China simply can not be the regional security guarantor, it simply does not have the blue water capability (and don't mention the USN). Fiji would be awfully exposed and on the wrong side of the dominant regional power and the global superpower, and at the mercy of western economic aid and tourism. Without those two Fiji falls apart economically. Plus the last think Frank wants is western intelligence agencies actively funding and training internal opposition movements.
IMO I'd agree that Fiji is an unlikely place for a Chinese naval base (granted strange things can happen when bigger countries buy off Island politicians but I can't see something as huge an event as that happening ... surely even the Commodore doesn't seem anti-west in his ramblings, he stills stands behind the Fijian flag with the Union Jack in his RN-type naval uniform if that really means anything
)?!
Mind you, a Chinese naval base in Fiji could have perverse consequences for NZ's political future for example the Greens (who are pro Tibet thus anti C...) would probably rush up to join the Army or Territorials to ward off their "enemy" and the anti nuclear movement would have to debate whether they protest a new major nuclear power being in "our" back yard or whether to invite US nuclear warships into "our" harbours again to preserve "their way of life" (eg better to be drinking latte's and going to film festivals or maybe plowing one's organic vegetable gardens than say, having to do real hard labour that's an absolute killer for disobeying the new authorities) Seeing the new kid major nuclear power doesn't care much for the environment/pollution/efficient technologies I'd say the Greens and the Anti-Nuc's would have to go for the latter and welcome the US back
BTW my recent rant on Fiji/(China) may have come across as pro-the Commodore, to be clear I'm not supporting his coup as such, simply saying that improved dialogue is needed as the guy ain't going away (even pre-coup the Govt of the day couldn't get rid of him!) plus NZ's part in establishing the contentious pro-indigenous Constitution in the late 80's also simply means NZ needs to face up and help sort out something more relevent to the 21st Century (seeing that ethnic Fijians are now the majority again) as otherwise elections will simply be years away so why posture (it's so H1) or be actively destroying the Fijian economy with sanctions?
Isn't that Chinese purpose on Pacific nations more on reducing Taiwan influences (or more preciese Taiwan's money influences). Seems it's more on reducing any potential supporter for Taiwan in International Diplomatic game.
This is the real worry and the unintended consequences in years to come.
China has been winning this battle in recent years over Taiwan.
Both countries though have plowed hundreds of millions in loans and aid into the region.
Some Pacific countries are finding it hard to pay back these loans.
I wonder what the small print said in the loan contracts when loans start defaulting?
Who will be bank rolling these island counties in future years (to help pay off the debt)? Will they be in China's pocket? Will more Chinese technical personnel establish spy bases in the Pacific? Throw in more crime and money laundering sydicates to keep the locals pre-occupied with surviving in amongst criminal elements and paramilitary police units on the other hand roughing up the locals etc. Maybe the PLA(N) will get that shiny Naval base in Fiji after-all!
Seriously the Waihopi spy base in NZ had its damaged aerial cover replaced just recently, and the anti-bases movement spouted their usual anti-stuff. If I were them I'd be a little bit more supportive of NZ's role in the western intelligence alliance, the world down here is changing in some long drawn out slow motion change to the "natural" order of things, which will evolve over time, but evolve it is. As above their way of life will not be as easy as it has been and maybe they should be thinking of the pros and cons rather just the cons of their world view.
