To raise the question of deadlines and funding again, if the PAK-FA is delayed (as it's likely to be), I would think it's natural for more Su-35S to be ordered for the VVS. Granted, the VVS themselves would much rather have more PAK-FA, and less Su-35S, but the procurement decisions aren't made at that level so they will be happy to take whatever they get. And given that the market for the Su-35S is not all that large (after all it's not going to China or India), these additional VVS orders might be necessary to keep the project afloat.
I mean so far we have rumors of exports to Libya and that's about it. The earlier rumors of Venezuelan purchases seem to have fizzled, with the oil prices drop, and the economic meltdown last year. China won't buy the plane as a whole, and Russia has refused to export components. India won't buy the plane, although some parts may find their way into MKI upgrades. This leaves a very small market. Vietnam, if it purchases more, will likely opt for Su-30 variants, although it's not impossible that they should order Su-35s. Indonesia already operates two types of Flankers, and in very small numbers. Again adding a third one to the mix doesn't seem likely or worthwhile. Not to mention money is once again an issue. The Su-35 is out of the Brazilian tender. This leaves it with very modest export potential.
What are your thoughts on the issue? Could the VVS end up dedicated to too many types? With over two regiments of Su-35S, upwards of 8 regiments of Su-34, several regiments of MiG-35 (I'm pretty sure they will be the LFI requirement, as at this point another new project is practically out of the question), and a number of PAK-FA this could look problematic.
As it stands the VVS (before the current reforms) had 5 regiments of MiG-31 (most likely to be replaced by PAK-FA in the long run), 5 regiments of MiG-29, 7 regiments of Su-27, and 10 regiments of Su-24. Not counting recon variants, or AVMF units. This leaves us with at least 2(+) regiments of Su-35S, 5 regiments of MiG-35, and something like 9-10 regiments of PAK-FA. Possibly less. And this is granted the very optimistic assumption that no further size cuts come. Otherwise PAK-FA orders could shrink even more. Especially of Su-35 purchases displace it.
I guess this is a bit of rant, but the point I was coming to, is that 1) funding could become an issue as the numbers ordered turn out to be relatively small, 2) it could hit the export market sooner then expected, and 3) the VVS might be looking at a problem with not only size, but also types in service.
I mean so far we have rumors of exports to Libya and that's about it. The earlier rumors of Venezuelan purchases seem to have fizzled, with the oil prices drop, and the economic meltdown last year. China won't buy the plane as a whole, and Russia has refused to export components. India won't buy the plane, although some parts may find their way into MKI upgrades. This leaves a very small market. Vietnam, if it purchases more, will likely opt for Su-30 variants, although it's not impossible that they should order Su-35s. Indonesia already operates two types of Flankers, and in very small numbers. Again adding a third one to the mix doesn't seem likely or worthwhile. Not to mention money is once again an issue. The Su-35 is out of the Brazilian tender. This leaves it with very modest export potential.
What are your thoughts on the issue? Could the VVS end up dedicated to too many types? With over two regiments of Su-35S, upwards of 8 regiments of Su-34, several regiments of MiG-35 (I'm pretty sure they will be the LFI requirement, as at this point another new project is practically out of the question), and a number of PAK-FA this could look problematic.
As it stands the VVS (before the current reforms) had 5 regiments of MiG-31 (most likely to be replaced by PAK-FA in the long run), 5 regiments of MiG-29, 7 regiments of Su-27, and 10 regiments of Su-24. Not counting recon variants, or AVMF units. This leaves us with at least 2(+) regiments of Su-35S, 5 regiments of MiG-35, and something like 9-10 regiments of PAK-FA. Possibly less. And this is granted the very optimistic assumption that no further size cuts come. Otherwise PAK-FA orders could shrink even more. Especially of Su-35 purchases displace it.
I guess this is a bit of rant, but the point I was coming to, is that 1) funding could become an issue as the numbers ordered turn out to be relatively small, 2) it could hit the export market sooner then expected, and 3) the VVS might be looking at a problem with not only size, but also types in service.