Note that I cited auckland airport as the target, which can be reached from chinese coast using a very tiny diversion to avoid over flying Australia.Without flying over, or at least, flying within range of Australia?
Note that I cited auckland airport as the target, which can be reached from chinese coast using a very tiny diversion to avoid over flying Australia.Without flying over, or at least, flying within range of Australia?
Two points:As for cactus I said it before, the distance from staging point was much greater(Agra?) so distance between the countries you cited is not relevant here but distance between the staging point and destination and the fact that resources used to launch it can be used to reach NZ from chinese coast.
with the invasion force keeping good distance from shore lines avoiding detection is not a remote possibility. I am talking about China as the theoretical invading force here, I use cactus as a example because both countries(India and China) have similar capabilities in that area.
Also the point to be noted about cactus here is that when the transports launched the availability of landing strip was not known and it was only convenient for them that a landing strip was available when they reached maldives, hence the use of fully equipped paras at staging point.
Cactus is also relevant because the strategy of the invading party for NZ can be compared to both the tamil rebels(who came by sea) and the indian forces coming by air. Maldives was quiet defenceless as a country which would be similar to a NZ situation without a serious army or navy.
I agree with all your points. Note that throughout this excercise I have strained to emphasize how it would be unsustainable after initial success, and hence impractical.Two points:
I can't imagine an airborne assault being maintained logistically for more than 3 days without a staging post within 4 hours flight time of New Zealand. The only possible would be Fiji. Secure that and maybe.
Second while NZ's armed forces are unlikely to be much match for an brigade sized airborne assault maintaining peaceful occupation is another matter. NZ has a rifle ownership per head matching some southern states of the US and culture of resisting authority. The violent civil disorder would be hellish to quell- think Iraq but with better scenery. I imagine it would require at least 2-3 divisions, a serious helocopter pool and a large logistics train through the middle of the western Pacific. Helluva commitment to go whale-watching.
The distance from Agra to the Maldives is still far less than the distance from any part of India to Auckland. From India to the Maldives, no overflight of any other country is necessary. From either India or China to New Zealand requires overflights of more than one country, & extended overflight of at least one. Civil ATC radars would pick up the aircraft unless they flew a deliberately evasive route (adding distance).As for cactus I said it before, the distance from staging point was much greater(Agra?) so distance between the countries you cited is not relevant here but distance between the staging point and destination and the fact that resources used to launch it can be used to reach NZ from chinese coast....
The Maldives & NZ are not comparable in their ability to defend themselves. NZ has ten times the population, & a great deal more than ten times the wealth, land area, technology & weaponry. Its armed forces are small, but far larger & better armed than those of the Maldives, & extremely efficient.Cactus is also relevant because the strategy of the invading party for NZ can be compared to both the tamil rebels(who came by sea) and the indian forces coming by air. Maldives was quiet defenceless as a country which would be similar to a NZ situation without a serious army or navy.
Are you sure about this number?? I had been told something around 5500km. Route I suggested was from Chinese eastern seaboard skirting along east coast of austrailia to reach Auckland airport. Looking at the map you can see how that route avoids overflying over any ATC with very little deviation. II will see if I can put a map here. Not sure how to use image upload here yet. However if you are positive about your number then I might be mistaken since I don't have reliable source for that distance and my calculation was based on the maximum range of assets used in cactus. I am not sure about the extended range with refuller though, I guess some one with knowledge in that area can comment.BTW, it's over 9000km from the nearest point of China to Auckland.
Obtained from an online distance calculator. It's consistent with other distances, & the line on the map looks the right length.Are you sure about this number?? I had been told something around 5500km. ....
Australia does have the capability. East Timor/Interfet Australia pulled it "out of its arse" and leased a high speed cat (HMAS Jervis Bay) in addition to HMAS Kanimbla,HMAS Manoora and smaller amphibious ships like HMAS Tobruk. These high speed cats operate between Australia and Tasmania and are made in Tasmania. Additional ones could be obtained/made in time of war. There is also another producer in Perth. We have two 30,000t LHD's on order, 1 already undergoing construction. In a war time situation, Australia would aquire as many vessels as needed and could aquire ships like Spirt of tasmania (200m Ropax) that owned and operated by Australian governments (tasmania) and companies. Each ship could land 1500 personel and 1000 vechicals with a max speed of 30 kt.hoffy said:What about australia ? Yes it does have some advance planes and ships. But if you look carefully it is sadly lacking in range. 2 x Amphibious ship ? No tanker fleet for its air force ? F-111 is the only thing with any range in its inventory at the moment.
That problem you think too much in military sense and logic. That sadly make you close to door to another other people view and just because you cannot think outside the box or understand it - you call them "childish".Your earlier post is counter intuitive and somewhat lacking in an understanding of NZ's context.
Please consider reading the thread, in particular, AD's and Todjaeger's posts - as they pertain to the points you raise.
Edit: The issue is not on any particular claim of expertise or racism - it's your inability to read and understand prior posts. And I was not even attacking your post - just pointing out that you have not read posts by others that contradict your position - before anyone else jumps on your post.
Please provide details of your service history, such as country of service and vocation. Like me, you can start your process of getting a blue handle by contacting the mods with the necessary supporting documentation of your service record - like your certificate of service.
Edit: If you indeed had relevant experience and want to talk about military tactics - you should have attended an orders group before and should not react in such a childish manner. Start with your concept of ops (at start state) and the logistics necessary. Thereafter, show me how you would generate:
(i) the collection plan,for your NZ invasion scenario. Imagine you are preparing an AOP for an invasion of the scale you suggest (please also state your desired end state).
(ii) the ECAs (the NZ troops will react),
(iii) the OPS Plan (to deploy your 12,000 troops),
(iv) the fire support plan, and
(v) the CSS plan,
Or were you in a service vocation during your active days? And don't know what is an AOP.
And how is that relevant to NZ's defence from invasion? Don't try to change the topic to cover your inability to express your point of view persuasively, logically or coherently - somewhat like the standard of Lionoisy's posts in another forum. Rant all you want - but you'll get the respect that you deserve.
I'll let the others respond to you - I don't intend to engage in a totally counter productive exercise. I also see you are trying to fit into the definition of a category (2) poster.
I think you need a cool flannel for your forehead and a nice lie down.That problem you think too much in military sense and logic. That sadly make you close to door to another other people view and just because you cannot think outside the box or understand it - you call them "childish".
What Ops plans did the Somalia side give in Battle of Mogadishu on which Black Hawk Down is based. I would like to find out did it have ](i) the collection plan,
(ii) the ECAs (the US troops will react),
(iii) the OPS Plan (to deploy your 30,000 mobs),
(iv) the fire support plan, and
(v) the CSS plan
I doubt there was much of plans - it work didn't it !
All it take is 1 crazy cleric that have enough followers and resources and nut enough to do it. Think about it, if that mad person have so much followers, he would have a dozen or hundreds of better military people advicing him. Maybe you just cannot swallow that fact that there are better military experience people outside of this forum and just think that the expert is all here !!! If a church in singapore can raise 19million within 24 hours. A religious cleric should have no problem to have all the help, manpower and resources to execute his plans. Renting a few huge ships is not an issue. If 9-11 - the planes did not get intercepted - you think the chance of the ships get intercepted ? To take over army bases is not so difficult especially with officers that think like you - NZ is too impossbile and far away ....and the navy would spot them !!!
A lot of folks here - say impossible the logisitic cannot sustain - what logistic !!!! This is not a convention army, they do not need to wear uniform, they just have to bring ammo and rifle. They can resupply from capture army camps. Food and other - the cities are full of it, they most they eat sheep everyday.
What about support and response ? Yes the whole world armies and airforce and navy is coming after them !!! - these are religion fantics. You think they care if there is no fire support, or ops plans. To them the only ops plans is simple
1) get on ship to go party
2) takeover some army camp that may stop the party
3) Party in the city
4) wait for international army - the party will end with the greatest bang
5) go to heaven and 72 virgin to party forever !!!
You think they will ask if got ops order, fire support, supply !!!! These are the best soldiers !!! You shout charge they blind charge !!! Not like thinking modern soldier - why charge ? ops order never say got charge !!!
These sort of responses are considered childish, because they are poorly thought out, with real world difficulties to overcome that are conveniently ignored because even the "creators" realise that attempting to seriously address the real world issues an invasion force needs to, compromises the validity of the idea in the first place, in this context particularly.That problem you think too much in military sense and logic. That sadly make you close to door to another other people view and just because you cannot think outside the box or understand it - you call them "childish".
1. Local intelligence agencies in places where you can "rent big ships" keep an eye on that sort of thing.All it take is 1 crazy cleric that have enough followers and resources and nut enough to do it. Think about it, if that mad person have so much followers, he would have a dozen or hundreds of better military people advicing him. Maybe you just cannot swallow that fact that there are better military experience people outside of this forum and just think that the expert is all here !!! If a church in singapore can raise 19million within 24 hours. A religious cleric should have no problem to have all the help, manpower and resources to execute his plans. Renting a few huge ships is not an issue. If 9-11 - the planes did not get intercepted - you think the chance of the ships get intercepted ? To take over army bases is not so difficult especially with officers that think like you - NZ is too impossbile and far away ....and the navy would spot them !!!
How about before they even get there?A lot of folks here - say impossible the logisitic cannot sustain - what logistic !!!! This is not a convention army, they do not need to wear uniform, they just have to bring ammo and rifle. They can resupply from capture army camps. Food and other - the cities are full of it, they most they eat sheep everyday.
I suggest you read up on how those PLOTE rebels invaded maldives. The strategy is not impossible and it has been shown. Besides sanitation is not a issue for these guys. they could as well bend over on the side of the ship and do it. Trust me I am not kidding with that!!That's one issue dealt with.
Another one is disembarkation. Assuming that they get there fit to fight, how does he propose to get 12000 jihadists off his ship? .
JORN would be tracking them for most of their trip, Australia can intercept them either by ferrying aircraft to new zealand for refueling or using the KC-30's to extend the range of the F/A-18's flying our of Williamstown or another base.Note that I cited auckland airport as the target, which can be reached from chinese coast using a very tiny diversion to avoid over flying Australia.
The Maldives again. Oh dear. Why can you not see that that is irrelevant? Scale matters. Distance matters. Time matters. You ignore all of them.I suggest you read up on how those PLOTE rebels invaded maldives. The strategy is not impossible and it has been shown. Besides sanitation is not a issue for these guys. they could as well bend over on the side of the ship and do it. Trust me I am not kidding with that!!
IMO, AD's reply to your post conclusively demonstrates that you are not merely childish but also incoherent and illogical. You should start by reading the prior post by Todjaeger (#35) part of which I have quoted below.That problem you think too much in military sense and logic. That sadly make you close to door to another other people view and just because you cannot think outside the box or understand it - you call them "childish".
I've suggested that you read prior posts in this thread and even that you can't do. As I have said before, Todjaeger's and AD's prior posts demonstrate that your ideas lack substance.Todjaeger said:...OTOH, if the concern is really about the effect upon NZ an outside attacking force that seeks to gain control of NZ, the conversation becomes a bit different.
For starters, I agree with most military/defence analysts who feel that the event is remote enough to not be a significant planning factor. As mentioned before, there are only a small handful of countries which have the necessary equipment and/or facilities in order to do so. These (IMO) are the US, UK, Australia, and France. Other countries are building (or re-building in the case of Russia) the capability to do so, but do not have it at present, and likely will not have the minimum needed capability for a decade or more. This is assuming that no governments allied with or friendly to NZ become involved.
For those who wish to suggest an 'asymmetric' invasion, IMO there is no such thing... The point behind an invasion is to take, seize or ultimately gain control of a space or area. Thus, by its very nature it is conventional, because the aggressor nation needs to be able to establish control of an area. There may well be times and phases where 'asymmetric' or unconventional tactics are used, but the operation as a whole will be conventional. This then reinforces the point I (and others) were making, in that there is a limited number of candidates who could possibly carry out an even partially successful invasion of NZ.
The Battle of Mogadishu example you cite is not relevant and does not support your invasion of NZ scenario. BTW, your above responses indicate that you not only lack operational unit experience, you also don't know what the hell you are talking about in relation to military strategy or tactics.What Ops plans did the Somalia side give in Battle of Mogadishu on which Black Hawk Down is based. I would like to find out did it have ](i) the collection plan,
(ii) the ECAs (the US troops will react),
(iii) the OPS Plan (to deploy your 30,000 mobs),
(iv) the fire support plan, and
(v) the CSS plan
I doubt there was much of plans - it work didn't it !
I know that there are people in this forum with good military experience - BUT you just happen NOT to be one of them.All it take is 1 crazy cleric that have enough followers and resources and nut enough to do it. Think about it, if that mad person have so much followers, he would have a dozen or hundreds of better military people advising him. Maybe you just cannot swallow that fact that there are better military experience people outside of this forum and just think that the expert is all here !!! If a church in singapore can raise 19million within 24 hours. A religious cleric should have no problem to have all the help, manpower and resources to execute his plans. Renting a few huge ships is not an issue. If 9-11 - the planes did not get intercepted - you think the chance of the ships get intercepted ? To take over army bases is not so difficult especially with officers that think like you - NZ is too impossible and far away ....and the navy would spot them !!!
Please read AD's latest post - I'm not even trying to make you look incoherent, childish and illogical.A lot of folks here - say impossible the logisitic cannot sustain - what logistic !!!! This is not a convention army, they do not need to wear uniform, they just have to bring ammo and rifle. They can resupply from capture army camps. Food and other - the cities are full of it, they most they eat sheep everyday.
Please keep digging the hole you are in... you can only provide further evidence on the level of your intellect.What about support and response ? Yes the whole world armies and airforce and navy is coming after them !!! - these are religion fantics. You think they care if there is no fire support, or ops plans. To them the only ops plans is simple
1) get on ship to go party
2) takeover some army camp that may stop the party
3) Party in the city
4) wait for international army - the party will end with the greatest bang
5) go to heaven and 72 virgin to party forever !!!
You think they will ask if got ops order, fire support, supply !!!! These are the best soldiers !!! You shout charge they blind charge !!! Not like thinking modern soldier - why charge ? ops order never say got charge !!!
Minor correction: you can cope without refrigeration if you prepare well, taking dried, tinned, pickled, etc. food, & vitamin C sources that'll keep.... for weeks, you need a proper water supply, food stores, refrigeration (or the lack of fresh food is going to start having health effects), etc.....
Aust digger - The reason it can be done in real world is just that every red flag rise would have been ignored !!!These sort of responses are considered childish, because they are poorly thought out, with real world difficulties to overcome that are conveniently ignored because even the "creators" realise that attempting to seriously address the real world issues an invasion force needs to, compromises the validity of the idea in the first place, in this context particularly.
1. Local intelligence agencies in places where you can "rent big ships" keep an eye on that sort of thing.
2. Attempting to embark 12,000 armed jihadists on multiple transport ship WILL be noticed. That ship will NOT be allowed to enter a friendly port and would most likely be sunk by US PacRim Naval/Air assets.
How about before they even get there?
12,000 people equals a minimum of about 36,000 litres of CLEAN drinking water required per day or 252,000 litres of clean drinking water per week. Where is this going to come from on a cargo ship?
Any Country that has 12,000 armed jihadists ready to embark on a suicide mission is going to be at least 3-4 weeks sailing time from NZ and I would suggest a WHOLE lot more.
Assuming it is only 3 weeks, you force now requires the ability to supply itself with 756,000 litres of clean drinking water during it's transit.
Let us assume that your "Mad Mullah" and his 12,000 insane followers actually intend to eat food during this 3 week minimum transit period. Even assuming your jihadists only consume 500 grams of food per person, per day (a VERY small quantity for someone expecting to wage Holy war on infidels) that requires you to provide 6 tons (6000 kilos) of food per day, 42 tons of food (42,000 kilos) per week and 126 tons (126,000 kilos) of food for the 3 week transit period.
How are a few rented cargo ships meant to provide sanitary facilities for 12,000 people? No matter how devout and willing to die for their faith. They are still human beings.
Your cargo ships will have to deal with thousands of kilos of excrement per day, in a sanitary manner or all 12,000 jihadists will be suffering from a variety of diseases, including Hepatitis A, Dysentry, Salmonella infections and a variety of other nasty diseases, that will leave one unable to fight, no matter how devout, before they reach their destination.
No logistics? You haven't the FAINTEST idea of what you are talking about, trying to move large numbers of people, I'm afraid, let alone fighting a war.