all poor, starving, could the south korean infrustructure survive the influx of refugee's?

Just going on numbers, there are approx. 28 million North Koreans and 24 million South Koreans (world bank.com). Compare that to 17 million East Germans before the wall fell (populstat.info). Whether ROKs infrastructure is more capable than the Federal German Republic, I can't say, but ROK is less than half the size that the Bundesrepublik was.

Not really a strong point on my part because I see North Korea as a shadow compared to the standard of living, industrial capacity, and overall acceptance of "the people over the border" that East Germany had.

 

[swerve]

Just going on numbers, there are approx. 28 million North Koreans and 24 million South Koreans (world bank.com). Compare that to 17 million East Germans before the wall fell (populstat.info). Whether ROKs infrastructure is more capable than the Federal German Republic, I can't say, but ROK is less than half the size that the Bundesrepublik was.

The World Bank website actually says that South Korea (The Republic of Korea) had a population of 48.6 million in 2008, & North Korea (The Democratic Peoples Republic of Korea) 23.9 million.

North Korea
South Korea

 

[rmnp_ccc]

The World Bank website actually says that South Korea (The Republic of Korea) had a population of 48.6 million in 2008, & North Korea (The Democratic Peoples Republic of Korea) 23.9 million.

North Korea
South Korea

My mistake! Thank you for the correction!

 

[ccL1]

From Yahoo.com: Activist: NKoreans fired torpedo at SKorean ship

A Seoul-based activist alleged Tuesday that a squad of North Korean soldiers was behind last month's deadly sinking of a South Korean frigate. The activist cited a North Korean military officer claiming knowledge of the plot.

The unidentified officer said a North Korean semi-submersible vessel carrying 13 crewmembers fired a torpedo at the Cheonan, according to Choi Sung-yong, who said he had spoken to the officer by telephone several times in recent days.

The claim could not be verified, and the Joint Chiefs of Staff in Seoul said it could not confirm the allegation.

An explosion split the 1,200-ton Cheonan in two on March 26 while the ship was on a routine patrolling mission in the western waters near the tense maritime border with North Korea. Fifty-eight sailors were rescued, but at least 38 died and eight are missing.

The military officer told Choi the soldiers are being hailed as heroes in North Korea, Choi told The Associated Press.

Seoul has not openly blamed Pyongyang for the sinking of the Cheonan, one of South Korea's worst naval disasters. North Korea has denied involvement.

However, communist North Korea has a record of attacking the South, its wartime rival, and suspicion of North Korean involvement is growing in Seoul. South Korean officials said they were investigating the possibility that a North Korean mine or torpedo struck the warship.

Take it with a grain of salt as it isn't official, but this activist claims to have spoken to a North Korean military official who claims to have knowledge of the plot.

Basically, semi-submersible sub (mini-sub) with 13 crew members. They claim it was a torpedo attack.

If this is corroborated by the South Korean government, this could be an explosive situation (no pun intended). Doing nothing for the sake of peace would encourage the North to continue such activities and could weaken political support for the Lee Myung-bak government. Meanwhile, taking belligerent action could enflame further conflict, something that America and China definitely don't want at this time.

And I question the South's ability to fight a war at this time. As a Korean person myself, I have many friends who are serving and have served in the Korean military even up to last year (friends in the Marines, air force, and army...no navy friends unfortunately). They all collectively question the South's abilities. Not that the South has no abilities, but if it turned into a war of attrition, even they feel that it's entirely a grey area without US involvement.

We'll see though. First post!

 

[Bonza]

From Yahoo.com: Activist: NKoreans fired torpedo at SKorean ship



Take it with a grain of salt as it isn't official, but this activist claims to have spoken to a North Korean military official who claims to have knowledge of the plot.

Basically, semi-submersible sub (mini-sub) with 13 crew members. They claim it was a torpedo attack.

If this is corroborated by the South Korean government, this could be an explosive situation (no pun intended). Doing nothing for the sake of peace would encourage the North to continue such activities and could weaken political support for the Lee Myung-bak government. Meanwhile, taking belligerent action could enflame further conflict, something that America and China definitely don't want at this time.

And I question the South's ability to fight a war at this time. As a Korean person myself, I have many friends who are serving and have served in the Korean military even up to last year (friends in the Marines, air force, and army...no navy friends unfortunately). They all collectively question the South's abilities. Not that the South has no abilities, but if it turned into a war of attrition, even they feel that it's entirely a grey area without US involvement.

We'll see though. First post!

Interesting to get your perspective on this, thanks for that. And welcome to the forum

 

[fretburner]

Doubt it, if there is a war and North Korea collapses, think about how hard it would be to integrate the two together. Remember the people in the north have had propaganda drumed into their heads for the last 60 years and on top of that they are all poor, starving, could the south korean infrustructure survive the influx of refugee's?

But can third parties get involved with the Investigation? This might become a he said/she said thingy. Although, I'm sure Sokor would be able to present hard evidence.

I don't know of any country who'd be willing to take part of this though. I'm not even sure if the UN would do anything about it -- not after all the sanctions against them already?

 

[Firn]

Interesting to get your perspective on this, thanks for that. And welcome to the forum

Agreed. Welcome.

I hope that the investigation is able to reach a clear conclusion on the exact cause. Hopefully it was a tragic incident.

It is tragic that the Korean people have to face each other with arms in their hands instead of being embraced as one nation.


Firn

 

[uuname]

But can third parties get involved with the Investigation? This might become a he said/she said thingy. Although, I'm sure Sokor would be able to present hard evidence.

Outside experts have been called in. It seems South Korea is determined to do this investigation properly, which is probably a very wise move.

Meanwhile, three Australian experts arrived in Korea Tuesday to join efforts to determine the cause of the Cheonan's sinking. Military authorities are considering a memorandum of understanding binding countries that are sending experts to join a civilian-military investigation team to a set of guidelines.

The Chosun Ilbo (English Edition): Daily News from Korea - Bent Cheonan Hull Points to Power of Explosion

 

[blackhawknz]

If it is found to be of north korean doing , and south korea sits there and does jack****....... i think the country needs to be given a freakn medal or somethnk , beacuse other countrys in the world would of already jumped the gun and be in there.But in saying the if North Korean is found to be the cause i dont think they can get away with it lightly with a little slap on the hands from NATO blah blah,beacause it will only make them feel specail again and make them blooder....

Im no naval expert but ,Could the North Koreans have towed a Mine Behind there mini subs and delpoyed them in ships path and making it look like a case of real bad luck...

 

[stoker]

Yes, it is going to be very interesting to se what the outcome will be if it is proven beyond any doubt the N.Korea was responsible for the sinking of the S.Korean warship, and subsquent loss of life of the S.Korean sailors.

I doubt very much that there will be a full blown war between the South and the North.

I have no doubt whatsoever the if push comes to shove that the South has the capacity to defeat the North.

But, the cost to the South in both military and civilian lives, and the economic cost would be immense.

We just have to look at the immense financial cost that West Germany had to endure when the collapse of the USSR led to the 'peacful re-union' with East Germany. The German economy is still bearing the costs involved.

To absorb North Korea in to a unified Korea would most probably take at least 50 years. The South Korean population would not be happy little people. The West Germans certainly weren't. when they found out what East German's intergration was going to cost them.

The other major factor in the equation are the main players, the USA and China, although the S.Koreans could win the war on their own any help from the USA would be a major advantage, but the USA has the Afghan/Irak terrorist Wars ongoing and certainly has NO wish to become involved in another Korean conflict, plus the USA now has a 'weak' POTUS at the helm.

China would not want to get involved militarily in an S.Korean/N.Korean punch up, they would have nothing to gain. But, they could finish up with a massive N.Korean refugee surge of million's of N.Koreans fleeing from the war, and on the other hand at the moment they have a 'communist' N.Korean neighbour, they may not be so happy with a 'democratic' S.Korean neighbour.

I believe if the N.Korean's are proven guilty, S.Korea will wimp it and let the U.N. handle the whole matter.

The loss of the fine young S.Korean sailors and the trauma to their loved ones and families will amount to nought.

 

[fretburner]

Outside experts have been called in. It seems South Korea is determined to do this investigation properly, which is probably a very wise move.

The Chosun Ilbo (English Edition): Daily News from Korea - Bent Cheonan Hull Points to Power of Explosion

And now, their intelligence community said it was a North Korean torpedo attack: Sokor Warship hit by Nokor Torpedo

"It's our military intelligence's assessment that North Korean submarines attacked the ship with a heavy torpedo," the source said, adding that the subs were armed with torpedoes with 200-kilogram (440-pound) warheads.

Should the investigation support this claim, what will South Korea do? Surely this isn't a reason to go to war? Or is it?

Come to think of it, they're still technically at war with each other, so maybe the question should be, will Sokor escalate this war?