UK Government Ponders nuclear submarine fleet reduction
defpro.com | Yesterday, British Prime Minister Gordon Brown confirmed to reporters that he will use today’s speech before the United Nations Security Council to signal his willingness to reduce his nation’s fleet of ballistic nuclear missile submarines as part of a new global pact on nuclear weapons. According to the Prime Minister, one quarter of the entire fleet of nuclear submarines (that is, one out of four boats) could be cancelled which, as a signal, should motivate other countries to also cut their respective inventories.
In detail, Brown indicates that the British SSBN programme, intended to eventually replace the Vanguard-class submarines, may be reduced from four to three vessels, reducing the entire programme costs by over $33 billion (20 billion pounds). The Royal Navy’s 20-year submarine replacement programme forecast schedules the first new vessel to enter service by 2024, with the fourth being commissioned in 2026.
The Vanguard-class nuclear ballistic missile submarines of the Royal Navy are each armed with up to 16 Trident II submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs). The class was introduced in 1994 as part of the UK government's Trident nuclear weapons programme. The four boats in service are the sole carriers of all the United Kingdom's nuclear weapons, since the Army and Air Force eliminated their nuclear weapons in 1998.
Britain now possesses some 160 Trident nuclear warheads on its four Vanguards. It is expected that a reduction of the SSBN fleet will also result in a 20 percent reduction in the number of warheads.
Towards a nuclear-free world…
The timing of the Prime Minister’s announcement is extremely surprising, and it might have implications that escapes a first analysis. The whole question as to whether or not to launch the Vanguard-class replacement programme, and thus whether or not to maintain an independent nuclear deterrent, is expected to be at the very core of the upcoming Strategic Defence Review. Although some preparatory work is already underway, the SDR will be formulated and implemented by the next government, to be formed after general election are held in May 2010. In this framework, for Mr. Brown to effectively come out and state the Great Britain will maintain its SSBN fleet, albeit in a reduced form would seem to amount to an attempt at establishing a diplomatic and foreign policy fait accompli, that any future government would find pretty difficult to renege.
Beyond these issues, the Prime Minister’s announced move for Great Britain to reduce its own nuclear forces, while pushing other nations to follow this example towards a nuclear-free world, is very much on tune with the approach which US President Barack Obama introduced in his speech yesterday, saying that Washington would review its nuclear posture and make deep cuts in its nuclear arsenal.
The Russian President, Dmitry Medvedev, also stated during the 64th session of the UN General Assembly that his country vows to continue transparent and irreversible cuts in nuclear arms, calling it "an important element in the 'new start' of our relations with the U.S."
In a BBC interview, Mr. Brown said that nuclear armed powers, including Britain, “have to make some contribution to the reduction of nuclear weapons” as part of the process of revising and extending the 1970 nuclear non-proliferation treaty (NPT). Non-nuclear country that signed the NPT did so, amongst other considerations, in view of a solemn promise by the nuclear powers to progressively reduce their respective arsenals. This did not take place, however – which has been one of the main reasons for several countries wanting to acquire nuclear capabilities of their own. Against this background, a perceivable move by the nuclear powers towards substantial reductions is seen as a key factor to prevent nuclear proliferation.
…or taming Britain’s soaring budget deficit?
However, the move could also be interpreted as a logical and necessary step, since expensive defence programmes, such as the SSBN replacement, are put on trial. Brown is seriously seeking to reduce government spending to tame Britain’s soaring budget deficit - and the prime Minister understood that axing defence projects would save money.
Indeed, as already achieved in the Eurofighter Typhoon programme, a reduction of the fleet of new submarines will also save costs. But in contrast to the four-nation Eurofighter programme, the Vanguard-class replacement is purely national, involving companies such as BAE Systems, Babcock International Group, and Rolls-Royce Group. A reduction of the fleet could save less than $4 billion, analysts say, since the research and development costs of the programme will be the same as for four vessels. Officials in the Navy, however, said that a fewer number of submarines in service would automatically mean that the vessels in service would need to be on patrol more often, which would increase the operational as well as maintenance costs. Beyond that, these cuts would deeply affect the work force at the Barrow-in-Furness shipyards where the vessels are to be built.
In order to control the surging budget deficit, advisers to the Prime Minister have not only proposed to entirely scrap the submarine programme, but in addition not to purchase the Airbus A400M military transport aircraft and, thereby, saving another $36 billion (22 billion pounds).
