Which country is Malaysia's main threat?
Beyond the historically based answer by STRUM, it also depends on who you ask in Malaysia. There some difference in opinions amongst different groups of Malaysians. As a Singaporean, I'll rather not say more and let the different Malaysians explain it from their respective perspectives.
Is it Singapore, Vietnam, Thailand or China?
1. Short answer, focusing on immediate threats :-
Right now the largest realistic threat to Indonesia, Malaysia and Singapore is from non-state actors like terrorist groups. This of course includes the Jemaah Islamiyah, which is a regional organization (see link to
latest news and there is also a current terror alert on the
Malacca Strait).
2. Longer answer, looking at it from a geopolitical perspective :-
East Malaysia shares a long porous land border with Indonesia and a border with the oil rich state of Brunei (there is some over lapping EEZ claims); and West Malaysia also shares a border with Thailand (in the past, the Malayan communist party used to operate at that border). BTW, West Malaysia is connected to Singapore island by 2 causeways (for some years the was a dispute over the ownership of an island lighthouse was decided at the ICJ and other bilateral irritants that both parties are trying to resolve) and also shares maritime borders with Indonesia (and there is some maritime boundary disputes, some areas were resolved but others are still subject to ongoing discussions).
Further, there are also conflicting EEZ claims in the South China Sea (that relate to the claims in the Spratley islands) that also involves Philippines (on top of EEZ issues, some in the Philippines still claim Sabah and in the past some Philippine rebel groups have crossed over to conduct kidnaps), Vietnam, China and Taiwan. China has acceded to the ASEAN Treaty of Amity and Friendship - so in theory China does not threaten war but their claims are rather larger in scope that recognized by the others states.
I mean if Malaysia AF main problem is budget constraint, why don't they go for some JF-17 and used the money saved for more F18/SU30?
This issue has been discussed. May I suggest that you read the
RMAF thread (at least the last 10 to 15 pages) - the Malaysians do not need more complexity in their logistics and are not very happy with their current situation (see also posts
#14 and
#46 in this thread, which deals with why I would not recommend the JF-17s even for a country like Iraq).
The Malaysians currently operate 8 F/A-18Ds (some say there are 7 active F/A-18Ds & 1 stored), 10 Mig-29Ns (from the original 18 - 2 crashed and they find it not economical to operate the other 6),18 Su-30MKMs, some F-5s and an assortment of other aircraft - please stop suggesting another aircraft type from a yet another country that does not have a current fighter export track record with the Malaysians - they could do with less types in such small numbers. You do realise that the Malaysians have to stock both American and Russian munitions now. To purchase the JF-17 would mean that they would have to stock Chinese munitions too.
As STURM said, RMAF remains Western oriented. Malaysia is a member of the
FPDA and have tradition of training with the Australians and also with the Americans. As such, the West remain as attractive training partners, though the Malaysians do get a bit of help from the Indians with regards to the Sukhois and China has also offered to supply parts for the type but their influence is limited.
