Sorry for the delay in response. A holiday up north pushed things back, and there was quite a bit to absorb from the post.
Though Tod – a lot of what you say is correct – but in fairness the assumptions are based on current manpower levels – I take the two ministers at their word that their aim is to build up the Reserve Force from 2000 to the levels they had 10 years ago in 5 years and 20 years ago in 10 years. So we are looking to initially triple the AR size to 6000. Dr Mapp has said this to my face a few months ago when I bailed him up at a political function. Ms Roy has said similar to the media. The other point is that I get the feeling you are considering that we would be deploying companies for Chp VII level stuff as per the buildup-builddown cycle you describe – however I don’t think we would have two Chp VII’s going on at the same time. You possibly are partially underestimating the NZDF by saying that we could not do two concurrent Sealift movements. Granted I take the point that two Chp VII / Combat sealifts concurrently is a tall order - however we could do in my view what is most likely – move a company group into a low intensity conflict environment ala ET and also do a Tsunami relief operation ala Samoa. The RNZAF will also be there helping. That situation will happen probably on occasion and we could handle it just fine - we have already even without a sealift ship at times. I do not think two Chapter VII level ops at the same time would be likely. If it did happen we would make the call to take care of the one closest to us first, then worry about the second. However you can be rest assured that we would bust a gut to do all we can. We are coping with the PRT and SAS in A/stan, RAMSI with an enhanced TF platoon, a company in Timor, and we managed to do the Tsunami relief job in Samoa and Tonga. Also the NZDF more and more is a joint op in terms of our Chp VI and HSM missions. So when we do those things it is a tri-force set up. 1 Commando Squadron is a purple unit Navy, Air Force and Army for instance. The Commando is an expansion of the CTTAG – New Zealand has to have a CT Black role that can cope with Maritime and Urban environments in particular – we are holding a couple a major world events in the next couple of years. The Rugby World Cup for example is a very big deal involving 24 nations. More people watch a RWC final worldwide than a Super Bowl or World Series. The Commando Squadron is for domestic use and not for deployment – it is pure CT and not the Green Role. It is similar to the unit set up for the Sydney Olympics – it is not a local version of the Royal Marines. Anyway moving on.
Actually Mr. C, you are incorrect. My (current) opposition to the NZDF acquiring a 2nd lift ship is in fact based upon 3 assumptions, all inter-related in effect.
The first assumption is that the personnel situation within the NZDF as a whole, and Army specifically would remain essentially the same.
The second assumption is that NZ still deploys Defence personnel in numbers, types and locations are it does currently. Even with some or all of the NZDF deployments being tri-service, that still means nearly 10% of Defence personnel are away on deployments. This effects training schedules and cycles, leaves, personnel available for additional deployments, in short, everything. An additional and related concern about the number of deployments that NZ participates in is NZ's ability to respond and support NZDF personnel if their deployment should go all pear-shaped.
The third assumption is that the NZDF budget allocation remains essentially the same as it does currently, ~0.6% GDP or ~NZ$1.5 billion in real terms.
With these assumptions in place, there would IMO be better places for NZ to spend the ~NZ$100 million to purchase a sistership to Canterbury, or the ~NZ$200 million+ to purchase a small LPD or LHD. One of the places where IMO it would make sense to spend it is on Army, specifically to raise the numbers of Regular and TF personnel. Once there were more personnel as well as supporting assets in the other services, then perhaps a second liftship would be sensible. If another liftship were then to be considered, I would argue against a sistership of the Canterbury. IMV, the only thing really going for Canterbury as a liftship is the low cost, and I also believe that one gets what one pays for...
As for my basing troop deployments on activities all at Chapter VII... Yes, and at the same time, no. From what I have seen and read, even for normal, non-combat deployments, there is a significant amount of time involved in preparing for and returning from overseas deployments. In fact, some of what I have come across suggests that for combat deployments, the workups prior to and the rest & refit/replacement period after a combat deployment should each be twice as long as the actual combat deployment in duration. The other element though has to do with the (hopefully) small possibility that any given deployment could end up degrading into a Chapter VII deployment. Again IMO it is better prepared for a tough fight and be on a peaceful, friendly deployment than be expecting an easy operation and encountering tough adversaries.
Can someone provide more information on NZ's Commando Squadron/Company? I am principally interested in finding out the approximate size and intended role/usage. For instance, is it intended to be something comparable to Australia's 2nd Commando regiment (IIRC the former 4 RAR) which is a direct action force? Or is it intended to have a strictly domestic CT role?
Also, does anyone have any additional information on the proposed or suggested Rapid Reaction Force? As I had indicated previously, I have some reservations about the NZDF attempting to maintain a rapid reaction force, given the assets currently available to draw upon.
My interest and concern regarding a Kiwi Rapid Reaction Force stem from a US rapid reaction force and how it was operated and maintained. The US 82nd Airborne Division, essentially from the time it returned to the US from the war in Europe during WWII, up until the US began restructing the US Army in the 1990's was largely kept in strategic reserve as a rapid reaction force. Operating from Fort Bragg/Pope AFB in North Carolina, USA the 82nd Airborne would maintain a regiment on constant alert, able to deploy anywhere in the world within 24 hours. The ready regiment would maintain the alert status for a 30 day period before the regiment would stand down and another regiment would stand up as the ready regiment. IIRC during this period, the 82nd Airborne operated 4 regiments, the 325th, 504th, 505th and 508th Parachute Infantry Regiments (PIR).
My questions and concerns for a Kiwi Rapid Reaction Force amount to how large it would be, how quickly it should be able to deploy, how far away it can deploy, how it would deploy, how long it would need to operate before being replaced or reinforced, and what it would deploy for.
As can be extrapolated from the example of the 82nd Airborne Division, in order to have a force constantly at the ready for deployment, a significantly larger pool of personnel is required to main the force. In effect, if the NZDF wanted to have a company-level RRF I would expect that a battalion-sized body of personnel would need to be kept aside to support the RRF personnel rotations.
However you can be rest assured that we would bust a gut to do all we can.
I have no doubt that if things went pear-shaped, the NZDF would go all out to do everything it could. My fear though is that the NZDF would indeed 'bust a gut' in doing so, that sort of injury, while not immediately fatal would grow progressively worse until it was. In the case of the NZDF I can foresee cases where personnel and equipment would strain to keep up with the pace of activities until they were overtaxed. Once that begins to occur, even less personnel and equipment would be available for operations because there would be injuries, equipment would be down and requiring repair, etc. As I had posted before, this is where the effects of systemic issues would begin to emerge, which is one of the things which I have been trying to get some Kiwis to realise so that they (the systemic issues) can be rectified prior to them causing serious problems, or worse.
-Cheers
PS Two things, I am glad that NZ is going to attempt to boost the numbers of Reserve/TF personnel, as that will swell the numbers potentially available. Additionally, could someone please post a link to the section describing the different Chapters I-VII of activities... I have read it, but I cannot remember where and wish to re-familiarize myself with the differences.
