New Zealand invasion

[Ozzy Blizzard]

Aust digger - The reason it can be done in real world is just that every red flag rise would have been ignored !!!

1) Local intelligent agencies - would be staff by people like you - write it of as totally no !!! - thus totally ignore.

2) Embarking ? there is so many places in indonesia or other countries - there is away some disuse port or money which can pay to let others look else where. US PacRim Naval/Air assets ? would not even be looking out for it - because local intelligent aganecies people like you told them - it is impossible .

3) To dismiss my point - you all have unfairly to view that 12,000 idiots on a small cargo ship !!! I say before 2 ship - which i am looking at cruise ships. Yes some old cruise ships that is destinated to be scrapped or false acquired. If you check up each decent size cruise ship, they should able to handle 6000 - 8000 - you see anyone short of water or food or shit over the side ? I am sure 12,000 idiots, would not be dying of lack of water or food.

Several hundred cruise ships ply routes worldwide, especially on a cruise ship serving several thousand meals at each seating. For example, passengers and crew on the Royal Caribbean International ship Mariner of the Seas consume 20,000 pounds (9,000 kg) of beef, 28,000 eggs, 8,000 gallons (30,000 L) of ice cream, and 18,000 slices of pizza in a week.

You close your mind to imagine a small cargo ship - while mine is of 2 old cruise liners - that is what FAINTEST idea is all about !!!!

You cant congregate 12,000 jihadists without the global intelligence community knowing about it. Organizing such a thing would create huge amounts of traffic. So EVERYONE will know about it. Once anyone knows about it the Australians and US will be watching very closely thinking its a possible terrorist attack.

He meant disembarking... how are you going to deploy your forces once your cruise ships get there. Unless you fool the port authorities you wont be able to dock. Are jihadists usually good swimmers?

The logistical problems have been comprehensively addressed.

Mate I'd let it go if i was you. Your gonna get banned with an attitude like that, unless of course you are a troll and this is why you came here in the first place. If so then by all means, please continue.

 

[storywolf]

You cant congregate 12,000 jihadists without the global intelligence community knowing about it. Organizing such a thing would create huge amounts of traffic. So EVERYONE will know about it. Once anyone knows about it the Australians and US will be watching very closely thinking its a possible terrorist attack.

He meant disembarking... how are you going to deploy your forces once your cruise ships get there. Unless you fool the port authorities you wont be able to dock. Are jihadists usually good swimmers?

The logistical problems have been comprehensively addressed.

Mate I'd let it go if i was you. Your gonna get banned with an attitude like that, unless of course you are a troll and this is why you came here in the first place. If so then by all means, please continue.

If the 12,000 jihadists coming together of course the intelligent would have raise the flag, but the question is would the intelligent community believe in what they are planning to do .... the whole lot of you give it 100% cannot be done and ask me to let it go - so whatever warning would have got thrown into a wastepaper bin somewhere. Remember intelligent is only good if it get act on.

Disembarking ? Of course fooling the port authorities is the best simple way. Their own eyes - they see a real cruise ship. With some good excuse of, needing urgent emergency ... got diverted to NZ .

What attiude ? I just clarifying why things can be done - so far i think have proven with a open mind - logistically and disembarking can be done.

Banned just because i put up another view different from you all ?

 

[storywolf]

You've got the wrong idea. Let me explain, the idea behind participating in a forum like this is to provide supporting evidence on why your idea could or would work. Citing irrelevant rubbish does not help your arguments. The amazing thing is that you lack self awareness - that your arguments lack merit.

IMO, AD's reply to your post conclusively demonstrates that you are not merely childish but also incoherent and illogical. You should start by reading the prior post by Todjaeger (#35) part of which I have quoted below.

I've suggested that you read prior posts in this thread and even that you can't do. As I have said before, Todjaeger's and AD's prior posts demonstrate that your ideas lack substance.

The Battle of Mogadishu example you cite is not relevant and does not support your invasion of NZ scenario. BTW, your above responses indicate that you not only lack operational unit experience, you also don't know what the hell you are talking about in relation to military strategy or tactics.

Edit: Let me repeat my earlier questions:

Q1: Do you know what is an AOP? [NB: Please answer]

Q2: Have you ever attended an orders group? [NB: Please answer]

If you don't know the answers, please admit it (and I'll explain) - rather than try to bluff your way through (which will ONLY make you look more stupid). Assuming that you had prior military training (as you claimed), I gave you a basic planning framework to serve as a thinking-aid and to assist you in framing a reasoned response. However, you demonstrate a total inability to understand or make a coherent argument. This is despite my best attempt NOT to make you look stupid. Why are you trying so hard to provide further prove that you are incapable of learning or applying new information?

I know that there are people in this forum with good military experience - BUT you just happen NOT to be one of them.

I know you are accustomed to posting in agony aunt type of forums - please go back to those forums that you frequent and cry your heart out - I have little or no patience with your ilk - too proud to admit you don't know and too stupid to ask for the necessary guidance.

Please read AD's latest post - I'm not even trying to make you look incoherent, childish and illogical.

Please keep digging the hole you are in... you can only provide further evidence on the level of your intellect.

I don't think that military experience is define - as ability to dumping out military terms blindly and insult other people ideas.

Why i am say that you are dumping military terms blindly.
1) AOP - I would assume you mean Air operations plan - if you have no air assets, no air operation ..... what in the world you want to talk about AOP !!! .

2) Have you ever attended an orders group ? that the most dumb question, even ordinary soldiers - attend orders groups for exercise for deployment and execution. How in the world with your experience you forget that.

 

[Ozzy Blizzard]

If the 12,000 jihadists coming together of course the intelligent would have raise the flag, but the question is would the intelligent community believe in what they are planning to do .... the whole lot of you give it 100% cannot be done and ask me to let it go - so whatever warning would have got thrown into a wastepaper bin somewhere. Remember intelligent is only good if it get act on.

The point is ships travel rather slowly, and the operation would be under constant surveillance throughout its execution. So everyone would know they were heading for NZ weeks before they arrived off Auckland, which would give the Kiwi's (and AUS & US) ample time to prepare.

Anyway you don't think the USN would take an opportunity to sink a old cruise ship or two filled with 12,000 jihadi's? I dare say it would be intercepted as soon as it hit international waters.

Disembarking ? Of course fooling the port authorities is the best simple way. Their own eyes - they see a real cruise ship. With some good excuse of, needing urgent emergency ... got diverted to NZ .

1) See above, the port authorities would be warned, and the entire NZA & allied units would be deployed around the port facilities, assuming of course the ships hadn't been sunk yet. In short in order for that to work your OPSEC would have to remain intact thought out all phases of the operation, as stated above that's going to be very difficult.

2) Every ship has to be registered, there actually aren't that many around. Two unidentified ships rock up that aren't supposed to be there are not going to be allowed to dock, under any circumstances.

3) Thus, you would have to have a cover story, with intact OPSEC, which is virtually impossible since you have just rounded up 12,000 jihadi's on a few soon to be decommissioned cruise ships that decided to sail to NZ all of a sudden.

What attiude ? I just clarifying why things can be done - so far i think have proven with a open mind - logistically and disembarking can be done.

It could Possibly be attempted. Would it succeed? Not a chance in hell.

You have been rebutted over and over again, by people who actually do this sort of thing for a living. All of the points you have made have been addressed by others previously, who have provided clear and logical reasons as to why it wont work. You just keep throwing idea's around that defy military logic, and persisting they will work with very little substance to your argument saying it will.

Banned just because i put up another view different from you all ?

No mate, different idea's are always welcome. But in your case you have put your idea's forward, even though similar ideas had been thoroughly rebutted in prior posts. And then when your idea's have been discredited by, well, everyone, you not only persist but insult people intelligence by claiming its their "military dogma" that prevents them from seeing that your ideas are good. of course nothing to do with the fact that they are in fact not practical. Well mate, that sort of behavior seems to be intentionally confrontational and disruptive, without adding anything new or constructive, the typical MO of the troll. Well mate are you a troll?

Because you wont get banned for posting your idea's, but guess what you will be send to the hall of shame for being a troll with nothing constructive to contribute. To be honest its not just your idea's mate, its your conduct.

 

[OPSSG]

Please try to engage in an exchange of ideas - via learning from your mistakes - rather than insisting that you are always correct.

I don't think that military experience is define - as ability to dumping out military terms blindly and insult other people ideas.

The person who is blind to your own faults is you. I'm not trying to debate with you or make you look incoherent. Yet you keep metaphorically throwing punches in your posts. AND yet, for some strange reason - these punches are landing on your own face.

Why i am say that you are dumping military terms blindly.
1) AOP - I would assume you mean Air operations plan - if you have no air assets, no air operation ..... what in the world you want to talk about AOP !!! .

Wrong! We seem to be on the different channels, you and I.

AOP = Approval of plan

2) Have you ever attended an orders group ? that the most dumb question, even ordinary soldiers - attend orders groups for exercise for deployment and execution.

IMHO, your above response makes you seem like a troll - take it easy - learn to express yourself in a less confrontational manner. Please try to interact and learn from the other members that have a different point of view.

BTW, you've just proven that you have never attended an orders group - simply because you don't know who they comprise of. I don't think explaining 'what an orders group is', would help you better organise your thoughts. As such, I shall not make the effort, unless you ask me nicely and also make an effort to think through your future posts.

How in the world with your experience you forget that.

Please read this link which sets out a fairly standard sample Platoon OPS Order format. Hopefully, this simpler format will help you better understand military planning before you respond (as I recognize the earlier Bde/Bn Ops order format provided may be too complex for you to understand).

 

[Aussie Digger]

Aust digger - The reason it can be done in real world is just that every red flag rise would have been ignored !!!

Now you are demonstrating your lack of insight in "flags" no-one can fail to see.

Intell agencies produce daily int-sums that would boggle your mind if you could actually read them (which you obviously cannot).

Vocal clerics activities ARE scrutinised, as is traffic in and out of harbours around the world. Intelligence agencies (int-sums) theorise, wargame and analyse activities such as you are proposing on a daily basis. Ships at sea can and ARE monitored, can be tracked easily if even the slightest indication of a threat warrants it and can most certainly be easily intercepted if required.

1) Local intelligent agencies - would be staff by people like you - write it of as totally no !!! - thus totally ignore.

No-one in intelligence fields writes "anything off". Political decisions are made on intelligence summaries and some threats are considered more likely than others.

Random mass shootings are currently the highest terrorist threat considered likely by NZ and Australian intelligence agencies, this has been admitted publicly.

Your idea, whilst not wholly implausible, as an idea, is entirely implausible in it's scale, the ease with which you think it will achieve it's goal (presumably being to overthrow an established democracy, establish a caliphate, avoid a civil war with the normal citizens of said country, whilst simultaneously avoiding international detection and intervention) and the effect it will achieve, in the face of military and law enforcement capability brought to bear against it.

2) Embarking ? there is so many places in indonesia or other countries - there is away some disuse port or money which can pay to let others look else where. US PacRim Naval/Air assets ? would not even be looking out for it - because local intelligent agencies people like you told them - it is impossible .

1. Part of my profession is within an intelligence unit. I am well versed in threat assessments, I read daily int-sums prepared by Australian Intelligence agencies.

Name one single country on Earth, where the local authorities will turn a completely blind eye to 12,000 armed jihadists embarking on "retired cruise ships" where Western intelligence agencies will fail to achieve "penetration" of the particular country and fail to report on the activities of 12,000 armed jihadists quite obviously setting off for maritime launched jihad.

If you can.

If one Western Intelligence agency picks up on the scheme, it is doomed to failure.

That such an incident has never been attempted and the widely advertised FACT that terrorist agencies act covertly shows that even THEY are aware that attempts at overt action on a largish scale are doomed to failure.

By all means though. Try and convince some mad mullahs of the merits of this idea.

We can all do with seeing some more footage like this:

http://www.defence.gov.au/media/download/2006/mar/20060323c/Pong_Su_sinking.mpg

 

[gf0012-aust]

If one Western Intelligence agency picks up on the scheme, it is doomed to failure.

I'd add that we also get significant intel from within the Middle East from a number of countries that are still very but discretely friendly to us.

I think most people generally would be gonsmacked by the sheer volume of material that comes in, and how it's viewed, parcelled and distributed.

There's also not the small issue, that (certainly with ABCA) we all run test scenarios on improbables or likelys. Those scenarios get unpacked and presented to the Nat Security committee whenever something goes to custard. Those vignettes are done to test and establish an ability to respond to a variety of events - and some would seem highly unlikely but are constructed anyway.

eg the coup in Fiji scenario may as well become a library item...

Some of the assumptions made in this thread about how intel harvesting, collection, distribution works is way off base.

My own view is that if people think that they've got it all worked out, then I'm happy for them and I'll just go back to shaking my head and lurking. Some of the stuff said preciously may well be a vehicle of enthusiastic opinion, but against how this is done in real life - well its worth zip.

In fact this LO invasion scenario on a reflagged merchant vessel has been done some many times on various forums I'm starting to wonder whether it's been Lazarused again. This nonsense is the kind of thing that El Cid /Sid tried to promote on SP and was quite rapidly shut down when some of the intel blokes could no longer keep their counsel on his pet beliefs.

 

[swerve]

I...
Disembarking ? Of course fooling the port authorities is the best simple way. Their own eyes - they see a real cruise ship. With some good excuse of, needing urgent emergency ... got diverted to NZ . ..

What real cruise ship? They know the schedule of every cruise ship passing through their waters. You're not on it. Diverted? Where from? You can't answer, because as soon as you lie, they'll know.

You said you'd buy an old ship sold for scrap. They'll probably be able to find that out pretty quickly.

Assuming that despite everything, you've actually managed to sneak all your jihadists aboard without your plan being discovered, you'll initially (until someone gets a look at who's aboard & works it out) be assumed to be trying to get a large number of illegal immigrants ashore. Therefore, unless you're actually sinking, they'll respond to your claims of being in distress by giving you whatever assistance (food, water, mechanical assistance) & trying to divert you to somewhere secure, from where you can't get ashore. Small islands are popular. That would be fun, wouldn't it? 12000 jihadists on a small island. Easy targets, eh?

They most definitely will not allow you anywhere near a port unless you are actually sinking. If they have to let you into port, it'll be the most secure one they can get you to, & as far away from a city or major town as possible. They may even seek to put you into shallow water where you can sink safely on to the bottom, so that they can control access to & from the ship.

You've really not thought this through.

 

[Firn]

Well NZ isn't exactely Liechtenstein :idea:

I think that the last posters did inject some helpful dose of reality in this thread.

 

[AnthonyB]

Not wanting to overly continue such an unlikely scenario however one small issue that has been overlooked in these posts is that the closest Australian airport to New Zealand is only 800kms not the 2000kms odd often quoted in a number of posts. Kingston to Kaitaia is 800km and Kingtson to Aukland is 1000 kms. Given Norfolk Island is roughly north of New Zealand, in the likely path of any attack, any invading force would be insane to allow Australia a base so close to NZ.

 

[Hoffy]

China's new interest in Fiji..

Not wanting to overly continue such an unlikely scenario however one small issue that has been overlooked in these posts is that the closest Australian airport to New Zealand is only 800kms not the 2000kms odd often quoted in a number of posts. Kingston to Kaitaia is 800km and Kingtson to Aukland is 1000 kms. Given Norfolk Island is roughly north of New Zealand, in the likely path of any attack, any invading force would be insane to allow Australia a base so close to NZ.

Just an afterthought , but political & military landscapes can change quite rapidly(as history shows us).
Things that were previously considered complete fantasy can become reality very quickly.;
LARGE CHINESE DELEGATION TO VISIT FIJI, IMPROVE RELATIONS - June 1, 2009
Kinda makes you wonder what is really going on here...

 

[Marc 1]

Just an afterthought , but political & military landscapes can change quite rapidly(as history shows us).
Things that were previously considered complete fantasy can become reality very quickly.;
LARGE CHINESE DELEGATION TO VISIT FIJI, IMPROVE RELATIONS - June 1, 2009
Kinda makes you wonder what is really going on here...

Very good point. The Chinese have been buying their way into many nations recently...

 

[StevoJH]

Very good point. The Chinese have been buying their way into many nations recently...

And then arresting people to put on the pressure when they don't get their own way.

 

[recce.k1]

Kinda makes you wonder what is really going on here...

Don't worry, these things happen all the time, after all it's not illegal for an independant country (Fiji) to be talking to the likes of China (and seeing the Australian & NZ Govt's policy to ostracize Fiji gives others room to maneouver .... I'm sure the two Govt's know what they are doing)

Anyway I'd be a little bit more concerned (with events closer to home) to hear today that civilian miners (including an Australian) were shot in Papua - Radio NZ news reports at 12pm unable to confirm whether Seperatists or Indonesian "rogue" elements were involved ... (although their website link downplays that assertion somewhat) (and assuming it wasn't simply a criminal case). This I assume would be a much bigger headache for the Australian (& NZ) Govt's, hoping the issue will go away rather than have to deal with a "diplomatic" issue (possible confrontation if the area destabalises and/or public pressure mounts due to occassional reports of rogue elements killing off other civilians & seperatists) etc?

 

[steve33]

Very good point. The Chinese have been buying their way into many nations recently...

Wonder how long it will be before we see a chinese naval base in Fiji.

 

[Marc 1]

Wonder how long it will be before we see a chinese naval base in Fiji.

I think if that happened the kiwi's might suddenly consider the F16's weren't a luxury, the two options they didn't take on the Anzac's were suddenly required... hehe, might even get 'little bro' moving!


But seriously, I don't think we'll see that for some years yet if ever (fingers crossed). I saw a doco on tele recently about how China was 'assisting' quite a few african nations with railways, ports and other infrastructure. It was not just largesse on behalf of the Chinese, the underlying reason was no doubt that it secured an alternate source of minerals to its traditional suppliers. And probably opened the door to purchases of Chinese military equipment. Probably just good policy to make yourself less dependent upon a single source of resources...

 

[steve33]

I think if that happened the kiwi's might suddenly consider the F16's weren't a luxury, the two options they didn't take on the Anzac's were suddenly required... hehe, might even get 'little bro' moving!


But seriously, I don't think we'll see that for some years yet if ever (fingers crossed). I saw a doco on tele recently about how China was 'assisting' quite a few african nations with railways, ports and other infrastructure. It was not just largesse on behalf of the Chinese, the underlying reason was no doubt that it secured an alternate source of minerals to its traditional suppliers. And probably opened the door to purchases of Chinese military equipment. Probably just good policy to make yourself less dependent upon a single source of resources...

I certainly hope not we don,t need a Chinese pearl harbour.

What do you think is the Chinese interest in Fiji? i can,t think of what resources Fiji would have that China wants.

 

[Marc 1]

I certainly hope not we don,t need a Chinese pearl harbour.

What do you think is the Chinese interest in Fiji? i can,t think of what resources Fiji would have that China wants.

Not so much resources - regional influence. Possible base for naval/air exercises, possible permanent base? (unlikely but not out of the question)

 

[recce.k1]

Steve: I wouldn't expect to see a Chinese naval base in Fiji ever. The Commodore there ain't no Chavez, he's not interested in chest thumping or moving away from the West so to speak.

Chinese or Taiwanese money gives these Island nations extra pocket money (on top of their local economy and aid monies) but can be used as a diplomatic weapon (eg to buy Island nation votes at say the UN to support China or Taiwan or to not go against them etc).

Trouble is the Fiji economy is stuffed (and I'm not proud to say that NZ & Australian Govt policy is making things worse and adding to the poverty rates), the Fiji Govt missed out on some multi-million dollar EU funding recently to assist with their sugar industry, one of their main breadwinners, and the last I heard is that Fiji are now talking to other countries that don't have so many strings attached to try and get some funding.

Mind you, on the other hand, all it would take would be a group of corrupt businessmen and/or disenfranchised indigenous elites along with some army officers to bump off the Commodore and then it could be game on and then who knows.

I'm of the view the new NZ Govt shouldn't continue to peddle the same sanctimonious hypocrisy of the last NZ Govt (eg after all Thailand had a coup and we still deal with them. Nevermind we deal with other non-democractic countries for trade all the time etc) and make more effort to resolve things behind the scenes before Fiji truely does become a basket case and NZ (and Australia) needs to pour in millions of dollars to rescue their economy or we have to wrangle with outside influence. With nearly 1 million people living there, it won't be a cheap and easy fix.

All I assume as to why we're continuing the hard line is that NZ and Australia etc don't wish to upset the traditional indigenous elite (well sure I can understand those reasons in a politcal context after all one shouldn't rock the establishment too much) and the Commodore is not part of that elite, but we're not going to remedy the underlying corruption and coup culture without changes to ensure one vote means one fair vote for all rather than the elite view (pre-2006) that ethnic Fijian domination of the political system is a given (and others such as Indians are pretty much second class). Here in lies the problem at the moment, the western view of democracy in a purist sense versus exceptions that are made to ensure one group has control of the majority. I suspect the solution is somewhere in the middle and the elite may need to compomise a bit.

So I don't think at the moment there will be any real push to thumb the west and set up Chinese naval bases. After all that would also invite greater US interest and being so far from the mainland China would struggle to maintain a viable presence long term. The Chinese also know how fickle the Island nations are, after all after building a missile tracking station once a bit futher north, they had to abandon that once the politcal winds there changed! However Chinese influence in a non-military context can be good (economically) and bad at the same time (influence over Island nation policy, intelligence gathering presence & organised crime etc), so if it were up to me I wouldn't be shunning the Commodore because of these geo-political, crime and economic issues.

For those that are interested, here's a related article (although note that the NZ based author is publically anti the Commodore and was turned around from Fiji recently) but gives a good backgrounder on the wider issues.
http://www.islandsbusiness.com/isla...ID=4981/overideSkinName=issueArticle-full.tpl

 

[dragonfire]

Adding to the discussion

Mauritius a small island nation in the Indian Ocean Region has for quite some time now been courted by both India and China. It's a game of strategy, though now it has gone away from people's memories a few years back india had signed an agreement with Iran allowing Indian millitary operations to be deployed from Iran (flanking pakistan) and also India set up a small air base in Tajikistan with the same motive